Yagottabe Kidding

Thoughts on the Blackberry Network Fail

What isn't "smart" about this outage is that RIM apparently puts into place software updates that are inherently broken from the start.

I think they need to CLOSELY examine their software development structure, the management oversight of it, and their "QA" - the latter put in quotes for the obvious reason.

The Unlocked Phone Movement Gets a Big Boost

> There is definitely a price war brewing...

Can companies like Palm handle a price war?

I don't think so.

We're going to see some...er..."consolida...

Palm Has a PREcarious Channel Issue

I'm not sure what your reply is saying vis-a-vis what we NOW know "sell-through" means when Palm says the word, but at least we NOW know "sell-through" does indeed include devices that are NOT in end-consumer hands - exactly as you guys said (and MUCH to the surprise of Palm-observers far and wide!).

That's really all that matters - that little factoid screws up all SORTS of analysis, even off-the-cuff statements like "The X is being well received by the end consumer" for all 'X'.

And when you're discussing "marketshare" WHAT number is being used to represent Palm;s devices in that market? Could it be...gasp!..."sell-thr... as reported by Palm?

Palm Has a PREcarious Channel Issue

According to AllThingsD Palm has finally admlitted that their use of "sell-through" includes sales by those to whom they have sold to other non-end-consumer venues.

>>> UPDATE: This just in from Palm …
“The sell-through data we post reflects carriers’ sales to their customers. For example, Sprint customers include consumers who buy in a Sprint store, and Sprint retail partners such as Best Buy and RadioShack. We rely on our wireless carriers to provide us with sell-through data, and we note this fact in our 10Q.”
<<<

So forget everything you assumed about "sell-through", including its utility as a measure of a particular device's success.

Palm Has a PREcarious Channel Issue

If Palm has quietly changed the used-over-and-over-again definition of "sell-through" to simply mean that someone they sold to has in turn sold then they have materially changed a key number that they discuss in their earnings calls.

Since Day One "sell-through" has ALWAYS meant "sales to a consumer" and has NEVER meant "sales to a retail venue". The difference is SO radical (especially the "hidden inventory" angle) that such a change would require overt mention, IMHO.

In their 10Q Palm does not define sell-through, however they say only that they are relying on their customers to accurately report sell-through numbers. That is a rather wide hole in the reporting of a key statistic.

Palm Pre: Are Returns Slowing Growth?

The 117,000 number was changed to 55,000 in an update in the original article; it should be changed here, too.

I'd like to know where EITHER number came from, however, since I've NEVER seen such a number mentioned in years and years of Palm/Handspring watching.

Smartphones Becoming a Necessity, Expect More Growth

It is sufficient to have a "featurephone" that does what smartphones do (other than progammability - the ONLY feature of a smartphone that distinguishes it from non-smartphones?). Give me location, email, browsing, messaging, alarms, all the standard PIM stuff - and what else? - and I'm a Happy Camper with a featurephone.

Palm Pre: Gauging Success Will Take Time

The Pre hasn't saved Palm, Elevation Partners did with literally MASSIVE investments - THREE of the them. We'll have to see how the Pre does, not Saturday, but a few weeks down the line when non-early-adopters express whatever interest they're going to express in it. In between now and then the Pre must PROVE to be a robust piece of hardware and software or those early-adopters buying Saturday are going to FILL the web with their complaints of crashes or hardware malfunctions.

And, of course, there's that small matter of...you know...Apple.

The Palm Pre: Can One Device Save Two Companies?

Palm is depending on Sprint.

Sprint for sure is NOT depending on Palm.

Check Sprint's upcoming (early June!) lineup - they've got total insurance against a Pre flop.

Palm: It's Official, Pre to Launch June 6 for $200

WHAT misinformation!!!?

$300 up-front-walk-out-the-... price for the phone - like it or not.

$70 for the first Touchstone and back - like it or not.

$50 for every extra Touchstone (major marketing point of the Touchstone was you could have one at home and at office) and an ADDITIONAL set of bucks for the CHARGER that the Touchstone uses (unless you want to carry around your Pre charger and plug each Touchstone into it as you arrive at the location!). An expensive Everything plan and an ADDITIONAL cost for that "select" unlimited data plan.

THAT'S what the buyer is confronted with at the store - like it or not.

"Misinformation" my ass - you're going to see massive "Ya gotta be kidding!" comments coming out of no-longer-potential buyers when they see THAT.

Palm: It's Official, Pre to Launch June 6 for $200

So $300 for the phone, $70 for the first Touchstone dock and back, then $50 for the Nth Touchstone dock and, how much?, for the charger to go with it, then the cost of an Everything calling plan and then add in the cost of their select data plans, and I think those Walmart customers are going to say "Oh, and how much for this other phone?" really fast.

Does Palm's Pre Have Anything on the iPhone or Storm?

The "problem" with the Pre is it's not right for a celebrity to use two hands - they have to be holding the Pre up to their ear while glancing to the side at someone with a crinkled-nose smile while waving cutely with the other hand. If they do that with the Pre you don't even SEE it.

Did you see that Microsoft set of tweets that just happened and is being "reported" around by the Engadgets of the World? "Hold off on getting an iPhone/Pre" Yikes!

Still No News on Palm Pre Release

>>> "...The entire universe is excited about the Palm Pre..."

Only early-adopters know about this device; the rest of the Universe hasn't got a clue about it.

Palm's Pre: Likely to Break

> ...But it's hard to believe they will have a glitch free phone right out
> of the starting gate when supposedly this one has a lot of new tech
> on it...

I'd actually be MUCH more concerned about their (necessary for WebOS/Synergy) server farm having teething problems; it's unlikely they have tested it with a simultaneous load of, say, 50,000 to 100,000 Pre owners.

Does Palm's Pre Have a Chance Against the iPhone?

The interest in Palm's and Sprint's sites was higher prior to the intro of the Pre.

That sort of says any further analysis of that first chart as a measure of Pre interest is entirely bogus.