Keryx: A Small Biotech With Many Catalysts [View article]
Thanks. I will roll over to a Jan '15 $5 call option. By then most of the uncertainly will have been taken out of the business, I believe drug will be in the market in the US and Japan and pps of $15 by then is realistic. Also allows more time for possible acquisition by big pharma.
Keryx: A Small Biotech With Many Catalysts [View article]
George, thanks for the article. Assuming positive results from pre-dialysis Phase II study and filing of NDA this year, what would be a reasonable target for pps by year-end? I hold some Jan '14 calls and am wondering if there is enough potential in pps this year to hold them until expiration or if risk/reward is not there and the smart move is to take profits now.
Questcor Pharmaceuticals In Play Ahead Of Earnings Release [View article]
Dr. Michael, you are directing your questions ot the wrong audience. If you wan tto see the original data used to apprvoe Acthar you should go to the FDA and not ask longs. Furthermore, the label was clarified in 2010, at which point I believe the FDA went over all the indications and reconfirmed Acthar's applicability to those indications. My guess is the FDA are not a bunch of dummies and if they came up with the current label in 2010 they took the time to make sure the original studies were good enough to support he use of Acthar for those indications. I guess you believe the folks over at Aetna are smarter and know more than the folks at the FDA. I don't. Aetna's move was purely a scare tactic with economic motives and not with patients' best interest in mind.
Questcor's Upcoming First Quarter Report: An Investor Reference Guide [View article]
One argument from shorts not addressed in this article is competition. Examples: -Biogen's new drug for MS will erase Acthar sales for that indication. -Novartis is ready to enter US market with Synacthen. -The only reason QCOR can charge the current price for the drug is its "orphan" designation, which will expire in 2017. -A generic or bio-similar will eventually appear and crush QCOR.
We longs know all these are low probability scenarios but would be nice for someone more knowledgeable than I am to write an article to debunk these.
Thanks Mike for the very well researched article. QCOR LEAPS are the way to riches.
Questcor: More Focus On News, Less On Business? [View article]
I agree with Cinci that the low P/E is more due to the "one trick pony" fear than to insurance coverage (if other insurers were dropping coverage they would have done it already, plus they would be going against Medicaid and Medicare coverage) or government investigation. But QCOR has one thing that trumps all else. It has TONS of cash. If they are smart, and I believe they are, they will invest in M&A and diversification going forward. Their hiring of a VP of Corp. Development tells you it is a strategic priority. So on top of a biological drug than can't be copied (no FDA rules on bio-similars) with 19 approved indications, they will leverage their commercial expertise to push other promising drugs they acquire. If they are smart with the cash and don't just milk the cow, they can turn QCOR into a multi-billion well diversified specialty bio-pharma company. I would actually cut down on buybacks (but not on dividends to keep punishing shorts) and use cash for smart drug acquisitions.
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
Funny you mention QCOR, a company that you could say is the opposite of DNDN, with no patents but no FDA risk, with a product that is very cheap to produce, sells well with sales growing, resulting in prodigious freee cash flows used for dividends, buybackas and acquisitions (Biovectra), oh and the company has zero debt. And yet with QCOR, as with DNDN, short interest is sky high and the stock gives back days worth of gains in one hour hour with no news. Got to love Wall Street. I am long QCOR for the long term. Fundamentals will eventually rule.
Questcor Presents Compelling Risk / Reward At $33 [View article]
"Citron's report said that Aetna, a healthcare insurance provider which provides 95% of Questcor's revenue, dropped coverage for the drug (Acthar)." - That is incorrect, Aetna accoutns for only 5% of reimbursements to QCOR. The drop was driven by investors assuming other insurance companies would follow Aetna's lead, which has not been the case. Furthermore, many longs have indicated that Aetna in fact continues to reimburse for appropriate patients and the announcement was just some kind of "sword swinging" in protest for teh high price of the drug.
