texalope's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/101519/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/171418-counterintuitive-accounting-ambac-edition?source=feed#comment-745730 745730 Thu, 05 Nov 2009 05:38:44 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162069-chart-of-the-day-wells-fargo-s-construction-loans?source=feed#comment-681430 681430 Thu, 17 Sep 2009 18:17:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/142584-this-rally-smells-fishy-to-me?source=feed#comment-543029 543029 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 19:04:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140857-notes-from-white-mountains-insurance-analyst-day-part-ii?source=feed#comment-527723 527723 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 08:07:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/135480-is-american-express-risking-its-cache-in-current-treatment-of-cardholders?source=feed#comment-491118 491118 Tue, 05 May 2009 19:14:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128709-why-i-prefer-excel-maritime-to-dryships?source=feed#comment-447624 447624
A technical violation occurs when they breach a covenant like debt to equity (this can easily happen when prices of ships are falling). Under this scenario they are like our banks but they have liquidity due to their cash flow.

In a material breach the cash flows fall short. This is obviously much more of a problem. The banls' concern is how do we get paid? If the business revenues are falling the interest and principal payments are in jeopardy.

Stanislav, what insight do you have here regarding EXM.

It seems when they bought quintana one of the goals was to add the more predictable cash flows from their charter business. This should provide some insurance regarding a material breach.]]> Wed, 01 Apr 2009 07:41:20 -0400
A technical violation occurs when they breach a covenant like debt to equity (this can easily happen when prices of ships are falling). Under this scenario they are like our banks but they have liquidity due to their cash flow.

In a material breach the cash flows fall short. This is obviously much more of a problem. The banls' concern is how do we get paid? If the business revenues are falling the interest and principal payments are in jeopardy.

Stanislav, what insight do you have here regarding EXM.

It seems when they bought quintana one of the goals was to add the more predictable cash flows from their charter business. This should provide some insurance regarding a material breach.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128709-why-i-prefer-excel-maritime-to-dryships?source=feed#comment-447575 447575
Excel also has a weak balance sheet and faces the same business cycle. They've cancelled the dividend, postponed their earnings to negotiate with banks. What do you see that makes this a better investment or bet?]]> Wed, 01 Apr 2009 05:43:40 -0400
Excel also has a weak balance sheet and faces the same business cycle. They've cancelled the dividend, postponed their earnings to negotiate with banks. What do you see that makes this a better investment or bet?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127581-the-high-dividend-stock-investor-s-collapsing-dollar-survival-guide-part-6b?source=feed#comment-439243 439243
If you buy today when prices have discounted awful outcomes and hold for 5 years it is not impossible to expect to achieve a double. This means a 15% annual return. Perfectly acceptable to me as an investor.]]> Wed, 25 Mar 2009 07:05:21 -0400
If you buy today when prices have discounted awful outcomes and hold for 5 years it is not impossible to expect to achieve a double. This means a 15% annual return. Perfectly acceptable to me as an investor.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127278-there-s-revolution-in-the-air?source=feed#comment-436194 436194 Mon, 23 Mar 2009 05:59:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/126731-dionex-corporation-quality-at-a-discount?source=feed#comment-433703 433703 Fri, 20 Mar 2009 12:35:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125808-buffett-ambivalent-on-mark-to-market-accounting?source=feed#comment-424104 424104
In the short term the matket is capable of being wrong about the value, just as the CEO can be.

Buffet once again has a logical conclusion. Mark the asset to market, let the company explain why they disagree with these values and let the investor decide what's more accurate in the short term.

Bank examiners should have the same option. They can exercise forebearance or judge the bank to be underwater.]]> Fri, 13 Mar 2009 06:01:26 -0400
In the short term the matket is capable of being wrong about the value, just as the CEO can be.

Buffet once again has a logical conclusion. Mark the asset to market, let the company explain why they disagree with these values and let the investor decide what's more accurate in the short term.

Bank examiners should have the same option. They can exercise forebearance or judge the bank to be underwater.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123585-another-way-of-looking-at-risk-in-financials?source=feed#comment-411387 411387 Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:58:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123411-buffett-s-financial-bets?source=feed#comment-408199 408199 Sun, 01 Mar 2009 14:48:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123124-stress-tests-banks-vs-bond-insurers?source=feed#comment-406255 406255
The CEO claims adjusted book value is $40. As I write theis the stock is at $2.67.

There is something seriously wrong. It seems like a competitor would snap this up.]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 14:56:57 -0500
The CEO claims adjusted book value is $40. As I write theis the stock is at $2.67.

