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nafar

nafar
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  • Why General Motors Is Worth A Shot Near $30 [View article]
    The cost of gas struts should be below US$ 25 for GM. The approximate cost would be US$ 18 million for nearly 700K vehicles recalled today. In 2014 they have made a provision for cars prior to 2014 of over US$ 600 million and as such this small amount would be safely covered from it.

    The price is horribly down from threat of slow down of sales in cars in China. The sales in US$ just account for less than 15% of total revenue of GM. This can to some extent would be covered from increased sales in North America.
    I feel sales in China may not decrease in 2015 as sales of 20 mio cars in China is just less than 1% of ever fast growing middle class. The drop in stock price is just a correction from 100% increase in index in 7-8 months period prior to 15th June 2015. The fall even of 30% from peak leaves still leaves 40% from from November 2014 level.
    I am long on GM unless if someone puts facts proving I am wrong. I would for sure would sell the shares to minimize the loss.
    
    Jul 10, 2015. 02:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Fooled: GM Still A Risk At 7x Earnings [View article]
    GM to return back whatever in excess of US$ 20 B cash reserves. I have a feeling that their cash balance is down and as a result may not be buying shares when the price has gone so low. Q1 cash flow was a decrease.
    Jul 9, 2015. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating GM's 2016 Earnings [View article]
    A very good analysis. Would appreciate if you after knowing results for Q2, update the figures. One can base buying or selling on your analysis. What GS has done by downgrading GM from buy to dump is not understandable at all.
    Jul 6, 2015. 02:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs shifts to cautious stance on General Motors [View news story]
    That's cool. I never thought of it, Maine Reader
    Jun 30, 2015. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider General Motors If It Comes Down Some More [View article]
    To: Abba's Aces

    Your prediction came true. Great. I never believed the rate to go down so much so fast.
    Jun 29, 2015. 09:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor: Getting Its Mojo Back After Goldman Sachs Upgrade? [View article]
    We cannot always look at the past. What's important is what GM has done and is doing to move the company ahead. The old GM is no more and has been declared bankrupt. Let's see what this new GM looks like. Had this was not important GS would not have rated buy rate earlier. Even now there is only one sell rating and 12 buys. I think CEO has a plan which she is following very closely. She has not changed her commitment for growth in different areas yet and rather reconfirmed the same goals in every interview or meeting with the investors.


    Regarding car sales in China, Ford has invested a lot and is fast expanding it. The reason is there are around 70% new first time buyers as against around 20% new buyers in US. So you can see where the market would go in years to come in China.

    Anyway Mr. American patriot, your way is looking from a different way is also a good thought.
    Jun 28, 2015. 07:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs shifts to cautious stance on General Motors [View news story]
    I do not understand why investors are giving importance to one analyst, i.e GS when there are 19 analysts for GM. Only one analyst have a rating of sell and the average price target is way up beyond US$42. The analyst of JP Morgan has a set a target price of US$51. Whom to believe? Seems all is doubtful when the financial wizards have extreme views in the age of tremendous availability of information. The analysts have forecasted lower EPS for Ford than GM for next 12 months. Why a downgrade then?
    Jun 26, 2015. 04:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor: Getting Its Mojo Back After Goldman Sachs Upgrade? [View article]
    If u see the ratios of the 2 companies, GM stands out. Forward P/E, Price to sales, Price to book value, cash flow per share, Debt to equity, dividend yield, trailing P/E. If GS wants to set aside all these and prefers F its their decision. So long China's growth is net positive (after taking into account population growth rate), there is no worry. Middle class grows normally faster than the GDP normally.
    Jun 26, 2015. 08:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor: Getting Its Mojo Back After Goldman Sachs Upgrade? [View article]
    Today all would see in Analysts and large investors confernece to be held by GM at 10am whther downgrade is the correct analysis of GS or not. I see GM has figures and update information which would prove GS downgrade is not correct. The current ratios of GM far outweigh the Ford's.

    China no doubt is slowing in growth rate but it is growing far far better than any top 10 large economies of the world. Why we always try to play this card negatively?
    Jun 25, 2015. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Fooled: GM Still A Risk At 7x Earnings [View article]
    I think autos are not yet at the top of the cycle. Currently, the average age of vehicles is 10 years and addition to employment is continuing with increase in wages.
    Why you are having this opinion about autos reaching the top of the cycle? Nearly 80%+ new autos sales are for replacement of older car.
    Jun 21, 2015. 08:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Fooled: GM Still A Risk At 7x Earnings [View article]
    I have similar opinion as Pikefitter2. Even yeasterday CEO of GM confirmed about its plan intact which she laid it from time to time months back. We have tendency to believe persons who speculate and do not care what CEO says. Let's think positively unless CEO proves otherwise.
    Jun 10, 2015. 11:51 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sales slip for General Motors in China during May [View news story]
    Year to date growth in China and USA is 5.1% and 4.9% respectively. With expected loss to decrease significantly in European countries (except Russia), virtually no ignition recall related expenses, increase in quantitative sales, no dividend nor buy backs of preference shares and decrease in shares (result of buy backs) would boost EPS in Q2 for sure.

    Regarding penalty by DOJ I am sure the company must have made provision for this in 2014. May be less than actually it may come in summer.

    Any comments
    Jun 4, 2015. 12:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors: Investor Confidence Screeches To A Halt Over Possible Criminal Charges [View article]
    Mike - Your comment that impact of DOJ penalty is priced in is 100% correct. However, the impact amount taken by analyst is not known. So uncertainty prevails.

    Do anyone any idea or firm knowledge how much provision GM made for penalty in their books in 2014?
    May 30, 2015. 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors: Investor Confidence Screeches To A Halt Over Possible Criminal Charges [View article]
    Mike do you have an idea how much DOJ penalty is priced in? Further any idea how much GM may have made provision in 2014 accounts?

    GM would do well as they would pass on the reduction in prices in China on their vendors and cut in expenses there. Further increase in volume would help to maintain absolute profitability for sure.
    May 30, 2015. 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors Wards Off Bad News; Does Bad News No Longer Shock? [View article]
    Its a good investment. With high loss areas are getting closed, the profitability is going to increase. Is anyone knows whether GM made a provision last year for DOJ penalty and what approximatley the amount?
    May 27, 2015. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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