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Island_Dweller

Island_Dweller
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  • Peabody Energy - A Few More Reasons To Invest [View article]
    Short interest is another potential catalyst as bankruptcy chatter is taken off the table.

    I think while coal prices will remain subdued, the worst is indeed behind the industry. Countries can pledge, call for, and encourage clean energy, but the reality comes down to price.

    The market has witnessed coal go from king to pauper. Capitulation has most likely occurred this year thus going forward a rebound is to be expected.
    Sep 1, 2015. 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean - Still Reacting To The Market [View article]
    Had a huge profit in RIG in April, chose not to sell. Obviously the wrong call, however I continue to DCA into these depressed prices awaiting the next rebound. The real test is when oil rebounds will it be another head fake or the real deal. Current events like the 35% drop in oil since June because of, I guess Iran (?) do not concern me.

    Let's see how quickly U.S. production pulls back heading into the end of the year.
    Aug 26, 2015. 10:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Prices Will Rebound [View article]
    That's it, oil prices at sub-40 regardless of tech advancements is not sustainable not only for many domestic producers, but for international fiscal policies.
    Aug 26, 2015. 10:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Readies To Take Out $40 [View article]
    Charts are hindsight. They absolutely serve a purpose in terms of gaining perspective but are far from certain in definitively determining directions, in other words they are a piece to the puzzle not the answer itself.
    Aug 21, 2015. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Readies To Take Out $40 [View article]
    Charts are great for references and hindsight, but as for where we're headed it's still borderline guesswork.

    I'm looking at some facts that are largely being ignored as new trends are forming.

    U.S. production has peaked and quietly(?) will fall below 9 million. With reduction in spending from integrated majors to offshore drillers, there will be a rebalancing, make no mistake. Demand will continue to rise even into the winter months.

    We're at a turning point, a slow turn, but like a huge ship you can't turn on a dime and there won't be a "V" shaped recovery, but once the new direction is established it will be so for a significant portion of time.

    - cheaper fuels prices equals more discretionary spending
    - world GDP not contracting (+3.3%)
    - EMs are not as bad as made out to be
    - production declines from the U.S.
    - U.S. housing starts sitting at near 8 year high
    - commodities are near the lows not the highs

    My point is there are reasons to be a little bullish here read: cautious even though constant media doom and gloom point to easy money being short or bearish.
    Aug 19, 2015. 11:04 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar stocks sell off as oil, energy stocks, Canadian Solar get hit [View news story]
    Solar correlated with oil? What's next? Coffee sells off thanks to the natty gas surplus because "reasons?"
    Aug 19, 2015. 08:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Chase Chesapeake Just Yet, Wait For Brent $33-$39 [View article]
    You could get a job at Goldman. I suggest submitting a résumé.
    Aug 17, 2015. 08:30 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Chase Chesapeake Just Yet, Wait For Brent $33-$39 [View article]
    If you bought without any conviction in the stock and had no plan B should things become bad to worse, why buy in the first place? Either 1. set a stop loss or 2. average down. Sitting on a paper loss greater than 50% sounds completely voluntary rather than reactionary.
    Aug 17, 2015. 07:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Take Profits In Transocean [View article]
    RIG is still trading at 1990s prices, and while so much has changed I don't consider the macro environment harsh enough to warrant the selloff in offshore drillers and therefore obsolescence thanks to shale oil as holding any real merit.

    Short term trading the stock can reap some nice profits but when the train leaves the station it will be significant. It has become more apparent that RIG can weather this storm and even more storms ahead therefore averaging into these prices is what I've been doing to the tune of 1100 shares (for me a lot).

    Basically it comes down to nibbling on some profits or taking a big bite once the market re-balances. Both offer upside, personally I'd rather just wait for the whole move (50%+) rather than pieces and the difficulty of near-perfect short term timing of trades.
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Peabody Energy Finally Facing Oblivion? [View article]
    Share price is a fairly weak argument. I'd rather point to the slow adoption of renewables particularly under a pro-renewable government for the last 7+ years.

    In 2014 renewables made up 10% of total U.S. energy consumption. Solar is barely on the map with wind making a decent showing and hydroelectric being the clear winner. Coal is still nearly double renewables total and that's under a less than friendly administration.

    http://1.usa.gov/1UCNKRn
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn takes active 8.18% stake in Cheniere Energy [View news story]
    Clearly Carl has taken a bath in CHK, but I think he knows better than most that there's no reason to panic concerning the company.
    Aug 6, 2015. 10:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Peabody Energy Finally Facing Oblivion? [View article]
    The author has been right about the decline of coal, however there are assumptions and comparisons being made that are more window-dressing than empirical.

    Businesses can pledge about what they intend to do, but price dictates what they will do. I pledge to buy organic food, but I still end up buying regular groceries sometimes.

    Political statements and intentions are not a reason to discount the importance of coal nor should they be used as a source to determine its direction before they are elected to a higher seat of power.

    China is weak yet India is committed.

    Coal is not the Sony Walkman of the electric power grid. Saying that coal is going to become obsolete implies a biased slant that is fact-less.

    Peabody cannot be compared to Walter energy and to make such a comparison indicates a lack of understanding how Peabody operates.

    Again, the author has been right on coal, but being right and then proclaiming outright destruction of an absolutely crucial industry to cheap power generation is moving away from the facts. We are not witnessing an energy renaissance.
    Jul 29, 2015. 09:29 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Is Challenged But Not Dead [View article]
    Hard to believe it held $1 on heavy-ish volume.
    Jul 29, 2015. 12:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Prices Will Rebound [View article]
    2 million barrels is not much wiggle room given global demand is pushing 94 million. That's the reason some are playing this by going long, myself included. 2 million oversupply should not have constituted a more than 50% plunge. People are acting like everything will remain constant, that supply will always outstrip demand, and there won't be any supply disruptions. The dollar is certainly exacerbating the situation, however.

    Asia demand alone is at a record high, over 30 million b/pd and showing no signs of slowing despite constant media attention flapping its arms to a "slow down" in China. World GDP is still expected to grow over 3.3% (it was revised lower from 3.5% but not because of China). Forecasts indicate global demand will increase by just over 1m b/pd through 2017, which I think is low balling demand given cheaper fuel costs working its way to consumer's discretionary income.

    While there is an oversupply in LNG, oil, and coal, it's short sighted to think this will remain constant.

    Everywhere you look there are energy names trading at ridiculous valuations because of narrow perception, because of momentum, and because of herd mentality.
    Jul 27, 2015. 08:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Is Challenged But Not Dead [View article]
    Anyone else think BTU will break $1 post earnings?
    Jul 27, 2015. 07:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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