Seeking Alpha

AMDFANBOY

AMDFANBOY
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View AMDFANBOY's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • AMD's Layoffs: Liposuction Or Lobotomy? [View article]
    I can only repeat that many are exaggerating a little bit. AMD does have some assets such as some packaging fabs in Asia but they also have more than a billion in cash and Seifert even wanted to keep some money for some more aquisitions during the q2 conference.

    Now they are trying to do something BEFORE the situation becomes really serious and this is of course the right moment.

    BTW, next year they will switch to a new production process with 28 nm bulk with should be much cheaper than current 32 nm SOI.

    Therefore I think they can stay in the blacks and this what counts.
    Oct 14 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Layoffs: Liposuction Or Lobotomy? [View article]
    Perhaps for better understanding only: The very successful Bobcat processor, also known as E-450, C-60 and now Z-60 or Hondo, which is designed for T&L Notebooks, Netbooks and now Tablets was designed by a small team in India which very little expenses and without any troubles it seems. It is cheap to produce, has still very nice graphics performance and competes very successfully against Intels Atom.

    In contrast. some designs from North America look overengineered against it and caused troubles here and there for coming too late or did not really match the expectations.
    Oct 14 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Layoffs: Liposuction Or Lobotomy? [View article]
    There are many worries around AMD, there is nothing to deny any more. But there are some encouraging details:

    AMD already cut costs by around 7% according to the recent warnings and without the write down of inventories AMD would probably come close to zero earnings.

    There are still hopes for q4 such as the introduction of three new processors for high performance Desktorps and servers (Piledriver, soon to be announced), Trinity for medium desktops (very well received in the DIY.market) and Hondo for Tablets (little publicity because it is a cheap chip but possibly high volumes in cheap markets). We probably can also expect a nice cash payment from a game console maker that launches a game computer powered by AMD-graphics very soon.

    Layoffs? Merger? There are many rumours around now but they are still rumours. Although something is likely to happen.

    An internal memo from the CEO was also published, but the authenticity can not be confirmed here.

    There are even more possibilities not mentioned before. AMD could cut jobs in North America and create new ones in India.

    Rory P. Read hinted sometimes that the Bobcat processor is AMDs most successful chip ever, with little costs while the teams in America caused many troubles, first with Llano and then with Bulldozer.

    I think such a solution could be very likely, perhaps in combination with a cash infusion from a leading investor.

    I know that some will answer that the situation is too bad etc. but I think much of the rumours are somewhat exaggerated or not hitting the point.

    I remember times when the situation was much worse. When AMD had no meaningful notebook chip at all, no server chip and only relying on an aging medium class Athlon for desktops. The numbers were also much worse than today with losses reaching half the sales or so.

    Now AMD has all these products and even graphics and new products are to appear this year and early next year.

    Still, there is something to come.
    Oct 14 07:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD's Z-60 APU Earns It A Place In The Tablet Wars [View article]
    AMD has always kept its promises and in the case of this particular chip I can say that it is already available for nearly two years, only slightly modified for tablets. And the article says the truth: it is (in contrast to ARM) x86- compatible and has better graphics than its Intel counterparts.

    You can connect a standard mouse and keyboard for a few dollars and then you have a pc without any limitations.
    Oct 9 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD And Oracle Announce GPU Accelerated Java: An Investment Opportunity [View article]
    It might become a deal after 1-2 years if Oracle decides to build APU-servers with AMD.

    But even if not I would like to discuss a different issue: Tablets.

    Many analysts say that the PC is going to die more or less because of ARM and the Tablets.

    However, after Intel AMD just released an own tablet chip.

    I see a large business opportunity here. Just stick a keyboard for 5 bucks into the usb-slot and a mouse and you have a pc.

    No Android tablet can offer this and even Apple looks behind here because you cannot turn an iPad into a Mac!

    This big advantage could change the market in favour of Wintel and AMD in a few years!
    Oct 9 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD And Oracle Announce GPU Accelerated Java: An Investment Opportunity [View article]
    This here is only one Lego part in the game. I think in the future we will see more GPU power and less that of the CPU because a GPU has much more computing power at very low energy consumption.

    We must also consider that both ARM/RISC and x86 include almost the same kind of controller functionality for i/o as well as cache and so on with the core becoming less important.

    Therefore, the power saving advantages of ARM and RISC in general will disappear because the main force will be the GPU, while the CPU is more important for compatibility.

    Here is the true strength of AMD: very strong GPU power for heavy workloads combined with the x86 compatibility of an also quite competitive PC-Processor.

    No other company in the world can provide this.
    Oct 9 11:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Stocks Under $5 Moving On News To Consider: 3 Trades, 2 Traps [View article]
    How can we approach a stock like Nokia? I think it is not so much technical or fundamental, here we have to look for fashion or opinion leadership. Years ago Nokia was almighty, even capable of raising the entire Dow. But today Nokia is out and I am afraid that it will not be easy for the company to find a way out of this crisis.

    If they had only adopted Android like all the other companies! But they wanted to remain #1 and took the risc and now they are down with little hope. Will W8 make them recover? Perhaps a little but the true winner is Samsung!
    Oct 8 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Stocks Under $5 Moving On News To Consider: 3 Trades, 2 Traps [View article]
    Addendum:

    BTW, the new tablet chip is set to be introduced TOMORROW! The top secret link is here:

    http://bit.ly/RqsfCc
    Oct 8 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Stocks Under $5 Moving On News To Consider: 3 Trades, 2 Traps [View article]
    The article reveals how the markets work. People are analyzing too many stocks with the result that they exaggerate some things while overlooking others.

    It is true and interesting that AMD has some good aspects such as very low price given the good fundamentals. It is also heavily shorted or maybe even overshorted depending how you like to have it.

    However, the problems of HP have little influence on AMD and here is why: Much like Dell, HP too is losing ground to competitors from Asia such as Lenovo, Acer and Asus. Here are the main problems and HP has to costs and to focus on higher margin businesses.

    Secondly, the author sees no bullish catalysts but I do! News from digitimes/taiwan suggest that the recent crisis was related to the digestion of inventories in the months before the release of Windows 8 and that there was a steep increase in demand since September.

    The author may not know but I know that AMD is going to release a tablet chip which is superior in some regards to both ARM and Intel, since it is x86-compatible and supports the newest DX11 standards.

    Not to forget that AMD just released the A5000-Series for Desktops which already shows strong demand and another, high performance DT-Chips is expected to arrive in the wake of the W8-introduction.

    No positive catalysts? These are three product launches in one month and next month we will face the release of Nintendos WiiU with AMD graphics.

    Early next year we will see probably some more exciting new products but this may not be an issue today.
    Oct 8 11:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Launches 'Trinity' For The Desktop - A Zero Or A Hero? [View article]
    Taking the impact of the financial crisis into account the pc market does not perform so badly. Cheap pcs still sell very well. When Trinity started this week, shops in Akihabara were full of buyers.

    In contrasdt, Ultrabooks are not so attractive and even Tablets show some signs of maturing. Recent numbers suggest that the market for tablets did not grow at all in the last 12 months, in spite of cheaper models from Amazon.

    I also expect W8 tablets to replace Androids earlier or later and maybe Apple as well. Why should people buy any incompatible tablets any more?
    Oct 4 06:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy AMD Before Third Quarter's Earnings [View article]
    A small company? Fourth? In my view ARM is a small company, by sales, while AMD belongs to the great powers, even above Nvidia.

    And AMD is second only to Intel. You know what that means? There is no law that would not allow AMD to increase shares and margins and come closer to INTC.

    Two times they were very close to their goal: Around 2001, but after the boom 2000 demand decreased and AMD fell from around 100 (before split) to around 1 (after split).

    AMD recovered years later with the K8 and Opteron and the share increased to 40. Even at that time AMD had no real Notebook chip. Then they aquired ATi and the share fell again.

    Now AMD has very succesful Notebook chicps, Bobcat and Trinity, with Piledriver to come next this month for DT and server.
    This time AMD will achieve the breakthrough. They are not dependent on a single architecture any more. They have three different APUs and CPUs and GPUs.
    Oct 3 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy AMD Before Third Quarter's Earnings [View article]
    I forget to mention one important thing:

    There are even more AMD-bashers!

    People want to bash AMD because they are short or because they want to buy shares very soon!
    Oct 3 04:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy AMD Before Third Quarter's Earnings [View article]
    I do not agree with the headline. Here is why:

    The weakness in q2 and q3 is NOT the failure of AMD. Intel warned as well which only reveals that there were other reasons behind the problems.
    The truth is that consumers wait for Window 8 and that the dealers wanted to clear out their inventories. It did not make sense to produce PCs with Windows 7. We can suggest that MSFT is aiming for an Apple-like kickstart and doing anything to get positive headlines when W8 will be launched. This is also the reason why so many people are downplaying the impact of W8. Some people bash for other reasons but even Wintel supporters try to downplay it because they are afraid that they cannot deliver.

    Therefore, there will be most probably a very strong catch up demand. This alone will help AMDs outlook since it has plenty of inventories. Some people say even too much but this may be an advantage. There are also new products such as Trintiy, Piledriver, Hondo, Nintedo WiiU and I cannot imagine that the outlook for q4 will NOT improve significiantly!

