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oliversk

oliversk
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  • Novatel Wireless: A Fundamentally Flawed Business Plan [View article]
    ""It's like a newspaper having a huge headline on the front page claiming a falsehood or partial truth -- and then that newspaper "running a correction" the next day in a tiny paragraph on page 17, buried on the inside of the newspaper.""

    It's part of their manipulative tactics.

    There are many small details that don't add up. Also they completely ignore any of the positives and how this company really has carved out a niche where they can reach a 40% profit margin. Any business that even dares to make such claims has a unique market position in a niche that you can't simply enter without a many years of RnD. Yes, sure Intel and the likes are all competitors but in completely different market segments, which TSS completely ignored.

    Anyway as I stated before, TSS article is more harmful to investors than it is helpful and should not have been published in the first place because it was a clear short attack.
    Feb 16, 2015. 08:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Novatel Wireless: A Fundamentally Flawed Business Plan [View article]
    This is what I found out about short sale restrictions:
    http://1.usa.gov/1s9Oa1p

    Apparently short sale restrictions have been around since 2010 and it is one of the mechanisms trying to offset the damage done by shorts. Well, it's 2015 now, the SEC may want to consider decreasing that to 7% in one day and extend the number of days because clearly 2 days is not sufficient. Shorts will only lose interest if the number of days between restrictions is 7-10 days.

    That would make short-selling a lot less enticing and prevent manipulative attacks by The Street Sweeper and the likes.
    Feb 11, 2015. 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Novatel Wireless: A Fundamentally Flawed Business Plan [View article]
    I share your concerns and you're right it is probably naive to believe that we can do anything about manipulative short attacks. In the beginning and early 1900's when the stock market was still unregulated it was probably way worse than this, but the stock market is supposedly a 'regulated' market now.

    I am not all that familiar with short-selling, so I will need to dig a little into short-selling restrictions that are now being displayed in my account and how this works.

    The fact remains, this stock was manipulated and wouldn't have dropped below 5 if it wasn't for this inaccurate article.

    Long-term investors shouldn't care about daily fluctuations, but I agree it's very annoying to see how easily people manipulate companies and share prices abusing media outlets and Google News. Obviously this only works on small caps and penny stocks, so they could simply forbid shorting of any company below a 1 billion market cap and get rid of this problem. I am probably overseeing some other positive aspects of short-selling since I am obviously biased myself, but still think they should review the current regulatory framework.
    Feb 10, 2015. 01:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Novatel Wireless: A Fundamentally Flawed Business Plan [View article]
    Going short on a company is morally so uncool, because a share price for example has real consequences:

    - Below 5 mark certain funds are not allowed to buy
    - Below 5 mark certain refinancing may be more difficult to obtain
    - etc

    Shorting a company can destroy a company that would have been fine if it wasn't for shorts. Shorts can literally bankrupt a company. In my opinion short-selling should be forbidden, it only destroys value. Yes, shorts can prevent hype and overblown expectation but they destroy more companies than necessary and even if just 1 company went bankrupt due to shorts that's 1 too many.

    I am going to blacklist The Street Sweeper on my network
    Feb 10, 2015. 12:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Novatel -6.3% after critical StreetSweeper column [View news story]
    Someone notify the SEC of this manipulation. It is ridiculous and it was way too obvious how they abused SeekingAlpha which is a Google News approved site. They have many contradictory statements on their site trying to confuse gullible investors. Very uncool of them and ethically on the black site - they should be investigated for this. Did they really think they would get away with this?
    Feb 10, 2015. 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Novatel Wireless: A Fundamentally Flawed Business Plan [View article]
    The Street Sweeper also has contradictory statements on its own page, they state that their code of conducts prevents them from going short on companies they cover, yet they state in the article they are short. Same in this SeekingAlpha article. At the top they don't disclose but at the bottom they do.

    I believe they have initiated the short position at 5.50 - 5.70 and covered it at the low today. Very nice manipulative tricks. I could do the same with my finance websites, but they would investigate me immediately. How do they get away with it?

    The stock price matters (refinancing, public image, etc). Short-term volatility is to be expected and I am not surprised that it went down due to technicals and a little too much hype, but the manipulation in this case was very obvious.
    Feb 10, 2015. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Novatel Wireless: A Fundamentally Flawed Business Plan [View article]
    Contradictory statements:

    Below the article ==> Important Disclosure: The owners of TheStreetSweeper hold a short position in MIFI a

    Above the article ==> Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)

    This is manipulation at its finest. Street Sweeper should not be allowed to publish manipulative articles
    Feb 10, 2015. 09:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Novatel Wireless: A Fundamentally Flawed Business Plan [View article]
    The author of this article is short on MIFI without disclosing it. In the article on the page it was disclosed that a short position was initiated, hence this is an attempt to cash in on short-term volatility that is to be expected on such a small cap.

    If Novatel Wireless managed to increase revenue from IoT to $20m-25 per quarter we are already talking about $80-$100m in revenue from M2M products. While it its a competitive niche, there are few who actually produce chips and can deliver businesses a complete range of IoT services. The author fails to disclose how Novatel has managed to get two established investors onboard that hold over 5% of MIFI. The author also fails to realize that the CEO is someone who has strong industry connections and understands the communication device industry deeply. A good CEO is half the company and this is no small fish.

