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Retired Expat Investor at Mexican Beach
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  • HSBC: Undervalued Global Bank With 50% Upside And 5% Dividend [View article]
    Shedding underperforming asset sounds good, but as a result, HSBC may be too much concentrated in China/HK and London now? London looks bubbly, and the news of bankruptcy will keep coming from China for next few years.
    Mar 23 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HSBC: Undervalued Global Bank With 50% Upside And 5% Dividend [View article]
    Right, I did not pay attention to the dividend part. Now, this site called zolmax news http://zolmax.com is proven to be a joke.

    If somebody heard about HSBC actually downgrading HSBC, let me know.
    Thanks CH.
    Mar 22 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HSBC: Undervalued Global Bank With 50% Upside And 5% Dividend [View article]
    Hi,
    Does anybody know if this news is legitimate?
    "HSBC Holdings plc Downgraded by HSBC to Underperform"
    http://bit.ly/1dAqtc0

    Although the big downgrades by Credit Suisse etc for reduced dividend expectaion are understandable, I could not believe HSBC downgrading HSBC big time.

    Also, if anyone has some forecasts of what happens (US sanctions etc) if China decides to take Senkaku island, much appreciated.
    Thanks,
    Retired at Mex Beach
    Mar 22 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's Earnings Disappoint Again... What Now? [View article]
    Josh, Instead of just saying "4.9 bil$ was returned to shareholders", they could easily add, "XX bil$ of that amount was necessary to absorb dilution from option", right? That is bothering me.
    Feb 14 10:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's New Dividend [View article]
    If Chambers wants to continue pitching "returning xx bil$ to shareholders", they really have to disclose this internal clearly. Obviously they want to keep it vague.
    Feb 14 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's New Dividend [View article]
    Thank you very much, CA.
    I listened to the conf call, but had some interruptions and missed this part.
    Yes, my hope is that there may be some time-lug to see the reductions in share counts (between purchase and retirement?) , and will see the benefit on EPS in coming quarters. Diluted share count only came down this Q from 5357 to 5327 (approx USD660million). That is a poor result for using USD4bil for buyback.

    Will read the transcript to study again, but doubt I can find a clear answer.
    I suspect it is Chamber's modus operandi to hide details of impact from these buybacks and share/option-compensate. to make Cisco look more profitable than actually is, and keep paying managers from shareholder equity. Hope I am wrong.
    Feb 13 02:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's Earnings Disappoint Again... What Now? [View article]
    Josh,
    The way Mr. Chambers (and the CFO?) talk about the buybacks like "Proudly returning value to investors!" makes it difficult to take it as nicely as you do.

    If they are honest, they can disclose the option/share-compensation clearly with the buyback activity disclosure. Apparently,they are trying to hide it?
    Feb 13 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's Earnings Disappoint Again... What Now? [View article]
    Thanks Brad.
    Yes, Cisco has been like that (although my knowledge is limited). But, my understanding is that they increased buybacks substantially last year, and Chambers' is pitching "returning value to shareholders" hard every quarter since then, including this one.

    I am really beginning to feel Chambers is an arrogant who thinks investors, analysts and media are either fools or too timid to question him.
    Feb 13 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's New Dividend [View article]
    Chambers' pitch to shareholders recently is that about half(?) free cash flow will be returned to shareholders, mostly through buybacks. But, if most of buybacks are just needed to absorb new issuance for employee compensation/option, like years in the past, his pitch is almost fraudulent? Maybe technically not wrong, but cannot have CEO at the top who misleads shareholders intentionally like this.
    Feb 13 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Systems: A Good Opportunity To Buy? [View article]
    Hi,
    About your line "The company generates massive cash flows and pays substantial cash back to its investors", I want to believe it, but could you clear my doubt?

    Cisco says it repurchased 185 million shares last quarter. But, share counts only decreased by 57 million from 5351mil to 5294 mil. Is that because of new issuance for employee option?

    It looks like what Chambers say "returning value to shareholders" may be actually just additional compensation to the managers using shareholder equity? And if Cisco needs to buyback shares not for investors, but just to absorb new issuance for employee option, it really does not have massive free cash flow?

    Thanks,
    Retired Expat
    Feb 13 12:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's New Dividend [View article]
    Hi,
    Could somebody help me understand why Cisco's repurchase program did not help EPS much? Cisco says it repurchased 185 million shares last quarter. But, share counts only decreased by 57 million from 5351mil to 5294 mil. Is that because of new issuance for employee option? If so Chambers stressing he is returning value to shareholders by buyback again and again sounds so disingenuous and almost disgusts me.
    Thanks,
    Retired Expat
    Feb 13 11:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Add Cisco After Earnings? [View article]
    Could you help me understand why Cisco's repurchase program did not help EPS much? Cisco says it repurchased 185 million shares last quarter. But, share counts only decreased by 57 million from 5351mil to 5294 mil. Is that because of new issuance for employee option? If so Chambers stressing he is returning value to shareholders by buyback again and again sounds so disingenuous and almost disgusts me.
    Thanks,
    Retired Expat
    Feb 13 11:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's Earnings Disappoint Again... What Now? [View article]
    Hi,
    Could you help me understand why Cisco's repurchase program did not help EPS much? Cisco says it repurchased 185 million shares last quarter. But, share counts only decreased by 57 million from 5351mil to 5294 mil. Is that because of new issuance for employee option? If so Chambers stressing he is returning value to shareholders by buyback again and again sounds so disingenuous and almost disgusts me.
    Thanks,
    Retired Expat
    Feb 13 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vodafone: Value Without Verizon Wireless? [View article]
    No, no, this is very helpful. I am less worried now about their EM assets crashing with FX. Although I am still worried about the purchasing power of EM middle class. I will look into it, further.

    BTW. other guy mentioned about Claro/Slim below as EM model success. I have been in Mexico, and now in Costa Rica. Mexican government hit Slim to protect consumer, recently. In Costa Rica, Claro service sucks. Will check Claro in Panama next month. EM is not so easy as people think.
    Aug 31 08:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vodafone: Value Without Verizon Wireless? [View article]
    Thanks, looking forward to it.
    I am concerned, in addition to FX, their growth model may be;
    1. Buy wireless spectrum/license in EM, and introduce the same proven campaign.
    2. Enjoy high growth for a few years. But, sooner or later, the service will deteriorate due to increased users and untrained staff.
    3. Eventually, domestic incumbents catch up.

    Combined with high competition in EU, I am really wondering.
    Aug 31 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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