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  • When Will Stock Crater? Some Thoughts  [View article]
    in the 10-Q of CRM it is written that Exacttarget was consolidated from 12th july 2013. in the call transcript the management of CRM said that Exact contributed $16 million to revenues till 31st july. this gives an annualized of $292 million (amazing?), but Exact revenues were growing also in Q1 and Q2 2013, although the latter from a press release but ending 30th june. So either these people are just guessing or the revenue growth of Exact has gone into reverse after the transaction. also the losses of Exact were worsening recently
    Oct 5, 2013. 07:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aggressive Accounting And Public Relations Remain A Worry  [View article]
    Interesting cause no street analyst either asked about it during the call or wrote after it. The tax allowance was built during the last year using management's estimates of the potential revenue coming from intangible assets (yes, it is legal. sigh...). They filled the cookie jar for the hard times coming. On a trailing 12 months basis stock-based compensation has been raised from 47% to 60% of operating cash flow. This seems a lot like it would be a company's policy. In fact, without the tax allowance this proportion could have not been kept in the latest quarter unless sending the cash flow and earnings in deep red. Evidently employees want to be paid their salaries without disruptions.Regarding the Exact Target acquisition, perhaps CRM management would have been better keeping their mouth shut about it. The $16M revenue is referring to two months; well, the last trailing yearly revenue of Exact Target before the merger was circa $340M. So the effect of the merger on the target's business activity has been total mayhem.
    Sep 7, 2013. 04:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oracle Posts A Weak Quarter, Is A Target?  [View article]
    CRM products have to run on something somewhere, and they actually run on Oracle. I think ORCL has made sure that this will be the case in the foreseeable future, while the provider of cloud services will become a commodity.
    Jun 29, 2013. 04:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman's Terence Flynn says a study published in a medical journal suggests branded VEGF drugs such as Regeneron's (REGN +2.7%) Eylea "are superior to off-label Avastin." In the cited study, patients on Lucentis realized a 13 letter improvement in vision versus an 11 letter improvement for those on Avastin.  [View news story]
    Avastin's price is 1/10th of Lucentis' and Eyelea costs even more. Who would pay x10 for a 18% improvement of a non-life saving drug? Neither the national health services in Europe nor the HMOs in the US.
    Jun 29, 2013. 04:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Regeneron A Value Pick In The Pharma Sector?  [View article]
    There is a big argument in Europe about Lucentis, because it is considered too expensive and not better than Avastin, which is ten times cheaper at least. Avastin is being prescribed as off-label for the same condition and this thing has gone even on major news channels, with a cartel accusation against the makers of the two, namely that Roche has a gentleman's agreement with Novartis not to compete. Lucentis right now is fully reimbursed by the public health services in Europe, but budget's pressure everywhere does not bode well for it, so it's anyone's guess why Eyelea should be successful in Europe, so much that Sanofi has left the distribution to Bayer. Sanofi has also sold back to Regeneron all the patents for incremental development of Eyelea, and this is not the kind of behaviour one would expect from a major shareholder and potential buyer of the entire company.
    May 14, 2013. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allergan (AGN -9.4%) dives as management - on today's earnings call - has less than great progress to report on a couple of drugs in development. Regeneron (REGN +12.4%) spikes higher.  [View news story]
    Too bad the CEO sold 80,000 shares on this day, if only he had waited two days more he could have made $1.6 mln more.
    May 4, 2013. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Management Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript  [View article]
    We have a case study here: after the market's close the Sec disclosed the CEO sold 65% of his shares two days before ! Perhaps I am missing something.
    May 4, 2013. 06:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARM Holdings: This Will End Badly For Shareholders  [View article]
    For what it's worth, ARM went on a ten days investor tour around the US and Europe after results. A stock that sells by itself.
    May 2, 2013. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Pitney Bowes' New Management Stabilize Sales?  [View article]
    Before the cut the dividend payout rate had been 68%, which is unhealthy for every business on a going concern. Although 50% seems brutal, in fact now on company's GAAP numbers the payout is a very reasonable 40%. More disturbing were the 8 cents of expenses incurred to retire short term debt, because one would think that this was done to raise earnings instead. But let's not forget PBI has a massive leasing operation internally financed, so perhaps the benefits of lower borrowing rates will reflect later on higher profits (something a proper analyst should ask the company about, not the jokes in the conference call). Anyway, the price action has been extreme and makes me wonder if someone was expecting the new CEO to sell the company. The Investor meeting will clarify whether the new CEO will go on another spending spree or run the company more sensibly.
    May 1, 2013. 06:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Musings On What It Really Costs To Mine Gold  [View article]
    GFI has been calculating a measure called "Net Cash Expenditure" or NCE, which sums all cash outlays with capex utilization for every ounce of gold produced. Nevertheless the "markets" could not care less. Believing that stock prices are driven by extraction costs is naive.
    Apr 28, 2013. 06:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Number One Ranked Stock  [View article]
    The price of this stock on valuation grounds is ridiculous, so let's go straight to the growth thesis. The one and only reason this stock's price is so high is the success of Eyelea. As posted on Seeking Alpha this treatment is a direct eye injection given to old people once every two months; this is the advantage it has over the nearest competitor, which requires a shot every month. Now AMPE is in the final testing of an oral treatment. How fast do you think patients will switch to that when it is out?
    On top of this propeller other smaller nuggets have been deployed: Sanofi is going to buy the company, but they do not have/will not spend $20 bln on a single product they already distribute. Goldman Sachs is pushing the stock very hard; they are selling it to their clients like crazy. It is going into the S&P 500; perhaps there is still some buying pressure but it was expected.
    Most interesting is that the word "Optina" is completely absent from analysts' reports about this company.To sum up, the buyer of this stock today is paying a sky high growth already discounted in the share price, with the tail risk of a meltdown. Caveat emptor.
    Apr 27, 2013. 04:06 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche Bank adds to the positive sell-side calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG +10.6%), raising its price target to $345 from $330. Deutsche says CMG's Q1 margins were a "solid beat" but notes that the company seemed "more hesitant about raising prices" on this quarter's call, as management is apparently concerned with the "choppy macro" environment. DB's commentary is less sanguine than that of Credit Suisse and Northcoast which may explain why DB's new price target is the lowest of the group.  [View news story]
    seems to me CMG was helped in Q1 by US savings falling to compensate for payroll tax hike and the effect of sequestration which is playing out later in Q2 and Q3. US consumers cannot stop saving forever and economy could relapse into recession by then. Raising prices is unthinkable in 2013. changing consumer habits takes time but a retrenchment is a real possibility.
    Apr 19, 2013. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One of the stranger outcomes of gold's collapse is to make gold miners look more expensive, which Nomura says means more downside for the miners. "Lower levels of investment demand have the equilibrium point for the gold price at still lower levels. [If so], the equities should still have further to retrace." It's another down day for South African miners: HMY -5.6%, GOLD -4.5%, AU -4%, GFI -1.2%. (also[View news story]
    Nomura talking nonsense as usual, gold is stabilizing because physical demand is coming back. Also a weakening Rand is good for south-african miners as 50% of cost is labour and unprofitable pits can be shut very quickly.
    Apr 17, 2013. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Mild Chipotle Earnings As Cost Pressures Heat Up  [View article]
    The price of CMG implies that Q1 earnings will be at the top of analysts' range, if not above it. if they come lower than that the stock will probably take a big beating. I think the fair value is actually around $ 218 right now.
    Apr 15, 2013. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Lululemon (LULU +2.4%) buck a weak tape to trade higher as reports come in that the retailer is getting its production issues solved. Though the mishap with yoga pants that were deemed too sheer was costly, the general consensus from analysts is that the brand will keep its loyal base of adherents.  [View news story]
    cheerleaders' consensus, just what we need...
    Apr 15, 2013. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment