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arbtrdr

arbtrdr
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  • Time To Sell Enterprise Products [View article]
    Biggest question in all this is where is our esteemed author to defend the comments made here.
    May 26 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Enterprise Products [View article]
    Ross - Check your figures. EPD paid out far more than $82M and retianed far more than $25M. Actual numbers - DCF $1069M including specials. Retained earnings $418m Distributions paid $650M +/- No idea where you got your numbers but obviously not from EPD.
    May 25 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Enterprise Products [View article]
    Actually you can have both - take the discount DRIP and sell those units the next or even same day.
    May 25 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell Enterprise Products [View article]
    Interesting comment with some errors.

    There are a number of MLPs with lower yields.

    Elliot has already indicated your .01 increase per quarter forever comment is not correct. EPD and Mike Creel have repeatedly stated to me that EPD will evaluate the distribution rate once a year and on an annual basis the BOD will declare distributions for EITHER a special distribution or an increase in the rate depending on capital needs. I would guess this year we will get a special distribution in either August or November of .01 or .02. Your assumptions going forward are flawed.

    My question is has anything fundamentally changed with EPD? The answer is no. EPD also is in the albolutely wonderful position that if interest rates rise and alternative investments sport higher yields it is certainly capable of increasing its distribution by a much higher CAGR.

    Last, where else does one go? SO is increasing its distribnution at a slower CAGR than EPD with little possibility of an increasing rate. MO is a bit higher in CAGR but the overhang of investing in tobacco and those uncertainties. Utilities has limited yearly raises in dividends while EPD could raise by 8-210% quite easily for a few years.

    As to recapture - most long term holders have a basis at or close to zero. Thus would pay taxes at ordinary income rates less any passive losses they carry forward and the expected capital gains. In my case I have an average purchase price of about $20 with $10 in loss carry forwards so would pay about $2.60 in the recapture and a LTCG of about $15. Not awful but it certainly reduces the $$ to invest going forward.

    Mr. Grossi - comments? have yet to see a reply from you.

    I to am happy to stand with the Duncan family into the future. Thier disciplined growth and visionary view of exporting is transforming the business for midstream MLPs in America.

    PS as to your comment as to the Monterrey shale predictions going down 95% - who has been drilling there. Was the original number based on exploration or seculation? What is the current production from that area?
    ARB
    May 25 01:52 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ampio's Ampion - Strong Positives With Clear Risks [View article]
    The manufacturing facility is discussed on the AMPE website and is near the HQ in Colorado.

    Why not use saline? Because there is no long term benefit. Saline has a lubricating effect (in very oversimplified terms) in the short term but the study showed Ampion provide significant long term improvement in movement and reduction in pain. The FDA required Ampoin to be used in comparison to Saline and then requested ALL of the Ampion data which showed the improvement in the run on study.

    Fuerstein has distorted and told simple lies as you acknowledge.
    May 24 06:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Products Partners Will Continue To Grow [View article]
    I have reinvested all my distributions for 20 years and put a big additional investment into EPD about 5 years ago. I will probably start paying LTCG $$ in either this year or the next but that hit is fine with me as it lowers the recapture of depreciation that is otherwise taxed as ordinary income.

    Also I did not pay $5 but actually $39. Leviathon then split and was bought out by Gulf Terra. Gulf Terra split and was bought out by EPD. Thus lots of units and an adjusted cost of about $5 on the initial purchase.
    May 23 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Enterprise Products Partners' Distributable Cash Flow As Of 1Q 2014 [View article]
    laChic - You comment on P/E ratio suggests you might have benefitted from looking a bit deeper into the value of EPD.

    Ron - my only nitpick is IDRs are not typically 48%. Not even ETP or KMP pay at a 48% rate on all of their DCF. IDRs (which I agree can be onerous) begin at 2% and typically are stepped up as distributions increase so that even well after getting to an incremental 48% rate the blended rate is significantly lower.

    EPD operates using a business model unlike any other MLP in retaining more DCF than most MLPs earn. Accordingly they issue few new units except through their discount DRIP program. This certainly gives them flexability.
    May 23 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Products Partners Will Continue To Grow [View article]
    The author apparently has a very small MLP universe as there are some 25 MLPs with unit prices up more than EPD. Also suggesting that exporting of ethane and other products is the future growth driver for EPD is a bit myopic. EPD is a vertically integrated company from gathering to the customer. It is showing significant growth in all areas inlcuding significant new pipeline and processing profits.

    The plan for EPD is certainly different than almost every other MLP in retaining huge amounts of cash and thus issuing very few new units and only a limited amount of debt. This has the effect of increasing the profits on a per unit basis and has raised the unit price for EPD above the average for the MLP midstream universe. Of course EPD have difficulty in moving the needle as Bruce said because it is so huge. Thus EPD has elected to review their distribution only once a year as to the rate and only then whether to increase it or offer a special additional distribution increase.

