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  • Sell The SPY And Prepare For A Potential Market Crash  [View article]
    "One of my main complaints about buy and hold investors is that they fail to recognize the cyclical nature of the stock market, of industries, and of their individual holdings. "

    A counter to that offered by Graham is not that they fail to recognize cycles, but rather, It is that they recognize they cannot time, predict, or outsmart the market. Which is why he prescribes DCA. DCA combined with buying stocks of already low multiples gives one that margin of safety (as evidenced by the higher performance of Graham's Enterprising Defensive portfolios).

    It's a distinction worth calling out.
    Feb 3, 2016. 03:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Decline Is Gaining Momentum  [View article]
    Appending my reply; see here for CLO exposure to energy debt tranches:

    Figure 11. Defaults are climbing though nowhere near 2008 yet.
    Jan 15, 2016. 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Decline Is Gaining Momentum  [View article]
    Same here. My econ data showed a slight Q4 deceleration in the US but nothing negative. EU and Japan actually improved. China not so much. But China being bad is nothing new either.

    But my big question which I still have not got an answer for here - what percentage of CLO debt exposure is composed of energy companies? Roughly I see 5% but CLOs have 20:1 leverage. These bankruptcies and defaults are starting. Are those debt tranches actually AAA, or did raters get sloppy again and they are actually BBB+ or worse?
    Jan 15, 2016. 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Bull Market On The Ropes?  [View article]
    High volume close on a hammer. Bulls woke up after all.
    Jan 11, 2016. 03:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Not 2008 And It Is Not Time To Freak Out  [View article]
    Just like CLO exposure to BBB energy defaults being contained...perhaps.
    Jan 8, 2016. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Not 2008 And It Is Not Time To Freak Out  [View article]
    A few other things. the Fed's CFSI (Cleveland Financial Stress Index) is trending up, but is nowhere near 2008. However, $HYG corporate debt is at 2008 turmoil levels. The US economy did show some deceleration in Q4, but my indicators at least did not all turn red, just a weaker green. Finally, there are signs that the CLO positions of bankrupting energy companies are unwinding (affecting said credit markets). This deserves merit because you are talking 20:1 leverage on these derivatives. Now how much of the total CLO market is comprised of energy credit, I would love to know. Any one know?
    Jan 7, 2016. 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2007, Take Two?  [View article]
    NSC has a solid Piotroski F-score and due to the M&A jawboning, it has appreciated quite nicely over the last few months regardless of turbulence. Do you have a price target for taking profits, Chris or a recommendation on exiting the position due to the takeover coming to fruition?
    Nov 20, 2015. 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Can Beat Microsoft With Businesses  [View article]
    Not one mention of Azure (>1Bn revenue with even Amazon hopping on).

    Not one mention of SharePoint (>1.5Bn revenue)
    Oct 16, 2015. 05:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Can Beat Microsoft With Businesses  [View article]
    Hmm, its a dubious figure. It doesn't say what the nature of Help desk support was. Is it a driver issue? Or is it a problem with Safari consuming SharePoint web services? Are they having RSA login issues?

    All these things go to the "Help Desk."

    (I am also not disputing that Macs are typically more stable).
    Oct 16, 2015. 05:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Trust The Energy Market Rally To Hold?  [View article]
    Bloomberg seems to think that an economy which mostly relies on a single export to drive their economy is feeling the effects of that export dropping 40%. No way the Kingdom can preserve itself with prices this low with the instability in the region.
    Oct 11, 2015. 09:16 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have Stocks Made An Important Bottom? (Video)  [View article]
    "Increased expectations for BOJ easing - Nomura"

    Its possible that even though nothing happened on Friday, someone on the inside got tipped off and bought the rumor. Who knows.
    Oct 5, 2015. 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have Stocks Made An Important Bottom? (Video)  [View article]
    I wouldn't rule out bottom fishing in oil stocks for valuable dividend players...There's good firms out there for cheap and rig counts are going down. OPEC and the frackers can't keep at it and survive.

    As for airlines also take a peek at Hawaiian $HA. Stayed strong through the tumult. And if you fly with them, you understand. Good product.
    Oct 5, 2015. 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have Stocks Made An Important Bottom? (Video)  [View article]
    Being 1:1 is not the point anyway, its that the Dragon USDJPY pair and most Yen crosses have risk-on sensitivities due to the low yield of the Yen, and the Yen's place as the safe haven of last resort, even with BOJ easing. When people are bidding up Yen its risk off. As OP states the Dragon is used as a carry trade - the profits from the carry get liquidated into risk-on equity markets.

    In short and not shocking in the least bit, FX pairs provide valuable signals to investors.

    If this rally is fake then commodity traders bit at it too. CADJPY AUDJPY all showing risk on. TLT/treasuries double topped.
    Oct 5, 2015. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Still Ridiculously Wrong (Part 2)  [View article]
    I tend to agree with Schiller that this is not deflation, but the new sick normal. Aging demographics, entitlements, technology and wage arbitrage due to x-AAS and globalization have radically changed the economic model of today from before. Everyone keeps going around with a beggar thy neighbor strategy thinking that is the solution, which would be way too easy.
    Sep 21, 2015. 12:12 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Collapse A Lone Aberration Or A Warning Signal?  [View article]
    Dip buying becomes its inverse as bounce selling. Its all just mean reversion directional strategy.
    Sep 1, 2015. 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment