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  • If This Is A True Sell-Off In Biotech... [View article]
    Yes, Schiller CAPE > 20 (upper quintile warning zone) , biotech PE at 27!

    The future value of every investment is a function of its present price. The higher the price you pay, the lower your return will be. - Graham.

    cash is good. But hey its still a world QE party with China bringing some to the punch bowl.
    Apr 28, 2015. 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD's Long-Term Outlook Remains Strong [View article]
    Because reports such as the NFP effect inflation expectations. Such expectations bid a currency up or down as they price in the interest rate pending change. So if the interest rate is near zero and the job numbers keep getting real strong then the central bank will either need to hike interest rates or start facing inflation headwinds.

    M2 has been busted for quite some time as an intermarket standalone tool anyways.
    Feb 26, 2015. 03:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zulauf: Fed won't hike this year [View news story]
    Recall however, that when Japan started recovering in the 96-00 the net inflows even into their bonds also bouyed the Nikkei, this was as the Yen appreciated 10%. The relationship between a strengthening currency is not always bearish for stocks. Net inflows into US bonds could have a pinball effect of boosting equities too if the US is deemed a safe haven.

    My guess...the world takes cheap Euros and Yen and carry trades them for higher yielding equities and other appreciating currencies such as the dollar.
    Jan 24, 2015. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Gold Prices Have Been Declining [View article]
    "Gold is a precious metal" What is one's definition of precious?

    If stranded on a desert island with no water a diamond is worthless, and water, with a far greater supply is now "precious". On that island, baseball cards and gold are worth about the same.

    The value of every asset is relative to a covariance of factors at that moment in time.
    Nov 7, 2014. 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY And The U.S. Economic Index Head In Different Directions In October [View article]
    Interesting read and similar to a relational data model I'm creating. Thanks for sharing. You have a very similar approach to my model whereas I use 5 economies data to hone in on currency pair inefficiencies.

    I did also pick up today that the on balance volume of $SPY is making a lower high, which coupled with SPYs higher high is another bearish divergence to note.
    Nov 6, 2014. 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Ebola Fears: What To Do And What Not To Do [View article]
    Correct - Ebola was simply the catalyst needed to fuel the selling that was already underway. And good riddance, market was way too overbought and way too toppy anyhow.
    Oct 15, 2014. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Ebola Fears: What To Do And What Not To Do [View article]
    I wanted to buy it, but because of my signaling and what I take, inverse could not be bought by my rules. However, what I do want to see is the TNA correct which will then create the TZA dip for a mean reversion play I can use.
    Oct 15, 2014. 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Ebola Fears: What To Do And What Not To Do [View article]
    I'm sure I'll get written off as a conspiracy theorist, but the stated R naught value of this is supposed to be around Hepatitis C and HIV. How is it then that the medical professionals treating these patients are getting infected at a much higher rate than HIV or Hep C? Surely they aren't sharing needles or having sex with patients (I would hope).

    Here is an NYT article by an epidemiologist and biosecurity expert Michael Osterholm, of University Minnesota who states everything the media and public health officials are afraid to admit:

    I doubt he is a conspiracy theorist.
    Oct 15, 2014. 03:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scared Money: Where To Invest Now [View article]
    I'd argue trading is a zero sum game - options, Forex, commodities, etc. Dividends and assets with yields don't fit that bill since you could have a party who sells the asset for a gain even if the price had moved nowhere - because of the dividends they got.
    Oct 4, 2014. 06:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scared Money: Where To Invest Now [View article]
    even with Thursdays bullish hammer reversal and the follow through on Friday with NFP #'s, it was a bit curious that with the risk off day $UBT was still up eh? Its a nice hedge since so many markets are starting to show weakness. Or go $TLT if you fear volatility.
    Oct 4, 2014. 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD - The Bottom Is Here [View article]
    The thing, which was very unclear by the posting, and narrative of the author was that the bottom that he correctly/incorrectly called on a daily time frame had little to do with the 40% gains he made on JNUG trades this week. This is because he is trading 5M and 15M charts, and his strategy is largely agnostic to the daily timeframe or fundamental outlook.
    Sep 30, 2014. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD - The Bottom Is Here [View article]
    I like GLL. My personal play is I'm patiently waiting for UUP to mildly correct and then buy GLL, DUST, and keep shorting the Euro and Yen, unless the uptrend is invalidated. Its going to take a string of bad economic reports for that to happen though.
    Sep 26, 2014. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD - The Bottom Is Here [View article]
    Further to gelstretches comment $GLD is only a proxy for XAUUSD. You take your currency, you buy gold and you sell the gold for dollars. If the dollars keep getting worth more than you can buy less of them with your gold...basic currency pair trading.

    If you are trading a pair you want to look at both currencies in the pair, in this case, gold and the dollar. Looking at almost any FX chart the dollar is rallying against nearly all currencies.

    If you want to go long gold so be it, but it should have been against the Euro or Yen
    Sep 26, 2014. 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD - The Bottom Is Here [View article]
    jsIRA - my point is not that GLD will go up or down and you are right or wrong, my point is the logic in your system. You did not mention the Fed as a factor - just RSI and the chart pattern.

    Yellen could have said QE is resuming this week at a massive pace, and GLD would have popped. Then looking at your thesis, one would say "Yup, this system is working, I am right!" Then the practitioner of your system would have attributed it to the RSI and completely ignored a high volatility event.

    Think of it as a football match where there are two power forwards and they always score against this goalie. Then the next week, a rookie forward is introduced and you use the same plan, but the team does not score. This is because the coach used a successful play from the past but the current environment was different, since the statistical edge previously given by a power forward is missing. This is why there are no holy grail systems and only certain algos work at certain times. That's all I am saying.
    Sep 18, 2014. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD - The Bottom Is Here [View article]
    But the problem remains according to your thesis that the low RSI <30 was supposed to act as a catalyst for the upward move, as you noted it has had a 100% accuracy on a small sample size. You now state that Yellen FOMC minutes caused the move and that negates your hypothesis that the RSI is the primary variable responsible for its movement.

    The logic does not compute.

    The Fed is controlling these markets; and the markets aren't markets, they are extensions of monetary policy. Ergo, the technical and fundamental tools previously used on actual markets may lack the same efficacy as before.
    Sep 18, 2014. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment