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  • Part 1: The Lessons In The 2014 Data For Midstream Master Limited Partnership Investing [View article]
    Two questions -

    How do you account for two things in evaluation MLPs - The amount of commodity exposure and the law of large numbers? The law of large numbers certainly makes achieving high DCF increases more and more difficult and eventually impossible. Commodity exposure is certainly dealt with to the best of each company's ability, but much of it is beyond their control.

    What do you do with an outlier (EPD) who handles its distribution policy of retaining HUGE amounts of cash completely differently from the other MLPs I am aware of? This certainly puts EPD is a class where they COULD be increasing their distribution by a much larger %, but choose not too.
    Feb 4, 2015. 11:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Your Ampio Pharmaceuticals Shares Now: AMPE Is Setting Up For A Secondary [View article]
    Marrock - OK. AMPE alrerady has a partner on Korea for Zertane. As to $4M to get Zertane approved in the USA - seriously. Listen to AMPE and they already said they were looking for approval overseas where additional studies were not needed.

    As an aside, unless something has changed AMPE really does not care about Zertane. Ampio is where the $$ is. The comment by the author that KL had a greater effect in grade 4 patients and therefore did not work in those with garde 3 condition is not logical. Simply stated it means the more severe patients had a greater benefit (at least partially because they had more room for improvement by about actor of 2X) than those less severe.

    A really scary artuicle that proves SA will print anything.
    Jan 27, 2015. 04:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Products nixes Bakken pipeline project [View news story]
    Do you think the other pipelines already under construction might have a teeny tiny bit to do with the cancellation?
    Dec 16, 2014. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It A Good Time To Buy MLPs? [View article]
    Marv - I agree with your comments but only caution the the IRS attitude toward collecting recapture on the sale of MLPs inside IRAs and tax exempts has been changing. No predictions except that they will probalby get more agressive in the future. Thus buying and selling to sort of close out MLP positions inside an IRa every couple years might be a good idea.
    Jul 5, 2014. 12:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It A Good Time To Buy MLPs? [View article]
    MLPs are no different from other stocks in that there is a step up on death. I am about 70 and have lots of MLPs with a basis close to zero. Do not think the step up up in basis is worth the cost to me. Given the choice of death or paying taxes on many of my distributions at LTCG rates, I will continue to pay my taxes, thank you.
    Jul 5, 2014. 12:42 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It A Good Time To Buy MLPs? [View article]
    What are the 13 you own that were not mentioned? Since Factoids mentioned 34 mLPs with either comments or statistics that total about 95% of the MLP market cap how do you only own 2 of the 34.

    Also the in depth discussion of a couple of the largest is most helpful especially when EPD operates in a manner different from every other MLP regarding distributions and KMP is the next largest.

    I also completely agree after the latest runup in prices it is time for a breather. If interest rates actually finally rise and the yiled of MLPs also rises then only EPD and a couple others are in a position to offset that rise with a higher CAGR regarding distributions.
    Jul 5, 2014. 12:38 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Might North American Oil Production Peak? [View article]
    The only problem with this analysis is while the decline curve is very steep it flattens and produces considerable oil through years 5-20. We also have huge additional places to drill. Lots more shale and about 2% of the Bakken drilled. Would personally guess a peak production in the 2022-2025 area for oil and for NG who knows.

    The problem of an oil glut in very light crude is already going away. Thus prices received will continue to be good and stimulate exploration. It is indeed interesting that as world tensions go up the prices follow and that encourages drilling in friendlier places.
    Jun 25, 2014. 02:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MLPs And The Conspiracy Of Silence [View article]
    Tony - The taxation issue has been widely discussed and there is significant disagreement on how it is handled inside an IRA. Outside it is simple. Zero basis and LTCG taxes kick in. You can defer a bit more using debt, but eventually all of the deferral comes back on a sale at ordinary income. Note - I do not consider the step step up on death a viable (LOL) alternative for my holdings.

    Holdings ceratinly are a personal choice sand as Bob and I have discussed some MLPs that are lower CAGR can act well as a portion of bond holdings. ETP is in that segment of mine as I bought with a 9% yield and was over allocated for MLPs.

    In the last 2 years the low yield high CAGR MLPs have lead the way, but in the early 2000s it was not the same. When interest rates rise things could change drastically. What do you think will happen if MS is correct and the average yield of MLPs rises to 6.1% from about 5.1% today? What if ETE or one of the family stumbles again? What if EMES or OILT rises swiftly and then gets to the higher tiers of IDRs? This raises the cost of capital and has significantly slowed many MLPs in the past. Also remember those MLPs wityh higher/investment grade ratings not only have lower cost of capital 10 year debt, but the ability to lock in for longer periods of time. Some of the fast growers laterly like EMES may not have that option.
    Jun 22, 2014. 04:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MLPs And The Conspiracy Of Silence [View article]
    A couple of thoughts - as usual - about your article. Using just MS, WF and UBS gives an interesting picture but there are other companies out there with often widely differing estimates. Also with the change at MS will there be significant changes in estimates there? I have no idea. I do kmow that it is difficult to get a significant number of CURRENT estimates from analyists and thus a number of smaller and often interesting companies are often left out.

