Salvation by Innovation's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/1014295/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1012261/comments?source=feed#comment-11726711 11726711
There's no way of knowing that sorry. Considering Liberty bought 600 million shares in a 63 cent price range from 2.12 to 2.75 a share I would think that most of the buyback would happen with the share price being under $3.50 a share.

"You speculate that it goes to $5. When?"
My best guess is that the buyback will last 1.5-2 years to complete so this would be some time in 2015 likely.

"Now what happens when Liberty wants to unload its 700-900 million high basis shares?"
They don't have to unload all of them to get their money back especially if the share price when they sell the shares is substantially higher then when they bought the shares.

"So they dump them on the market. What does that do to the share price?" This will cause the share price to go down.

Basically what I see happening is Sirius buying back 900 million to a billion shares and liberty trying to sell 400-500 million shares at around $5 a share to get back its 2 billion dollar investment.]]> Sat, 17 Nov 2012 14:44:52 -0500
There's no way of knowing that sorry. Considering Liberty bought 600 million shares in a 63 cent price range from 2.12 to 2.75 a share I would think that most of the buyback would happen with the share price being under $3.50 a share.

"You speculate that it goes to $5. When?"
My best guess is that the buyback will last 1.5-2 years to complete so this would be some time in 2015 likely.

"Now what happens when Liberty wants to unload its 700-900 million high basis shares?"
They don't have to unload all of them to get their money back especially if the share price when they sell the shares is substantially higher then when they bought the shares.

"So they dump them on the market. What does that do to the share price?" This will cause the share price to go down.

Basically what I see happening is Sirius buying back 900 million to a billion shares and liberty trying to sell 400-500 million shares at around $5 a share to get back its 2 billion dollar investment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1012261/comments?source=feed#comment-11683181 11683181 Fri, 16 Nov 2012 10:16:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/998771/comments?source=feed#comment-11522101 11522101
Their is no guarantee that their will be a recession if we drive over the so called fiscal cliff. American businesses have grown under much higher taxes then what the rates are about to change to. Many of the largest sectors in our economy have a lot of good things working for them.

Housing - home-builders can build homes again as the oversupply from the bubble is starting to correct itself. Foreclosures are likely to take longer under an Obama administration meaning those homes will likely go on the market slower. Interest rates will remain at historic lows.

Automotive - Many Americans have put off buying a new car since the 2008 financial crisis. As they get older and older they are likely to decide to replace them keeping auto sales steady and strong. Interest rates are also low making them cheaper to finance.

Energy - The shale oil/natural gas boom will continue. Cars will continue to become more energy efficient keeping the price of oil from skyrocketing. We will also start building the first nuclear power plants in decades. Coal will probably not do so well with Natural gas prices so cheap.

Construction - Will do well in the northeast because they have to rebuild after hurricane Sandy.

Defense contractors will probably feel a lot of pain after we go over the fiscal cliff. They will make some cuts and adjustments and they will move on and survive.

Then again their is always the possibility of it sending us into a second great depression. It all depends on how American businesses, citizens and government choose to face the challenges in front of them.

]]> Mon, 12 Nov 2012 17:38:24 -0500
Their is no guarantee that their will be a recession if we drive over the so called fiscal cliff. American businesses have grown under much higher taxes then what the rates are about to change to. Many of the largest sectors in our economy have a lot of good things working for them.

Housing - home-builders can build homes again as the oversupply from the bubble is starting to correct itself. Foreclosures are likely to take longer under an Obama administration meaning those homes will likely go on the market slower. Interest rates will remain at historic lows.

Automotive - Many Americans have put off buying a new car since the 2008 financial crisis. As they get older and older they are likely to decide to replace them keeping auto sales steady and strong. Interest rates are also low making them cheaper to finance.

Energy - The shale oil/natural gas boom will continue. Cars will continue to become more energy efficient keeping the price of oil from skyrocketing. We will also start building the first nuclear power plants in decades. Coal will probably not do so well with Natural gas prices so cheap.

Construction - Will do well in the northeast because they have to rebuild after hurricane Sandy.

Defense contractors will probably feel a lot of pain after we go over the fiscal cliff. They will make some cuts and adjustments and they will move on and survive.

