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  • Is All Hell About To Break Loose? [View article]
    You are on the same path as to what Goldman Sachs wrote is going on. An attempted and structured internal devaluation of the EUR rather than Greece leaving and then devaluing.

    BTW, Euro closed the 1.097 gap and is back up to 1.12. That is a historic pip movement. crazy.
    Jun 29, 2015. 03:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is All Hell About To Break Loose? [View article]
    Agree Lakers - though I think what some are saying is the precedent that an exit from the EU and what that means for the future stability. That is the risk factor.

    Now how you quantify or time, such a precedent affecting sentiment...who knows.
    Jun 29, 2015. 01:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy - The New Greek Proposal [View article]
    "And after Greece came out with the new proposal yesterday, the Euro appreciated." No...way off. You should provide a chart which supports your narrative.

    Look at the spot FX $EURUSD prices on OANDA following what happened as the Euro deal was made. The Euro depreciated from 1.14064 to 1.11659 after the deal was made. In fact, the Euro stopped appreciating at all after 6/18...

    Risk-on sentiment flipped on as FX traders went back into carry trades for higher yielding more risky assets while selling Euros. Euros had been rallying since 5/27 moving with risk-aversion assets, not in spite of it as you state:

    Finally, the last mistake of your article "Last week, the perceived increase in the risk of a Greek default lifted the US dollar" - the dollar index as measured by $UUP FELL from $25.64 to 24.71 as of 6/22. Only today after the deal did prices bounce back up to 25.04, mostly because the Euro acts as the anti-dollar.

    I'm not sure whether your writers confused the terms of appreciation and depreciation or they don't know how to read a chart....might want to tighten up your editing in all respect.
    Jun 23, 2015. 06:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interest Rate Hike - It's Different This Time Edition [View article]
    HYGH is an ETF designed to deal with rising interest rates by iShares. Though in a recent Fidelity seminar a rep from BalckRock touted the merits of munis (TFI) and short term bonds as well.
    Jun 20, 2015. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interest Rate Hike - It's Different This Time Edition [View article]
    I will possibly be pedantic and say it is due to credibility, not politics.

    With the Fed continuing to move the goal posts over the last years of being data dependent, a failure to hike despite strong NFP and other fundamental indicators picking up represents a contradiction of their stated policy toward optimizing unemployment and inflation.
    Jun 20, 2015. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Market Forming A Top? [View article]
    technically, IF TOP = MAX(Price For Time Frame (n)). A top appears any time price = MAX, leading to a ton of false signals along the way. Instead perhaps try...

    IF TOP(x) = MAX Price in TF(n) AND TOP(x +1) < TOP(x) = possible peak with support retest to invalidate. No reason to overcomplicate things with a bunch of indicators that have limited correlation coefficients to $SPY.
    Jun 12, 2015. 10:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Minutes Analysis: USD Back Is Against The Wall [View article]
    But if they do find "residual effects" of seasonality after adjusting the GDP one time, well then, they can just adjust it once more to make the data double seasonality adjusted:
    May 21, 2015. 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If This Is A True Sell-Off In Biotech... [View article]
    Yes, Schiller CAPE > 20 (upper quintile warning zone) , biotech PE at 27!

    The future value of every investment is a function of its present price. The higher the price you pay, the lower your return will be. - Graham.

    cash is good. But hey its still a world QE party with China bringing some to the punch bowl.
    Apr 28, 2015. 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD's Long-Term Outlook Remains Strong [View article]
    Because reports such as the NFP effect inflation expectations. Such expectations bid a currency up or down as they price in the interest rate pending change. So if the interest rate is near zero and the job numbers keep getting real strong then the central bank will either need to hike interest rates or start facing inflation headwinds.

    M2 has been busted for quite some time as an intermarket standalone tool anyways.
    Feb 26, 2015. 03:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zulauf: Fed won't hike this year [View news story]
    Recall however, that when Japan started recovering in the 96-00 the net inflows even into their bonds also bouyed the Nikkei, this was as the Yen appreciated 10%. The relationship between a strengthening currency is not always bearish for stocks. Net inflows into US bonds could have a pinball effect of boosting equities too if the US is deemed a safe haven.

    My guess...the world takes cheap Euros and Yen and carry trades them for higher yielding equities and other appreciating currencies such as the dollar.
    Jan 24, 2015. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Gold Prices Have Been Declining [View article]
    "Gold is a precious metal" What is one's definition of precious?

    If stranded on a desert island with no water a diamond is worthless, and water, with a far greater supply is now "precious". On that island, baseball cards and gold are worth about the same.

    The value of every asset is relative to a covariance of factors at that moment in time.
    Nov 7, 2014. 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY And The U.S. Economic Index Head In Different Directions In October [View article]
    Interesting read and similar to a relational data model I'm creating. Thanks for sharing. You have a very similar approach to my model whereas I use 5 economies data to hone in on currency pair inefficiencies.

    I did also pick up today that the on balance volume of $SPY is making a lower high, which coupled with SPYs higher high is another bearish divergence to note.
    Nov 6, 2014. 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Ebola Fears: What To Do And What Not To Do [View article]
    Correct - Ebola was simply the catalyst needed to fuel the selling that was already underway. And good riddance, market was way too overbought and way too toppy anyhow.
    Oct 15, 2014. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Ebola Fears: What To Do And What Not To Do [View article]
    I wanted to buy it, but because of my signaling and what I take, inverse could not be bought by my rules. However, what I do want to see is the TNA correct which will then create the TZA dip for a mean reversion play I can use.
    Oct 15, 2014. 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Ebola Fears: What To Do And What Not To Do [View article]
    I'm sure I'll get written off as a conspiracy theorist, but the stated R naught value of this is supposed to be around Hepatitis C and HIV. How is it then that the medical professionals treating these patients are getting infected at a much higher rate than HIV or Hep C? Surely they aren't sharing needles or having sex with patients (I would hope).

    Here is an NYT article by an epidemiologist and biosecurity expert Michael Osterholm, of University Minnesota who states everything the media and public health officials are afraid to admit:

    I doubt he is a conspiracy theorist.
    Oct 15, 2014. 03:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment