goatfarmer

Are We At a Key Inflection Point?

Guessing based on a hunch gleaned from a segment of radio listening. Too impressionistic for my liking.

Four Reasons to Believe in the "Bear Stearns Bottom"

All of this is just guessing. If one is to look at technicals, one should wait for a bottom. There are still massive tops in all US indices. The NYSE composite index has the largest and most persuasive top. Europe ETFs tell the same story. I would also be looking at new highs vs. new lows. Check out my site. Theres a page on US markets with some charts on these topics.

Market Outlook: Watch Out, the Signs Can Be Deceiving

The experience of Asian banks after the 1997 financial crisis might be instructive. In the case of banks in Hongkong, the rebound was quite swift. But in the case of Thailand, most banks made a swift rebound after a year, only to fall for a second bottom lasting 8 years. Some banks have not returned to their 1997 levels, after 10 years. Which category would the US banks fall into? Check out some charts on my site.

Best and Worst Dow, S&P 500 Performers YTD

WMT is the news of the week. Finally a breakout after three years of bottoming. This is either a bullish signal or a tease. A week or two should give some indication.

I would agree with the Missouri man. This forum is no place for moaners, whingers,and the otherwise innumerate. I hope this site doesn't descend to the depths of yahoo message boards. Once again, a challenge for the editors of the site exists. Please edit detritutus.

Don't Buy (Sell) The Bear

True, earnings have doubled since 2001. But more interesting, earnings are almost double those of 1999 when the index was at a comparable level to 2007. As to whether that 100% will repeat again in the next so many years, that's quite an assumption.

Interesting to see a combination of technicals and valuations.

as to the f sharp minor, this reader would prefer to see the bear march to the tune of op.53.

What Kind of Bounce Can We Expect?

Guessing, guessing and more guessing: I prefer the Doris Day rule: que sera sera...

10 Important Facts on the Current State of the Market

2. 'Technical analysis' is a misnomer, covering a wide spectrum of quantitive speculation from fanciful to the fundamental. Ultimately, there are only those who believe they can predict the future and those humble bogles who think that the index is king.
4. Other european indices are up. IEV, which tracks the SnP Europe 350 Index, is up around 13%.
5. A case for diversification via ETFs.
6. Japan is in a 17 year down trend. If it breaks that trend, I think it will be the rage. Every man and his dog will want to own Japan. There won't be a mother's son who won't own Japan. Japan will be THE core of everyone's portfolios for years to come. But only tea leaves and crystal balls will tell you when that year will be.
9. Check out some other indices, rather than the DJ variety.
10. Ditto.

Approaching Recession? It's Already Here

My goodness! 500 billion smackeroos! That's a lot of Moolah! (Yes, you guess it, I'm a Fisher fan.)

Stephen Leeb suggests that when the price of oil has risen 80% in the last 12 months, the economy is in for a shock and markets will turn bearish. I have yet to see evidence of a major turn. But bear markets take a while to manifest.

As for being in a recession, almost by definition, they are over before you can confirm them. If you are worried about 'the full onslaught' you might be disappointed. It will probably be over by the time it's confirmed. But if you are really worried, I suggest you start a goat farm - the best hedge against recession or depression or economic anxiety of any kind!

Who's Failing Us With Bad Information?

Those who enforce accounting standards are to blame.

August Was a Bad Month - But Keep It In Perspective

One of the best common sense articles I've read in a long time.