Timo57's Comments

Earnings Preview: Adobe Systems Reports Q3 Earnings On September 19

Sun, 16 Sep 2012 22:55:15 -0400

I am a first time reader of your articles and wanted to say thanks Vytautus for this thorough and unbiased assessment of Adobe's standing heading into their earnings report this week. Regardless of one's stance be it bullish or bearish, you provided a solid report with lots of information to determine what action if any, one might want to take for a pre-earnings play, or long term investment choice.
Thanks, I'd love to see more articles like this given the customary- "hyper-opinionated jabber" that fills the print, Internet, and TV with a bunch of what I would call "wild guesses" guised as expert analysis. Laying out the facts as you did is helpful and really refreshing.
Timo

Gold Prices Will Not Go Up Soon: This Is Why

Thu, 06 Sep 2012 03:16:56 -0400

Yes Robert I actually do find a difference between the parties, but I also agree with some of your assertions that the parties have this desire for power and will stop at nothing to obtain it, which I believe is a comment you would agree with. For me, the difference however is their public stand on all civil rights issues and at least the appearance of inclusivity in the Democratic party vs. the Republicans who are anti-gay, anti-immigrant to an extreme, and really don't like anyone who needs government when tragedy strikes etc. and a person is unable to care for themselves, etc.
There are differences. There are similarities for sure too. It depends on the lens you are looking through and how personally you feel attacked by certain stances that are debated openly and included in the party platforms. I also fear this "take our country back" theme that is in the election dialogue on the Romney side. Take it back from who? People that are of a different mindset than the Republican rednecks that live in the red states where by the way, more $ are spent per person by Feds than more populous states (except TX, of course). Besides those sorts of positions that set the tone for the nation, and affect the right to equality for all, something they (R-party) wants us to believe they believe in but that is so disingenuous. For instance, for years a bill is introduced to include gays/lesbians in the current comprehensive anti-discrimination federal law which includes, "race, sex, marital stays, ethnic origin, religious viewpoints, etc.". However the Republicans have shot this down like it something so controversial that there would be a group included in a law for simple protections from discrimination in "work and housing". That's it and only 16/50 states have such laws. That's just one example. Sorry but the GOP is really just a bunch of good ol' boys, mostly white who long for the days when we all pretended how wonderful things were (which is a fantasy IMO). But oh we yearn for Mayberry, and Aunt Bee. Romney will bring us back to where we once were before this awful Obama destroyed our entire nation all by himself in 3 years! Sorry, but that is just idiot speak. So in reality, I could care less about some of the valid points you made about there not being a difference and will join your camp when there really is liberty and justice for ALL. The most basic of concepts that this country was built on that the "constitution loving tea party" forgets. They forget a lot come to think of it.

Apple: Too Far Too Fast, Again

Fri, 31 Aug 2012 03:50:45 -0400

Thx RS, looking forward to your next one. Try Gold, it brings out some real kooks too!

Remedial Math For Business Reporters Covering Salesforce.com

Fri, 31 Aug 2012 03:44:49 -0400

But AMZN is profitable, notwithstanding the razor thin margins and it isn't a bookkeeping loophole that creates their profits. The actually have a P/E! (very high one at that but that is for another discussion!)
But your comments re: CRM are interesting and sound. The plausibility of CSCO buying them would be very interesting and on the surface at least, very good joint venture. CRM is a real player in the cloud computing world, and that world is growing along with the competition.

Gold Prices Will Not Go Up Soon: This Is Why

Wed, 29 Aug 2012 01:41:38 -0400

I replied to your comment below but it doesn't seem to follow in a recognizable thread but if you are interested or curious, it's one of a list of replies I made to several comments from various contributors.
To John and all here I would like to apologize. Not for what I believe, but for allowing myself to be baited and then totally get worked up on politics that are not the focus of what is a very interesting discussion.
Of course, politics are relevant to this and most topics related to investing and life in general, IMO. But I did not want to become so involved in debate that was doomed to go nowhere from the beginning.
Again, my apologies to the community here at SA reading this thread.
Timo

Gold Prices Will Not Go Up Soon: This Is Why

Tue, 28 Aug 2012 02:41:06 -0400

He saved auto industry and biggest chunk of stimulus money was to extend unemployment and maintain healthcare for the poor. What would economy have done without those provisions? My dear Mom ran dry of money after years of our family paying up to 10K/month and I was very thankful Medicaid was an option when it came down to almost $0 in bank accounts

Gold Prices Will Not Go Up Soon: This Is Why

Tue, 28 Aug 2012 02:32:30 -0400

I get your point and am slowly coming to the same conclusion sadly. But I give the Dems some serious points for at least their stance on civil rights and equality. The Republicans are in the stone age in that area that is more important than economy and way more personal. So there are a lot of similarities but when you personally feel attacked by one party and not the other, it tends to have a big impact on your voting passion.

Gold Prices Will Not Go Up Soon: This Is Why

Tue, 28 Aug 2012 02:27:28 -0400

Off budget too BTW, John, whatever that meant. Oh yeah, bypass congressional approval somehow.

Gold Prices Will Not Go Up Soon: This Is Why

Tue, 28 Aug 2012 02:24:28 -0400

Done! I could go on for much longer. But it seems we are all brainwashed with about a 50/50 split based on where you get news and if you listen to talk radio (not NPR either if you get my drift)

Gold Prices Will Not Go Up Soon: This Is Why

Tue, 28 Aug 2012 02:22:12 -0400

All true but wrong president

Gold Prices Will Not Go Up Soon: This Is Why

Tue, 28 Aug 2012 02:19:33 -0400

And I would assert that your blinders are bigger than mine. Budget busting Medicare Part D aside, does lying about WMD's to start a war against a country that had not threatened us and was not even connected to 9/11 bother you at all?
I'll take Obama's short-comings anyday over more of that. I don't agree with everything Obama does and I didn't want to end up disliking W, as I am an American first, but your inclination to insult me due to disagreement on fundamental issues is exactly why DC is so dysfunctional and Obama can't even discuss areas of agreement to move policy forward due to a few tantrum prone tea partiers who are so rigid they would rather country fail than not get their way. I'm not trying to convince you because you are correct in implying we see the same thing and draw different conclusions. Mine just happen to be based on facts.

Remedial Math For Business Reporters Covering Salesforce.com

Mon, 27 Aug 2012 21:13:01 -0400

Great links, thx. Love the chart with analysis for each move :-)

Apple: Too Far Too Fast, Again

Mon, 27 Aug 2012 20:54:12 -0400

Wow! What a line of discussion RS. That is something you should take pride in, regardless if 80% seem to disagree. Your points about taking profits are simply an example of managing your winners as well as your losers and I see no controversy there.
I treat AAPL like all holdings, it's just adding some 00's to the calculations.
But for now, I love the options and can ride this up or down until I finally get hammered, which isn't likely using risk defined strategies. Haven't read much about option advantages with lower risk, and high reward often quickly. I don't have to get the direction right, use neutral, bearish, or bullish strategies at the same time Even the novice trader (myself, less than a year since first option trade ever) can do well with easy, high probability AAPL option strategies, All time decaying positions. I have what is basically an AAPL only options portfolio in my options only account where I have a steady inventory of positions that can be adjusted with ease due to the premium that exists in far OTM strikes. So far it's gone well. There may be other stocks where this is possible but I'm comfortable with AAPL and it's gyrations up and down.
And I don't have to shell out $700ish/share for 50/50 odds which I give to all long positions and yes, I realize AAPL is far from typical. In fact, I would be long the stock were it not feasible for my pirtfolio size and its hard to justify in my case being used to quick, healthy option profits
BTW, I'm a HUGE fan and consumer of their products too (iMac, PowerBook, iPad, iPhone 3GS soon to be iPhone 5, airport extreme, and so on.
Thanks to everyone who made thoughtful contributions to this discussion which were vast majority.
AAPL really stirs passion in folks which is one key to success. And as a gentleman pointed out above, they run their business using sound models with everything firing on all cylinders for now and likely for a while into the next years. IMO.
TIMO

Apple: Too Far Too Fast, Again

Mon, 27 Aug 2012 20:09:55 -0400

OUCH!

Better Check The Facts When Marc Benioff Claims Something

Mon, 27 Aug 2012 19:45:01 -0400

Thanks for another revealing article regarding CRM and it's true valuation. And the points re: MSFT and AAPL are well taken. As well as the comment re AMZN-all making money, unlike CRM.
Your take on Cramer's love affair with CEO is spot on and as a "little guy" Cramer professes to be watching out for, he should mention the short sales he holds in the "non-charitable" account (being flippant vs. accusing him of wrongdoing, for the record).
Surely the fact that CRM loses money each quarter will eventually add up (or subtract down) in those that truly believe in CRM w/o any hidden agendas or conflicts of interest.
Are there any investors still long that meet those criteria?
Appreciate your analysis, and the comments as well.
I will add that I have a great wide Iron Condor position Sept exp that I'm buying back tomorrow for 60% profit that i placed day of earnings less than a week ago, thanks to CRM's equally overvalued options!

Timo

Remedial Math For Business Reporters Covering Salesforce.com

Mon, 27 Aug 2012 19:24:16 -0400

I too, really enjoyed and benefited from this discussion (an area of weakness for me-making sense of the balance sheets of a company w/o guidance such as yours).
This question may reflect my naïveté on such matters, but isn't the "value" of this company and others like it, based on projected growth with huge profitability expectations?
Cramer loves CRM (another reason for doubt, IMO) and is completely seduced by the CEO when he makes an appearance. It borders on sleazy in fact. Cramer wants for us "retail investors/little guys" (the ones he's so protective of), to focus on is the PEG, which assumes something yet to be demonstrated even if one feels the business is growing by some real measure today (which can and is argued by some "independent" experts) but in no way is this "growth" even close to PEG estimates, usually quoted as anywhere from 1-2!
Anyone please feel free to point out any flaws in what I've stated, as this is still a confusing issue to me.
Especially with these super "growth" companies with negative "earnings" in a contracting world economy. How can they continue posting higher share prices seems like voodoo economics and someone is getting completely mislead i.e scr**ed, and as you pointed out, the management is doing great, so I wonder who it might be?

Thanks for an excellent presentation.

Timo

Apple: Too Far Too Fast, Again

Sun, 26 Aug 2012 00:16:16 -0400

Interesting exchange between Ronin and writer RS, which I found more to agree with on both sides of discussion than To disagree.
Yes, taking some profits off the table is rarely a "bad" move if they are sizable enough to justify or just make one more comfortable having full awareness of not only potential further gains, but I would argue likely future gains. But of course, there are risks.
I'm a little concerned that AAPL is squeezing it's margins for sake of "upgrades" aimed at very specific niches i.e. Costs of retina display glass exceeding expected pre-production estimates. AAPL decided not to pass added cost on to consumer. Have either heard this re: new iPad? Only one example of several related to their various suppliers that are many in number, diverse and having issues of their own -complying with AAPL's demands re timeframes and/or quality.
But AAPL self-imposes high expectations and is perceived to deliver. But at a cost, which may or may not be a trend as competition stiffens and world economy slows further.
Having said that, not only is the highly anticipated iPad mini coming soon also likely to be another blockbuster, there is also the new iPhone release with an upcoming "made for media" announcement expected to generate higher level of demand for this updated iphone5 which halready is expected to be biggest seller ever of their core product. The numbers are mind boggling even when you take into account the headwinds cited, AAPL's stock is poised for increases in the near term if not longer. The next earnings announcement will be very instructive, with some hints perhaps about Apple TV or other new product always a possibility, before, after or during even. (Apple TV is still a likely future product that isn't as far along as originally thought but also a potential game changer).
The China numbers are interesting, but more telling are just how big the market is worldwide with continued growth in all markets as to percentages of population who own smart phones and huge number that still don't but are highly likely to in the near future.
And with iPhone and all AAPL products, the oft heard response by one who purchased a competition product goes something along the lines of "hey, it's almost as good as your iPhone". LOL, TRUE, NO?
The bottom line for me is that the success of AAPL is no more a fad than the invention of the automobile or TV was in their time, having created products so revolutionary they have changed our lives forever. As with the others though, competition will eventually dilute this association, but for now I would bet on the upside (which I am-long AAPL).
Best of luck guys!
Timo

A Bearish Divergence As Australian Dollar Stalls While S&P 500 Jumps

Fri, 24 Aug 2012 04:23:35 -0400

Thanks for trying to explain this "phenomena". As for the 'carry trade" hypothesis with a less liquid currency, aren't there any number or others that are traded that meet that criteria?
I must say though, thatI really appreciate your last comment that a correlation isn't that important as long as you seem to have found a way to observe these 2 variables and it turns out to be a successful investment.
My guess(not a hypothesis for sure) is there is something more than that, and it isn't pure coincidental, but that requires more data, and as soon as it becomes "well known", the trade will be crowded and won't work anymore anyway! Good stuff and fun to follow. Thx!
Timo

My 3 Rules For Options

Fri, 24 Aug 2012 03:47:35 -0400

Thanks for the profound advice."Outcastsearcher"
And also, "with respect", I understand clearly your response but to belittle me for such a non-controversial post as mine was neither respectful or helpful.
Congratulations on your success. Humility trumps arrogance every time or at least in the long run. And is not to be mistaken for lack of confidence or level of intelligence. Good luck.

Gold Prices Will Not Go Up Soon: This Is Why

Fri, 24 Aug 2012 02:41:22 -0400

Vs. Bush/Cheney who didn't ask permission but just went ahead and did as they pleased. Leaving the messes for Obama to try and clean up. No small task indeed.

A Guide For Day-To-Day Trading In Apple's Stock

Wed, 22 Aug 2012 20:57:10 -0400

Gary, Thanks for reminder.

Gold Prices Will Not Go Up Soon: This Is Why

Wed, 22 Aug 2012 20:03:01 -0400

Bahamjbrr :
Then explain your expertise with us. I hear "experts" pontificating about what appear to be reasonably intelligent assessments re gold and it's price correlations, but your immature jab at my attempt to add something to a discussion added nothing at all, except your own negative energy And frankly, although shorter in length than my "contribution", I feel I would have been happier to have not read your comment at all.
As for living longer, I wish you the best, but you'll be both happier and live longer if you are less of a snarky smart ass, and more a person who can contribute something positive to things in life (or say nothing). You will live longer too.

Gold Prices Will Not Go Up Soon: This Is Why

Sun, 19 Aug 2012 14:19:43 -0400

:-) felt like getting my neck chopped off I guess! But I follow your articles and always feel I learn something valuable, whether I agree or disagree with your premise. (now we'll have to work on that Obama as socialist attitude-HAHA)

Gold Prices Will Not Go Up Soon: This Is Why

Sun, 19 Aug 2012 13:59:06 -0400

I don't profess to be an expert and if my remarks seem "sophomoric" or worse be kind. This is a discussion to exchange ideas, and for every idea about GLD or any other security there are just as many with completely opposite views.
But here are my observations in my short but intense couple of years of seriously managing my own accounts and becoming interested in the "gold phenomena".

Gold is unpredictable.
It used to not be so much, as it was an effective hedge against market downturns, an alternative currency and a fear fueled asset for doomsday scenarios. (not to mention a luxury product considered a sort of status symbol by some).
A highly in demand product, with Central Banks a big customer, various products made with the precious metal, both familiar and rather obscure things also.
There was a very real inverse correlation that was reliable (for the markets) and the huge run to the record levels could be explained by the market behavior and what we "knew" about golds behavior. Tthe height of what was a near economic meltdown, high market dis-trust and scandal as well as significant followers of the already mentioned "doomsday" predictions.
Also, demand was spurred by emerging markets with burgeoning middle class citizens using this "new" money to buy luxury gold items. India has been a big buyer of gold for a variety of reasons, some related to cultural issues. China too was buying with their new found wealth. Demand was high, and the gold miners ware only beginning to report the difficulties keeping up with demand, and furthermore, difficulty keeping up with prior extraction levels, as equipment and mining life spans were making it more difficult to maintain previous levels, just pushing the price higher without too many questions being asked by the ones on the wave up.

Then somewhere along the way and not too very long ago, something changed. There are lots of opinions as to what that something was, but gold began to re-couple with the equity markets and was no longer considered a "safe have". The relationship with currency markets too, was no longer a clean predictor. The emerging markets slowed down and demand there decreased. The Central Banks and governments in general have also decreased their gold purchases significantly.
And a bunch of other things I don't know or understand how they relate to gold happened too.
My point is this: after listening to gold "bugs" and professionals on both sides of the value question regarding gold, I don't think anyone knows really, about what affects gold prices over time. The charts are wrong consistently, there are not a lot of fundamental facts to analyze and other than supply and demand affects, nothing is certain when it comes to gold.
S&P Capitol IQ now is bullish but follows that comment with "this is not a recommendation, as gold is an unpredictable commodity and the predictions about price movement are based on conjecture, and that is not the basis of any investment that we would recommend". HUH?
That's my opinion I have reached about gold. It is not fixed in stone, but certainly fits with what I have observed as I have tried to make sense of the "gold question".
(I am long GLD but I prefer recycled plastics that form this resin that I swear, looks and feels just like it! cost $0.25 per ounce)

A Guide For Day-To-Day Trading In Apple's Stock

Sun, 19 Aug 2012 13:06:16 -0400

I will let you know how it works out, but I can turn it into a profitable vertical pretty easy, so I should be ok ;-)
Thanks for reply.
And mrmcmath gave a reason for this phenomena that really does make sense so thank MMM for that!
T.

Weighing The Week Ahead: The Lull Before The Storm?

Sun, 19 Aug 2012 12:00:58 -0400

Love it Jeff! Well done again! Watch out though as people can get really Pi**** OFF so hope you have thick skin. I have been literally compared to the lowest of the lowest just for stating my views which were on a site that everyone was "preaching to the choir" and almost each response was a parroting of the RNC playbook in the good cases, and just vulgar and nasty for the other responses to my words. Unreal!

Weighing The Week Ahead: The Lull Before The Storm?

Sun, 19 Aug 2012 11:09:19 -0400

Jeff,
I was late reading your weekly (a week late to be exact!) but I want to comment on a topic you raised in the article and more often as the presidential election nears.
I want to try to be politically neutral but full disclosure requires that I admit to being in the Obama camp than that of Mr. Romney.
With your focus on what we will be hearing and watching on the news, I have noticed that besides the usual mellow drama that swings in all directions daily on CNBC, there also appears to be a big shift to something akin to a political infomercial coordinated by/for/with the RNC and CNBC in favor of Mr. Romney. With few if any exceptions, insinuations and accusations made about President Obama are not even slightly veiled, Good news about the economy- no credit ever given to the administration's policies possibly working. And I have heard nary a neutral assessment of how Obama's re-election might harm more than what has been inflicted by our polarized Congress, with a small group on the right hell-bent on doing whatever they can to make sure Mr. Obama gets credit for nothing, even if it means bringing the country to its knees. What can he propose that they would go along with given that he has presented fiscal solutions that originally were from the same Republicans who now refuse to negotiate or even own the fact they supported the idea in the first place!
I repeated hear the danming "class warfare" accusation (right out of the RNC handbook and repeated continuously by CNBC, especially, Maria B) which was never presented as such by the POTUS, but is nothing more than an attempt to re-evaluate the revenue stream and an acknowledgement that the Bush era tax cuts were a disaster, causing the surplus he inherited to become a deficit almost instantly. Uncertainty is the problem more than a looming tax increase and to blame Obama for the stalemate causing the uncertainty is insincere or just plain oblivious to facts. Also, the dividend rate increase (which is negotiable Mr. Obama has repeated on a number of occasions, as is everything else if compromise is done by all vs dictate either agenda.. These radicals even have Mr. Boehner at his wits end and frankly, I believe he would be quite happy if this fringe of his party would just go away IMO because their rigidity is absolute. It is more important to be "right" and damage our economy and our system of government than to be able to find areas of agreement. "They have said as much, adding they would do nothing that would affect the likelihood of Mr. Obama's re-election, even if it were on issues they agree with. I liken it to political terrorism but I know that is a bit extreme on my end.
I will leave it at that, but wondered what you make of my observation regarding major "spin" action on CNBC is occurring that is politically one-sided and how it relates to your views of the news.
I would wish instead for balanced discussions about what both candidates will face as we approach the "FISCAL CLIFF" (a creation of the tea party itself IMO and my parting remark!) and what solutions are being proposed by both candidates. As a candidate, Mr. Romney contradicts his past positions repeatedly, and changes his message from region to region which is politics to a point, but his AWAKENINGS that caused him to change his outlook on almost everything are very hard to take as sincerity.

As always, thanks for your thoughtful analysis every week. It really helps put things in perspective on so many of the moving parts.
Your overall neutral presentation is something CNBC could certainly learn from and for which I commend you :-)

Timo

PS To all who disagree with my comments I only ask not to be attacked as I have experienced lately on other sites for similar remarks.
I too am an investor and I too want what is good for our country on many fronts including fair taxation. ( Regardless of who wins the election). Oh and I have stopped CNBC anyway, as now Tasty Trade is an alternative on TOS TDA. Way more relaxing and entertaining for me.

A Bearish Divergence As Australian Dollar Stalls While S&P 500 Jumps

Sun, 19 Aug 2012 09:58:51 -0400

BTW, I went back to read a couple other of your articles regarding the strength of the AUD and all of the looming headwinds for the economy (iron ore prices and growth in China slowing). But I didn't make the connection still. Any thoughts Doc? or anyone else too. Thanks

A Bearish Divergence As Australian Dollar Stalls While S&P 500 Jumps

Sun, 19 Aug 2012 09:48:47 -0400

This article is fascinating too (just read your AAPL article on daily variances).
The question I have though is this: What is the hypothesis for the correlation?
Maybe it went over my head, but I missed the reasoning besides the observation. Maybe that alone can be significant, but it sure puts a lot of faith in possible random coincidence.

Thanks
Timo

A Guide For Day-To-Day Trading In Apple's Stock

Sun, 19 Aug 2012 09:28:21 -0400

Interesting information that you don't see often. Now I just need to figure out how to apply it to my multiple positions I have on for Sept expiration that together are an iron condor formation with a range of 590-695 as BEP's. Nice risk reward but I wasn't expecting to be thinking about my high end being challenged this far out.
Still almost 4 weeks to go AND a huge announcement pre-exp with lots of hoopla regarding iPhone 5 release. Thanks for the article.