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Island_Dweller

Island_Dweller
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  • Seadrill: Why Crickets Can Be A Good Thing [View article]
    Assuming the current environment remains tumultuous, what makes you think SDRL will come out ahead? If the assumption of a tough 2015 proves to be false, then doesn't the entire industry stand to benefit?

    In terms of idle rigs, the company has a plan, I'm certain, of how to play this downturn both strategically and effectively. If their strat isn't something you agree with, wouldn't it be prudent to give management, who's first rodeo this isn't, the benefit of the doubt? If they aren't scrapping rigs at the pace you want, perhaps you are too aggressive.

    Going back to 1986, anytime oil has fallen more than 50%, it has rebounded with a vengeance within 12-16 months, except 1991, which is 4 out of 5 times including the current oil bear.

    If oil does indeed significantly rebound, as the bottom appears in, within the next 12 months, not scrapping rigs aggressively puts RIG in an advantageous position, similarly SDRL will be fine as will the entire sector.

    I'm not buying the bear case of older rigs mean less future contracting. May be an oversimplified way to look at it, but a brand new oven doesn't cook food better than an old one. The new bells and whistles sure are nice, but the delicious food and happy customers are what matter most.

    I'm not looking to focus on micromanaging information, but rather look at the bigger picture: the industry as a whole is oversold.
    May 23, 2015. 06:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Why Crickets Can Be A Good Thing [View article]
    Care to extrapolate on why RIG will be hit with "poor contracting?"

    Promoting SDRL and shunning RIG is like saying you think Burger King is good but avoid McDonald's. Both drillers are buys, both will make shareholders money, however one is leveraged up to its eyeballs, and the other has to update its fleet while it has the chance during this bear oil market.

    I'm also of the opinion that RIG has a more experienced management team and the dividend of 3% is nothing to smirk at.

    I completely disagree that RIG is an avoid, and while I am knee deep in RIG at an average price of $15, I would be open to buying SDRL on any dips as it's trading like a leveraged driller 2x ETF.
    May 22, 2015. 07:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Not The Right Time To Consider Transocean [View article]
    The entire sector is in bargain territory. DO has the oldest fleet and it's going to do just fine.

    Both RIG and SDRL are going to make investors money, I'd just rather go with the one with stronger management lineup and a 3% yield.
    May 21, 2015. 05:51 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Might Prove To Be A Bargain At Current Price Levels [View article]
    Dividend - check. Massive insider buying- check. Trading at 3 year lows - check. High short interest - check. Absolutely despised by investment banks - check.

    Lot of checks, lots of opportunity.
    May 19, 2015. 07:42 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Periscope From The Inside: A Reason To Buy Twitter [View article]
    Now I know I'm being trolled.
    May 19, 2015. 06:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Periscope From The Inside: A Reason To Buy Twitter [View article]
    Profit for my portfolio is king.

    I've posted all my trades going back 3 years on my stock talks.

    May I suggest enrolling in a community college to satisfy your ethics appetite, because last I checked, Wall Street isn't exactly the ethical mecca.

    Point to me where I pumped the stock because I'm sure you don't know what a pump looks like.

    Again, I'm not your friend, and if need be I can use smaller words with less syllables next time to clarify.
    May 19, 2015. 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking for an oil bounceback? Don't buy energy stocks [View news story]
    Oil has been on a tear since March and lines don't go straight up.
    May 19, 2015. 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Periscope From The Inside: A Reason To Buy Twitter [View article]
    #1 I'm not your friend.
    #2 I've made money buying and selling TWTR - Have you?
    #3 Profit is king, I could care less about your ethical ramblings.

    In other news, old man yells at cloud.
    May 18, 2015. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking for an oil bounceback? Don't buy energy stocks [View news story]
    Exactly. You can read and hear from all the experts, but at the end of the day what's your portfolio's performance? I bought RIG in Feb and March and am up more than 40%; there's an analyst with a $3 price target!

    It pays to filter the noise and simply concentrate on what makes the most sense.
    May 17, 2015. 08:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking for an oil bounceback? Don't buy energy stocks [View news story]
    Before the company had problems it no longer has.
    May 17, 2015. 08:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Periscope From The Inside: A Reason To Buy Twitter [View article]
    Call me out? Are you always this condescending?

    The actual price of a stock is "completely irrelevant?" I think I woke the neighbors with how loud I laughed.

    You can preach until the cows come home about valuation, but as the sole reason to disregard TWTR or any stock, it shows how out of your comfort zone you really are. There are stronger bear cases to be made against TWTR such as slow MAU growth, management ineffectiveness, and monetization of users.

    Social media is on everyone's radar and (almost) everyone's phone. As such the valuation argument can only hold so much weight because the vast majority of emphasis is squarely on speculation not math. Social media as an industry is barely 10 years old, as I said, you are a fundamental investor and as such you should steer clear. I really don't know why you comment on each TWTR article when you're not long or short, and you're risk appetite isn't built for this.

    So my estimate on TWTR's valuation, or anyone's estimate is simply grasping at straws. There's definitely a level where the valuation argument becomes louder, just not in the mid-30s IMO. A fair valuation for the company is at least $25 billion given how much WhatsApp ($22 billion) sold for.
    May 17, 2015. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Periscope From The Inside: A Reason To Buy Twitter [View article]
    For some reason Lil' Pip has a deep seeded disdain for TWTR. After a 30% haircut the guy rags on the stock with quite the zeal as if it's trading above 50. He needs to stick to high yield or blue chips where you can digest all the "maths" you want.

    For me, TWTR isn't so much an investment as it is a trade-able stock. Now, it's stuck in a "show me" mode with investors, and basically if you bought post plunge you believe the growth story will continue or at the very least recover some lost momentum. In other words, you buy the stock based on price action or reaction, news, and instinct not "maths" guesswork. My instinct told me the plunge was an overreaction and there are many potential catalysts thus creating a favorable buying environment. Buy out, CEO oust, return to growth, just to name a few.

    Looking at the price action the stock has entrenched itself at the $37 level and here is where support has become quite strong indicating we've probably seen the worst. Probably.
    May 15, 2015. 09:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Is 20% Undervalued [View article]
    SDRL has a new fleet, but that's about it. With debt issues, no dividend, and shaky management (dividend being eliminated when they said it was safe), I'd rather put my money on the more experienced player.

    That said, I don't get how one can "smell the coffee" when both stand to benefit from the recent surge in oil. Concurrently I also have no idea how one can short RIG and be long SDRL. It's like being short USO and long UCO. Moreover, emphasis on a newer fleet doesn't necessarily translate to better future business, I mean why hasn't DO gone out of business being the company with the oldest fleet?
    May 13, 2015. 11:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Petroleum Inventories [View news story]
    EIA, API, OPEC, analysts, investment banks, industry CEOs: what they say isn't gospel. It's like a rankings slave in fantasy football. Follow the experts at your own risk, but remember they also have their own agendas.

    Rely less on assumptions and concentrate more on the facts. Even if you're a little late to party, it's better to make an informed decision rather than a quicker move but on the wrong side of the trade.
    May 13, 2015. 05:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC Oil Price Estimate Is Very Bearish [View article]
    OPEC's record of calling oil prices have been so erratic and off the mark historically, it's a wonder people take them seriously.
    May 12, 2015. 05:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
496 Comments
858 Likes