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texalope
19 Comments
Getting Ready for... Anything
Worst of Credit Storms Is Over for U.S. Banks - Fitch
As Mortgage Securities Disappear, What Will Replace Them? [Housing Tracker]
Seems to me foreclosures rising is a direct result of rising defaults a few months ago and should not come as some startling revelation.
Defaults declining indicates that foreclosures will be down in the near future. This is a forward looking indicator .
While all the headlines are gloom and doom and the financial and housing stocks have staged precipitous declines, the overall market is only down 15%. Could this mean things aren't as bad as headlines would have us believe? It's hard to remain optimistic but In Pennsylvania the stores and restaurants are still busy. Recent info on local housing sales show modest price decreases and modest increases depending on the town. Home sales take longer but the market isn't frozen.
The recent housing bill will help on some level. I for on do not expect the US to fail but we may muddle through for a while. I just keep looking for good businesses where the stock prices have fallen to a point that buying now represents value.
Greenspan & PIMCO: A Gross Conflict of Interest
What is your rationale for owning FRE common at this point?
What's Paulson Cooking Up For Fannie & Freddie?
1) Massive dilution at these low prices.
2) Treasury buying stock and wiping out shareholders.
3) GSE's muddle through and manage their way out of the crisis.
Option 3 involves a lot of good things happening in the near future or at least a slowing or halt to the downward spiral. I'm not sure that option 3 is a reasonable worst case scenario. I don't believe the GSE's are an investment. Any money in here is pure speculation.
Financials Future Still Uncertain
The same can be said for the late to the party SEC. All of a sudden after massive destruction of value they decide to enforce short sale rules- and they only apply it to 19 companies. What about eliminating shorting on the uptick rule. I'm not saying that shorts are wrong. I'm only saying that the same way I'm required to buy stock that really exists, a short should be required to sell stock that really exists. What is wrong with that?
Calling Today A Short-Term Bottom for Financials
Fannie and Freddie's Rude Wake Up Call
GSE's is overdone without an adequate examination of the facts.
2 Safe Bets Amidst Big Banks' Worrying High Yields
Buffett's Soggy Logic on Guarantors' Ratings
I don't find anything wrong with that but the investing public should realize he's a mere mortal driven by profit motives.
Deification is inappropriate.
Financial Stocks: Where Will They Go Once Investors Sober Up?
We Don't Need Money But We'll Raise Some - Lehman
In today's financial climate I think this was a prudent move whether they need the money or not. If Bear Stearns had been more forward looking, they might have survived.
Lehman Brothers: Blame It On the Shorts
Calling a Turn in Blackstone Group
2 Noteworthy Points From Warren Buffett's Annual Shareholder Letter
You have to think like an owner of a privately held business with no daily quote.
They have a solid book. Spreads are going up so the income stream is rising. My company is getting paid quite well for the risk we're assuming (much like the Property and casualty business after hurricanes Katrina and Wilma).
My accountant comes in quarterly and tells me we're losing tons of money because he marks our holdings to market. My bank account is growing larger and larger and my prospects for continuation of this stream of money are very good in this cycle. I have no intention or need to sell my assets into this weak market, I'll hold them to term(about 5 years) until my insurance guarantee expires. My accountants' proclamations do not hold much value for me. My bank account does.
If a competitor came to me and offered half of book value for my good business with a growing stream of cash flows, I'd be a fool to sell it to him. Frankly, I'd buy his business under the same arrangement. So, these factors tell me Primus is a good buy here at 50% of economic book value.
The risk- a black swan event occurs with a huge bankruptcy that I couldn't predict. An outlier type event that can happen with any investment at any time.
I don't think that's enough to dissuade me from a bet that will double my money at the least($9 assigns no value to ongoing business) so this company is worth more. But,that amount is subject to debate.