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JGNorman

JGNorman
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  • The NAFTA Play: Investing In Mexico In 2012 [View article]
    Sensey, that's exactly why the US government is going out of its way to provide food stamp benefits to Mexicans.
    http://bit.ly/MFhme5
    Jul 24, 2012. 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Soft Landing For China [View article]
    Anybody hear about this?
    http://yhoo.it/K7fJHr;_ylt=AmFJwazwm9U75pbM...
    May 7, 2012. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Transportation: A Rare Combination Of Stability, Growth, And High Yield [View article]
    Stu, I have to agree with Graham's Ghost here. It would have made more sense for STB to not try to be like FirstGroup, National Express or Stagecoach when it comes to paying a large dividend. They should have conserved cash and issued less debt and stock. I would prefer them to use the cash to pay down debt and bolster liquidity. I wish they hadn't waited until the market closed to announce the stock issue, why couldn't they announce it during the day?
    Feb 28, 2012. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Transportation: A Rare Combination Of Stability, Growth, And High Yield [View article]
    Anybody here about this accident STB's Dairyland Bus had a major accident.
    http://bit.ly/AvxGSb
    Feb 27, 2012. 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Transportation: A Rare Combination Of Stability, Growth, And High Yield [View article]
    Happy Shorter, I agree with much of what you say, but I have to disagree with your claim that "Who said that they borrow to pay the dividends? Ridiculous!".

    Last year, STB had generated $36.3M in cash from operating activities. Lets assume that they will generate $50M this year from operations, they've already spent $70M on net capital expenditures this year (plus another $17M in off-balance sheet operating lease commitments), which results in negative free cash flow to equity holders of at least -$20M. This assumes that they don't spend any more money on CapEx and acquisitions. On top of this cash outflow, they are spending another $27M this year on the dividends, forcing them to borrow at least $45M this year.

    I would rather they throttle back the combined amount spent on Net CapEx and acquisitions to about the level of Depreciation and Amortization booked and conserved cash by suspending the dividend payment.
    Feb 27, 2012. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Transportation: A Rare Combination Of Stability, Growth, And High Yield [View article]
    How come yellowbird only singles me out for criticism?
    Feb 21, 2012. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Growth Properties (GGP): Q4 FFO of $0.29 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $719M (+0.9% Y/Y) beats by $37M. (PR)  [View news story]
    GGP had a real low hurdle to clear this quarter.
    Feb 21, 2012. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Transportation: A Rare Combination Of Stability, Growth, And High Yield [View article]
    Hey, Yellowbird is here! Seeking Alpha's resident STB Cultist has joined the discussion! Now, its a party!

    "I could care less about a loud mouth wanna be analyst from his dorm room who doesn't do his homework and never owned the shares." How about someone who works in a nationally recognized center for financial analysis, research, evaluation and academic integration?

    "Your bias is so clear and yet you don't have 10 cents to short the stock?" You're right, I have a lot more than that. A colleague I worked with told me not to talk about how much I have, that way people can't use it to strong-arm me.

    "Cash flow is what drives a company not GAAP net income." What about when that "cash flow" is being guzzled for CapEx, Acquisitions, Interest Payments and Dividends?

    Other companies can convert their GAAP Net Income into Free Cash Flows for Equity Holders. STB takes their cash flows, levers it up and does empire building.

    "By the way bankers can't lend to companies to pay annual amount for dividends, there are test for that called covenants and banks are very strict on this issue." I wonder when STB will fail to meet. I'm curious as to see what these covenants are. My preferred stocks can generate cash flows from operations without Alibi Ike'ing their Earnings Releases and complaining about GAAP accounting rules.

    If I was quote Martin"EBIT/I is below 1.2X, a very low number for any company. " My companies have higher EBIT/I than STB.

    "banks are very strict on this issue." I should hope so. I should hope that they learned their lesson from the Emerging Market Debt Crisis in the 1980s, the Real Estate Crisis of the early 1990s, the Dot-Bomb Bubble of the late 1990s and the Real Estate, Mortgage and Housing Bubbles of the 2000s.

    "Financial information is filed. MD&A is detailed." Do you really think that STB is unique in this?

    "Auditors are in place for public companies and here for 14 years according to their filings." Again, do you think that STB is unique in this. If you have to resort to this, maybe your argument sucks.

    "Major investment funds have been investing for years in STB. Major Government pension funds are invested since 2004." Lehman, WAMU, Bear Stearns, Dot.coms and others can all boast that little nugget of credibility too.

    "Get an education other than the internet and invest your funds wisely" My investment in blue-chips like V, VRTS, WFM, BLK and NVO, to name a few have done well because I invest my time and money wisely. Unlike STB, they have free cash flows after taking into account capital expenditures plus they don't have deal-crazed CEOs borrowing money to buy out their competition.

    Yellowbird, Graham's Ghost and Martinfrosa express the same concerns I have in the past and yet you only savage me?
    Feb 16, 2012. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Transportation: A Rare Combination Of Stability, Growth, And High Yield [View article]
    "Cherry picking a time frame is not really relevant." Identifying a good entry point is. Raymond James increased their target price by $.25 however they say that you are paying a rich valuation to get in to STB.

    Regardless of whether they are a corporation versus the income trust, they never should have been paying out dividends, that way they would have been able to issue less debt, & pay less interest expense.

    I expect decent organic growth of 8-10%, I would raise my target price on it if they cut back the Dividends, CapEx and acquisitions for a bit and devoted cash to paying down debt.
    Feb 15, 2012. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Transportation: A Rare Combination Of Stability, Growth, And High Yield [View article]
    Stu, STB is an investment banker's dream due to their deal-crazed CEO's acquisition spree and borrowing needs. A Buy-Side Investor, not so much. Since they began trading on the NASDAQ, their total return has only been 5% (all from dividends) versus 16% Total Return for the S&P 500.

    They should get rid of the Canadian Income Trust structure, stop borrowing to pay dividends and limit CapEx and Acquisitions to their depreciation & amortization expense allowances. That way they can minimize the amount of new borrowings that they will need in the future.
    Feb 15, 2012. 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nonfarm Payrolls Haven't Kept Pace With Population Growth [View article]
    The reason why population growth has exceeded job growth is due to the effects of offshore outsourcing of America jobs to Cheap Third World countries coupled with importing about 10 million immigrants during the last decade.
    Feb 4, 2012. 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why There's No Need For QE3 [View article]
    I agree with John Mason. The QE programs have helped jack up the cost of commodities and weaken the value of the dollar. It has helped those who have risky assets, but punished savers.
    Feb 4, 2012. 11:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Monthly Dividend Stocks For 2012 [View article]
    But did you shake his hand?
    http://on.fb.me/AsOvN7
    Feb 1, 2012. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Monthly Dividend Stocks For 2012 [View article]
    I like boutique asset managers myself. They have good growth like STB, however they don't have a bunch of heavy capital assets on the balance sheet, the need to finance with debt and stronger profit margins. I bought BLK back in February 2004 at 57 and change myself, when they were a fixed income boutique. Now, I'm thinking that they have grown up too much.

    Boutique assets are a way small investors can square or cube their edges over the Fidelity's of the world.
    Jan 28, 2012. 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Monthly Dividend Stocks For 2012 [View article]
    richjoy and Archman, STB declined faster than the market in their first month on the NASDAQ, then has outperformed it over the next three months. I would expect the stock to be more volatile than the Index, but only because they are a smaller cap, growth by acquisition company.

    I only mentioned the analyst downgrades because STB cultist Yellowbird was talking about the "quality bank analysts covering it" in an attempt to downgrade and belittle me for my more reserved outlook on the company.

    I'm glad that you, Archman and Todd's outlook is more sober and rational than Yellowbird's. I wish that we didn't have to wait about 45 days from the end of the quarter to hear their results, especially since bigger companies with more complex operations have already reported results.
    Jan 28, 2012. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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123 Comments
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