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Why Microsoft's XBox 360 Will Outsell Nintendo's Wii

I recognise your photo, I'm sure I've read your stuff before, and I'm sure I found it an equal load of b*ll*cks that time too!! In fact weren't you the guy that predicted the death of Blu-ray and the victory for HD-DVD? I'm sure that was you! Nice to see you have a proven track recording in predicting the market!!!

Part of me feels like picking your article apart line by line, but part of me can't be bothered as the inaccuracies and wrong assumptions are too many to correct!

Needless to say you are wrong on some fundamental assumptions like:

The 360 is way past the half-way point in it's live cycle and MS have no proven track record in dual generation support (look how long they kept the Xbox alive after the 360 came out!). I'd be surprised if we see 360's on store shelves in 3-4 years let alone 8!!! Like with all MS products 360 LIVE will probably be turned off 12 months after launch of 720 LIVE in order to force their customer base to upgrade, and surely XBox owners wouldn't want to be stung like this a 3rd time?

The 360 arcade is about as far from comparable with the PS3 as you can get - go out and buy a $150 HDD, a $100 Wi-Fi adapter, $20 controller charger, $50 online access, and a $300 Blu-ray player and then tell me the 360 Arcade (total $820) is better value than the $399 PS3 that includes it all in the box.

Very soon MS will have little choice but to update the 360 with a new console, the Wii and PS2 has shown graphics aren't the be all and end all, and you will get a new console with increased HDD capacity, an upgraded multi-core processor, HDMI, a high capacity storage solution and possibly some kind of motion sensing - in other words everything the PS3 has NOW! The day the 720 is released the PS3 will drop in price and multi-plat developers will be more used to the PS3 and will be able to use more capacity as both consoles will have that - in short the PS3 will look like a far better option than getting a 720 (aside from the Halo fans wanting Halo 4, which is already in development for the next Xbox according to some). If anything the 720 launch will probably help PS3 sales, and unlike last time Sony will take their time in bringing out a replacement (and that replacement will probably use Cell and is unlikely to reinvent the wheel again, in order to help the developers).

As for the Wii being short lived, I would say it's probably the most likely of them all to be around the longest, graphically it was out of date the day it launched but the Wii has never been and never will be about the graphics! The Wii doesn't need graphics that's not the point of it, it's almost a standalone device that has moved away from a "console war". Also the assumption that Wii owners will auto-upgrade to a 360 is utter fanboy nonsense, all you're doing is quoting MS execs with unfounded claims! If anything the range of titles on the PS3 would be more suited to Wii owners - unique PSN Store games, Buzz, Singstar, EyeToy games, and of course Sony's jewel in the crown of casual gaming - LittleBigPlanet! The recent MS E3 press conference shows just how out of touch the 360 is with the casual gamer by hastily launching a Mii-clone, a Singstar-clone, a Buzz-clone and an EyeToy-clone!

The 360 may have the quantity of games, thanks to the overly early launch (at the expense of hardware quality/reliability) there was a big period of dual PS2/360 hybrid multiplatform releases. But they certainly don't have the quality - a stereotypical Wii owner is more likely to go for LittleBigPlanet than Gears of War II!

It's also getting harder to justify LIVE as being "by far" the best online portal - Sony are doing some great work in this space lately and given that Sony's service is free it's getting harder and harder to justify paying $50+ for (Wii owners especially will take this into consideration). When you look at Sony's service and see an online store with really good quality download games, a unified logon and ID across all games (MGS4 being the one exception), trophy (aka achievement) support, friends list, online voice/video chat (soon to be improved by the official PS3 Bluetooth mic), online movie/TV show downloads, online music video streaming (in Europe), free trailer/demo/wallpaper... downloads and in-game access to the main menu etc. you've got to start taking their service seriously! Add to that Home (again a great service for the ex-Wii types) when it launches and Sony have a very compelling online offering, and short of cross-game invites a service that does everything LIVE does and more (for FREE). Add to that also the unique things Sony are doing in the online space that leave the LIVE series in the dust - like true MMO support, 256-player games, open platform and downloadable mods etc.

Next up, If anyone of the big 3 are going to add their technology into a TV it will be a PS3 because - a) Sony already make TV's too, b) Cell processors are already starting to be used in new-gen TV's, c) Blu-ray/PS3 built-in is much more attractive in a new HDTV than a DVD/360 built-in.

As for the PS3 losing money, what's you're point? Every console operates this business model, excluding the PS3. The money comes at the backend from software sales. Be under no illusion that Microsoft aren't losing money on the 360 hardware because they are, not to mention the billions it costs them to support RROD errors. In fact I would call this latest cut a clear sign of desperation from their part and will probably add to their losses but help claw onto their market share for a bit longer. It's their only trump card given they completely ignore the fact they launched 12 months early - time adjusted global console sales show the PS3 has sold approx 4M units MORE than the 360 at the same point in it's lifecycle, but you'll never hear MS quote those numbers!

Another point you fail to consider - with the install base of the PS3 increasing and the costs of game production going up it's getting harder and harder for MS to flash the cash and buy exclusivity, timed-exclusivity, or worst still (from the point of view of a 360 owner) an ex-PS3/PS2 exclusive. Meanwhile Sony has possibly one of the best first-party development capabilities with a lot of their "hardware sellers" coming from within Sony for the PS3 only (not even PC get these) and this is where Sony have decided to flash the cash (a much better use of funds in my view). Also as developers make games that are specifically tailored to PS3 hardware such as MGS4 and Heavy Rain these titles become exclusive by default. In other words the PS3 library of exclusives (already a lot bigger than you might think if you've read the recent compilation posted on some blogs) will continue to grow and Microsoft will continue to rely on their precious Halo franchise and a smattering of other Microsoft developed games.