    I am after this market for many years and I know that q4 was always a very good quarter, if not the very best for AMD. q2 is also traditionally very good but the weakness this year only supports the expectation that q4 might become very beautiful for investors.

    I realize that there are still people who want to bash AMD even further. They forget that AMD made profits for many consecutive quarters, even with so many problems on the road. AMD was always overbashed and overshorted.

    AMD was bashed after the warning, then when they presented the numbers, then again when Intel warned, which in fact could be even positive for AMD, then again because Seifert leaved which in fact had nothing to do with the business. Not with the numbers, as outlined in the press release, and as the "chief bean counter", Seifert is not so much involved in other fields.
    There are also a lot of articles around suggesting that so many people are leaving AMD like rats a sinking ship. This is nonsense in my view. While there is always some come and go I think that it is possible to replace people. AMD is not like a football team, it is a big company. Moreover, many people just ignore the fact that AMD also hired excellent first class staff such as Lisa Su, Mark Papermaster and Keller and some others I do not remember now.

    All in all I think that most of the bashing against AMD lacks any substance. There are also many tablet hypers who think that the pc is over. This is not true. Some "researchers" are presenting numbers but they are not telling the truth behind the numbers. Yesterday I read that in the US there were much more tablets sold in 2011 than in 2012!

    The tablet hype is an Apple hype and will be over soon. Texas Instrument, one of the biggest players in the tablet field, basically LEFT this market a few days ago! Imagine! The pc-weakness is a result of the financial crisis and only little influenced by tablets.

    People who bash may come from the supporters of Intel, Nvidia, ARM and even Apple. Intel is afraid because they have 80% market share which could become difficult to sustain if AMD becomes strong. NVidia, ARM and Apple look very overhyped to me compared to AMD. Why does Nvidia without x86 has much more value than AMD?
    And Apple? The most expensive company in history? They have a slightly modified ARM-chip like 20 other competitors. If I had Apple shares, I would sell them immediately and switch to AMD!

    2013 will become really big for AMD. I see AMD in the 10-20 Dollar range next year and maybe even more to come.

    Jaguar, Steamroller, Excavator, server APUs without competition and double digit production cost saving with the introduction of 28 nm bulk instead of expensive 32 nm SOI.
    Oct 3 04:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Launches 'Trinity' For The Desktop - A Zero Or A Hero? [View article]
    AMD is probably the most bashed company I know. Fans and Shareholders of Intel, Nvida, ARM and Apple are all bashing AMD, as well as many analysts and journalists who are parroting the bashers.

    If there is any bad news, all the financial computers switch into selling mode and the share dips again and again!

    But all the bashing has made AMD only stronger. In fact they are all bashing AMD because they are afraid of AMD. And I know why:

    Trinity kills the core i3 at the same price and piledriver should be somewhere between i5 and i7 and also very competitive.

    But it comes even better. Intels Tablet-chip supports only DX9 while AMD features the much more advanced DX11 standard.

    Intel graphics are years behind AMD graphics which are very competitive even against Nvidia, which in turn has no access tox86-technology and no x86-APU.

    With Seamicro and the APU AMD holds the key to open the door to the growing cloud markets: Java, Gaming and many more.

    Mark Papermaster declared that the next core, Steamroller, is almost ready with double digit performance increase. The APU version will feature GPGPU-capabilities for high performance and server applications.
    From 2013 AMD will start to manufacture 28nm bulk at Globalfoundries which will enable significant cost savings:
    no expensive SOI-wafers any more, smaller sized chips, use of standard tools and technology and more flexibility. Numbers are not available at this point, but I think double digit cost savings are more than realistic.

    2013 could become a great year for AMD!
    Oct 2 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Micro Devices - The Next Catalysts Approach [View article]
    I am in now. AMD was bashed too much: For the warning, for the numbers, for the Intel warning and then again for Seifert leaving the company.
    I think the CFO wanted to leave long ago, perhaps for more personal reason, but the warning took all by surprise.
    Think about demand increasing just now with new products imminent. Shorts will have to cover soon.

    On the long term I see great opportunities with the cloud. APU-servers are the right choice for Java and gaming clouds.

    Concerning tablets I see more and more evidence that this topic is overhyped. Androids are not successful at all, TXN will even leave this business. Apple seems to be hesitating to launch a new iPad.

    A tablet for 199$? You can get a very good netbook for 249 $ which also runs Android and cheap x86-Tablets with W8 AND Android are coming soon - not by Intel but with AMD!
    Oct 2 04:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
58 Comments
26 Likes