ferretrx

Understanding Contrarianism and Bubbles

Right on David. When 50 million Frenchman agree on anything it's time to start looking at the other side of that trade; your point is valid --- it takes more than a herd to make a good trade.

I just heard on the Glenn Beck radio show a Professor Lynch { I missed his affiliation} make a bold prediction. In about one year,
Mexico will replace it's Peso with a new currency, he labled the
"Amero". Furthermore he claims the US will switch to the "Amero" as its main currency. Sounds very hard to believe; but I have seen so much in the markets that I don't eliminate any possibility.

Harley Revs Up Its Dividend, Still Room For Growth

Sorry to pick on you Tyler, but one thing lead to another. Yes, based upon its long-term record and its current P/E of only 12.5 X this year's recently downward revision to $ 3.74, HOG looks deceptively cheap. For over 25 years management has done a brilliant job reaching into the psyche of American men with inadequate feelings of masculinity. Increasingly these middle-aged fellows can now acheive the supplementation they require thanks to Viagra, Levitra and Cialis. All of which provide much more satisfaction.

With regard to HOG's earnings, the company has had to reach deeper and deeper into the barrel to maintain their long skein of continuous year-to-year with questionable accounting techniques as competition from other bike manufacturers has increased including several new entrants. HOG has become so common place that it has actually seen its cache slip.
Despite the combined efforts of Bernanke, Paulson, Congress, and
Bush, I believe we are headed into a recession. Those estimates in excess of $4.00 for 2008 will never see daylight in my opinion. In fact, I'll bet you they will decline from 2007.

It's too late to short this stock, but much too early to buy. It's
still a fine company and should be followed for a buying opportunity which I guess is at least a year away. Needless to say, I have no position in Harley.

Is Rona Trying to Build a Dynasty?

Wow! What an opportunity. Put me down for 1,000 shares to start.
I think this is a waste of space and don't understand how this merits
publication.

Stupid Closing Bell Tricks: Bear Stearn Alerian

Greg, You're on the money. Now I'm going to go back and read some of your previous commentary.
Years ago, I observed that on Wall St. new investments were greeted with skepticism. Eventually, it would win over some people to try them. As it gains adherents, it gradually becomes not only acceptable, but
mainstream. Next it becomes a religion. Then it becomes so exploited and preverted that the seeds are planted for its failure. When was the last time you heard a commercial for people looking for a mortgage with "less than perfect credit"? The investment houses create these products for their own benefit and
for the "institutional" accounts. Remember Zero Coupon Bonds? The big boys kept the income stream
and sold the principal. That gave them the opportunity to use those funds to buy more of the same and
increase their yield.
The Ferret