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  • Bitcoin Part 2: Valuation? [View article]
    Shades of Cryptonomicon. Will safe net money ever replace paper or paper-denominated virtual money? Will Bitcoin be the one, or just a casualty on the way?

    If I knew, or even had an inkling, I'd invest. But I don't.
    Nov 13 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why QE Is Not Inflationary [View article]
    OK,I'll bite:

    " All I ask is that anyone fretting about the coming inflation make an explicit statement about why supply won't be able to keep up with demand, what, exactly, those transfer payment recipients will buy that someone won't be happy to sell them at about its current price. "

    What is going to inflate is the things that retirees need: health care, elder care, stuff like that. Thousands of new retirees will be competing for these services every day. Food could inflate. Housing is inflating to the extent that housing is recovering:

    housing recovery = inflation.
    Nov 4 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why QE Is Not Inflationary [View article]
    Mostly OK, but this:

    " These "I only pay cash" types are financial Onanists, spilling their seed on the ground and declaring themselves virtuous for their unrequested celibacy. (Ever notice how smug they are? Self-righteousness is its own reward.) Forgive them; they know not what they do."

    Please. I have enough cash to buy whatever I need and then some. I'm not rich; I just don't need more of much of anything except groceries, etc. I'm not alone; many of my friends are the same. I would borrow to invest or start a business if I had a plan that I believed in, but I don't. I'm not really a cashonly fundie; it's just my current situation.
    Nov 4 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why QE Is Not Inflationary [View article]
    The QE is inflationary! The problem just might be that the environment was so deflationary that QE just stopped the deflation, and the two forces are locked in stasis.

    My take: When housing crashed, it was the invisible hand of the market trying to do what it should do: force American prices down to the same levels as the people that are competing for our middle class jobs. If I could live in a 90k house, I could afford to work for 12 bucks an hour. But the government intervened to stabilize the price of housing, and so we lose more jobs. The mortgage industry is like a ratchet - prices can go up easily, but making them go down breaks the gears.
    Nov 1 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why QE Is Not Inflationary [View article]
    If the money was getting out to people, it would be inflationary.
    Nov 1 06:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why QE Is Not Inflationary [View article]
    Schmiddy: Perhaps there was tremendous deflationary pressure and QE is countering that. Then QE would be inflationary, but the inflation itself is being countered by the deflationary pressure, maintaining a kind of stasis.

    I'm with BuyLOw on the wages. Without increasing wages, it's hard to get more money into people's hands.
    Nov 1 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Check For Peter Schiff [View article]
    MyHusbandsWife:Socialism and capitalism are a blend of individual and group interests, and as such, are always combined. Remove the "ism" and it is just a discussion of what we do as individuals vs what we do as a group.

    Housing will always be regulated; the banks, insurance companies, and zoning boards will always determine what is best for you and me. Congress has a hand in that and so does everybody else, from the city planning commission to the federal government. Laissez-faire doesn't work very well.

    Societies also fail when economies that are required to expand can't do so. Our current design requires us to continue to expand in a zero-sum game; we could engineer a society that can survive without expanding. The trouble with social engineering is that the government isn't any good at it; the competing interests won't allow it. Yet society will be engineered, either at random, or intentionally, by government or corporations. Right now it's a combination. Let the government relax it's hold, and it's laissez-faire all over.

    The US crisis was a failure to design systems properly., and (perhaps) God's way of showing us that what we're doing is not sustainable.
    Nov 1 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why QE Is Not Inflationary [View article]
    RS says "Govt spending ... while doing nothing to increase the production of goods and services."

    When I go to a national park, that is a tremendous service. When the Navy wastes a pirate, that is a service. Food stamps cause people to buy food that they might not buy otherwise, causing the grocery system to create a product... and so on. You and I might not agree on what government should do, but they do produce goods and services, both directly and indirectly.
    Nov 1 10:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Check For Peter Schiff [View article]
    Yep, you got it. We had hegemony after WW2, and we got used to it. We lost the hegemony and can only sustain our lifestyle by borrowing. When we stop, there will be massive social disorder.
    Oct 31 04:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Check For Peter Schiff [View article]
    CA. Competing directly with newly-minted millionaires from the Facebook IPO. Doing what I do I can't make much of a living anywhere else. If you don't have a windfall, you have to pay too much and pray that inflation trivializes your mortgage. Until then, you're at the mercy of the system. Prices have gone up but wages haven't, so my mortgage isn't trivialized even though I have heaps of equity.
    Oct 31 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Check For Peter Schiff [View article]
    db: I have an iPhone 5,Apple TV, 50meg internet and the whole megillah. I'd trade it all for an easy mortgage anytime. Of course, I live in a place where a modest house costs a mil. Mine is a bit more than modest, but no McMansion either. That house that you describe would run 2.5 mil.

    $650 won't even get you a trailer park here or a studio apartment. That was the 1970 price for a 1000 ft2 house on a slab.

    Agreed many things are better (cars, dentistry, computers, tv, etc). Housing is far too expensive; if I had to buy now, I wouldn't have a prayer. 18 years in and my mortgage still consumes 40% of my take home pay.
    Oct 31 03:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Check For Peter Schiff [View article]
    Shareholders unite: True enough. If your income goes up, you can float more debt, qualify for a bigger mortgage, etc. But if you had to borrow every month to make your bills, your banker would be unlikely to loan you more. It looks like a split decision to me.

    Just to keep this on the investment subject: I invest as if the US is on an unsustainable course, but not ready to crash and burn yet. Still, I keep something in case a black swan event takes us down. The energy boom might help us sustain, and possibly even recover some.
    Oct 31 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Check For Peter Schiff [View article]
    With that $200, I could have paid my monthly mortgage in 1970. I would rather have a mechanical telephone and an easy mortgage than a powerful computerized telephone and a difficult mortgage.
    Oct 31 02:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Check For Peter Schiff [View article]
    wyo: Some moves towards socialism are inevitable in an increasingly complex society with no more frontier, so I'm not so sure. It certainly has helped push in that direction.

    But I take exception to the emotional baggage that the word "socialism" carries. We do some things in common and some things as individuals. Without the emotional words (socialism/capitalism) we could talk rationally about what things we do as a group and what things we do as individuals.As society grows more complex, the group things would increase relative to the individual.
    Oct 31 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Check For Peter Schiff [View article]
    Try the 60s and 70s up to the oil shock (76/77). Traditional valuations, where you could only qualify for a mortgage if you could pay mortgage, tax, and insurance with (I think it was) 50% of your take home pay. The market would tank if it were held to that standard today.
    Oct 31 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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