    While not all like this policy - EPD has publically said they will continue and those that do not like it should invest elsewhere - the policy does give EPD dry powder when interest rates rise to raise their distribution by a higher amount to protect their unit price. They also have avoided almost all offerings since the Duncan family buys new stock with their distributions and EPD offers a 5% discount on DRIPs raising their effective payout a bit. EPD is the slow and stready one.

    Will be interesting this July to see if the board offers an additional raise. Personally would not be surprised to see a .01-.02 special to be paid in August or November. I am also happy to see ratained earnings and a lower payout making the hit on my capital account a bit easier. EPD has created a huge amount of value per unit with us old time holders having paid well under $5. nice and steady.
    May 22 11:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allocating To Energy Infrastructure? Selecting The Best Master Limited Partnership Index Will Drive Total Return [View article]
    The only question would be the statement that future distribution growth determines the return. This is true in a general sense but has problems when companies are in two situations. first is when a company is in a fundamental transformation like ETP a couple years ago. It traded at a 9% yield with no distribution growth. The yield acted as a floor for the unit price until the changes (some 20 of them) allowed for CAGR growth and investors were rewarded.

    The other difference will be if a MLP with a very low yiled like ETE or MMP has either of two things happen. A stumble with DCF numbers no matter how small is quickly punished. MWE is a good example of this when the cut their distribution growth to .01 from .03 per quarter. Also a change in interest rates will put pressure on MLPs from alternative choices like bonds, REITs, CDs and preferred when yields go up. Only those MLPs with high distribution coverage will be able to increase more in order to provide a higher yield and keep the unit price up. This for example would bode well for MMP and EPD and put more pressure on KMP.
    May 21 12:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Products Partners: Distribution Growth Potential Is Underestimated [View article]
    Stock Gamer. EPD "could" provide additional increases to distributions. Agreed. Did you miss the part where they have said they will not! EPD will continue for the forseeable future to increase at .01 per quarter and take a look each year (July/August) for the possibility of a special distribution.

    You also did not notice the reinvestment by the Duncan family and the 5% dfistcount of DRIP purchases that encourage reinvestment and resulted in some $2B in less units being issued in the general market.

    Arguing that EPD could support an 8% CAGR is fine, but when the company has said over and over thery are not going to operate that way the point is moot. They prefer not to issue many new units outside of the DRIP and have controlled growth. This according to EPD provides then with flexability to raise as needed to protect the unit price (to cover problems cause by rising interest rates). The () my words.
    May 19 08:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Fast-Growth Midstream MLPs For Outstanding Total Returns [View article]
    Absolutely agree but how many years of 20% CAGR increases does one require in order to maintain a unit price much less in an increasing interest rate environment. I understand PXSP but at a 2% yield how much does the distribution need to increase in order to accomodate say a required 4% yield. Would that not be a 100% increase in the distribution? OK, at a 20% CAGR that takes about 3 1/2 years to get a 3.9% yield and that does not include what happens when the IDRs start to kick in making increases more difficult. Think you modeling needs a bit of work here. Some of the higher yielders even with a lower CAGR will pay out far more $$ and provide greater downside risk when rates change.
    May 18 08:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Intelligence For MLP Investors [View article]
    An excellent report as always. The analyst reports are coming out now and have some interesting comments or lack of same. MS raised the target on EPD from $70 to $76 even though it was over $70 for a while and even after blowout earnings by ETP made no comment at all. Hmmmmm. Should we really be looking seriously at those reports and price targets?

    Also a question - the new smaller MLPs has several interesting factors including volatility, a low GP split and very small market cap. Wonder how they would fare if we go back say 3 years or more and compare them with the larger more mature MLPs with both IDRs and no IDRs.
    May 18 08:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: The Warrants Are Clearly Not 'Trashy' [View article]
    Even the EPD GP buyout had a 5% dilutive issue. Ditto for MWE as well. A bit of short term pain for longer term gain.
    May 18 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons I Draw From The Midstream MLP YTD Numbers And LTM Distribution Growth [View article]
    Factoids - Great article. Am catching up after 2 weeks beong totally disconnected via any electronic device. Refreshing but now back to work.

    My only comment is how do you properly evaluate EPD in comparision to the other MLPs when EPD has its own completely different agenda in regards to distributions?

    EPD will retain more cash than most MLPs have in DCF! This ceratinly makes for a lower CAGR but provides more of a unit growth story as less units issued and also when interests rates finally move up (my prediction was last year and have no idea today as to when) EPD is capable of increasing their distribution to offset any pressure from alternative choices in a higher rates environment. I note that I am not aware of any other MLP retaining anywhere near the percentage of DCF as EPD.
    May 17 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer/Susser Holdings Deal: What You Need To Know [View article]
    Ray - ETP planned to exit the retail business immediately, but got no good offers. Am involved in an operation that treid to buy some 200 outlets and ETP simply would not talk at a price anywhere near what our group would pay. They wanted to sell to one buyer. ETP also sort of got retail almost for free. The SXL stuff was what they wanted and they got it on the cheap. This is a creative way to seperate retail.

    A comment - Why can't ETP just do a simple transaction. Seems the business structure there gets ever more complicated. Need a scorecard!

    ARB
    Apr 30 09:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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