Then again their is always the possibility of it sending us into a second great depression. It all depends on how American businesses, citizens and government choose to face the challenges in front of them.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/892981/comments?source=feed#comment-9947511 9947511
That's total speculation on my part so take it for what it is.]]> Thu, 27 Sep 2012 20:10:20 -0400
That's total speculation on my part so take it for what it is.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/892981/comments?source=feed#comment-9946721 9946721 Thu, 27 Sep 2012 19:41:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/889121/comments?source=feed#comment-9901341 9901341 My guess is they won't play that card unless SiriusXm board won't go along with a reasonable share buyback.

Stephen feel free to correct me if I'm wrong on any of those points.]]> Wed, 26 Sep 2012 18:16:05 -0400 My guess is they won't play that card unless SiriusXm board won't go along with a reasonable share buyback.

Stephen feel free to correct me if I'm wrong on any of those points.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/879291/comments?source=feed#comment-9683731 9683731
This statement reminds me how AMD's board of directors once thought they could replace their CEO Dirk Meyer with anyone they wanted because he wasn't moving into the mobile market fast enough for them. If you can find any long-term AMD investors ask them how well that worked out.

In my opinion not many people could replace Mel Karmazin. Karmazin understands the radio business but also understands how to run a business in general. Karmazin isn't irreplaceable but the odds of replacing him with a bad apple are much higher than getting a good one.]]> Thu, 20 Sep 2012 18:11:05 -0400
This statement reminds me how AMD's board of directors once thought they could replace their CEO Dirk Meyer with anyone they wanted because he wasn't moving into the mobile market fast enough for them. If you can find any long-term AMD investors ask them how well that worked out.

In my opinion not many people could replace Mel Karmazin. Karmazin understands the radio business but also understands how to run a business in general. Karmazin isn't irreplaceable but the odds of replacing him with a bad apple are much higher than getting a good one.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/660471/comments?source=feed#comment-6475741 6475741
Thanks for the idea.]]> Fri, 15 Jun 2012 17:28:49 -0400
Thanks for the idea.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/660471/comments?source=feed#comment-6464761 6464761
Thanks for the feedback.]]> Fri, 15 Jun 2012 12:35:12 -0400
Thanks for the feedback.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/660471/comments?source=feed#comment-6463601 6463601
"Untaxes? Untaxes aren't as bad as the usual redistribution methods. But the idea that some tiny untax would have any impact in areas up to their eyeballs in confiscation, corruption, redistribution is really silly. But the junk food examples are apropos."

Texas style solutions for everyone! Create jobs first, worry about the quality of jobs second.

"Banks? European banks are into every crooked deal, every shady deal, every speculative deal on the planet. So obviously they need to shift more risk and cost. I mean how do you expect crooks and gamblers to maximize their OPM skimming operations if they can't shift costs to someone."

This comment seems kind of insulting to crooks and gamblers. Lets be fair here, some crooks and gamblers ACTUALLY make money were as European banks don't.]]> Fri, 15 Jun 2012 12:12:32 -0400
"Untaxes? Untaxes aren't as bad as the usual redistribution methods. But the idea that some tiny untax would have any impact in areas up to their eyeballs in confiscation, corruption, redistribution is really silly. But the junk food examples are apropos."

Texas style solutions for everyone! Create jobs first, worry about the quality of jobs second.

"Banks? European banks are into every crooked deal, every shady deal, every speculative deal on the planet. So obviously they need to shift more risk and cost. I mean how do you expect crooks and gamblers to maximize their OPM skimming operations if they can't shift costs to someone."

This comment seems kind of insulting to crooks and gamblers. Lets be fair here, some crooks and gamblers ACTUALLY make money were as European banks don't.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/660471/comments?source=feed#comment-6463151 6463151
What would you do to create a flexible labor market in Europe?

How and what bureaucracy would you eliminate?

Spain has just under 25% unemployment (the level of US unemployment during the great depression.). What would you recommend we do to create jobs to get the population working again?

How would you propose we handle the debt to get to the structurally balanced budget you recommend?]]> Fri, 15 Jun 2012 11:59:57 -0400
What would you do to create a flexible labor market in Europe?

How and what bureaucracy would you eliminate?

Spain has just under 25% unemployment (the level of US unemployment during the great depression.). What would you recommend we do to create jobs to get the population working again?

How would you propose we handle the debt to get to the structurally balanced budget you recommend?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/660471/comments?source=feed#comment-6462831 6462831
It definitely would take a miracle for Germany to ease off of austerity and allow the struggling European countries to cut taxes and try to strengthen their economies before trying to deal with their debt loads.