There is something seriously wrong. It seems like a competitor would snap this up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123124-stress-tests-banks-vs-bond-insurers?source=feed#comment-405468 405468 Fri, 27 Feb 2009 06:02:38 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121544-slippery-slope-dry-bulk-shipping-contracts-begin-to-default?source=feed#comment-396962 396962
DRY BULK

Revival of Brazil iron ore cargoes lifts rates hopes
Michelle Wiese Bockmann - Friday 20 February 2009

EUROPEAN steel mills are booking capesize vessels to ship iron ore from Brazil for the first time since October, brokers have reported, boosting hopes of a sustained recovery in bulk carrier freight rates.

ArcelorMittal was among those mills that this week began to quietly nominate cargoes to be loaded from Brazil in March and April.

“These are the first cargoes to be transported that we have seen for some time,” said a London-based broker. “They’re trying to keep it quiet, but the principals and brokers are receiving nominations. Will it carry on? We don’t know. But for now it’s good.”

Steel mills around the world controversially defaulted on contracts of affreightment for iron ore shipments last October, when the global economic crisis saw the demand for steel collapse.

There have been no iron ore cargoes nominated from Brazil to Europe since then, several brokers familiar with the capesize market told Lloyd’s List.

The resumption of trade is viewed as one of the most positive signs for the global market for dry bulk since the five-year shipping boom ended in the final quarter of 2008. Rates to charter capesize vessels are expected to jump next week, as very few of the global fleet of capesize vessels are available for business in the Atlantic region. “I can count them on one hand,” said a broker.

Steel mills in Asia and Europe redelivered ships early and cancelled time charters or contracts of affreightments in September and October, triggering a dramatic fall in freight rates, as well as a wave of bankruptcies among vulnerable shipowners and operators.

The global steel industry provides business for roughly half the world’s fleet of bulk carrriers. Many mills are currently renegotiating long-term contracts of affreightment signed with owners to ship iron ore rates now much higher than current levels.

As a point of information the EXM contract problems are capesize vessels. Being in business and having the rights ships makes them a candidate for other business. The world has not come to an end. ]]> Fri, 20 Feb 2009 14:33:38 -0500
DRY BULK

Revival of Brazil iron ore cargoes lifts rates hopes
Michelle Wiese Bockmann - Friday 20 February 2009

EUROPEAN steel mills are booking capesize vessels to ship iron ore from Brazil for the first time since October, brokers have reported, boosting hopes of a sustained recovery in bulk carrier freight rates.

ArcelorMittal was among those mills that this week began to quietly nominate cargoes to be loaded from Brazil in March and April.

“These are the first cargoes to be transported that we have seen for some time,” said a London-based broker. “They’re trying to keep it quiet, but the principals and brokers are receiving nominations. Will it carry on? We don’t know. But for now it’s good.”

Steel mills around the world controversially defaulted on contracts of affreightment for iron ore shipments last October, when the global economic crisis saw the demand for steel collapse.

There have been no iron ore cargoes nominated from Brazil to Europe since then, several brokers familiar with the capesize market told Lloyd’s List.

The resumption of trade is viewed as one of the most positive signs for the global market for dry bulk since the five-year shipping boom ended in the final quarter of 2008. Rates to charter capesize vessels are expected to jump next week, as very few of the global fleet of capesize vessels are available for business in the Atlantic region. “I can count them on one hand,” said a broker.

Steel mills in Asia and Europe redelivered ships early and cancelled time charters or contracts of affreightments in September and October, triggering a dramatic fall in freight rates, as well as a wave of bankruptcies among vulnerable shipowners and operators.

The global steel industry provides business for roughly half the world’s fleet of bulk carrriers. Many mills are currently renegotiating long-term contracts of affreightment signed with owners to ship iron ore rates now much higher than current levels.

