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  • J.C. Penney: The Counter Argument [View article]
    I will have my short and lower the buy stop every time the price drops. I have a hard time believing that JCP can survive another year, especially with Ullman at the helm. The current CEO was replaced by RJ because the board did not feel MU was the right person to captain the ship. Yet, when RJ was let go, MU, the same captain that was previously considered not competent as CEO, was brought back to run the company. I don't have faith in MU.
    Oct 14, 2013. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Printing Is Not The Next Industrial Revolution [View article]
    You are comparing apples and oranges. 3D printers are not design edfor manufacturing. Take ONVO for example, where do you see the need for large printing of human tissues while the objective is drug testing? Another example is printing a crown for your tooth. You only need one piece.
    Oct 14, 2013. 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney's Secondary Offering Bought Some Time, But Not Much [View article]
    "Yes, I'm sure GS THEMSELVES bought a huge portion of the allotment".

    GS did? The stock went south after the secondary offering. Why would GS buy a huge chunk of the allotment?

    "If the price was good enough for GSs special clients, then it's good enough for me."

    Poor special clients.
    Oct 13, 2013. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: The Counter Argument [View article]
    Do you have to have a tenth man in every argument? Let's say that there are 9 out of ten people who say that the world is not flat, then do you have to be the tenth man to say it is?

    My family likes JCP as a store but after Ron Johnson took over from Ullman and now Ullman is back at the helm, JCP is run like a ship without a rudder. The fundamentals are so bad, retail is a complex business with low margin znd management does not seem to know how to handle the crisis it is facing now.

    In August it said it whill have $1.5B liquidity, then in September that number dropped to $ 13.B, so it would be in robust shape. Then GS downgraded the stock with target price $ 7, and yet a couple days GS announced a secondary offering of 84M shares with possible additional 12.6M shares, prices in mid $ 9/share.The proceed would be used for general operations.

    So, where is the truth? Did you need extra funds when you said thge company expectd $ 1.%B liquidity? And how about GS? Its TP for JCP was $ 7 and yet the secondary orffering was priced at $ 9.65. Who is to be believed.

    I hate to see JCP entering Ch 11 or even CH 7, but under Ullman - who was relieved as CEO before -, I don't see how JCP can survive.

    For those contemplating in putting money into JCP stock, my question is: is JCP the best place to put your money, better than any of the 10,000 publicly traded company?
    Oct 11, 2013. 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney's Secondary Offering Bought Some Time, But Not Much [View article]
    Why did JCP CFO resign? Was it possible that he found questionable accounting practices such that he would not want to be a part of that operation?

    Remember that several class action suits have been filed against JCP for giving misleading statements just to prop up the stock price.
    Oct 10, 2013. 11:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney's Secondary Offering Bought Some Time, But Not Much [View article]
    JCP has been sending flyers to entice buyers to purchase merchandise at 50% discount and plus some $ 25 to $ 50 extra credit.
    Revenues will increase but losses will be higher. However Loss Per Share (negative EPS) will be lower due to increase of the number of shares. The report will then show increase in Revenues accompanied by lower loss per share. Seems positive results, right? Investors should not be fooled by this illusion.

    If the objective is to clear inventory, doesn.t it seem that the company is trying to unload its real estate?
    Oct 10, 2013. 11:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How J.C. Penney Can Break Out Of This Hole [View article]
    JCP has sent flyers offering 50% discounts on many merchandise plus $ 25 to $ 50 credits for certain amount of purchases. Revenues might be generated from these sales, but will the company makes money? Just like the old saying, yeah I lost 10 cents for every time, but look, I make it up in volumes.

    American consumers are spoiled with good return policy (that's one reason people shop at Costco); so if people think that JCP will not be there when he/she needs to return the purchase, why would they shop at store.

    Right now investors are having doubts about Ullman's credibility. Last month the company said that it was confident to have $ 1.5B liquidity by ear end, then a month later that figure dropped to $ 1.3B, a decrease of $ 200M in a month. Then Ullman said that JCP has enough fund, and yet almost 100M shares was issued in secondary offering by Goldman Sachs effectively diluting shareholders ownership to the tune of about 40%. While the amount of loss will grow, Ullman might show that Loss Per Share decreases and some pundits might claim that JCP negative EPS is less than previous quarter, hence JCP is back on track.

    The interesting thing is that GS lower the target price to $7/share and yet a couple days later GS priced the secondary offering for mid 9/share. I just like to see who were the big buyers for that offering.

    Another SA writer feels that JCP could go back to $18. Let's see the implication of that scenario. JCP trades at around $ 8, and let's say the target price is $ 18. That is 125% in one year. How many of 10,000 traded companies can double in a year? Is JCP one of them? If you have extra money, do you think that JCP will be the best place to invest your money? Granted that Soros still has a sizable exposure in JCP. But did not he make mistakes now and then? He is under water right now.

    Don't catch a falling knife.

    Disclosure: I am short JCP stock. As always you should always place a buy stop to limit your potential loss just as Dante wrote the stock can theoretically go to infinity. As the stock keeps going south, lower the buy stop accordingly.
    Oct 10, 2013. 02:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn Looks To 'Score' On Dinner Date With Apple's Cook [View article]
    Steve Job would not have wasted a minute of his time to have dinner with Carl Icahn.
    Oct 3, 2013. 08:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on J.C. Penney's offering [View news story]
    Yes, it has started:
    Sep 28, 2013. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on J.C. Penney's offering [View news story]
    I smell class action lawsuit in the making.
    Sep 26, 2013. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Gave Wall Street The Middle Finger [View article]
    Is it not the fiduciary duty of the Board of Directors to represent shareholders? That is their role at this time when the stock drops siginifantly since Sept 2012? Apple shareholders are interested in their investment to grow and that is paramount over just creating the best product.

    Remember Sony with its great Beta? The company concentrated in making the best vcr and yet VHS ruiled the market a couple decades ago.

    Yes, I agree that TC should do both.
    Jan 29, 2013. 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Gave Wall Street The Middle Finger [View article]
    This is a well written article which articulates the possible reason Apple - as usual - maintains its secrecy. You present your case in a positive tone so that it is refreshing to read an analysis that is not just gloom and doom. Although I have some similar thought for stock buyback, I won't be able to express my reasoning as well as KIS. Apple has indicated that it doing stock buyback to replenish options awarded to employees, hence to compensate for dilution of EPS. But will Apple accelerate buyback more than it is needed?

    Apple has around $ 90B cash overseas. There is no question that Peter Oppenheimer ponders what to do with that idle cash which is subject to 35% repatration tax. How does Boeing do that? Most of its planes are sold overseas and where they park the money? How did they bring it back? The same with Merck. Where there is regulation, there generally is a loophole.

    Let's just say that Apple parks the bulk of its overseas money at Deutsche Bank (DB), the largest bank in the world. Apple can do a buyback via put options, hence buying at a discount. If the transaction is done overseas with the backing of of its cash in DB, Apple can easily buyback 10% of the outstanding shares and place it Treasury Stock. The question involves GAP and IRS guidelines. Can stocks held overseas be considered as treasury stock, and in the spirit of repatriation using cash overseas to buy shares be subject to taxation? Should a wholely owned "dummy" corporation be created to hold the shares and considered as treasury stocks?

    Those are all the questions for Accountants and Tax Lawyers.

    Finally kudos to you for a well written article and brain snacks.

    Jan 29, 2013. 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pie Or Rotten Apples? A DCF Valuation Following Earnings [View article]
    There should be management changes by now. The Board of Directors has not not done its fiduciary duty to look after shareholders' interest. What contribution can Al Gore give as a member of BoD aside from claiming that he invented the internet and cashing his huge option.
    Jan 25, 2013. 04:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Over 2M iPhone 5 units have been sold thus far in China, Apple (AAPL) boasts. China Unicom's (CHU) healthy pre-order activity probably had a lot to do with this figure. Sparse crowds for the Friday launch stoked fears initial sales were light, but weather and pre-ordering requirements seem to have played a role. For reference, Apple announced in September over 5M iPhone 5 units had been sold 3 days after the device went on sale in the U.S., Japan, and 7 other locales. (PR[View news story]
    Will the market give more weight to Citi analyst who downgraded Apple to neutral or ignore him? Afterall did not he start covering Apple with a buy on Nov. 26th?
    Dec 16, 2012. 10:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Apple: Shares could be pressured by a downgrade to Neutral from Citi. The firm says checks indicate Apple has cut its March quarter iPhone 5 orders following a 45%-50% increase in monthly output from October to December. UBS recently said checks suggested the iPhone 5's build rate would fall sharply in the March quarter, while Jefferies claimed iPhone component suppliers saw big order cuts last week. Citi, which started Apple at Buy on Nov. 26, also thinks Samsung is doing very well. Update: Morgan Stanley responds by pointing to encouraging U.S. iPhone/iPad survey data. But a gap has opened up between U.S. and foreign iPhone share trends. [View news story]
    Some two bit analysts like to stay in the spotlight. Why did Citi analyst started coverage on Apple with a buy on Nov 26 suddenly downgrade the stock not even 3 weeks later? What type of research did he do?
    Dec 16, 2012. 10:21 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment