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E = MC Hammer

E = MC Hammer
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  • When Safety Rallies, Pay Attention [View article]
    In your paper you talk about a the rolling 4 week rotation of let's say XLU vs SPY. Does it call for rotation purely based on where the price ratio closes on let's say a Friday relative to where it closed 3 Fridays earlier? What if the ratio in absolute terms is higher on the current Friday but since 3 Fridays ago, it's been trending downward? Are you accounting for the direction of movement over the month or just the absolute difference in the ratio? In other words, does sideways or trending activity in the ratio even matter?
    Apr 10 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Very Simple Explanation For Gold's Weakness [View article]
    I can't believe how many clueless statements about trading in GLD being the cause of gold tanking recently I've seen. I already had to dismantle this argument on Zerohedge because Tyler Durden seems be just as uninformed as Mr. Santos.

    No, liquidation of GLD had ZERO impact on the price of gold. Trading in GLD does not directly impact the price of gold, any more than trading in SPY impacts SPX. GLD tracks observable gold prices in the form of futures. The fact that you can make a statement to the contrary eviscerates your credibility immediately. The only way GLD can theoretically impact prices is when the amount of metal in the trust increases or decreases, as when GLD creates new shares. It takes proceeds from investors and goes out buys gold in the market. It's that kind of primary transaction that can impact market prices. Trading of shares does not have that impact, period. GLD follows gold and not the other way around. Bear in mind the assets in the GLD have INCREASED while gold has fallen.

    Now, for an explanation of why gold has fallen recently.
    -Unwind of the euro/gold trade
    -End of year capital gains related selling
    -Several large tactical sales during thin trading that ran key support levels, stops, and shook out longs. This in turn led to technical weakness
    -Poorer demand out of india due to import costs and a weak rupee
    -certain economic data being better than expected.
    Dec 21 07:02 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did we miss a major central bank tightening overnight? The precious metals sector is lit up bright red following the Fed's addition to QE and what looks like the promise of ZIRP for at least 2-3 more years. GLD -1.1%, SLV -2.2% premarket. Copper and oil join in, the red metal -1.4%, and WTI crude -0.6%[View news story]
    If you really believe the White House or other US government agency is worried about the price of gold then you need to get a clue. Very few people are invested in Gold on a relative basis. Gold largely flies under the radar in the US. In China and India it's a different story. China I do believe have incentive to knock down the price of gold as they are in an accumulation phase.
    Dec 13 09:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare To Short Gold [View article]
    Except that gold hard a major run up leading to the announcement of QE3. Gold reached a seriously overbought reading of 80 on the RSI. Long term i am bullish but when gold reached those overbought technical levels even i went short. Gold was closed to oversold levels recently and appears to be recovering, though much will depend on the FOMC meeting. If the fed replaces operation twist with outright treasury purchases, i.e., balance sheet expansion, gold could have a huge week. Why? Because unlike the run-up to QE3, balance sheet expansion is not being priced in by the market.
    Dec 8 09:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare To Short Gold [View article]
    You miss a very obvious point. The US dollar index has declined by a third over the past decade and gold is priced in dollars.

    Also, CPI and gold prices may have diverged over the past 10 years but map gold against Chinese CPI and you get a different result. Also map gold prices against the rise of Chinese and Indian incomes and you get a strong correlation.

    Gold is much more than a US story now with rapid growth in emerging markets. As incomes grow in the east, so will demand for gold. And for the record, the overwhelming majority of comex trades are cash settled. The trading in gold by Central Banks is not happening on the futures markets, it's happening off market. Futures markets may give a snapshot of sentiment but they don't tell the whole story.
    Dec 8 06:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Though many pundits, analysts, and (reportedly) employees liked Apple's (AAPL -2.3%) big management shakeup (I, II), shares have fallen below the $600 threshold today. Scott Forstall had plenty of critics, but he also earned a lot of respect on account of iOS' success over the last 5 years. Today's decline comes as Chinese regulators give their approval to iPhone 5 models meant for China Unicom (CHU) and China Telecom's (CHA) 3G networks. [View news story]
    You can predownload maps on IOS 6. Nothing special about that. Android also offers this option.
    Nov 1 01:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Will Miss Earnings And Trade Below $600 [View article]
    Wow, if you think this joker actually has clients then you are being generous. And if he does have clients, I worry for their financial security. A team of "investment professionals" who repeatedly gets facts wrong and are constantly called out on said factual errors deserves to be derided.
    Oct 24 05:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Will Miss Earnings And Trade Below $600 [View article]
    Exactly, and as I state below, Verizon activations alone are up 15% on the June quarter. AT&T activations are 27% up on the June quarter. Yet this is a disappointment?
    Oct 24 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Will Miss Earnings And Trade Below $600 [View article]
    AAPL sold between 15-16 million IPads based on Tim Cook's statement about selling the 100 millionth IPad two weeks ago (unless he was rounding). That's a basic fact you should have been aware of before writing your usual poorly researched articles (yes, I remember the last AAPL article you wrote where commenters called you out on basic factual errors, such as the size of AAPL's cash hoard).

    Your 21 million IPhones number is beyond sophomoric. You cite in conclusory fashion that based on Verizon and AT&T activation, your 21.5 million number is justified. Based on what? Because you say it is? Let's see the math. Verizon activations alone are up 15% on the June quarter. AT&T activations are 27% up on the June quarter. And yet they will sell 21 million IPhones? How dense are you?

    SeekingAlpha should really exercise some quality control in who they allow to publish.
    Oct 24 05:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on the iPad Mini: The cheapest model (16GB Wi-Fi) goes for $329. Amazon and Google, sellers of the $199 Kindle Fire HD and Nexus 7, are probably breathing sighs of relief. As expected, there's no retina display inside the Mini, but there is an HD front camera and 5MP back camera, and 3G/4G models are offered (they start at $459). Like the iPad 2, the Mini is powered by an A5 processor. Apple (AAPL -2.2%) is selling off. (live blog). [View news story]
    AAPL sold only 16 million IPads this quarter based on Cook's statement that they sold their 100 millionth IPad. That does not bode well for earnings. 16 million is on the low end of estimates.
    Oct 23 02:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After seeing Verizon report it sold just ~650K iPhone 5s in Q3 due to supply issues, Jefferies' Peter Misek thinks only 5M units may have been sold overall in the quarter - he previously believed sales of 8M-10M were possible. But Misek argues iPhone 4/4S sales will make up for any shortfall to his 26M-unit iPhone forecast. Meanwhile, Stifel notes the iPhone 5 is still back-ordered for 3 weeks at Verizon. Apple (AAPL -2.8%) is selling off along with many other tech large caps, and is down 13% from its Sep. 21 high. (earlier: I, II[View news story]
    Sorry but this is not correct. The way you calculate implied move is to look at the price of an at the money straddle, as a percentage of stock price not just just a the price of a put or a call. Check the price of next week's 610 straddles
    Oct 20 02:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After seeing Verizon report it sold just ~650K iPhone 5s in Q3 due to supply issues, Jefferies' Peter Misek thinks only 5M units may have been sold overall in the quarter - he previously believed sales of 8M-10M were possible. But Misek argues iPhone 4/4S sales will make up for any shortfall to his 26M-unit iPhone forecast. Meanwhile, Stifel notes the iPhone 5 is still back-ordered for 3 weeks at Verizon. Apple (AAPL -2.8%) is selling off along with many other tech large caps, and is down 13% from its Sep. 21 high. (earlier: I, II[View news story]
    Options are implying a 7% move right now, which would get AAPL north of 650. Let's also bear in mind AAPL had almost a 9% move post earnings not long ago.
    Oct 19 05:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After seeing Verizon report it sold just ~650K iPhone 5s in Q3 due to supply issues, Jefferies' Peter Misek thinks only 5M units may have been sold overall in the quarter - he previously believed sales of 8M-10M were possible. But Misek argues iPhone 4/4S sales will make up for any shortfall to his 26M-unit iPhone forecast. Meanwhile, Stifel notes the iPhone 5 is still back-ordered for 3 weeks at Verizon. Apple (AAPL -2.8%) is selling off along with many other tech large caps, and is down 13% from its Sep. 21 high. (earlier: I, II[View news story]
    This makes absolutely no sense. 5 million were reported sold first weekend. And the phone was launched in several other countries before month end. How could they launch with no iphone 5 on hand. This is completely illogical.
    Oct 19 05:16 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On average, U.S. iPhone users are slightly younger and much wealthier than Android counterparts, according to charts from Horace Dediu. ~40% of iPhone users have household income of at least $100K, compared with ~25% of Android users, while the % of Android users with household income of less than $25K is about twice as high as the % of iPhone users. Two possible takeaways: The iPhone's demographics will help it maintain its app monetization edge (which affects developer support), and the iPhone would likely grab more share if Apple cut unsubsidized prices and enabled cheaper plans. (Piper[View news story]
    Why is anyone surprised by this, just look at the App Store versus Google Play numbers. An article I read a couple of months ago stated that the top 200 apps on the App Store were generating $5.4 million a day in revenue. On Google Play, the number is $600k; With that disparity, it's no wonder developers are often still developing apps for IOS first before Android. Not to mention the fragmented nature of the Android market where only a small minority are even running the latest OS version, which means developers have to restrict themselves to creating apps for the lowest common denominator OS version.

    Until these change, IOS and Apple will firmly be in the lead. And for the record, I have an IPad and Samsung Galaxy, so I see value in both systems.
    Oct 13 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Cash Position Is Overstated By $70 Billion [View article]
    You're ignoring the showrooming benefit of retail stores, which is aspect which cannot be easily quantified. These stores allow customers to come in and learn and get hands on experience with Apple products from dedicated Apple sales people, very different than an AT&T store which is selling multiple types of phone brands. As someone referred to the retail stores elsewhere on SA, they serve as Apple University. And it adds to the complete customer experience. Plus you seriously cannot think an AT&T shop functions with the efficiency of an Apple store. When I bought my IPad some time ago, I was literally able to make the purchase within two minutes. Didn't need to go to a cash register as a sales person was able to charge me on the spot with a "mobile register".

    Don't underestimate the intangible benefits of retail stores that cannot be readily captured.
    Oct 10 03:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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