Seeking Alpha

33_Alpha

33_Alpha
Send Message
View 33_Alpha's Comments BY TICKER:
  • Lessons From Microsoft: An Outlook On Apple [View article]
    Rob,
    I like your cautious tone.
    One thing we should consider is that although MSFT was overvalued and AAPL is not. AAPL's EPS may have pressure in the next year. That is to say many see AAPL's P/E may increase.

    This makes historical stock price comparison not as useful as tools such as DCF. By plugging in numbers of how optimistic/pessimistic you are, you can calculate the different values. Some analyses I saw lately (on SA) does show that AAPL seems to be undervalued by at least 20% even in pessimistic scenario. That's probably the ultimate reason why being bulls may be more rational than being bears at this price level.

    33
    Jan 29 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Still A Buy Even Though Amazon And Google Have Better Products [View article]
    Hey James,
    First of all, great article. I also appreciate you stick to your gun.

    Me too, is an Apple long. Here is a question for you. My plan is to buy Apple now, Apple at $300, at $225, at $150. So I am anticipating to the irrationality of the Market to cause Apple to tumble more. The last number is slightly bigger than the amount of cash per share.

    I am personally very happy if Apple's price goes down. With my fund, Apple at $700 means I can't buy too many share of it.

    So my question for you is this: how likely we are getting to each scenario? During the next half a year, before there is any product refresh, it is possible that the public fear, fan by the analyst, would make Apple to go down to $300. Are there any forces which will prevent Apple to go down to $225? e.g. If Apple goes down to say a certain price, would it trigger a certain type of mutual fund to buy it more?

    With your experience as a hedge fund manager, I believe you might be able to teach me more on this topic.

    Thanks in advance for your valuable time. If you are busy, feel free to ignore this post.

    33_Alpha

    Jan 27 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Earnings Fall Is Completely Unjustified [View article]
    When I saw the AH 10% drop, the only thing I can think of is "madness", especially given the valuation.

    So Bill, here's a question for you. I have never been a trading guy. (I usually hold stocks for 3+ years.) I notice that you recommendation seem to say you would like to buy AAPL in short term. Would you think the current pessimism a kind of headwind?

    I also wonder what the cause of such pessimism is. Please tell me what you think.

    33
    Jan 23 06:24 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Can Shares Rebound? [View article]
    Bill,

    Thanks for your article. As always, I find it very helpful.

    I also checked out deagol's estimate. As always he is on the super-bull side. Let's see how it goes.

    Sounds funny to say so. After reading all the reports, I simply feel excited to see the result, regardless of whether it's good or bad. Ah, I must be filing a divorce with my money. :)

    33
    Jan 22 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing Apple's Guidance To Actual Results [View article]
    Hey Bill,

    I am glad that you write this article for new Apple investors. But I am appalled by the fact some people don't realize Apple almost alway beat its own guidance.

    33
    Jan 14 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Needs To Answer These Questions [View article]
    Hey Bill,

    For some reasons, crap like "Apple Now Priced for 4%" is on the top ten list. People should read more rational like yours than sensational stuff.

    Keep on.

    33
    Dec 18 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Law Of Large Numbers And Declining Margins Point Towards Average Stock Returns [View article]
    OP has great financial analysis. No doubt. His understanding of the market is quite fair.

    But he obviously misuse the concept of "the law of large number". Also as he argued, the demise of Apple would probably be caused by fierce competition. That has nothing to do with LOL at all.
    Nov 13 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Apple Keeps Going Down [View article]
    "While the price action may be bubbly, the fundamentals are still perfectly intact. But fundamentals don't help highly overleveraged traders and investors satisfy margin calls."

    Word.
    Nov 9 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Executive Wars [View article]
    Hey Paulos,

    Your hypothesis is plausible. While I am worried about general corporate politics in upper management. The whole news is positive:
    1, Browett has no acclaim at his job. He should go.
    2, Unlike the Jobs era, Cook management has certain elements of cooperations between high elements. So a divisive figure such as Forestall would only reduce efficiency.
    3, There are too many executives level guys. With Forestall and Browett, there are 6 guys. Is it necessary? It's hard to make coherent decision this way.

    So generally I think this shakeup is a good news. Similar to Mayer took over Yahoo, I would expect more of these happen in the next month or so.
    33
    Oct 30 12:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Calls Out The iPad Mini: Is Apple Running Out Of Steam? [View article]
    Hey Ashraf,

    From your reply, it seems like you are a programmer yourself. May be this is a valid question for you.

    I was a bit out of touch of the latest mobile development. My impression is that the iOS platform is more coherent, but developers have less controls.

    On the other hand, the Android platform is a freer, but developers have to deal with segmentation of platforms.

    Do you have similar impressions? Or from where you see, you observe something different? (e.g. you might actually think Android is THE platform, then I want to know why.)

    For your piece, though I don't completely agree (I am an AAPL long), I can understand where you are from. Your tech background (and being a student) is also unique here. As a result, I am more interested in why you would think like you write.

    33
    Oct 29 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Sink On Tepid Response To iPhone 5? [View article]
    While you might want to yell at the author, my guess is incomehunter simply wrote this article too early. So the price was based on couple of days ago.

    That said, historically, many of iPhoneX reviews could be highly critical. Part of the reason was that rumors usually cover much of the features. The other part was that the design is .... indeed quite well done. So changing it doesn't seem to be necessary.

    I can understand the urge of giving saintly advice on the tumultuous time of Apple. Once you get it right - it will sound like a prophet a lot. At the same time..... iphone or in general all smartphones' popularity can be quite difficult to predict. Do you want to risk your credibility to write an article quickly?

    33
    Sep 21 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Take The Money And Run [View article]
    Sometimes, I have no idea how an article become an Editor's Pick. This article is one of those examples.

    The premise of the OP is essentially this: "Because of high P/S, Apple will got "hit hard when there is surprise"". P/S is indeed one of the weak ratios in Apple. But how about the ROE? how about the lower/close to the sector forward P/E? Not to say, the company is very well run.

    And let's say there is a hard hit. How much? If it goes back to MSFT level, we are talking about 10%, so back to $620, we are still looking at a healthy company with the largest cap value in the world. So does it call for a sell? You might want to buy more in this case.

    The issue I have is not the OP doesn't have a point, he points out one thing , P/S too high, which I didn't notice. But this doesn't call for *selling the stocks* nor it shouldn't be an editor pick. Many more articles analyze Apple better.

    33
    Sep 8 10:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Apple Risks Revealed [View article]
    Hmm..... I don't disagree with your points but you probably need to think deep on your arguments......

    Global Economy: It's not specific to Apple. (Like most of S&P 500?)
    Obsolete Assets: Look up Tim Cook and what he is good at.
    Third Parties: A properly manage a supply chain reduced the probability of things go wrong. An Apple is good at. (Again, look up what Tim Cook does.....)

    Competition and IP: These two are stronger points. But again..... are they inherent to Apple only?

    33
    Sep 8 10:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Why I Was So Wrong About Apple [View article]
    Hi Ashraf,

    I was like you back in 2004 and before I started to grok why Apple's product was "better', I had been stumbling on its apparent premium in price.

    My background is quite similar to yours, I have a degree in Electrical Engineering and my upringing have been Mathematics and Science. So I fell into the same problem you probably had ...... which is to judge something purely from a technical prospective.

    Then I read Eric Raymond's books, "The Art of Unix Programming", Raymond advocated everyone to learn Unix/Windows/Mac and understand why all three systems are important in real life. I followed that advice and ended up understand why many artists/designers or seemingly technically unsophisticated people love Apple.

    In concrete, I believe it is the design, the marketing, the sales, the customer experience of Apple which makes me changed. Those once you delve into it, it's extremely complicated matter by themselves.

    This is an interesting perspective, I feel that this thinking helps me navigate a lot of investment other than Apple. I just hope to share it to you and hope it to useful.

    And good luck investing Apple as well.

    33_Alpha.
    Aug 23 08:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Strength: By The Numbers [View article]
    Thanks for your corrections and answers. Let's wait for Q3's iPhone 5 release then.
    Aug 22 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by 33_Alpha
COMMENTS STATS
165 Comments
93 Likes