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nafar

nafar
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AIG, BAC, C, CSCO, CVVT, GM, GS, HPQ, JPM, MRK, MS, USB, WFC
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  • Is The Bull Market In Energy Over? [View article]
    I still fail to understand why price of oil fell over 40% when the demand just fell by not more than 2%. The supply side currently matches closely to demand.

    Oil as said is used 70% on transportation. With tremendous increase in middle class (more then population growth rate), demand is likely to increase for oil.

    The cost differential of energy generated from oil has narrowed to other sources, like natural gas, coal, solar, nuclear, etc. This would for sure would enhance the demand for oil back.

    The largest reserves are held by middle eastern countries (nearly world's 50%) and they have all along the trend setters of price of oil. They are not going to sit on sidelines and watch their revenue falls down. They would soon go in to push higher output so as to make the other sources of energy uneconomical including oil from sea bed, oil from arctic areas and may be shale oil.
    One thing is clear, the consumers are the winners. This would ceertainly help in improving balnace payment position of countries heavily dependent on oil - like China, Western Europe, Japan and India. The World economy is bound to grow at a higher rate then projected by the World Bank. Let's see what their revision is?
    Dec 14, 2014. 07:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High-Yielding General Motors Continues To Be A Deeply Discounted Stock [View article]
    I am not sure what would be the eventual financial impact of law suit of US$ 3 billion filed by Arizona. What if other staes follow too. Is this not reason why the share price is low?
    Nov 27, 2014. 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: JPMorgan Chase Q3 2014 [View article]
    I just have to add 3 things -

    There was a big loss in Q3 2013 (resulting from one time huge settlement with DOJ) which has effected the trailing EPS. So there is a need to show forward P/E including estimated EPS for Q3. Then the trailing EPS on Tuesday would jump above US$ 5.5 and P/E strengthening down below 12.

    JPM has already made huge repurchase of shares in first 2 quarters. So there is not the full amount of US$ 6.5 billion available as the above analysis suggests.

    Another settlement reached of US$ 4.6 billion in Q3 is missing from the facts subsequent to Q2. What is not known to what extent provision is available to cover for this amount.
    Oct 11, 2014. 07:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup Is Overly Favored By The Analysts [View article]
    I think once they begin to return capital through dividend and buy back, the shares would go up even the EPS is lesser than previous quarters. People look for the yield more than the P/E for investors who look for actual payout.

    Banks would continue to perform well so long as economy is growing in USA in particular and weighted average growth rate of the rest of the economies is positive.
    The current method of Stress Test and other regulations seems to prevent the economy to grow faster but would sure prevent recession normally foreseen with large growth rates. So I think banks would perform well.
    All the analysis as such depends on what the new rules are in place. If these regulations were not inplace, I am sure the economy would have grown faster (normally it is so after recession period) and banks without Dodd Frank regulations would have been making huge profits. Now much of their freedom is done with.
    May 31, 2014. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Have Insiders, Institutional Investors, And Shorts Reacted To Turmoil At JPMorgan? [View article]
    Ref: To Robert's remarks

    The interest rate is not expected to increase because of QE so long the money do not find the way in the hands of people. Currently, nearly half of the funds went back to Fed as a depsoit from banks. Further huge sum found its way in the international market. So there is no money ( I mean not much) in USA market because of QEs.

    Banks have a cyclical nature and its related to the economic performance. So long performance is positive in the world, the banks would do well.
    May 9, 2014. 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Have Insiders, Institutional Investors, And Shorts Reacted To Turmoil At JPMorgan? [View article]
    A good analysis. The institutional investors are avoiding sale of JPM shares in fear of price being falling further as there is no support or new buying from institutional buyers. The price dived by over 10% when they reduced their holdings from 80% to 78%. Further, There is heavy net selling from insiders.

