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MRCDH45

MRCDH45
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  • What Is The Bond Market Telling Us? [View article]
    Contrarian, you have what Hal Geneen (former ITT chairman) would call the "authority of knowledge" and you also happen to be in very good company relative to your view of the current world economic mess as evidenced in the following article by John Mauldin (http://bit.ly/1d8L9vT). John looks at the world economic mess through a somewhat different prism, but his conclusion is congruent with yours. Again, thank you for taking the time to communicate the dangers (opportunities) that are on the horizon in spite of the naysayers, who are in for significant unpleasantness as this plays out.
    Apr 23, 2015. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Interpretation Of Recent Market Signals [View article]
    Contrarian, you have mentioned TLT will do well in the deflationary spiral; are there any negative ramifications relative to positions in inverse S&P ETF's such as SPXU or other inverse vehicles. Is it anticipated that restraints might be placed on shorting the various major indices?
    Oct 23, 2014. 01:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Decline: Get A Grip! [View article]
    Contrarian, why don't you just suggest to your detractors to pull up a monthly chart of the S&P or the DJIA from 1999 to the present period highs. Connect the major peaks and troughs and what do you have, a megaphone pattern (bearish). Tell them to observe the properties of the pattern (major lows are lower than previous major low). Connect the the lows and what does one see for the next anticipated low (about 580 on the S&P). 580/1850=31.4 or stated another way a decline of approximately 70% (Wallah). I think you are having to much fun stringing them along. There will probably be some countertrend rally before the serious downleg starts, but once the 200 DMA is broken then it will get serious.
    Frankly, how any group of reasonably intelligent adults can believe (with all of the idiocy that has been happening here in the United States and internationally) that all is just peachy, and this can go on and on (over 5 years so far); well there are more Pollyannas than I originally thought.
    Jan 29, 2014. 04:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Friday's Sell Off [View article]
    I would not categorize it as fear; prudence is a better term. It is the quality of approaching situations thoughtfully, considering the possibilities and risk at play. It means taking time to assimilate context and history prior to launching into action. It means reality-checking our own assumptions and instinctual reactions.
    This often prevents mistakes and unnecessary detours by reminding us to listen and to learn (not believing we are all knowing). Judiciously applied—without reverting to fear, superstition, or cynicism—prudence allows us to process and consider so we can then proceed with greater clarity and confidence; leads to healthy action.
    Jan 27, 2014. 04:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Friday's Sell Off [View article]
    Contrarian, check out Fear&Greed response to my commentary to you.
    Jan 27, 2014. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Friday's Sell Off [View article]
    Fear&Greed, if you read a few of my comments you will note that I have checked Contrarian's earlier postings and posed the same questions to him. He freely admits that he was early on his comments, but since I am a strong believer in first a return of my capital and second the return on my capital I give his arguments a reasonable degree of sway. I don't like to hang around parties until they start to get sloppy, it is generally better to start to pack up a little bit early.

    You chose to ignore the various points that I highlighted as problems (FED interference in the markets, governmental interference in the markets, commodity weakness signaling economic weakening on a global basis, politicians touting a socialist agenda over free market capitalism (see Andrew Thomas' article in the "American Thinker" ("In Their Own Words Lenin, Stalin, Obama, Hillary") http://bit.ly/1fiDYhX . Read it and if you don't think these beliefs are destructive (to the country and individual investors) then you have more problems than I originally thought. I feel that Tom Perkins (Co-founder of Kleiner Perkins) got it right when he compared today's treatment of successful Americans (by the current administration) to the persecution of the Jews in Nazi Germany during the early 1930's. I won't even go into the impacts of moral relativism, multi-culturalism, situational ethics and political correctness on the foundations of our society and tangentially on our economy and ultimately our portfolios.

    There are a plethora of other negatives I didn't touch upon. Deflation is a factor that is growing in significance (Japan, Europe, signs in the United States). China, Europe, and the Emerging Markets are locked in a mutual economic drift, which appears to being playing out in a negative way. Contrarian has consistently made the aforementioned points (early, but they are playing out). Contrarian has stated that interest rates will decline(which is what has generally been happening, flight to safety), while the know-it-alls were forecasting higher rates. Read "An Emerging Global 'Perfect Storm' 4 Key Trends to Watch" by Jack Rasmus.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    My suggestion to you, have a little more Fear, and a lot less Greed.
    Jan 27, 2014. 03:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Friday's Sell Off [View article]
    The following was sent under an earlier posting but it is still applicable. Contrarian, you will have to start taking orders from your detractors on how they would like their crow prepared, for when they will have to consume it by the bucket.
    A) How can anyone (except the naive) expect the markets to perform in a stellar fashion ad infinitum considering all the storm clouds that have been forming and the mishandling of the economies over the last 5-6 years. As the old saying goes, you can put lipstick on a pig, but it is still a pig.
    B) How can anyone (except the naive) watch the Central banks throughout the world destroying price discovery through their interventions; the FED not only drives the markets, they have become the markets (but for how long). Investors are not focused on inherent value, only how will the FED think or react. Thomas Jefferson warned..." . If the American people ever allow private banks to control their currency, first by inflation then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their prosperity until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”
    C) How can anyone (except the naive) expect a favorable outcome ( nationally or internationally) when we have large numbers of misguided/destructive individuals in the Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches of government, whose mission is to reward the clueless/irresponsible (takers) of our society and demonize those who work hard and play by the rules (the doers). In this regard Andrew Thomas just wrote a very thought provoking article in the "American Thinker" ("In Their Own Words Lenin, Stalin, Obama, Hillary") http://bit.ly/1fiDYhX If anyone thinks everything is wonderful, they are really clueless and live in a dream world. The policies of many of our leadership are straight from Saul Alinsky's, Rules For Radicals.
    D) How can anyone (except the naive) make a case for Dr. Copper when the various economies of the world are showing more and more weakness stemming from bad policy and poor societal values.
    Contrarian, you have numerous naysaying, cynical, know-it-alls carping away at you; however, you have (as Hal Geneen (ITT) referred to it) the authority of knowledge on your side.
    Jan 27, 2014. 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China In The Bull Shop [View article]
    Contrarian, you will have to start taking orders from your detractors on how they would like their crow prepared for when they have to consume a bucket of it.
    A) How can anyone (except the naive) expect the markets to perform in a stellar fashion ad infinitum considering all the storm clouds that have been forming over the last 5-6 years. As the old saying goes, you can put lipstick on a pig, but it is still a pig.
    B) How can anyone (except the naive) watch the Central banks throughout the world destroying price discovery through their interventions; the FED not only drives the markets, they have become the markets. Investors are not focused on inherent value, only how will the FED think or react. Thomas Jefferson warned..." . If the American people ever allow private banks to control their currency, first by inflation then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their prosperity until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”
    C) How can anyone (except the naive) expect a favorable outcome (on a national or international basis) when we have a vacuous/destructive Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches of government, whose mission is to reward the irresponsible (takers) of our society and demonize those who work hard and play by the rules (the doers). In this regard Andrew Thomas just wrote a very thought provoking article in the "American Thinker" (In Their Own Words Lenin, Stalin, Obama, Hillary) http://bit.ly/1fiDYhX If anyone thinks everything is wonderful, they are really clueless and live in a dream world. The policies our leadership are operating under is straight from Saul Alinsky's, Rules For Radicals.
    D) How can anyone (except the naive) make a case for Dr. Copper when the various economies of the world are showing more and more weakness stemming from bad policy and poor societal values.
    Contrarian, you have numerous naysaying, cynical, know-it-alls carping away at you; however, in the end, you will have the last laugh when they are crying in their beer.
    Jan 24, 2014. 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold And Silver Will Break To New Lows, Then Rise [View article]
    Doug, I have read many of your comments on various topics in SA. I have found them to be incisive, ahead of the curve, and congruent with my observation of the sick faux kabuki play that is taking place in the major markets of our fair planet.

    You have exchanged ideas with Contrarianadvisor, whose opinions seem to coincide with yours. Please advise if this is too sweeping a statement. Given the aforementioned do you see on the horizon not only a significant decline in gold and silver, but a general global deflationary contraction caused by overleveraging in the major economies, that will impact stocks (indexes down by 50%), US treasury bond yield declining (bond prices up as a flight to safety). Do you see a scenario in the near term that might be the trigger?

