Enerplus: A Deeper Look At Earnings And Dividends [View article]
Apology for my somewhat unkind words. The only way to protect ourselves from the stupid talkers/traders is to analyze ourselves and establish our own views.
When ERF starts capturing normalized Nat Gas price, that should help payout/profitability / growth. Although I want the management to work on the cost side also.
Enerplus: A Deeper Look At Earnings And Dividends [View article]
I usually ignore talkers who do not read financials. But, to help young ones who are also panicking, here is a simplified picture.
159% is the adjusted payout, which is roughly calculated by (Dividend+Investment) / CashInflow Their regular Q3 payout is 33% which is roughly calculated by Dividend/Cash-Inflow.
Investments hit P/L as depreciation etc in the long run, so the management should reduce adjusted payout below 100% eventually. They have been increasing oil investment to bring oil/gas to 50 50. So, I accept current payout ratio (which is still drag down by old Nat Gas price contract), and welcome their indication to reduce investments and control costs next year. I think they announce 2013 plan in December.
Enerplus Declines After Reporting Q3 Loss And Reduced Production Compared To Q2 [View article]
I wanted a good 3Q, and understand the instant reaction. However, we should understand; 1. Lots of Nat Gas selling price was fixed in spring, and 3Q avg selling price was $2.2/Mff. If it were $3 level, we had $18Mil more revenue. Commodity market is now $3.5level. 2. They cleverly made a shift to Oil. As a result, we must tolerate things like $65.9mil impairment of Nat Gas assets considered non-priority. 3. With the Oil shift Capex, depreciation is $30mil/Q higher now. So, I regard slower growth from here is a good thing. Now that they already made 50/50 liq/gas balance, they should slow down Capex, and improve P/L B/S. 4. For young investors who may have freaked out by 159% adjusted payout, the regular payout ratio is 33%.
I will be patient, but the management must control costs and absolutely maintain dividend.
To buy a two-thirds stake in Sprint (S), Softbank (SFTBF.PK) would need to significantly increase its debt, which is already over $10B. While Japanese banks seem willing, a major loan would come just a few years after leverage-fueled acquisitions almost caused Softbank to collapse. And the new debt would be to purchase a company that hasn't made an annual profit since 2006. [View news story]
Unfortunately, I feel the beginning of Sprint's demise. After successfully selling out to Japanese at inflated price, current American management may just move on. Good Luck, Mr. Son.
Suddenly The Boat Is Getting Rocky For AT&T [View article]
Just saying "higher debt is bad" is too simplistic, don't you think? It is management 101 to optimize B/S looking at funding costs. The debt level is not that bad considering the relatively safe cashflow. Look at Softbank planning to borrow billions (junk) to get Sprint's mobile cashflow.
Alternatives you mentioned, mREITs (NIM), MLPs (possible tax change), Defense (Obama), have their own risks. Having said that, I myself sold some T on the Spring news. Will buy back on further weakness.
SoftBank's (SFTBF.PK) history suggests an acquisition of Sprint (S -1%) would mean big things for the U.S. mobile industry, notes Tero Kuittinen. Thanks to aggressive pricing, SoftBank managed to turn an also-ran Japanese carrier (the former Vodafone Japan) into the market's subscriber add leader shortly after acquiring it in '06, and has kept its lead since. Should AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ), who seem happy to maintain premium pricing, be worried? (more) [View news story]
Did some research about Softbank. They could undercut other Japanese carriers by using cheaper modem by Huawei, introducing ADSL and iPhone first, etc. These tactics do not work in USA.
I do not feel the deal is not much different from Japanese Banks directly financing Sprint for the mobile cashflow.
Suddenly The Boat Is Getting Rocky For AT&T [View article]
If I remember correctly, AT&T management was asked about the debt level in one of recent conferences. They said they prefer to add debt and reduce share counts, due to dividend vs intrest expense comparison.
So, on that point, this article is off. Otherwise, OK.
Why Softbank's Bid For Sprint Makes Sense [View article]
Thanks! I really feel what kind of guy he is, now. "Can't recall him not doing a deal..." He may be interesting, but I will stay away as an investment.
Why Softbank's Bid For Sprint Makes Sense [View article]
Thanks, Jefffrey. I do not follow Softbank, and did not notice the unrealized investment gains. He seems to have invested in Zynga among others, proving he is a gambler.
Wondering whether he has enough ammunition/commitment to wage war against VZ/T. CLWR 70% jump won't help. Why they let the news leaked?
Why Softbank's Bid For Sprint Makes Sense [View article]
I looked Softbank financial, and they are not that "well funded" in spite of the media talk. Softbank stock down 16% tonight after the talk, and now I see "Nothing decided" news release. Can they back down?
Why Softbank's Bid For Sprint Makes Sense [View article]
I did not have time to check yet. But, do you know whether Softbank is really well funded to compete with AT&T and VZ? Market Cap does not look that large.
Facebook Worth $15? Seems A Little Premature Considering The Value Of The Space [View article]
To FB believers (Investors or Employees),
Could you let me know. Q1. Do you believe that Zuckerberg is a young media-shy genious visionary, just working behind closed doors to come up with new things?
Q2. Can you refute the notion that he may be a Ponzi-like opportunist who successfully took advantage of 1.Underemployed programmers willing to work hard for the dream of IPO rich. 2.Media and Wall st. hungry for new story, preferably by a young American from Harvard. 3.Fear (appearance of unpopularity, peer pressure…)and Greed (looking for girls, job leads…) of society.
Q3. By the way, has he ever explained how he came up with the Social Network vision? (I can.)
I do not follow FB closely, and I am not short. Just curious.
Enerplus: A Deeper Look At Earnings And Dividends [View article]
When ERF starts capturing normalized Nat Gas price, that should help payout/profitability / growth. Although I want the management to work on the cost side also.
Good Luck.
Enerplus: A Deeper Look At Earnings And Dividends [View article]
But, to help young ones who are also panicking, here is a simplified picture.
159% is the adjusted payout, which is roughly calculated by
(Dividend+Investment) / CashInflow
Their regular Q3 payout is 33% which is roughly calculated by
Dividend/Cash-Inflow.
Investments hit P/L as depreciation etc in the long run, so the management should reduce adjusted payout below 100% eventually. They have been increasing oil investment to bring oil/gas to 50 50. So, I accept current payout ratio (which is still drag down by old Nat Gas price contract), and welcome their indication to reduce investments and control costs next year. I think they announce 2013 plan in December.
Enerplus Declines After Reporting Q3 Loss And Reduced Production Compared To Q2 [View article]
However, we should understand;
1. Lots of Nat Gas selling price was fixed in spring, and 3Q avg selling price was $2.2/Mff. If it were $3 level, we had $18Mil more revenue. Commodity market is now $3.5level.
2. They cleverly made a shift to Oil. As a result, we must tolerate things like $65.9mil impairment of Nat Gas assets considered non-priority.
3. With the Oil shift Capex, depreciation is $30mil/Q higher now. So, I regard slower growth from here is a good thing. Now that they already made 50/50 liq/gas balance, they should slow down Capex, and improve P/L B/S.
4. For young investors who may have freaked out by 159% adjusted payout, the regular payout ratio is 33%.
I will be patient, but the management must control costs and absolutely maintain dividend.
Suddenly The Boat Is Getting Rocky For AT&T [View article]
Suddenly The Boat Is Getting Rocky For AT&T [View article]
Even if all 8B is used to pay the debt, liabilities to equity is still 3 to 1.
I am not writing off Sprint. But, let's not overly excited.
To buy a two-thirds stake in Sprint (S), Softbank (SFTBF.PK) would need to significantly increase its debt, which is already over $10B. While Japanese banks seem willing, a major loan would come just a few years after leverage-fueled acquisitions almost caused Softbank to collapse. And the new debt would be to purchase a company that hasn't made an annual profit since 2006. [View news story]
After successfully selling out to Japanese at inflated price, current American management may just move on.
Good Luck, Mr. Son.
Suddenly The Boat Is Getting Rocky For AT&T [View article]
It is management 101 to optimize B/S looking at funding costs.
The debt level is not that bad considering the relatively safe cashflow. Look at Softbank planning to borrow billions (junk) to get Sprint's mobile cashflow.
Alternatives you mentioned, mREITs (NIM), MLPs (possible tax change), Defense (Obama), have their own risks.
Having said that, I myself sold some T on the Spring news. Will buy back on further weakness.
SoftBank's (SFTBF.PK) history suggests an acquisition of Sprint (S -1%) would mean big things for the U.S. mobile industry, notes Tero Kuittinen. Thanks to aggressive pricing, SoftBank managed to turn an also-ran Japanese carrier (the former Vodafone Japan) into the market's subscriber add leader shortly after acquiring it in '06, and has kept its lead since. Should AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ), who seem happy to maintain premium pricing, be worried? (more) [View news story]
They could undercut other Japanese carriers by using cheaper modem by Huawei, introducing ADSL and iPhone first, etc.
These tactics do not work in USA.
I do not feel the deal is not much different from Japanese Banks directly financing Sprint for the mobile cashflow.
Suddenly The Boat Is Getting Rocky For AT&T [View article]
So, on that point, this article is off. Otherwise, OK.
Why Softbank's Bid For Sprint Makes Sense [View article]
"Can't recall him not doing a deal..."
He may be interesting, but I will stay away as an investment.
Why Softbank's Bid For Sprint Makes Sense [View article]
I do not follow Softbank, and did not notice the unrealized investment gains. He seems to have invested in Zynga among others, proving he is a gambler.
Wondering whether he has enough ammunition/commitment to wage war against VZ/T. CLWR 70% jump won't help.
Why they let the news leaked?
Why Softbank's Bid For Sprint Makes Sense [View article]
Softbank stock down 16% tonight after the talk, and now I see "Nothing decided" news release.
Can they back down?
Why Softbank's Bid For Sprint Makes Sense [View article]
But, do you know whether Softbank is really well funded to compete with AT&T and VZ?
Market Cap does not look that large.
Facebook Worth $15? Seems A Little Premature Considering The Value Of The Space [View article]
Could you let me know.
Q1. Do you believe that Zuckerberg is a young media-shy genious visionary, just working behind closed doors to come up with new things?
Q2. Can you refute the notion that he may be a Ponzi-like opportunist who successfully took advantage of
1.Underemployed programmers willing to work hard for the dream of IPO rich.
2.Media and Wall st. hungry for new story, preferably by a young American from Harvard.
3.Fear (appearance of unpopularity, peer pressure…)and Greed (looking for girls, job leads…) of society.
Q3. By the way, has he ever explained how he came up with the Social Network vision? (I can.)
I do not follow FB closely, and I am not short. Just curious.
iPhone 5 Will Further Hit Verizon's Margins [View article]
Buy both AAPL & VZ, and you are set.