    What I am failing to understand why JPM or any bank is not doing good when fundamentals are intact. There is no recession in major exconomies of the world and IMF has forecasted higher GDP of world from 2013 to 2014. Banking sector needs a growing economy to sustain their profiatability. What more they need?
    May 8, 2014. 07:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan's Prospects Look Bleak In The Short Term, But Patience May Prevail [View article]
    I consider the banks to do good business till such time the economy is growing. The economy of USA (barring the Q1'14) is doing good. The employment is continuing at a good speed that reinforces that the economy is doing good. The business houses would not hire for the sake of hiring.

    JPM has large funds parked with Federal Reserve at virtually zero interest rate. This huge amount if invested in loans and securties would widen the Net Interest Margin.

    Further, JPM should avoid stock compensation to employees as this increases the quantum of stocks.
    May 7, 2014. 10:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan: Nibble The Dip? [View article]
    Business is the variable for to judge the reputation. Since many big banks were involved in one way or the other, the people are not left with any choice then to stick to their banks.

    What is disappointing why they did not retreat again the expected earnings for 2014 to be range from 15% to 16%. Had they made the mistake earlier and now quietly getting back from this forward guidance. This is the biggest negative during the conference call. I expect they should come forward and clear the forward guidance.
    Apr 13, 2014. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan Deserves To Be Down After Reporting Decreased Revenues [View article]
    The Net Income for 1Q'14 is virtually same as last quarter - 4Q'13. How come EPS is 1.28 now and the last quarter 1.40 as stated above. If credit losses are subtracted from both periods, then there is more profit than Q4'13 by 742 million / EPS 0.20. Credit losses let's assume relate to period prior to 4Q'13. Is this, should not be the way to look at it? Anyway things get clearer if one put's is point of view.
    Apr 12, 2014. 02:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why JPMorgan Chase Will Beat Estimates Despite Sluggish Economy [View article]
    Yes these analysis just misled us. Every year JPM used to give expected retrun on tangible equity which they omitted in quarterly review presenation. I just do not understand why then they mentioned in their letter to shareholders just a couple of days back. Strange. Whom to believe.
    Apr 12, 2014. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America, JPMorgan Kick Off Upcoming Mega Bank Results [View article]
    As far JPM is concerned, I have seen analyst estimate of 1.40 for now over 3 months. That is not new. Everybody knows that the profit from corresponding period of last year it would be low. Why analyst do not compare also with the last quarterly result? Why then price is falling?
    Apr 10, 2014. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Notable earnings before Friday‚Äôs open [View news story]
    I also feel JPM has a tremendous potential. Have HQLA over $700 billion which when utilize in some investment can turn the corner with massive earnings. Interest margin which are currently down can bounce back when interest rate moves up. Another plus IMF has projected 3.6% growth for 2014 which is higher than 2013. For 2014, EPS would be 6.14 being 15% earnings on TBV. This has stated in Jamie Dimon, CEO's letter to shareholders attached with the Annual Accounts 2013.
    Apr 10, 2014. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why JPMorgan Chase Will Beat Estimates Despite Sluggish Economy [View article]
    What analysts estimate, Jamie Dimon in the letter to the shareholders estimated return on tangible equity of 15% instead of 16% predicted earlier. Even with 15% return, the EPS then comes to 6.15 for 2014. That's great.

    Operating expenses (excluding litigation ) is targeted one billion less in 2014.
    Apr 10, 2014. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why JPMorgan Is Heading To $65 [View article]
    I read in the Letter to Shareholders released today - 3 and half month passed of 2014 Jamie Dimon again mentioned that expect earnings to be 15% of tangible equity in 2014. This translated into EPS 6.15. This is great. Why don't we give this news to investors.

    The world economy as projected by IMF for the world is also on the upside from 2013 estimated actual growth. With economies going up, Jamie Dimon goal would be achieved for sure.
    Apr 10, 2014. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi Has Tremendous Upside Potential [View article]
    The Citi shares are trading at discount perhaps its tangible book value is included of Deferred Tax Asset amount which is slightly above US$ 50 billion at the year end.
    Mar 31, 2014. 06:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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