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  • Herbalife to kick off image-building ad campaign [View news story]
    Maybe not the right forum/time, but a question to the Americans: Does anyone have an idea of the compensation from KPMG for the re-audit? To cover the costs for PWC audit feels likely, but what about "for damages" or similar, could HLF really get a big load of compensation or not?
    Mar 24, 2015. 08:52 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Mexican Tax Problem - $100M USD Plus [View instapost]
    Perhaps because this type of tax claims from emerging market authorities are rampant and existant for hundreds of US companies, including many of the large public ones.

    still very interesting.
    Nov 11, 2014. 04:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Or Nu Skin: Which Controversial Company Posted Stronger Quarterly Results? [View article]
    NUS drugged PY quarter with a gigantic LTO that was impossible to repeat, plus their distributors were stuck with too much inventory so it was not such a splendid idea after all, which management of course realise. They settled a tiny fine with Chinese authorities and have no regulatory problems there going forward.

    HLF results were weak, especially on the volume points (which should not be so weak as sales, because sales in USD are affected by FX), but are also living up to tough comps against a very strong 2013. The Venezuelan write-down is a one-off and a bloody but necessary one. Strong growth of active leaders is a good forward looking sign in direct sales. For the share to trade down 30%+ on that report on back of 2015 outlook is maybe proper, but I would not be surprised if we get back to the nice tradition of beating expectations again going forward.
    Meanwhile we have the upcoming FTC announcement as a driver, support from new product re-launches (skin care) and upside rather than downside in FX in 2015.

    Just sayin'
    Nov 10, 2014. 08:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife settles class-action suit launched by distributor [View news story]
    The only winner here is Bostick and her 3 companions. The U.S. judicial system is so strange. Didn't Red bull recently settle some class-action, because of their marketing and had to pay huge fines. Ridiculous. Anyhow, as yteeld points out, it is a cost of doing business in the US
    Nov 1, 2014. 01:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Record Q3 Earnings Help Propel Herbalife's Stock Higher? [View article]
    Gotta love this
    Oct 22, 2014. 06:51 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Elephant In The Room: Why The FTC Is Taking So Long To Investigate Herbalife [View article]
    I mean in Q3 there is the lowest unemployment in US for the past five years. From five years experience and pounding a lot of data - direct sales and MLMers do well when unemployment is high and people seek extra incomes.
    Oct 20, 2014. 04:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Elephant In The Room: Why The FTC Is Taking So Long To Investigate Herbalife [View article]
    @Submarine, I agree, would feel more relevant to discuss Q3. I think of these items

    - We have strong USD, weak EM currencies so there will be a currency hit.
    - Venezuela mark-down most likely have to take place, i have to agree with hackman here.
    -The website thing in the US will have minimal impact, now and in the future. We have this in our business too but it brings a tiny portion of sales and new clients. This is not a big driver behind direct sales (yet at least).
    -Momentum in US where everyone in this industry are still amazed they can do so well in their home market. Record low unemployment in US in the past 5 years = not good for direct sales.
    - Crisis growing in countries like Russia = good for direct sales
    -The problems in Asia-Pacific, have they been fixed or not or are sales still falling there (Malaysia?)
    - Expansions, any new markets being introduced?
    - Cost control, bonuses, campaigns and an eye on those capex, especially on that factory in China. Going according to plan? Factory in US all ok?
    - Sales growth China, Mexico still amazingly high? Any Nuskin reps moving to HLF in China?
    - share count down, EPS up

    still, as long as valuation is ridicoulsly low due to FTC and Hackman overhang, it is a good investment up 60-70 USD to my mind.
    Oct 17, 2014. 08:21 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Elephant In The Room: Why The FTC Is Taking So Long To Investigate Herbalife [View article]
    @Mikeproc. The thing is that many of the ones you refer too have been going on for several years. They will continue, don't worry. Few seem to have a normal day-job given how much time they spend writing articles and commenting.
    Oct 15, 2014. 06:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Elephant In The Room: Why The FTC Is Taking So Long To Investigate Herbalife [View article]
    Wasn't the investigation or Pre-Paid legal around 3 years? (and closed without any action). I also agree 7months is actually not a very long time, over a summer when many are out of office etc.

    This is perhaps insightful and honest in many ways shorts have not presented their case so far, but here it comes down to America being a place for business and opportunity or a place for regulation and limitation. So far, I believe that your opinion fits better in heavily socialistic states rather than the capitalistic United states of America.

    Interesting that you do not bring up any discussion on what happened in Belgium. You have to be balanced to be believed.
    Oct 14, 2014. 09:05 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: More Smoke And Mirrors - Regulating Online Sales [View article]
    I just have to comment on the so called investigation from FBI. The only source is a rumour spread by one journalist working at a scandalistic newspaper in New York. Everybody just quotes this doubtful source. There may very well not even be any FBI investigation. The SEC "investigation" was about insiders working on the short side. The NY AGs alleged "investigation" is also a rumour from NY Post, no other source has been able to bring any light to that allegation. There was one AG in the US (dont remember the state) who confirmed they were doing something. Nothing has come out for 3 months. Another AG who had looked at it and closed "investigation".

    There are no "investigations" going on apart from the confirmed FTC one.

    How can intellectual (shorts) take NY Post as some kind of reliable "source"? Makes no sense.

    On the other hand, it is clear right now that nobody wants to buy HLF so in this sense the shorts have the upper hand at the moment.
    Oct 14, 2014. 07:26 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Valuation Of Avon Products [View article]
    It's been going on for more than 18months (Magnit's cosmetic roll-out), but sure, it is a threat to the direct sellers since price points are similar and they have a good network.
    Oct 14, 2014. 02:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Valuation Of Avon Products [View article]
    Ok, interesting notes, i just like the space too.

    AVP indeed is having a tough time in South America, interesting enough the same for Natura (mainly Brazil) who have had a few weaker quarters, albeit coming from very high market share level. AVP could fix their issues or they could be in terminal decline there, hard to say. North America seems almost lost.

    In Russia you see very little introductions of new players at the moment to be frank (everybody stays away). And premium and mid-segment retailers dont want to mark down along with rouble falling and consumers move down in value chain- to the direct sellers who offer easier price points if the consumer register as a distributor. So I think AVP is doing quite well actually this quarter in local currency but as mentioned, with a big US cost base, it does not help. Long-term; retail has finished expanding, new direct sellers can always come ("easily") but Avp is one heck of a brand in Russia. It takes a long time to build a similar brand
    Oct 8, 2014. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Valuation Of Avon Products [View article]
    Ltc, what is your thought on the loss of the CFO? No big deal or it matters? I find it very hard to see that the loss of our CFO would really mean anything for the business (apart for some currency hedging perhaps)

    do you have any thoughts on other direct sellers? i have not seen you on the endless HLF articles/comment boards
    Oct 7, 2014. 01:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Appoints Pamela Jones Harbour as Senior Vice President, Global Member Compliance and Privacy [View article]
    Sounds like a solid recruitment
    Oct 6, 2014. 07:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: 34 Years In Business And Plenty More To Go [View instapost]
    Personally I'm convinced that Ackman is in the clear from that perspective - just like "over-promising" HLF distributors are legally in the clear as well.

    Morally, one might have different views of justice but I do not see any court cases this way.

    The only justice will come if Ackman is squeezed and has to buy the 600MUSD in shares he has left (or who knows how much he has left now, if any, maybe only put options) from Icahn.
    Sep 16, 2014. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment