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James Myung

James Myung
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  • Never Let A Good Bear Market Go To Waste: Energy Gems Amidst The Rubble [View article]
    Ray and others,

    I was about to add Shell or Exxon, to diversify my oil porfolio and my initial plan to add more oil related shares if the crude oil price hit $60. Then I did a correlation analysis between crude oil price and share price when there were "dips" in the past, and the findings are oil related companies could be pushed down by 10 - 30% more from today's price. So, from this simple analysis, I decide to be more patient and wait for a better opportunity.

    However, considering the paper currencies have been printed massively from 2008, it is possible that the share prices have been inflated by the excessive currency supply (even one significant dip was in 2011-2012). There could be more reasons for this correlation discrepancies. Any thoughts?
    Dec 11, 2014. 04:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Never Let A Good Bear Market Go To Waste: Energy Gems Amidst The Rubble [View article]
    I thought of purchasing RDS.A, XOM, and CVX, but I decided to purchase 800 shares of PTR. I don't think the strength of $US will not last longer compared to yuan. So, PTR could provide discounted purchasing opportunity plus forex benefit that could hedge against forex risk in long-run.

    It s a different story when China prints their currency when compared to the US. This is because when cheap paper money creates billionaires and multi-billion-dollar companies in China, these new layer of wealthy class will EXCHANGE yuan to $US, in order for them to make their investments overseas. This will naturally resolve inflation issues somehow in China, and reduce their oversupply $US balance in their inventory. This takes longer but very smart way to control the excessive amount of $US. This is also possible considering their deficit balance is healthier compared to the US.

    Only thing that I felt bad about purchasing PTR at $110 was Mr. Buffett purchased this $15-20 in 2002...
    Dec 9, 2014. 03:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Massive Natural Gas Inventory Drawdown: And The Price Falls [View article]
    Added 1000 UNG and 1800 UGAZ today. It s funny how people think. Because of the oil panick, companies and individuals will switch over from oil to gas in such a short term period?

    When I filter out noises from the market, all I see is the followings: lower opening gas inventory compared to the 5 yrs avg in the beginning of the winter, and accelerated pace of gas withdrawal from the inventory compared to the previous year. The oil price is the only wild card in this game. GLTY all.
    Dec 1, 2014. 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    To me, this oil slump is due to the currency war going on between the US and Russia. The US has been trying to shut down Russia's economy by manipulating Russia's core natural sources that drive their economy - oil and gas. The US has reduced the import of oil from overseas. However, the US has increase its internal oil production substantially in such a short term period.

    Production: http://1.usa.gov/zWEk2c

    Import: http://1.usa.gov/1toQcfd

    However, the US is not realizing its digging itself to the deeper hole. With its massive deficit in its balance sheet, it is inevitable that it will require to FOREVER keep the interest rates low, or it will require some kinds of new currency system. Either way is against the value of $US. We are currently experiencing deflationary pressure in most of the commodities, including oil, gas, gold, silver ,etc. However, people don't factor in the substantial increase in the base money supply, printed by the Fed, which is triple of the the supply of money that has been printed for 200 years until the year 2008.

    The US will keep manipulating its dollar value and anything that is against the Russian economy. However, due to its broken deficit balance and the excessive money supply that is not yet factored in the market with a equilibrium stage, inflation will come, and commodities will outperform by then. I am going to keep adding commodities related shares including oil... possibly if oil hits $60, I may add another 10% of my funds to oil.
    Nov 28, 2014. 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Berkshire Hathaway Shouldn't Pay A Dividend: A Long Look Back At Berkshire [View article]
    By not issuing dividends, and not diluting shares, this simple operation policy filters out unfaithful and disloyal buy-and-sell traders and investors. This policy shows Buffett's "honest" and "bold" personality.
    Nov 21, 2014. 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    I played UNG recently, but sold them all yesterday to purchase PetroChina. I may revisit UNG if it drops to $20. UGAZ if you want higher risk and higher return.
    Nov 21, 2014. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    6228371,

    I have not bought PBR yet, and it looks extremely cheap, better valuation than PetroChina. However, I want to make a major move when the actual market overall crashes with a huge correction. I made my personal policy, not to invest more than 30% of my fund in stock. For this reason, I can't buy PBR, and many other companies. I also want to be flexible that I could quickly sell my 30% equity investment when I see some negative signals. As you have mentioned, PBR has scandal issues, and I don't want these issues to impact the share price when I want an exit.

