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nafar

nafar
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AIG, BAC, C, CSCO, CVVT, GM, GS, HPQ, JPM, MRK, MS, USB, WFC
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  • Futures slip as China plunges 8.5% [View news story]
    Commodity prices are falling as China is not buy to keep it inventory. The production of copper is increasing and so do the oil. The other reasons for falling commodity prices could be excess supply in the market and rise in US$ rate. There is no decrease in use of commodities in the world.
    Jul 28, 2015. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures slip as China plunges 8.5% [View news story]
    Why one considers a stock market and debt burst a bubble in China. We are much more in debt and our multiples are in line of Shanghai Composite. Is bubble burst also being forcasted for USA based on the Chinese market conditions for bubble burst. Million $ question perhaps.
    Jul 27, 2015. 07:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors: Down $285 Million On Its Share Acquisition (Repurchase) [View article]
    I think GM should enhance dividend instead of buy back. The 10% increase in dividend yield may push the price by atleast 7.5% if not 10% to match yield. GM has good plans and they have committed to ensure minimum 20% return on invested capital. I am long on GM as China With GDP growth of 5% average in next 3 years, GDP would jump atleast US$ 1.5Tr. Car Sales are bound to increase with more income and more people joining work force. Currently 70% car sales is the first time buyers which is a very good sign.
    Jul 26, 2015. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed finalizes capital surcharge amounts for SIFIs [View news story]
    Regards JPM additional capital requirement, their one year NI is sufficient to take care of additional US$ 12 B even after payment of regualar dividend. So the matter is not of concern. Good for the bank as it would be less riskier.
    Jul 25, 2015. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors: Down $285 Million On Its Share Acquisition (Repurchase) [View article]
    I am also surprised that even after few updrades on Friday, the price of shares further dipped. I think updrade by Goldman Sachs may salvage the damage.

    The management still feels that onjectives set for 2015 and 2016 would be met. Why then the price do not move up.

    Regarding China's decreasing growth rate, there should not be a concern so long there is growth over and above the population growth rate. The car sales must keep constant atleast if not goes up. In USA with negative growth rate in Q1 the car sales still went up. Anyway I see car sales not to decrease much in 2015 and years to come unless GDP turns negative.
    Jul 25, 2015. 05:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors Vs. Ford: Looking At The Impact Of China's Slowing Economy [View article]
    I think we should not look at the numbers only. China number car sales is no doubt more than USA, but in value it is just 1/3 of USA sales in value. I read it somewhere that 10% decrease in quantitative sales may hurt net income by 4%. Secondly I do not see slowing of car sales as the economy is growing at a much faster rate then all the developed economies of the world. 7% growth is quite a big number.
    Jul 15, 2015. 07:00 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cost controls help push JPMorgan to bottom-line beat [View news story]
    JPM beat estimates by US$ 0.02 and not by US$ 0.10. US$ 1.44 estimates was before any adjsutments for special items.
    Jul 14, 2015. 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating GM's 2016 Earnings [View article]
    Reply to Barlev query.

    Pension liabilities would effect cash flow and not profit. The expense has been accrued.

    DOJ penalty would certainly effect net income to common shareholders whenever a fine is imposed. Its quite possible they may have made some provision for the fine as banks do.

    EBITA would however remain the same.
    Jul 13, 2015. 07:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why General Motors Is Worth A Shot Near $30 [View article]
    The cost of gas struts should be below US$ 25 for GM. The approximate cost would be US$ 18 million for nearly 700K vehicles recalled today. In 2014 they have made a provision for cars prior to 2014 of over US$ 600 million and as such this small amount would be safely covered from it.

    The price is horribly down from threat of slow down of sales in cars in China. The sales in US$ just account for less than 15% of total revenue of GM. This can to some extent would be covered from increased sales in North America.
    I feel sales in China may not decrease in 2015 as sales of 20 mio cars in China is just less than 1% of ever fast growing middle class. The drop in stock price is just a correction from 100% increase in index in 7-8 months period prior to 15th June 2015. The fall even of 30% from peak leaves still leaves 40% from from November 2014 level.
    I am long on GM unless if someone puts facts proving I am wrong. I would for sure would sell the shares to minimize the loss.
    
    Jul 10, 2015. 02:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Fooled: GM Still A Risk At 7x Earnings [View article]
    GM to return back whatever in excess of US$ 20 B cash reserves. I have a feeling that their cash balance is down and as a result may not be buying shares when the price has gone so low. Q1 cash flow was a decrease.
    Jul 9, 2015. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating GM's 2016 Earnings [View article]
    A very good analysis. Would appreciate if you after knowing results for Q2, update the figures. One can base buying or selling on your analysis. What GS has done by downgrading GM from buy to dump is not understandable at all.
    Jul 6, 2015. 02:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs shifts to cautious stance on General Motors [View news story]
    That's cool. I never thought of it, Maine Reader
    Jun 30, 2015. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider General Motors If It Comes Down Some More [View article]
    To: Abba's Aces

    Your prediction came true. Great. I never believed the rate to go down so much so fast.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor: Getting Its Mojo Back After Goldman Sachs Upgrade? [View article]
    We cannot always look at the past. What's important is what GM has done and is doing to move the company ahead. The old GM is no more and has been declared bankrupt. Let's see what this new GM looks like. Had this was not important GS would not have rated buy rate earlier. Even now there is only one sell rating and 12 buys. I think CEO has a plan which she is following very closely. She has not changed her commitment for growth in different areas yet and rather reconfirmed the same goals in every interview or meeting with the investors.


    Regarding car sales in China, Ford has invested a lot and is fast expanding it. The reason is there are around 70% new first time buyers as against around 20% new buyers in US. So you can see where the market would go in years to come in China.

    Anyway Mr. American patriot, your way is looking from a different way is also a good thought.
    Jun 28, 2015. 07:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs shifts to cautious stance on General Motors [View news story]
    I do not understand why investors are giving importance to one analyst, i.e GS when there are 19 analysts for GM. Only one analyst have a rating of sell and the average price target is way up beyond US$42. The analyst of JP Morgan has a set a target price of US$51. Whom to believe? Seems all is doubtful when the financial wizards have extreme views in the age of tremendous availability of information. The analysts have forecasted lower EPS for Ford than GM for next 12 months. Why a downgrade then?
    Jun 26, 2015. 04:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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