Apple's (AAPL +1.6%) bondholders have lost some $280.6M on paper (somewhat cleverly dubbed an "iLoss" by WSJ) since the debt was issued last month as speculation of QE tapering has sent 10-year Treasury yields climbing. Losses on the 10-year "iBond" sat at ~$137M through Tuesday as prices sunk to 97.377 cents on the dollar. The spread to Treasurys has also widened since issuance, Bloomberg says. [View news story]
This only happens to AAPL bond holders. Buyers should have known the risk going in.
More from Gundlach: Not concerned about inflation, he calls TIPS (TIP) "pretty bad" investments and says he'll be a buyer if the 10-year (TLT) yield bounces back to 2% (off 3 bps today to 1.94%). As for the inevitable Apple (AAPL -3.3%) question - he prefers the common stock to the just-issued bonds. Warren Buffett says he prays for stocks he owns to go down in price - it allows him and company repurchase programs to buy at better prices. Is Apple putting money to work the last couple of days? [View news story]
Why buy today when the 300's are just around the corner? The word refresh for the IPad/I Phone this summer and the inevitable 180 the market is do for doesn't look promising.
Having digested more bad news and 4 days away from an FQ2 report expected to show an 18% Y/Y EPS drop, "investors are suspicious about the ‘E’" in Apple's (AAPL) P/E, notes fund manager Lawrence Creatura. But for now, Apple (AAPL) trades at just 5.6x FY13 EPS after backing out cash. Or as BI puts it, Apple needs only 6 years to produce enough cash to match its enterprise value, if it was simply produced at FY12's rate. The FQ2 report could include light guidance for an FQ3 that's about to see Samsung's Galaxy S IV go on sale, and could see iPhone/iPad buyers delay purchases ahead of refreshes. Is that enough to justify a valuation lower than Dell's? [View news story]
I was tempted at $530 back in January but didn't. So, how did that work out for me?
OF ALL THE BROKERS YOU LIST AND THEIR PRICE TARGETS, ONLY 5 HAVE IT RIGHT. THAT WOULD BE THOSE WHO HAVE PRICE TARGETS IN THE $ 400'S. AAPL WILL NOT SEE $500 LET ALONE $600 OR $700 THIS YEAR. YET, 35 OUT OF 40 THINK IT WILL SOAR. ASK YOURSELF, HOW HAVE THEY DONE SO FAR????????
Tim Cook: The (Negative) $250,000,000,000 Man [View article]
The only reason Bill Shamblin's article (which I liked) is getting sooo much attention is because the majority of SA readers have failed to exercise basic investing discipline and are overweight AAPL in their portfolios. They bought to much and paid to much and are now hoping it recovers so they can get out. Hoping would be mistake # 2
"We think that Apple could be on the brink of driving a major leveraging up," writes JPMorgan's Mark Moskowitz in a voluminous note defending the stock. He believes the company will take on $15B-$20B in debt and bump the dividend yield to 4%. As far as operations, Moskowitz expects an earnings beat this quarter and upward pressure on estimates for 2013. AAPL +0.9% premarket. [View news story]
Apparently Mr. Market doesn't believe with Mr. Moskowitz and it won't believe Mr. Cook next week. A 4% dividend will put a floor under the stock. Unfortunately, the floor will be 5% lower from where we are now. Any disappointment and we're looking at $375.
A Fallen Apple Equals A Gift To Investors Even If Sales And Margins Decline [View article]
If your tired of hearing all this BS sell your shares and buy the January 15 400's. They're selling for $65. If AAPL hasn't recovered by then it probably never will.
Apple (AAPL -5.8%) has hit levels last seen in Dec. '11 following Cirrus Logic's warning and a Digitimes report about declining iPad Mini shipments. Cross Research calls Cirrus' warning "a reminder of weakening demand, and the challenges around product transitions" for Apple. Tero Kuittinen, noting sub-30M June quarter iPhone sales estimates and worries about the margin impact of emerging markets promotions, thinks "several nightmare scenarios have been priced in." "The naked fear of former Apple bulls is exactly what we need just before the earnings come out." [View news story]
So, on the 23rd, Cook announces a dividend and stock buyback as well as upgrades to the IPhone and IPad. He also hints at a cheaper and larger phone. The stock soars 10%. Now we're back to where we were 2 weeks ago. The cycle starts again.
iPad Mini shipments are expected to drop 20-30% in Q2 as consumers wait for the release of the next-generation iPad, reports Digitimes. LG Display (LPL) expects combined (iPad and iPad Mini) panel shipments of 3.5M in April and 3M in May and June, down from 5M in March. AAPL -1.1% premarket. [View news story]
Consumers are not waiting for the next generation "anything" with AAPL. They have found other alternatives as the competition gets stronger everyday. Cook is a day late and a dollar short. AAPL is down 17 points today on rumors. Wait till reality sets in on the 23rd. A dividend increase and Iphone/Pad refresh will do nothing to stop the bleeding. AAPL will spend more time trading in the $300's this year vs the $500's.
The iPhone 5S is "having pre-production issues with mass production at least a month or more away," writes Jefferies' Peter Misek after visiting Asian suppliers; Misek was among the first to report of March quarter iPhone order cuts. He also thinks the launch of a cheaper iPhone could be pushed back to the Dec. quarter, and states "suppliers are worryingly beginning to discount Apple's (AAPL +1.1%) build plans following ~6 months of revisions." Misek, who has a $420 PT, is forecasting below-consensus FQ2 and FQ3 results ahead of April 23's FQ2 report. (Foxconn hiring) (WSJ iPhone report) [View news story]
SA viewers have already "discounted" Misek's thoughts and comments.
Why I Would Sell Apple If It Rehires Ron Johnson [View article]
AAPL has spent the last 3 months in a nose dive while the overall market has been soaring to unrealistic levels. It looks like it's time for the market to take a deep breath. I can't imagine AAPL bucking this trend. That being said, AAPL is not cheap. It will be cheaper after earnings next week and in the months ahead.
Apple's (AAPL +1.6%) bondholders have lost some $280.6M on paper (somewhat cleverly dubbed an "iLoss" by WSJ) since the debt was issued last month as speculation of QE tapering has sent 10-year Treasury yields climbing. Losses on the 10-year "iBond" sat at ~$137M through Tuesday as prices sunk to 97.377 cents on the dollar. The spread to Treasurys has also widened since issuance, Bloomberg says. [View news story]
Senate Slams Apple On Tax Avoidance [View article]
David Trainer's $240 Apple Price Target Analysis Just Doesn't Add Up [View article]
More from Gundlach: Not concerned about inflation, he calls TIPS (TIP) "pretty bad" investments and says he'll be a buyer if the 10-year (TLT) yield bounces back to 2% (off 3 bps today to 1.94%). As for the inevitable Apple (AAPL -3.3%) question - he prefers the common stock to the just-issued bonds. Warren Buffett says he prays for stocks he owns to go down in price - it allows him and company repurchase programs to buy at better prices. Is Apple putting money to work the last couple of days? [View news story]
Apple: Massive Buyback Powers Shares After Hours [View article]
Having digested more bad news and 4 days away from an FQ2 report expected to show an 18% Y/Y EPS drop, "investors are suspicious about the ‘E’" in Apple's (AAPL) P/E, notes fund manager Lawrence Creatura. But for now, Apple (AAPL) trades at just 5.6x FY13 EPS after backing out cash. Or as BI puts it, Apple needs only 6 years to produce enough cash to match its enterprise value, if it was simply produced at FY12's rate. The FQ2 report could include light guidance for an FQ3 that's about to see Samsung's Galaxy S IV go on sale, and could see iPhone/iPad buyers delay purchases ahead of refreshes. Is that enough to justify a valuation lower than Dell's? [View news story]
Apple: Desperately Seeking Capitulation (Part 2) [View article]
Tim Cook: The (Negative) $250,000,000,000 Man [View article]
"We think that Apple could be on the brink of driving a major leveraging up," writes JPMorgan's Mark Moskowitz in a voluminous note defending the stock. He believes the company will take on $15B-$20B in debt and bump the dividend yield to 4%. As far as operations, Moskowitz expects an earnings beat this quarter and upward pressure on estimates for 2013. AAPL +0.9% premarket. [View news story]
A Fallen Apple Equals A Gift To Investors Even If Sales And Margins Decline [View article]
Investors Are Missing Apple's China Opportunity [View article]
Apple (AAPL -5.8%) has hit levels last seen in Dec. '11 following Cirrus Logic's warning and a Digitimes report about declining iPad Mini shipments. Cross Research calls Cirrus' warning "a reminder of weakening demand, and the challenges around product transitions" for Apple. Tero Kuittinen, noting sub-30M June quarter iPhone sales estimates and worries about the margin impact of emerging markets promotions, thinks "several nightmare scenarios have been priced in." "The naked fear of former Apple bulls is exactly what we need just before the earnings come out." [View news story]
iPad Mini shipments are expected to drop 20-30% in Q2 as consumers wait for the release of the next-generation iPad, reports Digitimes. LG Display (LPL) expects combined (iPad and iPad Mini) panel shipments of 3.5M in April and 3M in May and June, down from 5M in March. AAPL -1.1% premarket. [View news story]
The iPhone 5S is "having pre-production issues with mass production at least a month or more away," writes Jefferies' Peter Misek after visiting Asian suppliers; Misek was among the first to report of March quarter iPhone order cuts. He also thinks the launch of a cheaper iPhone could be pushed back to the Dec. quarter, and states "suppliers are worryingly beginning to discount Apple's (AAPL +1.1%) build plans following ~6 months of revisions." Misek, who has a $420 PT, is forecasting below-consensus FQ2 and FQ3 results ahead of April 23's FQ2 report. (Foxconn hiring) (WSJ iPhone report) [View news story]
Why I Would Sell Apple If It Rehires Ron Johnson [View article]