    Are you using just the 3 companies or using more when you have access to them and thus obtain a often better number?

    Am I missing the boat when saying that the larger more mature companies have more predictability with DCF numbers? The law of large numbers makes it a lot easier to predict a very large company growing At say 5%-10% a year than a smaller company like MWE growing at a much faster rate. The is also a HUGE difference in predicting DCF when looking at organic projects compared to acquisitions. Again this effects my oft commented MWE as it is all organic today compared to many of its pers with large dropdowns.

    Last - what metric are you using for debt ratings? The reason is MWE received an BBB- investment grade rating recently from S&P on its last issuance of debt. A complete company rating thus is likely to follow if S&P continues with historical practice.
    Jun 22, 2014. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Partners' Return To Distribution Growth Was Predictable [View article]
    The Valentium analysis for value is excellent. Taking crediot for making the call for ETP returning to distribution growth is almost as silly as Al Gore inventing the internet. Almost every analyist and the company itself had said they would return to distribution growth, many before your call. Understrand you do not choose the headlines, but this one is bad!

    An $80 valuation is way too hiugh with interest rates at some point in the future rising. Most technical analysis of MLPs suggest the average yield of midstream MLPs rising from the current approx 5.2% to the 6% area over the next 3 years. ETP is going to need consistent rises in distributioon to maintain its unit price.

    Last, not sure why you suggest ETP pays a dividend. Such a comment both misleads investors and understates the tax laibility on sale. MLPs are a very different breed and such a disclaimer at least such be part of nay MLP article.
    Jun 22, 2014. 03:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Dividend Growers, Part 20: Kinder Morgan [View article]
    Metal is 10% correct. Also a reminder KMI in another year or two will simply be a GP of an MLP. It also not only has the headwind of KMP and EPB slowing in growth but an income tax issue coming up. The metrics you used for KMI are indeed pretty meaningless since KMI gets $$ mostly from its IDRs.

    Wondering why OKE was not used as part of this discussion.
    Jun 5, 2014. 10:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Was That The Bottom? [View article]
    Kinder has moved along with the AMZ. Most MLPs up at least as much as the Kinder group since April. Is this the start of an upward trend? Probably, but Kinder is simply too big to be in the top 10 MLPs any longer.
    Jun 3, 2014. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Partners: A 6.6% MLP With Strong Distribution Growth Prospects [View article]
    I have ETP as one of my largest holdings but your suggestion that it has been one of the stronger preformers is a bit misleading. ETP has had exactly ONE quarter of stong distribution coverage - last quarter. Before that ETP struggled and for a number of YEARS had no distribution increases and its unit price actually fell from the high 50s to $41.
    ETP has used a bit of slight of hand and convoluted business deals to get things back on track. ETP needs serious tailwinds becuase they were the guys who could not shoot straight from 2009 until late 2012. At that time you could buy ETP with a 9% yield. Why? No distribution increases, failed distribution coverage quarter after quarter, and generally little direction.
    FWIW, Susser makes sense in that ETP thought it had a great deal with the Sunoco retial operation. Instead they were not able to sell it without booking a loss. Combining it with Susser provides for a larger retail operation with people who understand how to manage the operation and thus ETP can evetually spin or sell the retail off.
    ETP is going lots of directions today. Their ownership of lots of SXL is benefitting them. Their adventure into propane that was a disaster is almost over (APU units almost all sold) and they have gotten away from basing their business on NG differentials which mostly disappeared. ETP is a bit late to the party and should do OK going forward.
    Just basing the look on the last quarter and preformance on the last 2 years, however, is misleading. There is a reason the yield on ETP is higher. Best to understand that before investing.
    Jun 3, 2014. 09:11 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Products Partners: A Valid Alternative To Kinder Morgan [View article]
    That one is easy - The correlation between MLP prices and interest rates is only about .25. Thus it would take a 4% rise in the 10 yr TBill rate to require a 1% increase in EPD yield. With the coverage of about 1.5X EPD can cover that amount easily.

    PS - KM in any flavor cannot.
    Jun 2, 2014. 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Products Partners: A Valid Alternative To Kinder Morgan [View article]
    The only problem is I would disagree Kinder is the "industry champion". EPD has an EValue of over $87B. With Kinder having a significant slowing in growth, EPD is now going to only further get larger while KMP/R are burdened with payents of IDRs to KMI. Probably the reason EPD continues upward and Kinder in down over the last year plus.
    Jun 2, 2014. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment