Vegasjoe

AIG: The New Math?

AIG, Almost Investment Garbage, needs to keep its investment grade rating so raising capital makes sense. No institution I know of cares about a 2% dividend when the principal goes down 20%!

Dividend Analysis: Wachovia Corporation

So what does your discounted cash flow guess machine suggest now?

How Cheap Are U.S. Bank Stocks?

Big banks are toast; earnings compression will keep prices down, and valuations will be lower too for financial assets. Lots of consolidation and mergers in next 24 months.

A Debate Over Citi

C will see 15 or less before it sees $40. Remember 1990 at $8, all becasue of the S&L voodoo economics, and poor third world country loans. Olstein was once so sure about Tenet Healthcare at $10-12 a few years back and it now is just hitting $5.50.
We are in the 4th-5th inning of writedowns. More dilution will be coming to C shareholders.

Regional Bank Failures: The Next Shoe to Drop

I am seeking regional bank stocks to short; anyone have any juicy ones ripe for the kill?

Is OPEC Killing Itself?

OPEC could care less about us; our strategic petreoleum reserve is topped out; Israel is thinking of taking Lebanon and has the Palestians fighting each other now so opportunity knocks; Syria has amassed its troops at the border, and will last about 48 hours against Israel; we have sent a carrier over there; Iran may mine the Strait making oil hard to find its way out. Iran cannot win in Iraq and knows it; the US cannot win in IRAQ and knows it; Iran fears a John McCain Presidency, just remembering that when they humiliated Jimmy Carter, they got Reagan and won't make that mistake again. A settlerment is nearing. There is plent of oil, especially the kind that costs $30/barrel to mine. They are plenty of refineries and they are cutting back due to poor business: check out VLO if you doubt me, as they have 17 and want to unload one to petrobras now in Aruba. The price will come down to $90 or less as soon as the geo politics are solved, by September.

The Visa IPO: Taking a Wait and See Approach

If you have a 3 year or longer horizon, this is a great entry point! It will trade at $200 in 3 years or less. If you are a trader, you will see choppy waters short term; after all, all the banks in deep capital need will sell to raise capital.

Bear Stearns: Where We Are and Some Little Known Facts

Where is Bear's senior management on this? Why is the SEC and JPM and the federal gov't made the scapegoat?
Bear's management screwed Bear's employees! They have a fiduciary duty so sue them! Is Bear worth more than $2? Call Warren Buffett or Wilber Ross or do a leveraged esop. Steal the company back!

Financials and Retail: Not as Dire as They Seem

This credit binge and deleveraging just goes to show that CEOs and other senior management at these institutions are grossly overpaid, never had an original idea, and rationalize the meltdown of their own stock as "everyone else was doing it, therefore, it must have been ok!" But then, when fired, the gutless Board's give them hundreds of millions for long and loyal service! Go figure! Who doI send my resume to at C, MER, WM, etc.....Commerical real estate is next! Goodbye regional bank CEOs.

Ethanol Update: Crush Spread Plunges, Bush Expresses Concern

Grass fed beef is better for you, not corn fed; I am just pissed my tequila costs more since all the Mexican farmers trashed growing Agave for corn! Maybe corn based ethanol will sell better at Frat parties? Grain alcohol and punch! Oh the days!

Ambac's Announcement is a Joke; Disagreeing with Whitman on Monolines

Whitney is right on; Whitman has lost his marbles, and ought to retire. Buffett is laughing all the way to the bank; and I suppose, so is Wilber Ross, soon, if not now. Banks have little or no capital left to do anything with any risk; Why great value investors would try to resusitate a dead carcus in the desert is beyond me!

Visa IPO: Large and in Charge

When is the IPO? October, 2008? Why has the Discover spin off failed? Why is AMEX stuck in the tank? Yes, M/C has been a great success, but it has executed. Can Visa's management?

Chesapeake Energy: Why Are Analysts Consistently Off the Mark?

I have heard more than one institutional manager comment that Aubrey and senior management pig out at the options alter as much as the worst tech stock offenders; any truth?

Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Q4 2007 Earnings Call Transcript

Let's see: the price for corn is increasing for them from $3.66-3.86 in 2007 to $4.20 in '08; contracts to deliver product seem stuck at $1.72 to 1.92; the company financial strength has been infected by the CDO meltdown virus in their variable aution rate securities; and while the industry is somewhat the beneficiary of political winds, the economics are still not within reach to drive sequential earnings growth of any consequence. What am I missing? The stock got hammered last week.

Read This Before Buying E*Trade

I am confused about all the bantering, however, what did Citadel purchase? I thought they bought it all, RV and boats, included, for 27 cents on the dollar? Is this what is left that they didn't buy? Regardless, E*Trade's senior management, dating back to the IPO days, has been less than transparent, historically, and if everything was all right, why would dozens of suitors be rebuffed who wanted to buy the brokerage side? Certainly, a bidding process would have garnered more than a reasonable valuation? It is a shame! Especially for small investors, and potentially, brokerage customers. Another black box investment that probably has more cockroaches in the woodpile.