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33_Alpha

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  • Why I See Apple Reaching $600 Within A Year [View article]
    Hey Romano,

    I am long Apple as well. Though you might notice that one important technical indicator of Apple - RSI - is showing a strong signal that the stocks will pull back. I wonder if you notice this as well and how you would respond.

    33_Alpha
    Feb 29 02:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MBAs, Gimmicks and Apple's Culture [View article]
    Hey Rocco,

    Once again, I think this is a great article and thanks for your work. As a programmer and a former researcher in AI, I have life experience similar to yours. Occasionally I found that some of my tech colleagues discussed Apple from a pure technical perspective and missed the big picture of her development.

    I wish there are more authors who can go beyond the metrics, which we all understand how its uses and misuses. There must be more companies which are similar to Apple. I wish I can invest on them in early stages, just like I did on Apple.

    33_Alpha
    Feb 27 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Microsoft Continue To Drive Through Its 52-Week High? [View article]
    Hey Ben,

    I enjoy what you write. You are also taking a difficult position to be a MSFT long.

    The part I take issue is that I don't think MS's structure is anywhere like Apple.

    In MS, there are multiple P/Ls and each of them might not know what others are doing. It doesn't seem to have any syndicated effort among different departments to launch a product.

    Another big issue: MS tends to go after a market when other companies successfully cease it. In Gate's time, this strategy won them many important market such as IE in the browser market or XBox in the video console market.

    In Balmer's time though, you can see such a strategy is spreading MS effort thin in development. They lost battle after battle when they chase in domain they have no expertise. In music players, they come up with Zune which is a complete Waterloo despite they refuse to admit. They are still catching up on search engines. That gives me a feeling that they are creating second-rated product.

    So, I don't really share your optimism for long term future of MS. Your conclusion of MS hitting 37.5 is likely correct. From a pure technical standpoint, I won't be surprised if it can go higher - simply because it might break through certain average lines.

    Going to 37.5 would mean a ~20% gain. That's nice but it's not a good indication of the actual health of MS.


    33_Alpha
    Feb 26 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Should Not Pay A Dividend (Or Do Anything Else Incredibly Stupid) [View article]
    Hey Guys,

    For where Apple can put the cash, maybe they can put it back to R&D and bring up another killer product. As an investor, *that* would be what I want.

    Think when iMac, iPod, iPhone and iPad came out. The stock price almost always have a jump. If you compared that to dividend, it is at most 2% p.a. So I really don't get why the "dividend theory" get so much supports now given that we all know that the next iX is coming. (The long rumored iTV.....)

    if you say all the innovation of Apple are all gone (like MSFT, DELL, HP, etc), then I can see the reason.....

    The one thing I learned from this discussion though.... is that not many people understand the nature of Apple like Rocco does. This probably prompts me to buy more Apple's stock in future.

    33_Alpha
    Feb 24 09:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Should Not Pay A Dividend (Or Do Anything Else Incredibly Stupid) [View article]
    Hey Rocco,
    Many have written on the vice of paying dividend for growth companies, but not many has arguments as sharp as yours.

    I secretly wish you can write something about people who advocate stock splits as well. :)

    Great Article and Keep on Sir.
    33_Alpha
    Feb 24 03:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Google Mediocre? [View article]
    Hey Dana,

    I agreed with you that Page has been doing the right thing to refocus Google's effort. It is hard to ignore that Google encounter fierce competition on all fronts of its business. There are no immediate signs that Google would eventually prevail. In fact, thing doesn't look up too well ....

    Say on social network, for Plus, though the subscription rate is high but the number of people stay there is low. Facebook is still a distant number one.

    On devise, Android's margin is way lower than Apple's. As you suggested, it is a question on how to make MMI a profitable revenue stream.

    There are always search of course, but it is also fiercely attacked by Bing. Bing's attack, unlike Yahoo's, is not feeble and Bing became the new second in the search race.

    That makes me feel dubious about the future of Google. Don't get me wrong, I still own a bit of its stocks. (As you said, it is still better than NFLX) Making a big position is probably a tough thing.

    Thanks for your post anyway.

    33_Alpha
    Feb 23 06:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Google Being Reckless? [View article]
    Hey Jeff,

    I like your account of mishaps done by Google recently. One thing though, we all understand that Page's obsession of Plus is based on a valid reason - Google needs to be diversified from just a search company. This probably addresses your concerns.

    If I were the owner of Google, I would probably do the same thing. Because I found that years of liberal policy in innovation within the company don't yield any extra gain, this is a time to cut and focus on a few.

    In a nutshell, I agree with Page's decision - focus on one or two products and leverage them in future. Microsoft was a good example, after windows, its manpower were diverted to Office. That was correct and bought her the second gold mine.

    The privacy concern is surely a problem for users. From the investors' point of view? I got to ask, what else can Google do?

    33_Alpha
    Feb 22 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why History Should Worry Apple [View article]
    Hey Stephen,

    I appreciate your article, you have the courage to say something opinionated. Though I am an Apple long, I think your article is quite thought provoking.

    Saying so, I guess my general response to arguments is equally doubtful to fan boy who put Apple price to be $3000 without any justification. Your premise is that because "great companies always fall, so a great company like Apple would one day fall as well".

    It is a true statement yet it is close to tautological. (i.e. you are basically saying nothing.) Like a person, business was quite known to go down with a life span. Like Leyman Brothers, it starts with 1850 and last for 159 years. Then it dies. So people who made the statement that "Leyman Brother would eventually fall." 158 years ago will be correct. Yet the prediction is not that helpful as well.

    As an Apple long-time investor, I also knew that the growth of Apple is limiting and one day it will fall. So I want to know when to sell and at what price. More importantly, how will it fail? By what cause?

    I suggest you to take a look of Richard Bloch, "Apple's Growth Into 2016: Targeting That $1000 Milestone". Notice this, I appreciate Bloch's writing, not because he is long Apple, but because he build several scenarios to predict the future. In his article, he gave a conservative situation where Apple can only go to $600 in 2016, which I found quite realistic.

    33_Alpha
    Feb 22 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Has Reached A Crossroad And Needs iTV [View article]
    Hey Christopher,

    Great article. With a close look, I believe you have tied user-interface with only one single dimension: screen size. This is unlikely a good criterion.

    Consider the recent news on Google eye glass. It is essentially a wearable computing device, and as a class of product they usually cause dizziness of users.

    Suppose Google figured out something we didn't know. This new eye glass device could be a disruptive device which is a new UI to all users. It is also a different market too.

    Once you dig into user interface, there are many similar examples. Apple is probably aware of them and more than we do.

    In a conclusion, though I think your premise that Apple should come out with a TV is correct, I believe the reason was wrong.

    33_Alpha
    Feb 22 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Apple to Pull Back To $450 Before Going To $700 And Beyond [View article]
    Hi Simit,

    I enjoy your post. I found it opinionated but thought-provoking. Some comments here,

    On the part of Asian strategy: we should consider that what Apple sells is more the American's life style than just the all-in-one phone there. There is a huge market for iphone (and hence there was the Beijing riot in front of an Apple store.) So we know that there are great demand of iPhone in China.

    As for the strategic part, here is a thought : despite Amazon and Google might have well defined strategies, they don't seem to be problem free.

    Consider Google first, Android's open source implementation had caused an obvious market segmentation. It's a question if mobile Ad alone can make much money. Google search ads also have decreasing margin - this are alarming signs.

    For Amazon, we all knew that she attempts to increase revenue by spreading the device Kindle Fire (and she succeeded). There seems to incur too much cost though : on every Fire, Amazon lost around $16. Yes, we knew it is its growing strategy. But for how long? Amazon is dealing with the likes of Google and Apple, it is a big question how long will Amazon needs to burn its money.
    Feb 19 04:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Right Way To Evaluate Apple: Divide By 10 [View article]
    The purpose of this article is to teach small investors that buying Apple is not as expensive as they thought. We all know this is psychological. For small investors though, the biggest problems to overcome are probably all psychological.
    Feb 18 02:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Goldman Connection [View article]
    It's a speculation but it does connect the dots. Great post!
    Feb 17 11:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: The New Coca-Cola [View article]
    Great post Dana,

    Very well said:
    "Americans are pretty jaded on America, but for people outside this country, that can still be a powerful mental image, one well worth paying for."

    33
    Feb 16 08:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Worried About Apple Growth [View article]
    Hey Patrick,
    Though I am long AAPL, I feel that retail investors should be cautious with the recent rally. With the current RSI, it is possible that in short term there will be a correction.

    Saying so, I found your main argument is not too elaborated ...... For one, even if we accept your premise that the wireless carriers are not happy, they might still be forced to sell the iphone or ipad because of the market demand.

    Your argument can work if both the market demand decreases and the wireless carriers stop to be sales channels of Apple. That could happen but unlikely.

    In any case, I enjoyed your article - though I found it has weaknesses - the argument is rather interesting.

    33_Alpha
    33_Alpha
    Feb 15 05:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready To Be Disappointed With Apple [View article]
    Hey ChartProphet,

    Thanks for your article
    You raised 8 risks: 4 of them, "Steep and unsustainable rise in stock price", "Massive market cap.", "Massive expectations.", "Technical divergences (slowing momentum)" are in the same vein. Basically, you are saying "The company is too big to grow any more.".

    The fallacy I can perceive is that factor alone is not a good predictor of when Apple will fall. Indeed, we know that some day Apple will fall but how do we know if it is Microsoft in 95? Or Microsoft in 05? This makes me dismiss those four factors altogether.

    Comments on the other 4 factors

    "Tech IPOs have been weak": The relationship you stated is too weak. Currently most of Apple's revenue are driven from consumer products. May be you can elaborate a bit.

    "World markets' strong overhead risks": Falling stock market not only affects Apple but all stocks. Do you recommend us to abandon stocks altogether? And Of course, why just Apple?

    "Steve Jobs' death and future leadership": This is indeed a factor. In "Inside Apple", the cultist nature of Apple's management. Many in Apple seems to idolize Steve Jobs as a person when he was alive.

    On the other hand, you should also consider that Apple doesn't seem to have any trouble so far without Steve Jobs. The execution still seems to be flawless. This might mean your statement is true but we need to put a time stamp there. May be Apple will start to have issues after X number of years. I guess the current consensus is that it will take 3-4 years for leadership start be a problem.

    Growing competition : I found this point to be the most convincing one. I have nothing to add.
    Jan 26 12:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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