texalope

19 Comments

    • ON: Mon Oct 6th 18:56 PM
      Commented on:
      Getting Ready for... Anything
      A lifetime of entrepreneurial experience teaches me that investors should be thinking smaller. Which company has competitive advantages? Who has a strong balance sheet? Who has superior management? Who has a history of surviving the ups and downs? Answering these questions can lead to successful investment decisions because remember yje mantra; buy low, sell high. This is a chance to buy low. It may go lower, it may not. As Buffet says I'd rather be approximately right than precisely wrong./
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    • ON: Tue Sep 2nd 17:01 PM
      Commented on:
      Worst of Credit Storms Is Over for U.S. Banks - Fitch
      My prediction; This will draw a lot of derisive comments from the readers at Calculated Risk, the blog that should be named the MOTHER OF DARKNESS
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Aug 13th 08:30 AM
      Commented on:
      As Mortgage Securities Disappear, What Will Replace Them? [Housing Tracker]
      New mortgage defaults are declining, but foreclosures are continuing to rise sharply…

      Seems to me foreclosures rising is a direct result of rising defaults a few months ago and should not come as some startling revelation.
      Defaults declining indicates that foreclosures will be down in the near future. This is a forward looking indicator .
      While all the headlines are gloom and doom and the financial and housing stocks have staged precipitous declines, the overall market is only down 15%. Could this mean things aren't as bad as headlines would have us believe? It's hard to remain optimistic but In Pennsylvania the stores and restaurants are still busy. Recent info on local housing sales show modest price decreases and modest increases depending on the town. Home sales take longer but the market isn't frozen.
      The recent housing bill will help on some level. I for on do not expect the US to fail but we may muddle through for a while. I just keep looking for good businesses where the stock prices have fallen to a point that buying now represents value.
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    • ON: Sun Aug 10th 06:18 AM
      Commented on:
      Greenspan & PIMCO: A Gross Conflict of Interest
      Interesting perspective. I never thought about buying GSE debt as a short bet of FNM and FRE. This make a company like NLY an interesting investment with little down side risk.
      What is your rationale for owning FRE common at this point?
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    • ON: Thu Aug 7th 10:42 AM
      Commented on:
      What's Paulson Cooking Up For Fannie & Freddie?
      As a former shareholder my view is there are three options from the perspective of shareholders;

      1) Massive dilution at these low prices.
      2) Treasury buying stock and wiping out shareholders.
      3) GSE's muddle through and manage their way out of the crisis.

      Option 3 involves a lot of good things happening in the near future or at least a slowing or halt to the downward spiral. I'm not sure that option 3 is a reasonable worst case scenario. I don't believe the GSE's are an investment. Any money in here is pure speculation.
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    • ON: Tue Jul 22nd 18:12 PM
      Commented on:
      Financials Future Still Uncertain
      Fannie and Freddie are really troubling. As part of their mandate the government requires them to take on some mortgages that are riskier to fulfill their social responsibility. The market kills the stock making a capital raise all but impossible due to shareholder dilution. Paulson then comes up with the" bazooka in his pocket plan" promising taxpayers that if he has to use it the shareholders will be wiped out. He contends that he favors private shareholders investing in the GSE's. Yet, what shareholder in his right mind would invest in these businesses under the threat of being wiped out by the secretary of treasury under the guise of protecting the taxpayers. As a shareholder who lost a tremendous amount of money, it's frustrating to see 200 government auditors from OFHeo swarming over the GSE's books and saying their capital exceeds regulatory requirements by 20%,. Then the Treasury secretary says he;s sent in auditors to reexamine these same books- It's pathetic. Where were these regulators and the treasury secretary last year when the share price was still 70. All the issues were known then and discussed. Our entire government is in reactive mode. THey don't get in front of any issue. This is pathetic. Are these really the best leaders we can find?
      The same can be said for the late to the party SEC. All of a sudden after massive destruction of value they decide to enforce short sale rules- and they only apply it to 19 companies. What about eliminating shorting on the uptick rule. I'm not saying that shorts are wrong. I'm only saying that the same way I'm required to buy stock that really exists, a short should be required to sell stock that really exists. What is wrong with that?
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    • ON: Wed Jul 16th 13:35 PM
      Commented on:
      Calling Today A Short-Term Bottom for Financials
      Great Call- Whether tech analysis is valid or not. Additionally, Spikes in the VIX and Capitulation selling sound too formulaic to me to be a strategy, but it worked this time- Once again- GREAT CALL
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Jul 8th 14:14 PM
      Commented on:
      Fannie and Freddie's Rude Wake Up Call
      If you look on FRE's website you'll see a recent investor presentation. Slide number 43 shows a retained portfolio of $712 billion. 7 percent are Alt A, all rated AAA with 16% credit enhancement. 13 percent non agency subprime with 37% credit enhancement. The presentation goes into great detail regarding geographical breakdown as well. I think the panic surrounding the
      GSE's is overdone without an adequate examination of the facts.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Jun 19th 11:59 AM
      Commented on:
      2 Safe Bets Amidst Big Banks' Worrying High Yields
      It's been surprising how many financial institutions sacrificed lending standards for sales gains. I don't know why you should assume that a Buffet investee didn't follow the herd. Wells Fargo is a prime example.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed May 7th 05:03 AM
      Commented on:
      Buffett's Soggy Logic on Guarantors' Ratings
      Totally agree. Buffet uses his pulpit to be a salesman. Witness the annual meeting, his pictures and endorsements on various products and companies he owns.
      I don't find anything wrong with that but the investing public should realize he's a mere mortal driven by profit motives.
      Deification is inappropriate.
      View article »
    • ON: Mon Apr 28th 16:31 PM
      Commented on:
      Financial Stocks: Where Will They Go Once Investors Sober Up?
      And you know this HOW? You provide no backup to your opinion. Why should I place any value on it. This article is a poor excuse for analysis. Hopefully this site will screen your writings before they let you publish again.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Apr 3rd 07:00 AM
      Commented on:
      We Don't Need Money But We'll Raise Some - Lehman
      Although I agree with your observation I'd like to remind you of the old adage that the time to borrow money is when you don't need it.

      In today's financial climate I think this was a prudent move whether they need the money or not. If Bear Stearns had been more forward looking, they might have survived.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Apr 1st 14:12 PM
      Commented on:
      Lehman Brothers: Blame It On the Shorts
      So does this mean its OKAY to start rumors, withdraw money, plant stories with journalists, and any other tactics shorts deem to use?
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Mar 23rd 16:35 PM
      Commented on:
      Calling a Turn in Blackstone Group
      I've been thinking about the government regulations that are a pretty good bet bet following the IBanks' borrowing from the Fed. The beneficiary could be the Private Equity firms like Blackstone , since they can be more aggressive.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Mar 2nd 09:40 AM
      Commented on:
      2 Noteworthy Points From Warren Buffett's Annual Shareholder Letter
      Primus is a good bet and here's my thinking.
      You have to think like an owner of a privately held business with no daily quote.
      They have a solid book. Spreads are going up so the income stream is rising. My company is getting paid quite well for the risk we're assuming (much like the Property and casualty business after hurricanes Katrina and Wilma).
      My accountant comes in quarterly and tells me we're losing tons of money because he marks our holdings to market. My bank account is growing larger and larger and my prospects for continuation of this stream of money are very good in this cycle. I have no intention or need to sell my assets into this weak market, I'll hold them to term(about 5 years) until my insurance guarantee expires. My accountants' proclamations do not hold much value for me. My bank account does.
      If a competitor came to me and offered half of book value for my good business with a growing stream of cash flows, I'd be a fool to sell it to him. Frankly, I'd buy his business under the same arrangement. So, these factors tell me Primus is a good buy here at 50% of economic book value.
      The risk- a black swan event occurs with a huge bankruptcy that I couldn't predict. An outlier type event that can happen with any investment at any time.

      I don't think that's enough to dissuade me from a bet that will double my money at the least($9 assigns no value to ongoing business) so this company is worth more. But,that amount is subject to debate.
      View article »
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