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George Savvakis

George Savvakis
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  • Grecovery: Stock Market Realities From A Greek Value Investor [View article]
    Thank you Dimitrios for your thoughts. Very interesting, indeed your article. What I would like to add is the following. Greek stocks in absolute P/E terms can't be really cheap right now because the ASE General Index has risen over 150% since its June 2012 lows. The Greek economy is struggling for several years, profitability is 60% down from its peak in 2007 for most of the companies. But, when you adjust the forward P/E with normalized margins, ex financial large caps for example trade at 5-6 times max and financials 7-9 times, if things return back to nomality. Moreover, in terms of P/BV there is still room for upside without taking into account any adjustment.
    Nov 28, 2013. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NBG Takes Another Step On The Path To Recovery [View article]
    According to my calculations and 2Q 2013 results, NBG tangible common shareholders’ equity (post the Eur9.756 bn recap less Eur229 mn associated costs) stood at cEur3.9 bn. These numbers, give an EBA Core Tier I at 8.6% and with price of NBG 3 euros per share, P/TBV is calculated at 1.85 times.
    Oct 1, 2013. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NBG Takes Another Step On The Path To Recovery [View article]
    According to my calculations and 2Q 2013 results, NBG tangible common shareholders’ equity (post the Eur9.756 bn recap less Eur229 mn associated costs) stood at cEur3.9 bn. These numbers, give an EBA Core Tier I at 8.6% and with price of NBG 3 euros per share, P/TBV is calculated at 1.85 times.
    Oct 1, 2013. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sentiment On Greece Reverses: NBG Shares Plunge 86% In 6 Weeks [View article]
    Thank you Emmanuel. NBG is really "rich" in valuation terms compared to any other banks that face, more or less, the same severe economic conditions. Even if we taken into account that currently all Turkish banks trade above their tangible book value, which gives an excuse to NBG to ask for a premium compared to Alpha Bank (ALBKY.PK) and Piraeus Bank (BPIRY.PK) and even if we calculate that NBG does not face the integration challenges that Piraeus Bank and in a lesser degree Alpha Bank have to handle. According to my calculations, P/TBV for NBG stands at 1.13x, 0.70x for Alpha Bank and 0.51x for Piraeus. Finally, a key driver to analyse the future performance of the stocks are the warrants. Warrants may include higher value than the stocks for several reasons.
    Jul 4, 2013. 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sentiment On Greece Reverses: NBG Shares Plunge 86% In 6 Weeks [View article]
    Indeed there are some interesting thoughts here but the only real asset that has real value, and is currenly undervalued in the NBG balance sheet, is its subsidiary Finansbank and that's it. The book value you need in order to calculate the P/BV ratio of NBG is the book value owned by common shareholders only. For NBG you have to adjust the reported number of -1968mn euros as per 1Q13 IFRS , for the 1350mn euros of state prefs and about 400mn of US listed prefs (there is a pending VTO for those but let’s ignore it for the moment). In regards to the above the book value was -1968-1350-400= -3718…then toy add the 9756mn of the recap increase and you get to 6038 post money book… These figures gives a P/BV ratio of 0.94 times which is compared to 0.4-0.5 times of the European average. If you need to go further and calculate the Tangible Book value, then you take 2.1bn off from the 6038mn. So market cap 5.7/6= 1.22…or in TBV terms 1.5x or so. Extremely rich valuation comparing to Alpha Bank (ALBKY.PK) or Piraeus Bank (BPIRY.PK) which are the main competitors.
    Jul 2, 2013. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It's hard to buy something down 80%," writes Mebane Faber, but it may not be a bad time to do just that. The average 3-year return since 1920 when buying a sector lower by 80% from a peak is 172%, according to his research - think tech in 2002, homebuilders in 2009, and junior gold miners (GDXJ) today (gold miners GDX or RING are off nearly that amount). The returns are similarly enticing for entire industries and countries - think Greece (GREK) today. [View news story]
    Maybe it is time for GREK.
    Jun 27, 2013. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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