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  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    I'm seriously overwhelmed with your knowledge of economics. However, being an Architect, I'm in need of an explanation, in layman's terms.
    May 26, 2013. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    Really? $45M in mortgage back security purchases every month haven't propped up (inflated) housing related stocks? Last time (mid April) there was concern FED would not refill the punch bowl, those stocks dropped as much as 20% only to go up 25% when the fear was allayed.
    May 18, 2013. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    Do you have any statistics to support your opinion that genetic make-up is the cause of current educational underperformance?
    May 18, 2013. 09:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Natural Gas Prices Are Impacting Coal [View article]
    Thanks for a simple, straightforward update/outlook.

    Assuming Ng gets shipped to China via a couple of ports and Westport/Cummins engines will be available in August, the demand will keep the price of Ng up. If EPA had been one of the 3 agencies Rick Perry would have deleted, we'd be in high cotton with coal.
    May 17, 2013. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of QE Won't Kill This Bull Market [View article]
    We all know the Fed will, at the very least, reduce QE, because they have told us they will. We're all smart enough to know they're not going to announce "The Party is Over" & instantly remove the punch bowl. So, there is no real reason to have a significant correction in a very short time frame, but it will happen.

    If 90% of market is owned by 20% of top income earners, what percent of total market investment is directly managed by individual investors? Don't know it is tracked, but the answer would be a very small insignificant percent. Collectively, those very few are not going to sway the market with a bunch of individual buy or sell orders at one time. So, who sways the market? IMHO, analysts, fund and money managers.

    For example: 2 weeks prior to the April FRBG meeting, rumor of QE elimination drove numerous housing stocks down 15%. By the date of or just prior to the meeting, they had climbed back to or above their pre-rumor level. The Fed will act more responsibly than analysts, fund and money managers, who react to rumor of a rumor for, again IMHO, personal gain.

    May 12, 2013. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of QE Won't Kill This Bull Market [View article]
    Deney_Terrio: "Earnings are strong". Might check the latest statistics on companies missing targeted earnings (approx. 60%) vs. those meeting or exceeding earnings and check percent of companies that are lowering future earnings projections.
    May 12, 2013. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    leopardtrader: Gloating is not admirable. If you were sooooo confident the bull would continue, why waste your time reading something that was developed as part of studying for a financial analyst's test and would obviously question your bull support?

    I am a novice trying to improve my investing awareness. Your statement "without really knowing exactly what they trade on" makes me want to know "what exactly do they trade on"?

    A sincere response would be greatly appreciated.
    May 12, 2013. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It Is Good To Hold Windstream [View article]
    What makes one buy one stock over another? Put $1000 into T, FTR, WIN & DISH on 1/1/11 and hold. At end of day 5/10/13 you have $387.42, -$467.16, -$236.43 and $976.5 respectively including dividends. If you're a buy & hold, T's probably more suited to your strategy. If you're a buy & sell, buy & sell, FTR has been better. If you're a dart thrower and don't depend on ANY quarterly income, DISH was a very good throw, so far. WIN would only be good if you just wanted or needed the dividend, regardless of appreciation or depreciation in price to date. I've hated T ever since my college days due to their "We know we're the only phone company in town & don't you forget it" attitude and practice, but they are in my home today due to price, dependability & availability. IMHO, WIN will be a good play due to marketing, service, people like me that hate T, and, in the long run, one simple reason: logo recognition.
    May 11, 2013. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Do You Find Depressed Stocks? Ask This Hedge Fund [View article]
    Thanks for sharing!
    May 11, 2013. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    2 days before last Fed meeting, premature fear about the Fed taking away the feed bag drove down housing related stocks. 2 days after Fed's assurance the feed bag would stay full + housing starts + housing prices + lower unemployment drove those stocks up. Where were those events on previous charts?

    Looking at a lot of numbers and charting what the market did (history) is relatively simple. Is there a chart that tracks events that created all the data, so one could be prepared when those events occur again? No. Do charts drive the event(s) that drive the chart, or do the events drive the chart independently? IMHO, future EVENTS, real or fabricated, will drive the market one way or the other.

    China? LoL. Market Down: Profit taking, fear generated by articles like yours, stagnating earnings resulting in "analysts" issuing a plethora of negative outlooks to drive the market down, more terrorism within our borders, mid-term elections, war in Mid-east (Israel/Iran), asteroid fear. Market up: "Analysts" milking Europe on the rebound in spite of negative earnings, dropping or stabilized oil prices, mid-term elections, U.S. harvesting purported huge resources in Afghanistan, asteroid misses.

    Without a chart, Redarrow5150 called it correctly in his post above.
    May 5, 2013. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    They did & it did.
    May 5, 2013. 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    #!: Perhaps you are being too modest?

    #2: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index may come the closest.

    #3: You obviously missed the HaHa! Regardless of history, fundamentals, etc., the market is largely emotion driven & reactive. So, in your humble opinion, what do you see as the cause(s) of the next major pullback?
    Apr 28, 2013. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    Thanks for sharing the obvious hard work. Perhaps SA needs to re-evaluate their opinion of the intelligence level of participants if they thought this article was too technical. It is very technical and I don't totally understand all of it, but my intelligence and level of understanding will never increase unless challenged.

