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33_Alpha

33_Alpha
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  • Vringo's Alpha Is Set To Reverse [View article]
    Hey Modernist,

    Umm. I agreed with you, Vringo starts to attract speculators and has its fan boy. This volatility is something one should be cautious...... I was going to place a small bet on it but I was hesitant because there are just overwhelmingly positive side of opinion - just like many fraternity party, usually it's not that "awesome".

    I certainly hear you about the case becomes non-jury. Now, let's ask this, what if the case is really a jury-case, do we know much whether Altucher's claim is correct? And.... let's say if it is correct, do we have a situation where VRNG's patent can easily claim damage from GOOG? In the Apple case, legal morons like me can probably clearly see Samsung infringes Apple's patents.

    33_Alpha
    Aug 26, 2012. 01:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Why I Was So Wrong About Apple [View article]
    Hi Ashraf,

    I was like you back in 2004 and before I started to grok why Apple's product was "better', I had been stumbling on its apparent premium in price.

    My background is quite similar to yours, I have a degree in Electrical Engineering and my upringing have been Mathematics and Science. So I fell into the same problem you probably had ...... which is to judge something purely from a technical prospective.

    Then I read Eric Raymond's books, "The Art of Unix Programming", Raymond advocated everyone to learn Unix/Windows/Mac and understand why all three systems are important in real life. I followed that advice and ended up understand why many artists/designers or seemingly technically unsophisticated people love Apple.

    In concrete, I believe it is the design, the marketing, the sales, the customer experience of Apple which makes me changed. Those once you delve into it, it's extremely complicated matter by themselves.

    This is an interesting perspective, I feel that this thinking helps me navigate a lot of investment other than Apple. I just hope to share it to you and hope it to useful.

    And good luck investing Apple as well.

    33_Alpha.
    Aug 23, 2012. 08:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: More Pain Ahead [View article]
    Fair enough and thanks again.

    33_Alpha
    Aug 22, 2012. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: More Pain Ahead [View article]
    Hi Bill

    I want to ask a hypothetical question: if FB is at P/E = 25 to 30 and assume their strategy is the same as right now, would you consider to trade/long-term hold it?

    33_Alpha
    Aug 22, 2012. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Strength: By The Numbers [View article]
    Thanks for your corrections and answers. Let's wait for Q3's iPhone 5 release then.
    Aug 22, 2012. 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Strength: By The Numbers [View article]
    Bill,
    I think you painted a great picture of Apple's finance. As always I love to probe your thought a little bit further.

    My concern on Apple - especially after the Q2 report - is that gross margin has gone down from 42 to 38%. One plausible explanation is that Samsung Galaxy Series of smart phone are gaining on iPhone.
    (Here is one article gives such a hypothesis. http://bit.ly/MMZpx2)

    This sort of explains why the recent Apple-Samsung's trial has become a focus of the market. I am certainly intrigued because iPhone's market share has strategic importance - not only it is generating huge profit for Apple, it's also very likely the first product a consumer would buy and lead to other purchases from Apple (iPad, Mac, AppleTV).....

    I just wonder what's your take on the matter.

    33_Alpha.
    Aug 22, 2012. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: Limited Downside, With Potential For Google-Like Returns [View article]
    Mayer has done couple of things to energize Yahoo's engineers. Their sentiment has fundamentally changed. IMO, that's where Yahoo had issues : lack of product focus. So it seems to me the 70 mill package hadn't corrupted Mayer's mind (yet).

    The downside is many important S&M guys are leaving. So in short terms, revenue could be lower. I agree with the author though, YHOO starts to look attractive at this point.
    33_Alpha
    Aug 21, 2012. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Hits A New All-Time Low: Buy Soon [View article]
    Hey Rajiv,

    You certainly considered the case but miss the mobile revenue issue of FB. Factors you raise may give a few percentage of improvement in margin but missing mobile ad causing an overall of click through rate.

    The high P/E and the lack of growth factor are the real issues why FB is going down. If you think in this way, it's logical that it will go even lower.

    33_Alpha
    Aug 1, 2012. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Amazon, Stop Paying For Mediocrity [View article]
    The story I heard from the bulls is that after AMZN continue to increase revenue. They are able to reach to a level like WMT such that they can virtually control the e-commerce market.

    If we followed this logic, then at when AMZN close to monopolise the market, they should be able to have such bargaining power and reduce expenses on R&D .... and ..... eventually become insanely profitable.

    I don't really buy this story but I wonder what you think about it and where you think the logical holes are.
    Jul 31, 2012. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Green Mountain Hold $20? [View article]
    Aah... looks pretty gloomy then..... I honestly doubt their integrity in the first place..... though integrity and intelligence may not positively correlated.
    Jun 22, 2012. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Green Mountain Hold $20? [View article]
    Hey Bill,

    How do you see the future of GMCR after their K-cup patents expired? I guess this is the key now.

    33_Alpha
    Jun 21, 2012. 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Good To Be Long: Sirius, Herbalife, Green Mountain [View article]
    Hey Takeover Analyst,

    These 3 stocks are all value traps or at best highly speculative.

    HLF: potential ponzi scheme with much scientific doubt on the companies' product lately.
    GMCR: patents of K-cup only hold until the end of this year. There is also accounting problem of the company.
    SIRI: Struggle between original owner and the owning company. No one really knows what will happen.

    It doesn't seem to be prudent to own any one of them. This seems to be a case one should look beyond number and decides solely only on the situations of the companies.

    33_Alpha.
    Jun 18, 2012. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Is A Stronger Buy After Earnings [View article]
    Yes, thanks for the note.

    What it bugs me lately on LULU, or high-end apparel stocks in that regard, is that there seems to be a general trend of quarterly misses across the board of the industry. For example, a high-end teen apparel chains such as BKE has a monthly sales miss in April and May. And BKE is pretty well-known to have solid management.

    Of course, the cases of BKE and LULU are not comparable. e.g. teen spending is not women spending, BKE also suffers from aging executives. So the issues are not entirely the same.

    Some suggest that people are spending more on thrift store. I don't see any solid evidence but it's quite logical given the economy.

    In any case, I will still consider LULU as a buy - the timing could be bad, but the fundamental does look very appealing.
    Jun 13, 2012. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Is A Stronger Buy After Earnings [View article]
    Ah, I see. Just a rough mental calculation using formula

    COGS/Average Inventory. I got something like 2011 : ~5, 2010: ~6, 2009: ~4.

    I guess it is the yearly trend making people worry if LULU has an inventory turnover problem.

    Comparatively though 5 is still a relative high number compared to the industry. That doesn't seem to be not as bad. LULU also a fairly good enterprise transaction management system.

    In any case, I think this clear one worries of mine about LULU. Sorry for spamming your list for this seemingly unimportant question and thanks for your invaluable answers.
    Jun 13, 2012. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lululemon Is A Stronger Buy After Earnings [View article]
    I see. I can follow the rationale now. That makes a lot of sense to me.

    One last question: how would you usually look up historical inventory turnover? I know that currently the number is around 5, which is much better than the apparel industry 2.6. But I have difficulty to figure out the trend.

    Thanks in advance for your answer.
    33_Alpha
    Jun 13, 2012. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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