Island_Dweller

Island_Dweller
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  • Oil spikes on report of OPEC agreement  [View news story]
    I was correct in thinking oil in the 20s would spark a broad sell-off. It looks like OPEC is going to make some moves this year. It can't go on like this. Problem is Russia can't be trusted to follow through and OPEC remembers getting shafted last time.
    Feb 11, 2016. 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy (BTU) Glenn L. Kellow on Q4 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript  [View article]
    I was expecting a more detailed conference call. Really nothing worth noting except better efficiency and the real cheesecake, talks with creditors. They can prolong their business but in a macro environment where now the markets are starting to tank, buying time is all they can do.
    Feb 11, 2016. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short interest in energy sector hits highest in more than a decade  [View news story]
    To continue your analogy, oil finally rising is like Goku finally joining the fight... it takes like half a season.
    Feb 11, 2016. 07:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Unrelenting oversupply" in offshore drilling market brings debt into focus  [View news story]
    Because markets always remain constant and expectations are also always easy to predict.
    Feb 1, 2016. 06:14 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: The Moves Left On The Chessboard  [View article]
    Sell non-core assets at a decent price. I realize this is a seller's market, thus the price they get won't be advantageous however I have yet to see the company sell assets at a ridiculous discount.

    Continue pursuing advancements in efficiency, I expect this to be a cornerstone of their strategy going forward.

    It's not just CHK swimming in debt, yet the company is chastised for this very factor. This isn't their first time at the rodeo in terms of a depressed market. They have options, and their production is not under pressure in terms of demand. Nat gas and oil continue to be integral to energy as nat gas replaces coal and oil demand will surpass expectations, gradually as consumers take advantage of cheap gas.

    While time may not be on the company's side, one thing I can state as a fact, the energy market does not remain constant, therefore energy prices while depressed are not likely to remain so. Volatility, short term fluctuations, and a search for direction will be the immediate norm, but once momentum reverses the big gains will have already been logged before the media coverage (CNBC, talking heads, analyst celebrities (Cramer)) state it's OK to buy.
    Feb 1, 2016. 05:30 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sharing My Thoughts On Peabody Energy's Proposed 2018 Debt Exchange  [View article]
    That's the thing though C&C, management can only do so much in this once-in-a-lifetime coal depression. The stock is being traded less on what the company does and more on sentiment and the overall industry. Much like shorting the yen, it's the fierce momentum of a "sure thing" trade, short the yen, short coal.

    A complete reversal in fundamentals will truly spark a sustained comeback. China's data, political and the EIA pressure, bankruptcies, cheap rival natural gas, etc. all aren't helping. Management can dig in and fend off the siege, but help must arrive from some outside market forces. I liken it to the battle at Helm's Deep in LoTR, we need Gandalf and the cavalry to mount a successful comeback. The question is: will they arrive in time?
    Jan 26, 2016. 09:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Production Is Falling Hard  [View article]
    I wonder what the U.S. production number OPEC and Russia are looking for so they take some supply off the table...
    Jan 26, 2016. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy - Bad News For Stockholders  [View article]
    Half the time I don't even know what he's on about.
    Jan 26, 2016. 08:38 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy - Bad News For Stockholders  [View article]
    "well positioned" is a bit of a stretch, isn't it?

    Capable to weather this monumental weakness in commodities is where I'd put CHK, but time is not on the company's side. Another year with depressed prices will make the current bad situation incredibly worse.
    Jan 26, 2016. 08:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sharing My Thoughts On Peabody Energy's Proposed 2018 Debt Exchange  [View article]
    I tend to refrain from talking politics, and I absolutely loathe Trump, but as an investor I at least expect him to make a splash in the coming election and take some battered industries along for the ride. I don't see how he can be elected though.
    Jan 26, 2016. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy - Bad News For Stockholders  [View article]
    Uh, what's point four in the summary supposed to mean?
    Jan 26, 2016. 06:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sharing My Thoughts On Peabody Energy's Proposed 2018 Debt Exchange  [View article]
    I was so tempted to average down my position in the equity. I layed low and while a total loss will sting I managed to avoid ' backin up the truck. '

    I think relentless pressure will be the company's undoing, not because of management's ineffectiveness but because a choke hold is tricky to counter.

    With Arch Coal finally filing, all eyes and unwanted momentum trading downward pressure is now squarely on BTU's shoulders.

    If BTU should file it certainly won't be current management's fault. Running a company while fending off the vultures circling your remains is a position that's bad worse and worsest.

    On a positive note if Kellow and Co. successfully navigate this catastrophic cataclysmic apocalypse, he will be without any doubt CEO of the decade.
    Jan 25, 2016. 12:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy sinks to 16-year low as biggest S&P 500 loser  [View news story]
    China buying a U.S. company assets is the sort of "pie in the sky" scenario that doesn't contribute to a sound investment thesis.
    Jan 19, 2016. 08:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy sinks to 16-year low as biggest S&P 500 loser  [View news story]
    I'm deep in the red in CHK ($10 DCA), but one must not point to a revolver as any sort of lifeline. I've seen recently companies go BK with a revolver untapped. Mind you I'm not implying CHK is headed for the same fate.
    Jan 19, 2016. 08:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy - Time To Run For Cover?  [View article]
    Ignorance is bliss.
    Jan 15, 2016. 07:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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