    Overall, I agree with your assessment, and PBR's share price could easily go over $30 range. Good luck to you!
    Nov 21, 2014. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's PetroChina Investment: Finding Large Gaps Between Price And Value [View article]
    This piece is so well written. I liked it and I feel bad that I purchased PTR at $110 yesterday. I may sell PTR because I don't feel comfortable at the indices at the all time high. However, if there is a huge correct in PTR, I will revisit this company, as well as other Chinese companies.
    Nov 20, 2014. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    I added 800 PetroChina today - around 30% of my portfolio. Considering PetroChina does business in China and I believe Yuan is more attractive than $US in long run. So, by having some PetroChina, I am indirectly benefiting from the currency arbitrage.

    I wonder why there is no article related to PetroChina though because PetroChina and Russian oil companies have more value than the US oil companies.
    Nov 19, 2014. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Natural Gas In November: Analysis Of Current Working Gas Storage Data And Others [View article]
    Sold my 3000 UNG shares today, and bought 800 PetroChina. I am using only about 20-30% of my funds to do investment and waiting for a major correction in the market overall.

    If UNG goes down again significantly, I may purchase some from my additional funds.

    Good luck to you all!
    Nov 19, 2014. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Properly Diversified Portfolio Includes Gold [View article]
    I visited 3 banks that sell real physical gold and silver to do some price survey. Base on my observation, one of the bullion banks I visited charged $20 premium on physical gold per ounce, and $2 on silver, and that premium gets discounted for the larger purchase amount.

    I also noticed that the broker was excited and eager to sell them to me based on her face expression, which isn't a good sign to buy.

    I am hoping the deflationary pressure to bring down both gold and silver prices further, and manipulators' help would be a bonus.

    I am now fully convinced that the market gold price is not the price of the real physical gold, but the price of manipulated paper gold. The real price of gold, from the real supply-demand, denominated by the US paper currency supply will be revealed once there is a pressure in the US currency market. My observation is that the pressure is building up in an accelerated pace with the trades settled by other nations excluding $US . So, $US is a ticking time bomb in my view, but this could be further delayed by some kind of market collapses in Japan, Russia and China.
    Nov 13, 2014. 08:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Properly Diversified Portfolio Includes Gold [View article]
    Vegas,

    A Rich elite like Warren Buffett has or had 129,710,000 ounces of silver in his portfolio, which is alternative to holding gold.

    There are also investors like Soros, Rogers, etc who buy/sell gold for their investments.

    So, I don't know what the answer you are referring to, but some of them have GOLD in their portfolio.
    Nov 13, 2014. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Natural Gas In November: Analysis Of Current Working Gas Storage Data And Others [View article]
    Farmer, thanks for the updates. It is already Nov. since I bought UNG back in Sept or Oct. I don't even remember how many shares I bought. Lol. This will be interesting to see the price in the coming Jan.
    Nov 10, 2014. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Natural Gas In November: Analysis Of Current Working Gas Storage Data And Others [View article]
    There is another supply-demand market between different regions due to the limit in the storage capacity. This factor plus population influence the supply-demand, and eventually the price of NG.

    I have seen people analyzing price based on the total supply available in the ground, and due to this excessive supply available, the price NG is headed to south. However, what is the point when you can't store NG for the use. Thus, this approach is wrong in my opinion. They should analyze storage capacity limit in different regions, and population in the regions and the historical withdrawal patterns to reasonably conclude the distortion of the stored NG between the regions because this distortion will impact the supply-demand, and eventually the price of NG.
    Nov 10, 2014. 01:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: 'I Am As Mad As Hell, And I Am Not Going To Take This Anymore' [View article]
    Eric is a crook. He also did same thing for Timminco Limited, a solar panel producing company, which is now worth $Nil per share. It s in a different industry, but he was entertaining clueless greedy people with his fallacies to BUY. I was a foolish and greedy clueless individual to speculate in that stock, and was fortunate to make some gains (Luck). Certainly, Eric is not trustworthy and everyone should avoid taking his advice.
    Oct 27, 2014. 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
290 Comments
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