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  • Herbalife's Current Valuation Is Baseless, Stock Could Double [View article]

    First of all: Wake up and pour some cold water on your head. It's good for you.

    To you question: IBM or MCD. Why?

    You question was meant to argue that HLF is having a bigger return than IBM/MCD. That might be true. Yet at the same time, you are also taking an unexpected amount of risk - when a stock has potential accounting problem, the stock could plummet a great deal (80%,90%, or even 95%) . Just look at Allied, GMCR.

    The stocks with clean balance sheet. Nah, we don't have such problem.

    The part I might be able to agree with you ..... is that if we take more risk there are bigger reward. Though even if I agree with you, in the market, there are many other choices which you can choose. And ..... as far as we know ..... some of its adverse parties, such as Einhorn, couldn't figure out its weakness.

    I am signing off from this thread. Good luck.

    May 21, 2012. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Current Valuation Is Baseless, Stock Could Double [View article]
    Also, for those who stress the historical record of HLF. Remember that Allied and the Madoff's fund also have super-well financial record for 30+ years.
    May 19, 2012. 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Current Valuation Is Baseless, Stock Could Double [View article]
    >In the end, you still need to trust that the people plugging in the figures don't fudge the equation.

    Wrong concept.

    Trust is a great virtue for sure. But in the financial world, trust is established by firm sets of reporting rules. e.g. I trust a company is making money when everyone look at their paper trails and no one can raise any doubts.

    DE is not a saint and we can argue he has a selfish reason to do what he is doing. No big deal for me, it's just another workforce to pin point the potential problem of a company.

    I suggest you to look at some recent SA articles on HLF. Though DE is not on HLF any more, some have written on the short case and I found them very compelling. If I were you, I would read it even if I was a long.

    Finally, again, why would HLF be your only choice? In fact, even if you had lost money from the stock and switch to other now. Your expected opportunity cost of HLF going further down may be even lower. Of course, it is your decision....... I don't even hold any positions on the stock at all.

    May 19, 2012. 09:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Current Valuation Is Baseless, Stock Could Double [View article]
    In the case of GMCR, I can see Einhorn's arguments are very strong. Well..... you might still want to buy GMCR, but definitely after November this year, because no one knows what will happen with their patents expire.

    For HLF, Einhorn's questions, even if it is not raised by Einhorn, are worthwhile to consider for all investors. Let's be frank, we all experienced all sort of direct market scheme. If the customer base is not kept track, how do you know a company's financial?

    For people who are holding HLF, I am curious on what make them think HLF can be a superior company than say McDonald or IBM, which have clean balanced sheet and understandable business models. That honestly baffles me.

    May 18, 2012. 10:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mysterious Research In Motion [View article]
    If you are looking for a good turnaround story, I think Nokia is a better bet. It is the number 2 phone in recent ATT sales. Even more revealing is that there is a supply problem of the phone.

    On the other hand, RIMM operations seems to be ill-conceived, or at the very best, lack of imagination. For example, the recent "Wake-up" campaign in Australia. Do we really see any genuine value of such marketing campaign?

    I am still amazed by RIMM long. I know there are many things cooking ..... but hey .... if it has a tiny mistake, it's not surprising to see the stock price going a bit lower.

    Single digit P/E is not a guarantee of rebound. We should make sure buyer beware's sticker is placed on RIMM's shares.

    May 14, 2012. 04:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Key To Apple's Undervaluation And Amazon's Overvaluation [View article]
    In a nutshell, the adjective "growth" might have goated a bunch of fund managers to misprice Amazon.

    It sounds like a strong case to pair trade: short Amazon and long Apple at the same time.

    In any case, thanks Paulo, great analysis as always.

    May 14, 2012. 04:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Speculators Eye Green Mountain's 30% Upside [View article]
    Takeover Analyst,

    GMCR has an array of problems from multiple fronts. David Einhorn's famous presentation has pointed out GMCR has patent expiration and accounting problem. Mr. Santos of SA has written a gist on it.

    In a nutshell, though it might looks like a great turnaround story, it is filled with unknowns which could dramatically change future earnings. I don't believe DCF has accounted for that kind of situation.......

    May 13, 2012. 02:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Apple Is A Bad Bet [View article]
    Hey Difu,

    You have put some thinking on the subject and I have been searching for a reason why Apple could fail as I wrote in

    But you reasonings are not too convincing. Here is a point-by-point reply on the first 4 points,

    Unpredictability of growth: If you can't predict it, do multiple scenarios and look at the worst case. Richard Bloch did such an analysis and it is quite convincing - even under very adverse assumption, Apple's stock price should be higher in the next few years.

    P/E ratio: That ...... if you played with the numbers for a while, you can always come up with a way to present the number which are pessimistic. For your quote, I can also quote Peter Lynch once said that "with P/E equals to x, you need to have EPS bigger than x%" .

    P/B ratio: but how about their cash per share? Again, if you resort to multiples, there are many things on the balance sheet which are positive for Apple.

    Not good to blue colar worker: Think MCD and KO. I don't think they are known to be nice to workers but they are profit-making.
    Not that I like companies treat their workers badly. But suffice to say those are two different issues.

    May 11, 2012. 06:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook A Buy After The IPO? Examining Both Sides Of The Argument [View article]

    Under its objective tone, the article is subtly positive on FB. So I take it as well-written and well-thought but not necessarily balanced.

    For starter, historical analysis of P/Es for Apple and Google is not necessarily correlated to Facebook. Presenting the fact in this manner is to solicit a buy rather than presenting a balanced case.

    Another pretty important factor which the author fails to mention but got extensive coverage - Facebook's share was auctioned through sites such as Sharespost before the IPO. What are the effects of those shares? Why they are not mentioned in a well-balanced article?

    Saying all these, it doesn't mean I don't want to sample FB a bit. But hey fellows, I am actually biased, not "well-balanced".

    May 9, 2012. 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heads You Win, Tails You Win: How To Profit From Slices Of Apple With Just $5,000 In Your IRA [View article]
    Quote at 8:01 p.m. P.T.

    "What can go wrong if I do this trade?
    You can lose $4800."

    So one would lose then .... May be there is a third side of the coin then?
    May 8, 2012. 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's (MCD) reports global comparable-store sales rose 3.3% in April, short of the estimate of analysts calling for 5.2% growth. Sales gains in Europe outpaced the U.S., 3.5% vs 3.3%. In Asia, a 1.1% increase in sales was negatively impacted by results from Japan. Shares -2.4% premarket [View news story]
    @rtrdengineer, feel happy about it. Now you have a good chance to load up more (if you think the stocks is fair-valued).

    May 8, 2012. 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Main Problem With Green Mountain Coffee Roasters [View article]
    Hey keepingyouhonest,

    It's no use to act angry at this point. If you owned the stocks, may be selling is a good thing......

    Einhorn's reports are real - there are accounting problem of the company and it looks really shady. "Growth stocks" such as GMCR requires the management being fundamentally sound. It really doesn't seem to be the case.

    I have no position on the stock but I just feel grateful someone like Paulo spreads the info and stuff money into my pocket. Calm down and think it through. It might do you good.

    May 4, 2012. 07:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Main Problem With Green Mountain Coffee Roasters [View article]
    Hmm. Even with the management change, it's tough to justify a buy on the stock. Another point Einhorn deemphasized was the patent expiration issue. GMCR will undergo tremendous to cope with new landscape after its patents expired.

    I will certainly keep looking, but be very very cautious.
    May 4, 2012. 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft A Strong Buy On Nook Venture [View article]
    Great article. As you might notice though, Barnes & Nobles actually has symbol BKS.

    May 4, 2012. 07:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Main Problem With Green Mountain Coffee Roasters [View article]
    Thanks for pointing us to Einhorn's powerpoint. This 30 mins reading taught me more than many hours of browsing different news sites.
    More importantly, I learned that GMCR, like NFLX, is built on a flaky basis. I don't know how much this saves me.
    May 4, 2012. 07:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment