bond investor's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/101002/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/141340-piotroski-formula-yields-14-promising-investments?source=feed#comment-747438 747438 Fri, 06 Nov 2009 01:46:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/150374-prime-bomb-former-golden-child-hudson-city-bancorp-sees-prime-delinquencies-skyrocket?source=feed#comment-602723 602723
1. A loan portfolio has a "cure rate," in which *what's left* in the loan portfolio *after* certain loans are provisioned for and charged off is *healthier* than before. Hence projecting chargeoffs and provisioning to head upward indefinitely is not appropriate. In fact, many analysts looking at 3Q bank earnings thus far have concluded that the declines in loss reserves is a *positive*, not a negative, as it shows "what's left" in banks' loan portfolios has not needed as much provisioning as in prior quarters.

2. Your charts on delinquencies need more data series to do apples-to-apples comparisons. You compare HCBK's prime jumbo book to the FNM book of non-jumbo loans. I would be encouraged, not discouraged, that a portfolio of loans with a high original loan size was performing so well versus a portfolio of loans with average-to-low original loan size. While LTV is most important, we should be clear on the second-order effects, too, and you're not.

3. HCBK can easily earn its way through its loan losses. Its efficiency ratio is in the mid-20s, meaning that for every $1.00 in deposits, only about 25c goes to expenses. Contrast this to the bank sector average efficiency ratio in the low 60s. HCBK can keep offering better deposit rates and growing spread income. But you only focus on the loan book. More comprehensive analysis looks at the *future*, not just the present and past.

4. All stocks should be valued on both a relative and absolute basis. I agree that on an absolute basis, HCBK is facing some headwinds, but as 1-3 above explain, I think you are overplaying them. On a *relative* basis, HCBK is cheaper on a Price/Book basis to banks like WFC, with it Wachovia/Golden West option-ARM timebomb ticking inside its balance sheet. But perhaps you are also short WFC. If so, then we agree on something!

Disclosure: long HCBK, can't short specific stock like WFC 'cause all my money's in my IRA.]]> Sun, 26 Jul 2009 14:19:56 -0400
1. A loan portfolio has a "cure rate," in which *what's left* in the loan portfolio *after* certain loans are provisioned for and charged off is *healthier* than before. Hence projecting chargeoffs and provisioning to head upward indefinitely is not appropriate. In fact, many analysts looking at 3Q bank earnings thus far have concluded that the declines in loss reserves is a *positive*, not a negative, as it shows "what's left" in banks' loan portfolios has not needed as much provisioning as in prior quarters.

2. Your charts on delinquencies need more data series to do apples-to-apples comparisons. You compare HCBK's prime jumbo book to the FNM book of non-jumbo loans. I would be encouraged, not discouraged, that a portfolio of loans with a high original loan size was performing so well versus a portfolio of loans with average-to-low original loan size. While LTV is most important, we should be clear on the second-order effects, too, and you're not.

3. HCBK can easily earn its way through its loan losses. Its efficiency ratio is in the mid-20s, meaning that for every $1.00 in deposits, only about 25c goes to expenses. Contrast this to the bank sector average efficiency ratio in the low 60s. HCBK can keep offering better deposit rates and growing spread income. But you only focus on the loan book. More comprehensive analysis looks at the *future*, not just the present and past.

4. All stocks should be valued on both a relative and absolute basis. I agree that on an absolute basis, HCBK is facing some headwinds, but as 1-3 above explain, I think you are overplaying them. On a *relative* basis, HCBK is cheaper on a Price/Book basis to banks like WFC, with it Wachovia/Golden West option-ARM timebomb ticking inside its balance sheet. But perhaps you are also short WFC. If so, then we agree on something!

Disclosure: long HCBK, can't short specific stock like WFC 'cause all my money's in my IRA.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98230-some-true-safe-havens-are-still-surprisingly-undervalued?source=feed#comment-272204 272204 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

LHC generates only a fraction of the energy of cosmic rays hitting Earth all the time. If it was going to create a singularity from same rays, don't you think odds are higher one would have naturally hit Earth some time in the past zillion years?

Also, read your own article link: LHC helium was caused by good old-fashioned equipment failure.

I admire the level of detail in your analysis, and your candor in admitting that you've been short-term wrong on SWC and PAL.

Agree that hoarding instincts may drive the stocks higher. However, there is no similar inflationary force like 1980, but a debt-destruction-fuele... deflationary one.

Will have to check your GM sales data vs retail auto sales data. Initial reaction is that the platinum is still a closed-loop, and whether it sits on dealers' lots or in customers' garages, it's the actual auto production minus guzzlers' Pt reclaimed that matters.

Wish I knew if older cars used more or less Pt than new ones...


]]> Thu, 02 Oct 2008 20:02:39 -0400 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

LHC generates only a fraction of the energy of cosmic rays hitting Earth all the time. If it was going to create a singularity from same rays, don't you think odds are higher one would have naturally hit Earth some time in the past zillion years?

Also, read your own article link: LHC helium was caused by good old-fashioned equipment failure.

I admire the level of detail in your analysis, and your candor in admitting that you've been short-term wrong on SWC and PAL.

Agree that hoarding instincts may drive the stocks higher. However, there is no similar inflationary force like 1980, but a debt-destruction-fuele... deflationary one.

Will have to check your GM sales data vs retail auto sales data. Initial reaction is that the platinum is still a closed-loop, and whether it sits on dealers' lots or in customers' garages, it's the actual auto production minus guzzlers' Pt reclaimed that matters.

Wish I knew if older cars used more or less Pt than new ones...


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/52170-tips-nominal-yield-risky-real-after-tax-return?source=feed#comment-102929 102929 Fri, 23 Nov 2007 18:50:08 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/50759-it-s-october-should-we-be-buying?source=feed#comment-99726 99726
Rather than looking at the Fed, I would look at the Asian and Middle Eastern central banks and sovereign wealth funds, since they own and buy far more debt than the Fed. They'll tolerate currency declines in their U.S. holdings only for so long.... perhaps until just after the Beijing Olympics. At that point, look for weak U.S. demand to be exported to the rest of the world.]]> Wed, 24 Oct 2007 23:58:20 -0400
Rather than looking at the Fed, I would look at the Asian and Middle Eastern central banks and sovereign wealth funds, since they own and buy far more debt than the Fed. They'll tolerate currency declines in their U.S. holdings only for so long.... perhaps until just after the Beijing Olympics. At that point, look for weak U.S. demand to be exported to the rest of the world.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/51058-the-credit-crisis-is-really-a-risk-crisis?source=feed#comment-99725 99725
Saying it's a "risk crisis" instead of a "credit crisis" is just semantics. "Credit" is just another form of risk, like interest rate risk, reinvestment risk, inflation risk, etc.]]> Wed, 24 Oct 2007 23:34:19 -0400
Saying it's a "risk crisis" instead of a "credit crisis" is just semantics. "Credit" is just another form of risk, like interest rate risk, reinvestment risk, inflation risk, etc.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/49306-small-cap-growth-analyst-coverage-discount?source=feed#comment-99049 99049 Thu, 18 Oct 2007 01:02:02 -0400