Is Regeneron A Value Pick In The Pharma Sector? [View article]
There is a big argument in Europe about Lucentis, because it is considered too expensive and not better than Avastin, which is ten times cheaper at least. Avastin is being prescribed as off-label for the same condition and this thing has gone even on major news channels, with a cartel accusation against the makers of the two, namely that Roche has a gentleman's agreement with Novartis not to compete. Lucentis right now is fully reimbursed by the public health services in Europe, but budget's pressure everywhere does not bode well for it, so it's anyone's guess why Eyelea should be successful in Europe, so much that Sanofi has left the distribution to Bayer. Sanofi has also sold back to Regeneron all the patents for incremental development of Eyelea, and this is not the kind of behaviour one would expect from a major shareholder and potential buyer of the entire company.
Allergan (AGN -9.4%) dives as management - on today's earnings call - has less than great progress to report on a couple of drugs in development. Regeneron (REGN +12.4%) spikes higher. [View news story]
Too bad the CEO sold 80,000 shares on this day, if only he had waited two days more he could have made $1.6 mln more.
Will Pitney Bowes' New Management Stabilize Sales? [View article]
Before the cut the dividend payout rate had been 68%, which is unhealthy for every business on a going concern. Although 50% seems brutal, in fact now on company's GAAP numbers the payout is a very reasonable 40%. More disturbing were the 8 cents of expenses incurred to retire short term debt, because one would think that this was done to raise earnings instead. But let's not forget PBI has a massive leasing operation internally financed, so perhaps the benefits of lower borrowing rates will reflect later on higher profits (something a proper analyst should ask the company about, not the jokes in the conference call). Anyway, the price action has been extreme and makes me wonder if someone was expecting the new CEO to sell the company. The Investor meeting will clarify whether the new CEO will go on another spending spree or run the company more sensibly.
Musings On What It Really Costs To Mine Gold [View article]
GFI has been calculating a measure called "Net Cash Expenditure" or NCE, which sums all cash outlays with capex utilization for every ounce of gold produced. Nevertheless the "markets" could not care less. Believing that stock prices are driven by extraction costs is naive.
The price of this stock on valuation grounds is ridiculous, so let's go straight to the growth thesis. The one and only reason this stock's price is so high is the success of Eyelea. As posted on Seeking Alpha this treatment is a direct eye injection given to old people once every two months; this is the advantage it has over the nearest competitor, which requires a shot every month. Now AMPE is in the final testing of an oral treatment. How fast do you think patients will switch to that when it is out? On top of this propeller other smaller nuggets have been deployed: Sanofi is going to buy the company, but they do not have/will not spend $20 bln on a single product they already distribute. Goldman Sachs is pushing the stock very hard; they are selling it to their clients like crazy. It is going into the S&P 500; perhaps there is still some buying pressure but it was expected. Most interesting is that the word "Optina" is completely absent from analysts' reports about this company.To sum up, the buyer of this stock today is paying a sky high growth already discounted in the share price, with the tail risk of a meltdown. Caveat emptor.
Deutsche Bank adds to the positive sell-side calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG +10.6%), raising its price target to $345 from $330. Deutsche says CMG's Q1 margins were a "solid beat" but notes that the company seemed "more hesitant about raising prices" on this quarter's call, as management is apparently concerned with the "choppy macro" environment. DB's commentary is less sanguine than that of Credit Suisse and Northcoast which may explain why DB's new price target is the lowest of the group. [View news story]
seems to me CMG was helped in Q1 by US savings falling to compensate for payroll tax hike and the effect of sequestration which is playing out later in Q2 and Q3. US consumers cannot stop saving forever and economy could relapse into recession by then. Raising prices is unthinkable in 2013. changing consumer habits takes time but a retrenchment is a real possibility.
One of the stranger outcomes of gold's collapse is to make gold miners look more expensive, which Nomura says means more downside for the miners. "Lower levels of investment demand have the equilibrium point for the gold price at still lower levels. [If so], the equities should still have further to retrace." It's another down day for South African miners: HMY -5.6%, GOLD -4.5%, AU -4%, GFI -1.2%. (also) [View news story]
Nomura talking nonsense as usual, gold is stabilizing because physical demand is coming back. Also a weakening Rand is good for south-african miners as 50% of cost is labour and unprofitable pits can be shut very quickly.
Expecting Mild Chipotle Earnings As Cost Pressures Heat Up [View article]
The price of CMG implies that Q1 earnings will be at the top of analysts' range, if not above it. if they come lower than that the stock will probably take a big beating. I think the fair value is actually around $ 218 right now.
Shares of Lululemon (LULU +2.4%) buck a weak tape to trade higher as reports come in that the retailer is getting its production issues solved. Though the mishap with yoga pants that were deemed too sheer was costly, the general consensus from analysts is that the brand will keep its loyal base of adherents. [View news story]
Lucrative AMD And DME Markets Attract Wall Street To Regeneron And Other Players [View article]
Goldman Sachs agrees with you , they put a price target at $215 and sold REGN to their muppet clients. It is amazing how people still follow their advice.
Don't Be Fooled By Pitney Bowes' 11% Dividend Yield [View article]
PBI got to sell the international mail division to a private equity after having written it down completely. That is unexpected money in the bank and goes to the credit of the new CEO.
As the "new" Gold Fields (GFI +1.5%) and its Sibanye Gold (SBGL) spinoff begin trading in the U.S. and South Africa, J.P. Morgan rates the new GFI at Outperform, as the unbundling of Sibanye "will allow management to focus on growing production and returns from its existing mines... as well as from its exploration and project pipeline, without the distraction of managing the very different legacy mines." [View news story]
Is Regeneron A Value Pick In The Pharma Sector? [View article]
Allergan (AGN -9.4%) dives as management - on today's earnings call - has less than great progress to report on a couple of drugs in development. Regeneron (REGN +12.4%) spikes higher. [View news story]
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Management Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
ARM Holdings: This Will End Badly For Shareholders [View article]
Will Pitney Bowes' New Management Stabilize Sales? [View article]
Musings On What It Really Costs To Mine Gold [View article]
My Number One Ranked Stock [View article]
On top of this propeller other smaller nuggets have been deployed: Sanofi is going to buy the company, but they do not have/will not spend $20 bln on a single product they already distribute. Goldman Sachs is pushing the stock very hard; they are selling it to their clients like crazy. It is going into the S&P 500; perhaps there is still some buying pressure but it was expected.
Most interesting is that the word "Optina" is completely absent from analysts' reports about this company.To sum up, the buyer of this stock today is paying a sky high growth already discounted in the share price, with the tail risk of a meltdown. Caveat emptor.
Deutsche Bank adds to the positive sell-side calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG +10.6%), raising its price target to $345 from $330. Deutsche says CMG's Q1 margins were a "solid beat" but notes that the company seemed "more hesitant about raising prices" on this quarter's call, as management is apparently concerned with the "choppy macro" environment. DB's commentary is less sanguine than that of Credit Suisse and Northcoast which may explain why DB's new price target is the lowest of the group. [View news story]
One of the stranger outcomes of gold's collapse is to make gold miners look more expensive, which Nomura says means more downside for the miners. "Lower levels of investment demand have the equilibrium point for the gold price at still lower levels. [If so], the equities should still have further to retrace." It's another down day for South African miners: HMY -5.6%, GOLD -4.5%, AU -4%, GFI -1.2%. (also) [View news story]
Expecting Mild Chipotle Earnings As Cost Pressures Heat Up [View article]
Shares of Lululemon (LULU +2.4%) buck a weak tape to trade higher as reports come in that the retailer is getting its production issues solved. Though the mishap with yoga pants that were deemed too sheer was costly, the general consensus from analysts is that the brand will keep its loyal base of adherents. [View news story]
Lucrative AMD And DME Markets Attract Wall Street To Regeneron And Other Players [View article]
Don't Be Fooled By Pitney Bowes' 11% Dividend Yield [View article]
What Makes These Stocks Tick? [View article]
As the "new" Gold Fields (GFI +1.5%) and its Sibanye Gold (SBGL) spinoff begin trading in the U.S. and South Africa, J.P. Morgan rates the new GFI at Outperform, as the unbundling of Sibanye "will allow management to focus on growing production and returns from its existing mines... as well as from its exploration and project pipeline, without the distraction of managing the very different legacy mines." [View news story]