Seeking Alpha

Vercin Getarix

Vercin Getarix
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Vercin Getarix's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Carnival - This Ship Has Sailed, The Good News Has Already Been Priced In [View article]
    Buy it now and I bet you will make 12% on your money within the next 12 months.
    Mar 30, 2015. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NCL Gets Bid On Weaker Euro [View article]
    Thanks for the compliment. Although I have a historical and operational understanding of all the major lines, I would not write an article on cruise lines because of the accuracy required. For example, in just talking about currency and before I could both generalize and be specific I would have to spend the time to research just exactly what percentage of their cruises are paid for in Euros or other foreign currency.
    Without doing much work I can easily say CCL has more foreign divisions and therefore collects more in foreign currency. Being lazy I can say that in general foreign currencies have lost about 12 to 17 percent of their value against the dollar. I now realize that although I have had many conversations with big shots from the cruise lines, I never asked any of them exactly how they determine the prices in Euros, Pounds, Yen,Canadian dollar or what have you. And also if there is a currency change can they adjust the cruise prices. Often customers book a cruise in advance - maybe anywhere from a year to a few days -- and give a deposit. Final payments are generally not required until a couple of months in advance of sailing. CCL gets, for example, a 1000 Euros for a Costa cruise, puts into the European bank and then wants to convert it to US dollars. Oh no! It is now worth 16% less than planned. They, in effect, just sold a cruise at cost or even below cost.
    And that is why I expect to hear at the next earning reports from all 3 lines, CCL, RCL and NCL that the cost of currency conversion hurt earnings. And, maybe by a lot.
    Mar 10, 2015. 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NCL Gets Bid On Weaker Euro [View article]
    For starters, sir, you don't call them "boats" but you should call them "ships."
    Secondly, Norwegian is not, and was not "industry's second-leading player ,... "
    It was and still is a distant third. CCL being 1st and RCL 2nd. However, if you are old enough to remember back to the 1970s, they were 1st and you might say owned the Caribbean. However, Ted Arison of CCL took his profits and built more ships when RCL and NCL profits went to the mostly European owners. I remember Arison claiming that they made enough money in one year to buy 4 new ships for cash. NCL went through a long period of financial difficulty and barely limped along while having a mediocre reputation with the cruising public and the travel agent community. Carnival strongly considered buying them but a Malaysian gambling company called Genting bought into them and infused some cash and finally NCL was able to buy brand new ships. Their reputation has improved.
    Now another idea that you have I feel is wrong. The cheap Euro will not help cruise lines. American cruisers pay for the majority of the European cruises in USD currency before the even take the cruise. The cheap Euro is of minor significance to them and only comes into play if they get off the ship and shop in the ports. Obviously that is not true for folks that fly to Europe and have hotels and food to buy once there. However for the cruises that the lines sell to Europeans there is the problem of converting Euros to dollars and that is where the lines will take a hit.
    Lastly, I am not so sure that Frank Del Rio is the man for such a big operation. He had a checkered past when president of Renaissance cruises - a line that went broke.
    Mar 7, 2015. 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barra Low-Balling GM Prospects For 2015 [View article]
    " the Alabama coach worrying to death about Vanderbilt."
    I liked that line. You really know how to explain things
    Jan 10, 2015. 04:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New CEO appointed at Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings [View news story]
    Didn't Renaissance Cruises go broke under his leadership?
    Jan 9, 2015. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carnival May Not Offer The Smoothest Ride To The Bank [View article]
    WONDERLAND, I can see how you came to your conclusion but as someone who has closely followed the cruise lines since the 1960s, what you report is not that unusual. I remember the days. say in 1980, where you could walk up to the docks on the day of sailing and get a cabin. Not now. The lines have learned how to fill up the ships even if it takes half price offers months in advance. They have learned how to use discount travel agencies. How to use email and other forms of mail and advertizing. I get these offers too from almost all the lines except Regent and Silverseas. There logic is this; an empty cabin produces no revenue at all. I can't rememmber off hand, you can look it up, but a healthy percentage of profit comes from what they call "on board spending;" casinos, bars, gift shops, land excursions, spas, etc. Also, notice that CCL says they have 104% occupancy. A good friend of mine works for them at the docks in Miami and swears to me all the Carnival ships sail full. As an experiment call the lines you mention a 4 or 5 days before sailing and tell us what they say; they just might say, "
    Sorry, ship is sold out."
    Dec 17, 2014. 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheniere: Why I Will Not Invest Now [View article]
    This stock is definitely for patient long term investors.
    Nov 18, 2014. 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carnival forms new JV in China with local partner [View news story]
    This is bad news for European ship builders. It will be a case of China today and the world tomorrow. A close relative of mine who is an expert in Maritime Shipping told me that their bulk carriers and oil tankers are the equal to any made in the world and container ships are a close second.
    It will take them some time to build up a network of local vendors to supply things like cabins,furniture, plumbing equipment and the many 1000s of other items. Nothing made anywhere is safe from the tendency of the Chinese to copy it.
    "You need a 1000 porcelain toilets for the ship? Just buy one over in American Home Depot and send it over here and we will copy it exactly for 1/3 the price. Remember, we Chinese invented porcelain." Well, that is a little simplification but you get the idea.
    Oct 16, 2014. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Acquisition [View article]
    bsorge--- do you mean by "disparity" that the difference in quality between NCL and Oceania and Regent would not lead NCL passenger to move up? If so, I agree. Big difference in price on NCL of about $100 a day to $200 to $300 a day on the up scale two lines. CCL is able to move CCL psgrs up to Princess for maybe only a 20% premium. But a CCL psger doesn't jump up to premium Cunard very often.
    As for Del Rio, I never liked him. He did a poor job of running Rennaisance before it went broke. However, he seems good at finding the money men and putting a cruise line together. And, I consider Apollo a hedge fund that is unqualified to add much to the running of a cruise line however good they are at making money for themselves.
    On a different note, It is hard for me to believe that 30 years ago NCL owned the Caribbean and let CCL and RCL dominate it.
    Sep 14, 2014. 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: Bullish Or Bearish? [View article]
    I listened to the this twenty something kid ramble on with only the slightess knowledge of SIRI, Another kid that wants free music pounding in his ears all day. I would guess all his peers do the same thing. He seems to be aware there is other content on SIRI but none of it interests him. Then he calls Howard Sten a disc jockey! Am I supposed to take financial advice from him?
    Jun 6, 2014. 02:08 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Norwegian Cruise Line Has The Best Fleet In The Industry [View article]
    I can remember the days when NCL owned the Caribbean with their Starward, Southward, etc, and RCL was the upstart who claimed to have the best ships and service (but the smallest cabins). What I believed happened is that like the commercial maritime history their owners had, the profits made where put into the owners pockets. Gradually, both of these lines fell behind on equipment, food and service. Then upstart Ted Arison started Carnival and all his profits went back into the company. Yes, CCL was the Walmart of those days. They called their ships the "Fun ships' and they did give the passenegers more fun than the staid NCL or RCL. I can remember a CCL cruise in1979 with my family and my saying, "I am not going to any stupid pillow fight." And yet, there I was laughing my butt off watching it.
    Gradually the laminate was replaced by real wood. RCL was famous for having fake materials - but not now.
    Travel agents where wooed by CCL and the agents responded by filling the fun ships. NCL did not iimprove and in fact degeneraterd and profits declined to the point they almost went bankrupt - I think I remember their stock sliding down to $1. Service, upkeep, food and attidude declined. I remember seeing rugs on the SS Norway that should have been throw away as being worn out. I remember hearing a woman warn her kids not to touch the banisters since they were dirty. I knew many of the middle management and they were not very happy. Carnival tried to buy the line but it ended up being sold to a Malaysian gambling corporation. Things then started to iimprove since Genting put some money into the line and started to build new ships. I am not saying the cruise line stunk but it was a distant thrid behind RCL and CCL.
    So, what about now? Most things have improved under new upper management and with more money put into the line. Morale has improved. Everything has improved. But, IMO, it still is not as tightly run as it should be. Now it is a close third behind RCL and CCL. I would buy CCL or RCL before NCLH.
    May 10, 2014. 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM A Buy Right Now With Or Without The Issuance Of A Dividend? [View article]
    Let's get this straight, they never said they will pay dividends to the stockholders; only to the holding company. The holding company can and will buy back stock.
    May 8, 2014. 12:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Set To Resume Share Buybacks [View article]
    Crunching, your comment, " “Luck is the residue of design.” So, to paraphrase, for corporate executives, the "share price will be the residue of execution - at least over the long haul." is the very wise. We don't get much wisom here.
    Apr 17, 2014. 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Vote 'NO' On Liberty's $3.68 Offer [View article]
    Ralph Nader is still alive! Schwab alert said this this mornng;
    "but shareholder Ralph Nader called the proposal "ludicrous," adding that "I am sure that I along with other shareholders in Sirius XM will be interested in a legal challenge to John Malone's company for lowballing Sirius XM's shareholder value."
    Jan 6, 2014. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM CEO Sees A Real Opportunity Internationally [View article]
    Question to users; have any of you guys driven down into Mexico while listening to Sirius/XM? and if so, how far down did you get reception? Does it reach Monterey? or even Mexico City? TIA
    Sep 29, 2013. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment