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33_Alpha

33_Alpha
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  • The Buckle: Upside On Special Dividends, Margins, And Upgrades [View article]
    Hey Stephen,

    Thanks for your reply.

    Arthur
    Mar 22 09:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Buckle: Upside On Special Dividends, Margins, And Upgrades [View article]
    Hey Steve,

    Thanks for the article and I found it very useful.

    I am long BKE and have been puzzled by the high short interest. So your article shed some light and make me start to know the other side of the coin.

    Some questions here:

    1, In your view, would the age of management be an issue here? BKE, seems not different from Apple and Disney, was ran by one leader, Denis Nelson, for a long time. Nelson is 62, entering retirement age. So it seems to me one concern of the company is its successor in leadership.

    2, Another concern of mine is Buckle's expansion plan. They have been expanding in a very conservative way and chose the best locations possible when starting new stores.

    Now, the issue could be ...... such premium locations are quite limited. This could limit the expansion speed of the company.

    In any case, looking forward to hear your thought,
    33_Alpha
    Mar 22 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Question Asked About Labeling Stocks Undervalued [View article]
    Not to make fun of you.

    But other than Graham said that P/E should be no greater than 15, and value no greater than 1.5. Are there any reason why these numbers are used?

    We can go on and on.
    Mar 6 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Question Asked About Labeling Stocks Undervalued [View article]
    Other than Benjamin said it. Do you have any reason why 22.5 is the right number?

    33
    Feb 15 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Company Is Killing It In Retail [View article]
    I am long BKE. It's probably the most understated apparel company.

    One question I have is that there seems to be a constant short interest. Reza: do you have any insights why?

    33
    Feb 7 05:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From Microsoft: An Outlook On Apple [View article]
    Rob,
    I like your cautious tone.
    One thing we should consider is that although MSFT was overvalued and AAPL is not. AAPL's EPS may have pressure in the next year. That is to say many see AAPL's P/E may increase.

    This makes historical stock price comparison not as useful as tools such as DCF. By plugging in numbers of how optimistic/pessimistic you are, you can calculate the different values. Some analyses I saw lately (on SA) does show that AAPL seems to be undervalued by at least 20% even in pessimistic scenario. That's probably the ultimate reason why being bulls may be more rational than being bears at this price level.

    33
    Jan 29 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Intellectual Sloppiness Of Mr. Market [View instapost]
    Good Luck. Mr. Micro. We'll see how goes.

    33
    Jan 29 01:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Still A Buy Even Though Amazon And Google Have Better Products [View article]
    Hey James,
    First of all, great article. I also appreciate you stick to your gun.

    Me too, is an Apple long. Here is a question for you. My plan is to buy Apple now, Apple at $300, at $225, at $150. So I am anticipating to the irrationality of the Market to cause Apple to tumble more. The last number is slightly bigger than the amount of cash per share.

    I am personally very happy if Apple's price goes down. With my fund, Apple at $700 means I can't buy too many share of it.

    So my question for you is this: how likely we are getting to each scenario? During the next half a year, before there is any product refresh, it is possible that the public fear, fan by the analyst, would make Apple to go down to $300. Are there any forces which will prevent Apple to go down to $225? e.g. If Apple goes down to say a certain price, would it trigger a certain type of mutual fund to buy it more?

    With your experience as a hedge fund manager, I believe you might be able to teach me more on this topic.

    Thanks in advance for your valuable time. If you are busy, feel free to ignore this post.

    33_Alpha

    Jan 27 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Apple Fell To -$100 Today [View instapost]
    Thanks for your comment. On long term investment, I am afraid I am usually "too financially based and too simple".

    But in long term investment, really, are there knowledge which is more complicated than "money earned has to be bigger money spent" and.... compound interest.

    33

    Jan 23 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Earnings Fall Is Completely Unjustified [View article]
    When I saw the AH 10% drop, the only thing I can think of is "madness", especially given the valuation.

    So Bill, here's a question for you. I have never been a trading guy. (I usually hold stocks for 3+ years.) I notice that you recommendation seem to say you would like to buy AAPL in short term. Would you think the current pessimism a kind of headwind?

    I also wonder what the cause of such pessimism is. Please tell me what you think.

    33
    Jan 23 06:24 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Can Shares Rebound? [View article]
    Bill,

    Thanks for your article. As always, I find it very helpful.

    I also checked out deagol's estimate. As always he is on the super-bull side. Let's see how it goes.

    Sounds funny to say so. After reading all the reports, I simply feel excited to see the result, regardless of whether it's good or bad. Ah, I must be filing a divorce with my money. :)

    33
    Jan 22 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing Apple's Guidance To Actual Results [View article]
    Hey Bill,

    I am glad that you write this article for new Apple investors. But I am appalled by the fact some people don't realize Apple almost alway beat its own guidance.

    33
    Jan 14 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Needs To Answer These Questions [View article]
    Hey Bill,

    For some reasons, crap like "Apple Now Priced for 4%" is on the top ten list. People should read more rational like yours than sensational stuff.

    Keep on.

    33
    Dec 18 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SMTP Inc.: A High Growth Email Marketing Company With An Attractive Dividend And Takeover Potential [View article]
    Hey Ben,

    Thanks for your insight. Good luck with your position.

    33
    Nov 28 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SMTP Inc.: A High Growth Email Marketing Company With An Attractive Dividend And Takeover Potential [View article]
    Hi Ben,

    Thanks for your answer. To disclose, I am long SMTP.OB as well. So their deal with Bowen interests me as well.

    Several comments/questions here:
    * When SMTP went public, they went through an unconventional part of not using an investment bank. They also trade in OTC. These two factors combined, is the likely reason why their volume is so low.

    My question here is this : Would you think this unconventional setting affect the valuation? Is Bowen suitable for this kind of deal?

    * Another question is obviously the potential valuation of the company if it was bought. Obviously, 16M for a money-earning startup, for 10 years, with no debts, with growing revenue, sounds a bit low. I wonder if you have any target number in your mind.

    Thanks in advance for your time,
    33
    Nov 28 02:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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