Thanks for the feedback. ]]> Fri, 15 Jun 2012 11:53:32 -0400
It definitely would take a miracle for Germany to ease off of austerity and allow the struggling European countries to cut taxes and try to strengthen their economies before trying to deal with their debt loads.

Thanks for the feedback. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/660471/comments?source=feed#comment-6462441 6462441 Fri, 15 Jun 2012 11:48:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/660471/comments?source=feed#comment-6462201 6462201
That is definitely an interesting idea. Since I have a strong belief in personnel responsibility, I really wouldn't want to tell someone how they would have to spend money we give them as part of a stimulus. I am never apposed to fiscal stimulus when a country is in a deep recession, so I definitely would support giving people a little extra cash to throw around.

Most central banks manipulate the value of their nations currency artificially one way or another. Disarming our Feds ability to do this would put us at a severe disadvantage during the next global recession. Traditionally during recessions the USA lowers the value of our money to help stimulate manufacturing and trade. The public sector adds job and the combination of the two measures jump start our economy. Taking away the Feds ability to do this during the next recession when Brazil/Russia/China lower their currencies to make their goods more competitive our currency wouldn't be affected by the price manipulation of the Fed and our manufacturing sector would be hurt.

Right now because of the Citizens United ruling by the supreme court we have special interest groups spending more on political campaigns then politicians on their own campaign. If you could stop that money from getting involved someway then we would be on to something. I wouldn't limit contributions though. I would limit the amount of money a politician can spend on a race to a much lower level then they raise today say a $100 million limit on a presidential race. This would even the playing field between candidates so every candidate had an equal amount of speech.

I might be wrong on Canadian policies but I thought donations from corporations and unions were banned. ]]> Fri, 15 Jun 2012 11:44:19 -0400
That is definitely an interesting idea. Since I have a strong belief in personnel responsibility, I really wouldn't want to tell someone how they would have to spend money we give them as part of a stimulus. I am never apposed to fiscal stimulus when a country is in a deep recession, so I definitely would support giving people a little extra cash to throw around.

Most central banks manipulate the value of their nations currency artificially one way or another. Disarming our Feds ability to do this would put us at a severe disadvantage during the next global recession. Traditionally during recessions the USA lowers the value of our money to help stimulate manufacturing and trade. The public sector adds job and the combination of the two measures jump start our economy. Taking away the Feds ability to do this during the next recession when Brazil/Russia/China lower their currencies to make their goods more competitive our currency wouldn't be affected by the price manipulation of the Fed and our manufacturing sector would be hurt.

Right now because of the Citizens United ruling by the supreme court we have special interest groups spending more on political campaigns then politicians on their own campaign. If you could stop that money from getting involved someway then we would be on to something. I wouldn't limit contributions though. I would limit the amount of money a politician can spend on a race to a much lower level then they raise today say a $100 million limit on a presidential race. This would even the playing field between candidates so every candidate had an equal amount of speech.

I might be wrong on Canadian policies but I thought donations from corporations and unions were banned. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/636981/comments?source=feed#comment-6321761 6321761
5-7 years wouldn't be a realistic time frame for a country of our size to accomplish this. Just because the government sets a goal for doing something doesn't mean that the goal will be attempted or accomplished. Take for example the hydrogen fleet of cars proposed/researched by the Bush administration after 9/11. Washington doesn't try to solve problems they just try to talk about solving problems. They understand that voters are fickle and most complaints about not getting things done will die down before they can do to much harm to their parties election chances.

Guess the NG drilling "time out" is over. and what is the value of CHK, XOM, SD, APC, etc. then?

The value of CHK, XOM, SD, APC would likely all go down as they are all trying to switch to have a majority of their revenue from oil instead of natural gas because they realize how much of an unlimited supply of it America has. If the switch in 5-7 years was successful then the value of oil would plummet and the profits and share price of the above mentioned stocks would plummet with it.

These are just my first thoughts on the questions you ask. I am by no means an expert in the oil & gas industry so don't take them as gospel or anything.]]> Mon, 11 Jun 2012 17:50:12 -0400
5-7 years wouldn't be a realistic time frame for a country of our size to accomplish this. Just because the government sets a goal for doing something doesn't mean that the goal will be attempted or accomplished. Take for example the hydrogen fleet of cars proposed/researched by the Bush administration after 9/11. Washington doesn't try to solve problems they just try to talk about solving problems. They understand that voters are fickle and most complaints about not getting things done will die down before they can do to much harm to their parties election chances.