    Beyond the initial effort given to the article, I applaud you for the continued effort to respond to comments, good and bad, and the willingness to consider other's opinions and information, all in an effort to enhance everyone's ability to invest WISELY. Aquater's well stated comment sums up my feelings.

    A few thoughts:
    1. One of your responses caught my attention: "I will not claim to be an expert in anything financial, particularly fundamentals."

    Definition of expert: An expert, more generally, is a person with extensive knowledge or ability based on research, experience, or occupation and in a particular area of study. Experts are called in for advice on their respective subject, but they do not always agree on the particulars of a field of study. An expert can be, by virtue of credential, training, education, profession, publication or experience, believed to have special knowledge of a subject beyond that of the average person, sufficient that others may officially (and legally) rely upon the individual's opinion.

    If you are not an expert or have some expertise, why should I spend any time reviewing your information? Wondering if you were just avoiding the "legal reliance" part?

    2. Is there some statistician tracking and charting the effects of non-expert articles like yours on market movement? How many investors are going to proceed very cautiously as a result of your article and how is that caution going to affect the markets?

    3. If I read your article correctly, you think there will be a pull back over the next 4 to 5 months, with a major pull-back occurring in 1 to 2 years. We ALL wanted specific dates and average points. HaHa!. More importantly, what will be the cause(s) of the major pullback? Mid-term elections? Ben's printing press malfunctioning? Korea? Iran? Asteroid fear? Didn't the last major pull-back occur in November of 2011 over concerns about Europe? As shown in one of your charts, Europe is no better off today, yet the markets have boomed ahead. Was Europe a real concern or just analyst's means of moving the market? Isn't it just a "somewhat" educated crap shoot?
    Apr 28, 2013. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Energy Fuels: The Big Picture [View article]
    Ng price has more than doubled over the last 12 months and diesel price has dropped in recent months, making the payback of cost conversion longer. has an interactive payback calculator. Calculator doesn't include cost of code required shop upgrades, mechanic certifications or new tools & repair equipment.

    Ng drilling rig count is down, availability of the Westport/Cummins engine has been delayed until August 2013, Shell hooked up with TA, ENN is building Ng stations in Utah and Questar Gas has 40 stations, mostly in Utah, Questar Corp. has a deal with Swift & Central Freight in Texas and a host of other Ng utilities are getting into the fueling market. So, CLNE with Pilot/Flying J is not the only game going.

    If CLNE is spending $450 million building the Ng super highway, what is the road to profitability just selling Ng and compressors? I'm holding 'till 4th. quarter hoping for a bump after release of Westar/Cummins engine & CLNE's 80 new stations.

    Over the last 8 +/-years, instead of straddling the political fence to garner support for any government incentive to convert trucks from diesel to Ng, Mr. Pickens alienated democrats by giving a paltry 4% to their campaigns and donating $2M to expose John Kerry's Swift boat claims. Had he straddled the fence, maybe he wouldn't have had to tell the US Shale Gas Story to the deaf, corrupt & stupid ears in Washington so many times one is surprised he still holds his vision. During that time, DoE poured $535M down the political payback solar rat hole with Solyndra and another $529M on Fisker. What would over $1B of incentives do for trucking conversion to Ng and CLNE? Make U.S. less dependent on foreign oil, reduce greenhouse gases and global warming for starters and save CLNE a lot of infrastructure costs?

    Mr. Pickens was so confident he could sell his water to DFW and the pipeline/wind turbine corridor to land owners and transmission lines to congress, that he bought wind generators before the deal was done. After selling his water rights to West Texas cities for less than the original asking price, CRMWA manager said "Boone's timing was always a little bit off". Hope excessive optimism and bad timing doesn't apply to CLNE. However, it appears Boone Picken's stake in CLNE is down to approximately 30%. Hmmm?
    Apr 27, 2013. 12:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • USG (USG): Q1 EPS of $0.02 misses by $0.07. Revenue of $814M (+4% Y/Y) misses by $50.58M. (PR[View news story]
    Not sure where you got your information and don't know exactly what it means, other than it paints a totally different (negative) picture compared to:

    USG Corporation (NYSE:USG), a leading building products company, today reported first quarter 2013 net sales of $814 million, up 4 percent from first quarter 2012 net sales of $783 million. USG's first quarter 2013 operating profit was $49 million compared to a $24 million operating profit in the first quarter of 2012. First quarter 2013 net income was $2 million or $0.02 per diluted share. This result compares to a $27 million net loss in the first quarter of 2012 or $0.26 per diluted share.

    "We are pleased to report our first quarter of net income in more than five years," said James S. Metcalf, Chairman, President and CEO.

    Maybe analysts and/ or investors read your negative information first, leading to the $1.00 pre-market decline. Then, they read the totally opposite positive information released by USG, leading to the $1.50 upswing in the first 30 minutes of market open.
    Apr 24, 2013. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment