User 101257

Baltic Dry Freight Index Indicates Impending Recession

Sorry , I just sent you the above email and need to correct that the doubling of the dry bulk stocks was in the fall of 2007 ( got a little ahead of myself) . Happy to forward the graph if useful

Baltic Dry Freight Index Indicates Impending Recession

I have been involved in the financial side of the shipping market for 30 years. I have been predicting the fall in this index for about 2 months, but it has nothing to do with container ships-- only dry bulk. These ships have been grossly overrpriced-- sold and purchased at historical highs only justified by a temporary blip in the spot market. I have just graphed the baltic index over the free fall of dry bulk stocks , which doubled in the fall of 2008 and have fallen back to those levels in less than 2 months. almost 30 % of the world"s shipping supply is on order , coming out of Asian shipyards--all fueled by greedy owners, excessive liquidity in the public equity markets and cheap debt--- all of this is about to end and it will be ugly. I would love to speak to Cramer about this on his show.