Guess the NG drilling "time out" is over. and what is the value of CHK, XOM, SD, APC, etc. then?

The value of CHK, XOM, SD, APC would likely all go down as they are all trying to switch to have a majority of their revenue from oil instead of natural gas because they realize how much of an unlimited supply of it America has. If the switch in 5-7 years was successful then the value of oil would plummet and the profits and share price of the above mentioned stocks would plummet with it.

These are just my first thoughts on the questions you ask. I am by no means an expert in the oil & gas industry so don't take them as gospel or anything.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/636981/comments?source=feed#comment-6249751 6249751
Exxon and Chevron would double their long term debt loads if they bought Chesapeake. They know Chesapeake debt load is unsustainable they will buy assets from them on the cheap but aren't going to consider buying CHK at all. Chesapeake is fighting for its survival. The major Nat gas/ oil players understand this and are probably considering not buying any of CHK assets because they could get them a lot cheaper in bankruptcy auctions. Please be careful if you are an investor in this company. I wish you the best and have a great weekend.]]> Fri, 08 Jun 2012 18:14:20 -0400
Exxon and Chevron would double their long term debt loads if they bought Chesapeake. They know Chesapeake debt load is unsustainable they will buy assets from them on the cheap but aren't going to consider buying CHK at all. Chesapeake is fighting for its survival. The major Nat gas/ oil players understand this and are probably considering not buying any of CHK assets because they could get them a lot cheaper in bankruptcy auctions. Please be careful if you are an investor in this company. I wish you the best and have a great weekend.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/645741/comments?source=feed#comment-6247641 6247641
The best thing for Europe is for the Euro to keep falling in value. This will help Germany with exports. It will help France, Italy & Spain with exports & tourism. It will help goods start to move threw Greek ports again as Northern Africa and the Middle East will have access to cheaper European goods. Europe needs a strong but not strongest currency to balance the needs of its importers and exporters.

During times of global recessions countries race to devalue their currency to get manufacturer and trade jump started. When America and China kept their currencies artificially low after the recession Europe didn't, because of this they couldn't get their economies up and running and are falling into recession AGAIN.

A lack of unity isn't the solution to their problems it is the cause of their problems. The combined resources of all of Europe will always be greater than the resources of Germany by itself. Confederacies don't work that well but if Europe wants out of this crisis they need to do it by forming a stronger union.

Sorry for the ranting and have a great weekend everyone!]]> Fri, 08 Jun 2012 16:56:23 -0400
The best thing for Europe is for the Euro to keep falling in value. This will help Germany with exports. It will help France, Italy & Spain with exports & tourism. It will help goods start to move threw Greek ports again as Northern Africa and the Middle East will have access to cheaper European goods. Europe needs a strong but not strongest currency to balance the needs of its importers and exporters.

During times of global recessions countries race to devalue their currency to get manufacturer and trade jump started. When America and China kept their currencies artificially low after the recession Europe didn't, because of this they couldn't get their economies up and running and are falling into recession AGAIN.

A lack of unity isn't the solution to their problems it is the cause of their problems. The combined resources of all of Europe will always be greater than the resources of Germany by itself. Confederacies don't work that well but if Europe wants out of this crisis they need to do it by forming a stronger union.

