The miners are marginally profitable at current pricing at best. The argument for lower gold pricing is flawed. The reason being there will be no new supply coming on line, and therefore the core demand will overwhelm supply. Econ 101 will prevail.
Secondly, if anyone believes the CB's will allow deflation, they are naive.... we will in the not too distant future see inflation, and that one is a problem that the CB's will have difficulty controlling. The last time I checked, there is no way to "un-print" money.
The masses, ( as well as the informed ) are always attracted to the investment "du jour", and today monetary reserves are flowing into where the perceived best return is located.
Gold and other precious metals do not pay dividends, nor are they in favor at the present time, because the fundamentals that drive the price are absent ( ie inflation, fear etc ), therefore a prudent trader / investor needs to wait for the season to change, and then make the jump .... in the meantime the money placed in these investments is decaying ( as in options ), or alternatively unavailable for more timely placements with a solid return.
Each of us have preferences when it comes to the Gold miners. Your well founded affection for ABX notwithstanding, I still favor GG for this type of strategy ( have done this with GG in the past very profitably), and prefer the fundamentals over ABX.
Barrick Gold And Harmony Gold Can Inflate Your Portfolio [View article]
Phil
You have an uncanny ability to spot opportunity when others do not see it ( a visionary, eh ) The mines will not get traction until the gold price has some appreciation, so I believe your idea of a "out in left field" 2015 play is prudent if a position is desired at this time.
My only critique would to play maybe the best miner, which I feel is AUY ( Yamanna ) which has diversification and one of the lowest cost of production. I also like a mixture of GDX and GDXJ, solely for diversification protection, in a business that has had some capital concerns of late.
Fall Down Thursday: Gravity Weighs On Equities For The Moment [View article]
We all agree the market is FAKE, FAKE, FAKE..... but that can be a benefit, as you can make a lot of "fake" dollars..... is there anything left that is for "real" ? .... maybe th coming of inflation, eh ?
Few have said it better than you... Avi is an inspirational educator, and his analysis does increase the probability of a trade success, by better identifying the entrance and exit points.
I have traded Forex for many years. In currency trading, all professionals look at changes in interest rates, CPI, unemployment stats as well as geopolitical risks that may jolt a currency one way or another. However... the EW charts and Fib counts are always the key data that activates the timing decision when money it put at risk.
I see some similar trading discipline in the trading of metals.... trading news is like walking a tightrope with a blindfold, and not an accurate method for seeking profit..... the pros rely on good chart analysis for confirmation prior to making a trade commitment.
Rumored WSJ Piece 'Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus' No Joke After All [View article]
Abegaz
The correction is coming much sooner than later. The Fed, through its QE has pumped the market upward, with a lot of hot air, therefore it also has the ability to let some air out in order to bring the markets back to reality.
The Fed was surprised by the massive BOJ easing, which has exacerbated the amount of air under our markets. I believe they will pull back, and when the markets are normalized, then return to the asset buying, and the markets then will return to their lofty perches in Bullsville.
If Monday is the "moment of truth", and the Fed rumors materialize, then this confirms your thesis, as the markets take their well deserved May correction. Drink one on me !
The End Of QE Won't Kill This Bull Market [View article]
Flash Crash Gordon
Just briefly, I agree with your statements completely. The monetary incentives are helpful to some degree in economic contractions, however Fiscal policy is equally important, but in our current situation, it is absent. This is the primary reason the recovery is dismal, and long overdue.
You are not only "wicked smart", but also a visionary. So few understand the consequences of the world-wide de-leveraging, as you say, so trying to find a protection plan for what is not understood is even more difficult.
Your long dated "classic" buy-writes are good tonic for this environment, and the environment appears to be with us for some time to come.... inflation is on its way !!!!!
Apparently behind the mid-afternoon drop in the S&P 500 (SPY) (a not insignificant 10 points), the soaring dollar (UUP), and sinking commodities (GLD, USO) was the rumor of a Jon Hilsenrath article set to hit the WSJ claiming "tapering" of asset purchases is coming sooner rather than later. Thus far, nothing is up. [View news story]
Tack
At the time it appears we are experiencing a concern of growing inflation, we will see a reversal to some degree of the current Fed policy. The statements made by the Fed in the past regarding employment statistics notwithstanding, the Fed is more concerned about growing inflation than any other metric.
When the Fed does diminish the monthly level of monetary expansion, we will experience a bearish opportunity in the bond market that will astound ever the bond bears.
Silver: Lower Levels Still Ahead Despite High Premiums [View article]
Thank you Joe.... It is invigorating to get a totally honest answer from one who is right there at ground zero.
At this point I am primarily trading paper derivatives, with the ultimate plan to convert my profits into physical silver form, once my profit targets will be achieved.
I have taken note of your business identity in Avi's post, and will definitely contact you at the time I want to take delivery of the physical metal.
Silver: Do Not Be Fooled - Lower Prices Ahead [View article]
blueice
I have been admonished by the editors of SA for a few of my comments, that were made by me in response to statements made by another contributor stating I was an "idiot" among other slurs.
I accordingly, in poor judgment, gave him a piece of my mind, and looking back was not respectful to those that are readers of this article. I apologize to you and the others that may have been offended. I regret my comments made in that regard.
Gold: Seemingly Very Bullish COT Report [View article]
I do not believe the PM markets are so small they could be the subject of "manipulation". Those days may have existed in the history books, but the markets are far too diversified today for any long term manipulation that is inferred.
In contrast, I do however believe there are attempts to "influence" markets on a short term basis. The is accomplished often through the publication of so called analysis developed by investment banks that have a large following. The announcement sometime ago by Goldman Sachs forecasting Gold to drop to a level of $1200/ oz. comes to mind.
Silver: Lower Levels Still Ahead Despite High Premiums [View article]
Another Joe
Is it not possible to hedge your inventory, as a dealer, in order to protect your inventory assets from a contraction in price?
If this were the case, then the dealers could continue to sell into a declining market, and provide a timely delivery, as well maintain a operational profit.
First Friday Of May: Go Away Or Stay And Play? [View article]
I enjoy your informative materials, Phil... as it is obviously beneficial to so many "styles" of trading the markets... long term, swing or day trading the market moves.
As a longer term trader, I really like you long term calls, as I for one recognize the difficulty of calling these, because the further out you go in time, projecting price movement becomes more difficult.
I have to congratulate you for your accuracy... You called the March 2009 market upward reversal almost to the day, and the AAPL reversal to THE day. Only one who has been a student of the economy and the markets over a period of time could have done this, and so many other accurate calls. I'm sure it was difficult and consistent work, but it did pay off... thanks from one who benefited big time !
Gold Going To $500? [View article]
The miners are marginally profitable at current pricing at best. The argument for lower gold pricing is flawed. The reason being there will be no new supply coming on line, and therefore the core demand will overwhelm supply. Econ 101 will prevail.
Secondly, if anyone believes the CB's will allow deflation, they are naive.... we will in the not too distant future see inflation, and that one is a problem that the CB's will have difficulty controlling. The last time I checked, there is no way to "un-print" money.
Gold Fails 3 Times [View article]
The masses, ( as well as the informed ) are always attracted to the investment "du jour", and today monetary reserves are flowing into where the perceived best return is located.
Gold and other precious metals do not pay dividends, nor are they in favor at the present time, because the fundamentals that drive the price are absent ( ie inflation, fear etc ), therefore a prudent trader / investor needs to wait for the season to change, and then make the jump .... in the meantime the money placed in these investments is decaying ( as in options ), or alternatively unavailable for more timely placements with a solid return.
Hope you are buying some of that real estate !!!
5 Great Trade Ideas: 30 Days Later [View article]
Each of us have preferences when it comes to the Gold miners. Your well founded affection for ABX notwithstanding, I still favor GG for this type of strategy ( have done this with GG in the past very profitably), and prefer the fundamentals over ABX.
Barrick Gold And Harmony Gold Can Inflate Your Portfolio [View article]
You have an uncanny ability to spot opportunity when others do not see it ( a visionary, eh ) The mines will not get traction until the gold price has some appreciation, so I believe your idea of a "out in left field" 2015 play is prudent if a position is desired at this time.
My only critique would to play maybe the best miner, which I feel is AUY ( Yamanna ) which has diversification and one of the lowest cost of production. I also like a mixture of GDX and GDXJ, solely for diversification protection, in a business that has had some capital concerns of late.
Fall Down Thursday: Gravity Weighs On Equities For The Moment [View article]
Silver: Look Out Above? [View article]
Few have said it better than you... Avi is an inspirational educator, and his analysis does increase the probability of a trade success, by better identifying the entrance and exit points.
I have traded Forex for many years. In currency trading, all professionals look at changes in interest rates, CPI, unemployment stats as well as geopolitical risks that may jolt a currency one way or another. However... the EW charts and Fib counts are always the key data that activates the timing decision when money it put at risk.
I see some similar trading discipline in the trading of metals.... trading news is like walking a tightrope with a blindfold, and not an accurate method for seeking profit..... the pros rely on good chart analysis for confirmation prior to making a trade commitment.
Rumored WSJ Piece 'Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus' No Joke After All [View article]
The correction is coming much sooner than later. The Fed, through its QE has pumped the market upward, with a lot of hot air, therefore it also has the ability to let some air out in order to bring the markets back to reality.
The Fed was surprised by the massive BOJ easing, which has exacerbated the amount of air under our markets. I believe they will pull back, and when the markets are normalized, then return to the asset buying, and the markets then will return to their lofty perches in Bullsville.
If Monday is the "moment of truth", and the Fed rumors materialize, then this confirms your thesis, as the markets take their well deserved May correction. Drink one on me !
The End Of QE Won't Kill This Bull Market [View article]
Just briefly, I agree with your statements completely. The monetary incentives are helpful to some degree in economic contractions, however Fiscal policy is equally important, but in our current situation, it is absent. This is the primary reason the recovery is dismal, and long overdue.
Thrilling Friday 15,000 Finish [View article]
You are not only "wicked smart", but also a visionary. So few understand the consequences of the world-wide de-leveraging, as you say, so trying to find a protection plan for what is not understood is even more difficult.
Your long dated "classic" buy-writes are good tonic for this environment, and the environment appears to be with us for some time to come.... inflation is on its way !!!!!
Apparently behind the mid-afternoon drop in the S&P 500 (SPY) (a not insignificant 10 points), the soaring dollar (UUP), and sinking commodities (GLD, USO) was the rumor of a Jon Hilsenrath article set to hit the WSJ claiming "tapering" of asset purchases is coming sooner rather than later. Thus far, nothing is up. [View news story]
At the time it appears we are experiencing a concern of growing inflation, we will see a reversal to some degree of the current Fed policy. The statements made by the Fed in the past regarding employment statistics notwithstanding, the Fed is more concerned about growing inflation than any other metric.
When the Fed does diminish the monthly level of monetary expansion, we will experience a bearish opportunity in the bond market that will astound ever the bond bears.
Silver: Lower Levels Still Ahead Despite High Premiums [View article]
At this point I am primarily trading paper derivatives, with the ultimate plan to convert my profits into physical silver form, once my profit targets will be achieved.
I have taken note of your business identity in Avi's post, and will definitely contact you at the time I want to take delivery of the physical metal.
Silver: Do Not Be Fooled - Lower Prices Ahead [View article]
I have been admonished by the editors of SA for a few of my comments, that were made by me in response to statements made by another contributor stating I was an "idiot" among other slurs.
I accordingly, in poor judgment, gave him a piece of my mind, and looking back was not respectful to those that are readers of this article. I apologize to you and the others that may have been offended. I regret my comments made in that regard.
Gold: Seemingly Very Bullish COT Report [View article]
In contrast, I do however believe there are attempts to "influence" markets on a short term basis. The is accomplished often through the publication of so called analysis developed by investment banks that have a large following. The announcement sometime ago by Goldman Sachs forecasting Gold to drop to a level of $1200/ oz. comes to mind.
Silver: Lower Levels Still Ahead Despite High Premiums [View article]
Is it not possible to hedge your inventory, as a dealer, in order to protect your inventory assets from a contraction in price?
If this were the case, then the dealers could continue to sell into a declining market, and provide a timely delivery, as well maintain a operational profit.
First Friday Of May: Go Away Or Stay And Play? [View article]
As a longer term trader, I really like you long term calls, as I for one recognize the difficulty of calling these, because the further out you go in time, projecting price movement becomes more difficult.
I have to congratulate you for your accuracy... You called the March 2009 market upward reversal almost to the day, and the AAPL reversal to THE day. Only one who has been a student of the economy and the markets over a period of time could have done this, and so many other accurate calls. I'm sure it was difficult and consistent work, but it did pay off... thanks from one who benefited big time !