    I don't believe it is as simple as gold will decline in price and hit some magic number $800 or $900 or $1,000; the market will turn and inflation will come galloping in and gold will rise like a rocket. Could you share your opinion of how you see the dominos falling on a macro basis that gets us from where we are today and over the pit that is before us?
    Dec 30, 2013. 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Outlook Still Bullish; Expect Correction To End With 'Intense Selling' [View article]
    Contrarian: S&P continues to make new intraday and closing highs, the 3rd qtr GDP was revised upward to over 4%; 2yr, 5yr, 10yr yields are rising (maybe a sign the FED is losing the battle); US dollar recently showing some strength (maybe due to rising interest rates or weakness in world markets ); gold and silver continue to sink (at least through yesterday, possible sign of deflation in the air); however the markets continue to march higher. Dispite what is reported, the current administration is a group of lying low lifes (and you can add many members of the Senate and House also) and I have very little faith in the numbers that are reported. The market is supposed to reflect an advance look at the direction of the economy. When I view what is happening I see more people on food stamps, true unemployment is greater than 10%, malaise of the citizenry is high and growing, market internals are not robust (charts have more of a downward bias than upward (new highs declining, STIX trending down, bearish divergences on most indicators), but the market averages continue to climb. I am sure there are 4 trillion reasons and counting for why this is. If the markets are forward looking can't they see the train approaching on same track ahead; however the averages continue to rise.
    Your various commentaries are congruent with my visceral reaction to what I see transpiring; however are your commentaries intuitively based or do you have some solid facts supporting the conclusions you put forth; if so I would be interested in you sharing a scenario or two or three given the current status of the market and what will introduce hard reality into the apparent insanity that we have before us.
    Dec 22, 2013. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury Yield Snapshot: New Update [View article]
    Contrarian, you state that: "This will be an involuntary debt liquidation cycle. Who knows what the catalyst will be. All I know is that it will be a global contraction that will create enormous financial dislocation throughout the world."
    Could you extrapolate a bit on the who, what, where, why, and how of an "involuntary debt liquidation"? Please paint a scenario (as you envision it) of how this might unfurl and who the initial players might be and how they might be impacted. What specific evidence do you currently see that makes you confident of the aforementioned scenario that you detail? How would military action in the Middle East impact your vision of "enormous financial dislocation throughout the world"? Would it add to or soften the impact? WWII was what ended the last deflationary cycle. Thank you in advance for your feedback.
    Nov 20, 2013. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury Yield Snapshot: New Update [View article]
    Contrarian, I concur that deflation is becoming more and more evident commodities(gold (over $15 today), silver, copper, oil, CRB etc are declining), employment/labor utilization declining, Baltic Dry Index declining, psychological mindset of deleveraging is becoming more entrenched (some of which is due to baby boomers retiring), economic growth is weak in the US (policies of the current administration being a significant contributor), declining in Europe and Japan. Other than price for such things as (S&P, TLT, commodities) what is the canary in the mine that will signal that the anticipated reversal is gaining traction. The put/call ratio has been at its lows (complacency) for much longer than usual, and investor sentiment is at elevated levels. What is the confluence of factors that will negate/neutralize the influence of QE on the markets and be a catalyst for the markets to revert to their mean and/or seek their proper level.
    Nov 18, 2013. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Side Of Goldman Sachs Is Right About Gold? [View article]
    Contrarian:
    Gold is in a bear market (price and 50DMA are below the 200DMA), the twenty year bond ETF (TLT), bottomed and is increasing, the economy is performing more and more poorly, sentiment has to look up to see bottom (what else would one expect with the Wizard of OzBama doing all he can to push the country off the cliff). As I pointed out in an earlier comment you felt the market had topped back in the 1st qtr of this year, which you responded that you were a bit early in your call; we are now in the 4th qtr, the markets just made all time new highs.

    Please share your insights on what scenario/scenarios are on the horizon that will be catalysts that lead to the deflationary cycle that you talk about. What signposts (other than those mentioned above) will be indicative that the deflationary engine is shifting into gear. The dollar has been dropping of late; however its chart is reflecting a bullish wedge pattern, which may portend a possible reversal. As the song states:
    Oh, the days dwindle down
    To a precious few
    September, November.......

    If this is going to commence before the end of 2013 something has to put it into gear.
    Oct 23, 2013. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: The Storm Before The Calm [View article]
    Contrarian, many of your points deserve focus and it is true that when the herd is galloping in the same direction it is prudent to consider other alternatives; however, in late February of this year you stated the following, which proved to be less than prescient since the S&P went from approximately 1530 to 1730 rather recently: "Obviously, that's not on most investors' radar. I also believe the S&P will fall to 500 this year. We are just completing a massive 13 year top and yet the most pundits are calling for new highs in the market, with many calling for substantial new highs. I think there is a good possibility that we will not revisit these market levels again in our lifetime. If I'm right, the high level of bullishness on the Street today is very misplaced".
    I am sure that you have a good quality eraser on the end of your pencil and use it often like I do. We are in the fourth quarter of 2013; what scenario(s) do you envision that will be the catalysts that will cause the rapid decline you have stated often under various topics. You are in good company(Gary Schilling, Robert Prechter, Charles Minter etc) with your viewpoint. I would be interested in your feedback.
    Oct 9, 2013. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Rates As a Buy, But Unanswered Questions Are Taking The Price Down [View article]
    Intel management should obviate the naysaying analysts by releasing monthly forward operational commentary that fine tunes what was released during previous earnings conference call. As Paul Otellini has stated the analysts do not have adequate shoes on the street to determine what is actually happening in such markets as China, India, Brazil etc. This would neuter the analysts ruminations and vivid imaginations and substitute facts from the source. What seems to be preventing the aforementioned is the "Quiet Period" with which Intel saddles itself. Commenting on the health of the company's operations should be something that should be encouraged, not muffled with a baseless "Quiet Period".
    Sep 1, 2011. 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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