Sorry for the ranting and have a great weekend everyone!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/630991/comments?source=feed#comment-6050601 6050601
Thanks for bringing this point up!
This is the great conundrum facing are nation right now. The government doesn't have the common sense to spend money wisely. Private companies don't have the courage to spend money in times of uncertainty.]]> Sat, 02 Jun 2012 16:30:24 -0400
Thanks for bringing this point up!
This is the great conundrum facing are nation right now. The government doesn't have the common sense to spend money wisely. Private companies don't have the courage to spend money in times of uncertainty.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/630991/comments?source=feed#comment-6010671 6010671 The only problem is getting the government to spend money wisely seems like an impossible endeavor. They are just trying to pay the favors that founded their campaigns back with tax payer money.
We need to bring in new political parties that aren't owned by anyone. Until then anything the government does won't have the best interest of the American people in mind.]]> Fri, 01 Jun 2012 11:23:38 -0400 The only problem is getting the government to spend money wisely seems like an impossible endeavor. They are just trying to pay the favors that founded their campaigns back with tax payer money.
We need to bring in new political parties that aren't owned by anyone. Until then anything the government does won't have the best interest of the American people in mind.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/625001/comments?source=feed#comment-5965501 5965501 Thu, 31 May 2012 08:43:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/625001/comments?source=feed#comment-5965431 5965431 Thu, 31 May 2012 08:42:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/625001/comments?source=feed#comment-5965351 5965351 Thu, 31 May 2012 08:41:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/625001/comments?source=feed#comment-5944981 5944981
Thank you for your feedback.]]> Wed, 30 May 2012 14:50:20 -0400
Thank you for your feedback.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/625001/comments?source=feed#comment-5944881 5944881 Wed, 30 May 2012 14:48:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/625001/comments?source=feed#comment-5944851 5944851 Wed, 30 May 2012 14:47:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/625001/comments?source=feed#comment-5944791 5944791 "It seems to me that the real reward for longevity is dividend reinvestment and its compounding affect."
Dividend reinvestment plans are probably the best way to attain long term gains in dividend stocks. That is not to say that they are available or best for everyone in every circumstance. Some people may need the dividend income to supplement the retirement income. This idea also rewards DRIP investors and investors who hold the stock over the long term for the income it produces for them.

Thanks for the feedback. It is greatly appreciated.]]> Wed, 30 May 2012 14:46:52 -0400 "It seems to me that the real reward for longevity is dividend reinvestment and its compounding affect."
Dividend reinvestment plans are probably the best way to attain long term gains in dividend stocks. That is not to say that they are available or best for everyone in every circumstance. Some people may need the dividend income to supplement the retirement income. This idea also rewards DRIP investors and investors who hold the stock over the long term for the income it produces for them.

Thanks for the feedback. It is greatly appreciated.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/625001/comments?source=feed#comment-5939641 5939641
My thought on this is that as long as the company announces the declaration of this dividend and gives the required dates of record for qualification of this dividend and the ex date and the final date of record. If all shareholders know the requirement to receive a dividend then all shareholders are equal in the sense that they know what they must do to receive a dividend. If you buy a stock after the ex-dividend date, you aren't entitled to the dividend everyone who owned the stock before the ex-dividend date will get. I wouldn't consider the person who bought the stock after the ex-div date wasn't equal to the other shareholders who got paid the dividend. Both shareholders should have had access to information that would have let them know when they needed to purchase the dividend to receive it.

I am however not an expert on SEC rules and regulations so you might be right on this. Thanks for bringing this up and adding your insight.]]> Wed, 30 May 2012 12:55:15 -0400
My thought on this is that as long as the company announces the declaration of this dividend and gives the required dates of record for qualification of this dividend and the ex date and the final date of record. If all shareholders know the requirement to receive a dividend then all shareholders are equal in the sense that they know what they must do to receive a dividend. If you buy a stock after the ex-dividend date, you aren't entitled to the dividend everyone who owned the stock before the ex-dividend date will get. I wouldn't consider the person who bought the stock after the ex-div date wasn't equal to the other shareholders who got paid the dividend. Both shareholders should have had access to information that would have let them know when they needed to purchase the dividend to receive it.

I am however not an expert on SEC rules and regulations so you might be right on this. Thanks for bringing this up and adding your insight.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/625001/comments?source=feed#comment-5935841 5935841 Wed, 30 May 2012 11:27:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/625001/comments?source=feed#comment-5934511 5934511 "What's in it for the company though...why would a KO want to do this?"

The main reason I can think of is price stability. I also think KO is interested in helping out long term shareholders. That is why they consistently raise their dividend.
Thanks for the feedback and great question.]]> Wed, 30 May 2012 11:00:38 -0400 "What's in it for the company though...why would a KO want to do this?"

The main reason I can think of is price stability. I also think KO is interested in helping out long term shareholders. That is why they consistently raise their dividend.
Thanks for the feedback and great question.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/625001/comments?source=feed#comment-5928761 5928761 Great idea!
Might take an act of divine intervention to get politicians to get it threw congress, but I would love it if it were in place.]]> Wed, 30 May 2012 09:01:29 -0400 Great idea!
Might take an act of divine intervention to get politicians to get it threw congress, but I would love it if it were in place.]]>