As a point of information the EXM contract problems are capesize vessels. Being in business and having the rights ships makes them a candidate for other business. The world has not come to an end. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121412-american-negativity-is-upside-down?source=feed#comment-394593 394593 Unfortunately, all the pundits and talking heads instantly pan every new idea. They scare everyone and make the downward spiral into a self fulfilling cycle.
Keep up the good work.]]> Thu, 19 Feb 2009 06:22:48 -0500 Unfortunately, all the pundits and talking heads instantly pan every new idea. They scare everyone and make the downward spiral into a self fulfilling cycle.
Keep up the good work.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116646-geithner-supply-and-demand-and-better-days-ahead?source=feed#comment-367281 367281 Tue, 27 Jan 2009 06:43:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116368-thain-s-undoing-thinking-he-s-worth-it?source=feed#comment-365854 365854 Sadly, the self gratifyng expenses came at a time that others were losing their jobs.
While 1.2 million spent on decorating an office is not a large number when thought of on a relative basis, its very large on an absolute basis for the average person.
Think about the fact that 40 , $30,000 / year jobs could have been preserved for 1 year if he was willing to live with the decorations of his predecessor.
I feel sorry for Thain because he obviously doesn't get it. Maybe this will serve as a wake up call for him. There is nothing wrong with thinking of yourself and giving yourself rewards. It should be tempered with some consideration of the plight of others.
]]> Sun, 25 Jan 2009 16:06:39 -0500 Sadly, the self gratifyng expenses came at a time that others were losing their jobs.
While 1.2 million spent on decorating an office is not a large number when thought of on a relative basis, its very large on an absolute basis for the average person.
Think about the fact that 40 , $30,000 / year jobs could have been preserved for 1 year if he was willing to live with the decorations of his predecessor.
I feel sorry for Thain because he obviously doesn't get it. Maybe this will serve as a wake up call for him. There is nothing wrong with thinking of yourself and giving yourself rewards. It should be tempered with some consideration of the plight of others.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115780-would-you-buy-bank-of-america-common?source=feed#comment-362457 362457 Color me distressed. I own plenty of bank stock and will be very disappointed if our government chooses to nationalize my investment. ]]> Wed, 21 Jan 2009 19:14:09 -0500 Color me distressed. I own plenty of bank stock and will be very disappointed if our government chooses to nationalize my investment. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115405-can-banks-spell-nationalization?source=feed#comment-360604 360604
I could never trust foreign governments to seize my investment for any number of reasons.

I have money invested in banks and suddenly I hear calls for nationalization.

Government nationalization is a slippery slope. What's next- commodity businesses, oil companies, shipping companies, communications companies.

How can we expect to have capital formation when we do the same thing as Russia.]]> Tue, 20 Jan 2009 06:16:08 -0500
I could never trust foreign governments to seize my investment for any number of reasons.

I have money invested in banks and suddenly I hear calls for nationalization.

Government nationalization is a slippery slope. What's next- commodity businesses, oil companies, shipping companies, communications companies.

How can we expect to have capital formation when we do the same thing as Russia.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115319-what-should-the-aggregator-bank-do-with-all-those-troubled-assets?source=feed#comment-359599 359599
First the hypothetical math for an insolvent bank;

Good assets 100
Bad Assets 20 (really worth 10 or less)

Total Assets 120

Liabilities 110

Net Worth 10 (really worth 0 or negative depending on bad asset market value)


If the government buys the bad assets for 20 and makes the bank solvent the taxpayer will eat the loss. If the government buys the bad assets for 10 or less the bank is insolvent.

Since these institutions are too big to fail I believe we need to nationalize them. Shareholders will be wiped out (unfortunately).

The government will do a workout over time, reduce the size of these institutions so they are no longer too big to fail and ensure that our regulatory system does not allow institutions to become too big to fail.

The other option would be for the government to take a common equity position in these institutions and allow them to do their own workout while regulating to make sure that “too big to fail” is removed from our financial vocabulary.

In my opinion, the same people that brought us this disaster at these companies should not be the ones to stay in power. That’s why I favor nationalization.

Either way, lets face the problem and move on as a nation.









]]> Mon, 19 Jan 2009 08:27:28 -0500
First the hypothetical math for an insolvent bank;

Good assets 100
Bad Assets 20 (really worth 10 or less)

Total Assets 120

Liabilities 110

Net Worth 10 (really worth 0 or negative depending on bad asset market value)


If the government buys the bad assets for 20 and makes the bank solvent the taxpayer will eat the loss. If the government buys the bad assets for 10 or less the bank is insolvent.

Since these institutions are too big to fail I believe we need to nationalize them. Shareholders will be wiped out (unfortunately).

The government will do a workout over time, reduce the size of these institutions so they are no longer too big to fail and ensure that our regulatory system does not allow institutions to become too big to fail.

The other option would be for the government to take a common equity position in these institutions and allow them to do their own workout while regulating to make sure that “too big to fail” is removed from our financial vocabulary.

In my opinion, the same people that brought us this disaster at these companies should not be the ones to stay in power. That’s why I favor nationalization.

Either way, lets face the problem and move on as a nation.









]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114006-excel-maritime-carriers-set-up-to-excel?source=feed#comment-350488 350488
1) Maritime shipping is an important business. Entry is not easy.
2) BDI rates are volatile. EXM business is built around AAA customers who sign long term contracts and need a reliable shipping resource. Getting your goods from point A to B in the promised 12 days is important o both customer and supplier. EXM has a reliable modern fleet. The BDI is not as important in the long term.
3) Many of the new ship yards are not coming on line. Consequently forecast overcapacity is not accurate.
4) EXM has 4 new ships scheduled for delivery. All have been prechartered and will provide positive cash flow.
5) The deep pocketed partners of this company will provide capital for future investment limiting EXM need to invest cash. Since the major owners are interested in dividends this should leave cash available.
6) Although the balance sheet has a heavy debt load it must be understood in the context of this industry. Investing in ships takes capital, often borrowed. The lenders understand this. If the value of the ships fall and the company violates debt covenants the lenders may view this as a technical default. As long as cash flows are continuing and the loan is current they will not foreclose. Think of the ship as a machine that generates revenue. As long as this continues what difference do the ship values make in the short run.
7) The world growth story may be slowed but not permanently impaired. EXM is well positioned to take part.

I own stock in EXM


]]> Fri, 09 Jan 2009 07:16:41 -0500
1) Maritime shipping is an important business. Entry is not easy.
2) BDI rates are volatile. EXM business is built around AAA customers who sign long term contracts and need a reliable shipping resource. Getting your goods from point A to B in the promised 12 days is important o both customer and supplier. EXM has a reliable modern fleet. The BDI is not as important in the long term.
3) Many of the new ship yards are not coming on line. Consequently forecast overcapacity is not accurate.
4) EXM has 4 new ships scheduled for delivery. All have been prechartered and will provide positive cash flow.
5) The deep pocketed partners of this company will provide capital for future investment limiting EXM need to invest cash. Since the major owners are interested in dividends this should leave cash available.
6) Although the balance sheet has a heavy debt load it must be understood in the context of this industry. Investing in ships takes capital, often borrowed. The lenders understand this. If the value of the ships fall and the company violates debt covenants the lenders may view this as a technical default. As long as cash flows are continuing and the loan is current they will not foreclose. Think of the ship as a machine that generates revenue. As long as this continues what difference do the ship values make in the short run.
7) The world growth story may be slowed but not permanently impaired. EXM is well positioned to take part.

I own stock in EXM


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112389-buffett-s-biography-is-goldman-sachs-the-new-salomon-brothers?source=feed#comment-339604 339604
Also, you can read the " Intelligent Investor" . One of the chapters trace the ups and down of 4 different businesses over a period of time.

My opinion is that all businesses are cyclical. The cycle presents an investment opportunity for investors with a time horizon that exceeds the daily newspaper headlines.

]]> Sun, 28 Dec 2008 06:37:48 -0500
Also, you can read the " Intelligent Investor" . One of the chapters trace the ups and down of 4 different businesses over a period of time.

My opinion is that all businesses are cyclical. The cycle presents an investment opportunity for investors with a time horizon that exceeds the daily newspaper headlines.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111908-book-review-warren-buffett-and-the-interpretation-of-financial-statements-by-mary-buffett-and-david-clark?source=feed#comment-336112 336112 He says there are three ways to identify competitive advantage;

Economy of Scale
Captive Customers
Proprietary Technology

His book, Value Investing in a very informative read

]]> Mon, 22 Dec 2008 17:22:57 -0500 He says there are three ways to identify competitive advantage;

Economy of Scale
Captive Customers
Proprietary Technology

His book, Value Investing in a very informative read

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109446-ny-fed-opens-pawn-shop-to-buy-abs-junk?source=feed#comment-322478 322478 This should bring down the spread and lower rates. I'd like to hear the logic against doing this.]]> Sat, 06 Dec 2008 14:14:14 -0500 This should bring down the spread and lower rates. I'd like to hear the logic against doing this.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107390-the-financial-crisis-getting-the-best-of-warren-buffett?source=feed#comment-312834 312834 Sun, 23 Nov 2008 09:48:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/107390-the-financial-crisis-getting-the-best-of-warren-buffett?source=feed#comment-312827 312827 Sun, 23 Nov 2008 09:42:05 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106856-yet-more-paulson-revisionism?source=feed#comment-310349 310349 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 18:40:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/105143-goldman-sachs-back-in-the-crosshairs?source=feed#comment-302341 302341 As a betting man I see the logic. ]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 16:49:23 -0500 As a betting man I see the logic. ]]>