Acthar Gel Outperforms Methylprednisolone In Head-To-Head Study In MS Patients [View article]
sleepdoc, I find your comment very interesting. QCOR's selling point is that for patients who do not respond or tolerate first and second line steroid treatments, Achtar is an option, and they don't even say it will work for all those patients. In my opinion the fact that sales have been growing the way they have, and that there are doctors who are "repeat" prescribers, means that the drug works for enough of those patients. And many patient testimonies confirm that. Otherwise doctors would be acting irrationally if they kept writing prescriptions. In the end NS and Reumathology are the areas that will make or break QCOR, not MS. And hopefully mgmt. will use their prodigious cash flow wisely and diversify their product portfolio in the next few years.
I have seen conservative estimates for QCOR but you take the prize. 7% 5-yr growth is very conservative but your base of 3.04 EPS when they had over $1 in Q4 and will likely be at $5 in 2013 is a real bearish assumption. Still, even with your uber conservative calculation, you conclude QCOR is undervalued. And yet over 50% of the float is short. One side is going to get slaughtered. Long QCOR.
Controversial Questcor Still Looks Like A Buy [View article]
One big difference between SPPI and QCOR: Quality of management team. Can't be overstated. SPPI's mgmt team now looks like clowns (if not fraudsters) and have lost all credibility. QCOR mgmt. has been "steady eddy" through thick and thin with all the short attacks.
Amgen And The Biosimilar Threat: Lessons From Affymax [View article]
Question for the author: How would your conclusions apply to another of your recommended companies, QCOR? Achtar Gel is a biological so it stands to reason that a true generic is not possible and so the lack of a patent protecting the drug is not an issue as the manufacturing process is what truly defines the product and not a specific chemical composition. Seems like a Biosimilar would be the only way to try to replicate Achtar Gel making the threat of competition unrealistic in the medium term. Do you think one of the big 4 biotechs would go after a branded Achtar Gel biosimilar or is the market for Acthar Gel not big enough to make the investment?
Controversial Questcor Still Looks Like A Buy [View article]
Stephen, you should write QCOR articles more often simply because it is a lot of fun to read all ther comments that a QCOR article generates at SA. For the record, I thought your article was balanced, not always easy to find with QCOR, although in my estimation your scenarios and growth prospects are conservative. Also, always good to read pharmaman's unemotional observations here and on Yahoo! MB. Keep them coming. Long QCOR.
Controversial Questcor Still Looks Like A Buy [View article]
Crimal finding? That sounds like a stretch. How would using aggressive marketing practices to promote on-label indications be "criminal" when an appeals court recently ruled that a sales rep pitching a drug for "off-label' indications was "freedom of speech". I think you are seeing massive risk in this investigation where there is only a moderate to minor risk. And don't forget who is doing the investigation. That matters too I think.
Structural Change In The Mobile Processor Marketplace: Intel Wins; ARM, AMD Lose [View article]
Keryx: A Small Biotech With Many Catalysts [View article]
Keryx: A Small Biotech With Many Catalysts [View article]
Questcor Pharmaceuticals In Play Ahead Of Earnings Release [View article]
Questcor's Upcoming First Quarter Report: An Investor Reference Guide [View article]
Questcor's Upcoming First Quarter Report: An Investor Reference Guide [View article]
-Biogen's new drug for MS will erase Acthar sales for that indication.
-Novartis is ready to enter US market with Synacthen.
-The only reason QCOR can charge the current price for the drug is its "orphan" designation, which will expire in 2017.
-A generic or bio-similar will eventually appear and crush QCOR.
We longs know all these are low probability scenarios but would be nice for someone more knowledgeable than I am to write an article to debunk these.
Thanks Mike for the very well researched article. QCOR LEAPS are the way to riches.
Questcor: More Focus On News, Less On Business? [View article]
Dendreon: Potentially Heading To $2/Share By 2016? [View article]
Questcor Presents Compelling Risk / Reward At $33 [View article]
Acthar Gel Outperforms Methylprednisolone In Head-To-Head Study In MS Patients [View article]
How Much Is Questcor Worth? [View article]
Controversial Questcor Still Looks Like A Buy [View article]
Amgen And The Biosimilar Threat: Lessons From Affymax [View article]
Controversial Questcor Still Looks Like A Buy [View article]
Controversial Questcor Still Looks Like A Buy [View article]