    Due to short-selling attempts that are not disclosed by SeekingAlpha MIFI is tanking, which is clear manipulation and should be inspected by the SEC.

    I am not happy with SeekingAlpha allowing such clear manipulation. Please remove this article.
    Feb 10, 2015. 09:24 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Steel Earnings Preview: 2015 Estimates Coming Down Rapidly [View article]
    Good call. After I saw that AK reported no guidance but strong Q4 results I also increased my position again, however I believe this will be a short bounce so I may sell soonish. Long-term we are still facing issues here. Market looked too much at oil and GDP and not at the restructuring efforts, which were not priced in by the market, so it will go up now. Once that is reflected by the price and global markets go down again after the recent surge, X will also go down again, so it's really a question how long you can hold this.
    Jan 28, 2015. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Steel Earnings Preview: 2015 Estimates Coming Down Rapidly [View article]
    After looking at all the facts again (ArcelorMittal: global GDP forecast lowered for 2015) and the last earnings report, I have decided to decrease my position by 25% which I am now comfortable holding for at least 24 months. Should they really guide poorly for 2015 and 2014 was a loss we might go down more although much is priced in, but if the opposite happens I still hold enough to have some exposure.

    There are many call options, shorts decreased and the cost-cutting operations were well underway going into 2014. So, I am still bullish, but I believe it's best not to gamble here.

    If you have no position in X, it is probably best to wait for this call, there are too many unknowns at this point.

    Next, I will probably stick to tech companies which I am more familiar with or commodities that are easier for me to evaluate based on inflation and inflation expectations such as silver or gold. Steel really seems like a gamble to me now, there are so many factors that you really need to be an insider to properly evaluate the industry, which I am not. Buffet always says to invest into companies that you 'understand'. Lesson learnt, time to move on for me. Steel market insiders probably have it easier to evaluate the company, but then again, if you know too much you may make things more complicated than they are. All comes down to experience really.
    Jan 26, 2015. 02:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Steel Earnings Preview: 2015 Estimates Coming Down Rapidly [View article]
    The valuation does not seem ridiculous, it is ridiculous.

    1) Many Chinese mills closed in 2014 and they are now importing more than ever
    2) US is slightly protected from cheap Korean steel at the moment
    3) Strong US domestic market
    4) EU recovering and QE, resulting in increased spending on infrastructure
    5) And most important: Tubular is only about 15% of the revenues (Flat-rolled is over 70%)
    6) Cost-cutting underway and they were going to shut down the mills anyway, it was possibly not even a result of low oil prices (just a disguise?)

    The negatives are priced in, but none of the positives. X lost 50% and went from 6bn to 3bn market cap on revenues of 4bn.

    Even if it drops below 20 for a while (there is good support at 20 as well) this might go back to 30 eventually.

    Sources:
    http://bit.ly/1Bs3Sfb

    I wouldn't be surprised to see this hit either 15 or 30 in no time either, depending on how the market reacts.

    There are probably better opportunities out there, but if you can hold for 1-2 years, this should be worth it, don't you think?


    Jan 26, 2015. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft (MSFT) has apparently been dreaming big lately. A day after the WSJ reported the software giant held M&A talks with Nokia, it reports Microsoft recently explored creating an e-commerce marketplace that would challenge eBay (EBAY) and Amazon (AMZN). A Microsoft spokeswoman admits the existence of an e-commerce initiative, codenamed Brazil, but adds the company has tabled its plans. Sources claim Microsoft was actually thinking of "subsidizing the price of goods" on its marketplace via ad dollars, presumably to deal with the chicken-and-egg problem any such service would have. [View news story]
    Sorry, but I'm 100% bullish on MSFT. Microsoft is the new APPL! Ballmer's strategy is awesome, everyone who's followed the company can see that they are on the move - this is going to a market cap beyond 300 quickly. Yes, there are risks but I see more upside

    1) Outlook gaining market share
    2) Lumia catching up in key markets like the US and EU
    3) Office 365 brings in steady cash - I'm very fond of their new products myself and embraced both 8 and Office
    4) Windows 8.1 will accelerate Win8 growth
    5) 4 will boost tablet sales
    6) MSFT opening stores in many locations => increased competition for APPL
    7) MSFT actively trying to improve products and doing so in bold ways: Read here for a recap http://bit.ly/172M5Mw

    Also, keep in mind that SNE might not win this console war and MSFT will be the winner again (yes, early indicators are poor, but they are actively responding to customer complaints this time)

    All in all, their strategy is bold and risky but that's exactly why I think it will work, they were passive for too long and this is a break-out attempt. An attempt to compete with Google, Amazon and Apple toe-to-toe
    Jun 23, 2013. 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivendi Group: Ugly But Undervalued [View article]
    Looks like even your aggresive case for Maroc Telecom was too low.

    I'm surprised the stock didn't rise more today, has potential to go over 20 EUR shortly
    Apr 24, 2013. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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