Christian

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    • Fri Apr 18th 10:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Zillow Aims to Disrupt Lending Market With Its Mortgage Marketplace
      Disrupt the lending market? Isn't it essentially in shambles already? I think we're just dropping an ice cube in an already boiling-over pot.
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    • Mon Apr 14th 16:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Making Starbucks Exciting Again
      Dirty's post is excellent. I'm long on SBUX (accumulating shares at this level) and LOVE Starbuck's. I don't mind paying $3-$5 for a latte/mocha/what-have-... and have been a loyal customer for many years.

      But reading the previous post does have me agreeing: Starbuck's may have become too "fast food". I don't feel the magic I did long ago when I first discovered my "latte" fixation. I'm still a regular customer, but wonder where the brand is going. Maybe the stores get too crowded to deliver the "coffee shop" experience. Pleasantness aside, a really good barista ought to know your name and the details on the coffee nirvana they serve.

      Too many stores - when there's three stores within eyeshot standing outside a Starbuck's at a mall in SoCal, there's no wonder the employees can't keep track of the regulars and the drive-by's. I do like convenience, but would not mind having to drive a few more minutes to get to a shop that can recollect who I am and what I love to drink.

      The changes Howard are pursuing are good, and I'm willing to purchase shares this cheap to invest in the roadmap. Hopefully he can rediscover the small Starbuck's coffee shop "magic".

      Think I'm gonna get me a grande white mocha...
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    • Sun Mar 30th 23:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Upside to Falling Prices: Housing Affordabilty Index Reaches 4-Year High
      I agree - affordability HAS increased. However, do I think we've hit an inflection point for another "housing bull market"?

      Not by a long shot - I live in SoCal.
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    • Tue Mar 11th 16:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Real Issues Behind Declining Home Equity Levels
      It was a homeowner's choice to sign on the bottom line for the liability of the mortgage. So I think it's also a choice for the homeowner to walk away, and realize the foreclosure implications of doing so (credit record hit, future mortgage risk, etc.). The lender is also a fault here for not doing the proper homework in ensure the buyer has enough werewithal to survive paying off the mortgage.

      What I DON'T think is right is talk of "bailing out" the buyers who are in over their head. I'm sure there are some wonderful exceptions to this stereotype, but both the buyer and lender are a fault - bailing them out only ensures that the prudent public foots the bill.
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    • Wed Mar 5th 18:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bernanke's Message Can't Be Any Clearer
      I think the housing issues are essentially fixed (tongue in cheek) - people have begun to stop buying homes as speculative investments, lenders have staved off (for the most part) loaning $$$ unscrupulously, and the never-ending debt trail known as home equity loans to finance a way-of-life is coming to an end.

      What is ailing the "industry" now is the consequences of these poisons. The ailing effects like massive inventory, drop off in sales, and people up to their arses in debt. To try and "cure" these consequences and not reinforce the proper loan processes is just as many people have said: you're giving a drug to a rehabilitating addict.

      The Fed needs to guide the lenders (okay, the banks - lord knows where the mortgages have gone beyond that) on what it can do and what it can't do to work out this mess. It's going to get far worse in the coming years, but throwing money at the problem isn't the solution - that's just a "get out of free" ticket for those that just need to go to jail.

      Hearing things like "principal write-down" makes me wonder why I stopped house shopping in the fall of 2006, deeming the market too expensive. I should have just purchased that overpriced home back then. The Fed would have my back, forgiven the price I paid - voila! "principal write-down", and I'll end up owning just the same amount had I purchased the house now, a year-and-a-half later.... except I would have lived in it since.

      You sign on the bottom line - you're liable for it. Loan sharks of yore had a more colorful way of dealing with people that didn't pay up.
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    • Mon Sep 10th 11:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Outlook for The Market, The Fed and Housing
      Quote: "It seems unlikely to me that 4% of the US residential home market in trouble is unlikely to cause a significant economic slowdown unless this effect becomes magnified through reports in the media." I disagree - the risk is much more significant that you're writing here. You're right, it's only 4%, but it's MARKET prices for homes that will cause the consumer to slow down spending habits - and there's the risk. If you've got 100 shares of stock that 100 people bought at $100, but 4 of them need to sell. If the last guy sells at $50, that has MARKET repercussions on the value of the holdings that the other 96 people own.

      Same thing with the housing market - it's 4%, yes, but the actions of that 4% and of the various speculators in the market will affect the rest of the homeowners across the country.

      I'm sure homebuilders will do well long term - it's just a question of how long and how severe the intermediate trough will last while we slog thru this housing mess.
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    • Tue Aug 21st 12:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Getting the Real Estate Crisis Right
      We all know real estate is cyclical, and most know that this cycle is nothing anyone has seen before. I'll agree with Malkiel - magic has been rampant (I'm here in SoCal), and right now (and always has been), it is governed by simple SUPPLY AND DEMAND.

      Fundamentally, what changed to cause the big run up? I don't think there was a massive "religous revolution" that 5-6% of the population all decided within a few years time that being in a house was the place to be. Something that this nominal percentage (4 million households?) hasn't even devoted a passing thought to in the last several decades. Low interest rates, and the classic: I gotta buy - housing's going nowhere but up. Supply was ramping up, but demand was enormous, the "next big thing."

      In its nascent stages, it was quite fun. But as the prices ascended out of reach of pretty much everyone, more people had to resort to adjustables, so-called "liar loans", and (gasp!) option loans. I'm not sure why the comment was made about the U.S. being "different" with regards to adjustables. Many of my relatives still can't fathom why I'm planning to put 20% down (on a 30yr fixed) on my next home purchase (it won't be anytime soon).

      Now the party's over, foreclosures are up, interest rates are up, and lending has pretty much ground to a standstill. Add to this mix people who we expect HAVE to sell their home (relocation, job loss, illness, etc.), we've got a very different supply/demand relationship.

      What I submit is that we do have a correction, and this is in absence of an outright recession. Home values are coming down, and yup, it'll take some time. I don't think we'll reach huge levels of depreciation (maybe in some of the "bubble" markets), but there needs to be a reckoning between what's available, and what people want or can buy.

      One more thing: a house shouldn't be considered an investment - maybe a commercial building is. In the past several years, yes - plunking down several thousand a month on a vacant place for 10-20% annual growth may be a nice "investment."... But in the "norm" of recent decades past, a couple of thousand a month for an ROI that keeps in line with inflation ain't an investment - it a place you call "home."
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    • Wed Aug 15th 13:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Existing Home Sales Report Beats Expectations
      Concur - I've stopped looking at median prices as we're now in the market for a home in SoCal (not buying anytime soon), and from monitoring the listings for a year now, prices have indeed dropped.

      The median skews the picture, as some people know, since it doesn't take into account the mix of homes sold during the period.

      Last year, around this time, we were looking at 2500-2600 sq ft homes at the $700k to $800k range. Now you can routinely fine almost 3000 sq ft homes for mid $600's. It seems to have accelerated to the downside in the past few months.
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