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Island_Dweller

Island_Dweller
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  • Markets pull back from worst levels as Greek finance minister resigns [View news story]
    There's little to no correlation between Greece's problems and oil. The dollar is steady, Iran's expectations are overblown, and China is going almost all out to continue growth. The rig count finally rising by 12 is a reason to sell off? Did everyone forget how much the rig count has fallen?
    Jul 6, 2015. 08:01 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: Don't Listen To The Sell Side (If You Want To Keep Your Money) [View article]
    The move from 15 to 11 was not company specific or even commodity driven as ngas has been more or less flat since March. When ngas fell from above 4 last December the worst it got for CHK was $13.50, meanwhile the commodity has been in a 2.50 - 3 range yet CHK has fallen dramatically.

    Basically there's a discrepancy between the recent behavior of CHK and commodity prices thus the selloff has been more rhetoric driven, very late rhetoric I might add than actual company concerns.

    On top of this the analyst who downgraded to sell has a total return of -10% when just considering CHK. His last recommendations were to buy at $21 and sell at $11. Not the kind of action one might consider if one plans to make money.

    So while yes, there has been lots of noise to buy CHK it doesn't discount the fact that the company is cheap and at the worst perhaps a value trap. Long term the company's potential is quite compelling.

    I've been averaging down in the name as a 3% yield is nothing to sneeze at and the upside risk/reward scenario is convincing enough to ride out this recent downturn.
    Jun 29, 2015. 03:04 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More trouble ahead for offshore drillers, Wells Fargo says [View news story]
    Yes, it is a concern, that's why the entire sector has been absolutely demolished -50 -60 -70%. The question one needs to ask is not if but when will the corner be turned. Commodities are like a roller coaster, ups and downs, and it's the trough that presents patient investors the biggest rewards.

    I think most negative news should be priced in at these levels, day rate cuts, contract renewals hard to come by, etc., but when the market's thirst for oil returns, these stocks are going to explode, again, not if but when. Long term bets against energy is not a winning strategy.
    Jun 22, 2015. 04:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Petroleum Engineer's Perspective: Which E&Ps To Bet On In A Market Downturn [View article]
    An author that's an asset to this investment website. Well done.
    My horse is CHK.
    Jun 22, 2015. 01:26 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More trouble ahead for offshore drillers, Wells Fargo says [View news story]
    These stocks are trading as if oil fell back below $50. Nothing has drastically changed except analysts talking the stocks down. All it is - is rhetoric.

    Holding RIG and sleeping well at night.
    Jun 19, 2015. 07:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Is Making New Lows - What You Need To Know [View article]
    I think shorting the stock has pushed it to levels that are unjustified even taking into account depressed market conditions.
    Jun 15, 2015. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Is Making New Lows - What You Need To Know [View article]
    Reasons I've been buying $BTU at these levels:

    - Valuation compared to historical averages
    - Incredible short interest
    - No risk of continuing as a going concern at this juncture
    - Down 80%+
    - Current share price isn't indicative of market realities
    - It's a contrarian's contrarian stock
    - Election cycle will create some interest from bottom fishers
    - Coal isn't doomed
    Jun 14, 2015. 08:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Is 20% Undervalued [View article]
    If you think RIG or the industry in general isn't undervalued given even the most basic valuation analysis, I'd like to hear what you recommend, or perhaps I missed the sign on the door of this conversation saying beware of trolls.
    Jun 14, 2015. 04:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Drilling slowdown continues as oil rig count drops by seven [View news story]
    So why did S.A. refuse a request for more oil from China, forcing China to look to Russia?

    The market will re-balance and demand will eventually outstrip supply again, you simply must exude some patience and discipline in allocating your portfolio based on taking advantage of severe market swings, after all the cure for low prices is low prices. The rebound has been swift since March, and I think demand is going to surprise many to the upside.
    Jun 12, 2015. 11:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Industry Is Rapidly Becoming A Remnant Of The Past [View article]
    The author recommends shorting the major coal companies at current levels? What's the risk/reward for shorting a stock at less than 5 bucks given that the are already down 80%+? The time to short has passed.

    Me thinks the demise of coal has been greatly exaggerated.
    Jun 8, 2015. 05:20 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Oil And Copper Stocks Take Hit, Where To Look For Buys [View article]
    Simply reiterating performance over the past several weeks of CHK coupled with a negative take on the chart is considered analysis?

    CHK got pulled down this week due to, most likely, a downgrade from Moody's from positive to stable on June 3rd. More often than not, whenever a stock takes a rating hit, it has a decent chance of running up. I'm not saying this is a sure thing, but rather that listening to Moody's as a reason to sell when they go negative is a poor reason. As an example look at what happened to SNE when they got downgraded by Moody's to junk on Jan. 14th 2014, only to run up over 70% as of Friday's close.

    CHK is a hated stock in a difficult market, which is to me a great time to nibble on some down here, soak a decent divy, and wait for things to turn around, which imo they will.
    Jun 6, 2015. 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil on the move as OPEC leaves production unchanged [View news story]
    The Saudis are pumping over their target of 30 million bpd for how many months and yet they rejected China's request for extra supply?

    Sounds like the supply "glut" will be a temporary phenomenon rather than the standard.
    Jun 5, 2015. 08:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offshore drillers rose sharply, as investors see bright side of Hercules news [View news story]
    Investing in undervalued companies punished alongside oil's fall that are trading at multi-year lows are considered an "avoid?" Painful 2015? Probably, however given a decent timeline, these stock could and imo will double.

    As an aside, might want to check your profile if you want to be taken seriously as a tax strrategist.
    Jun 2, 2015. 07:08 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy, Cloud Peak sink on negative Goldman Sachs view [View news story]
    Let's follow the money because that's where the action is:
    Billionaire investor Balyasny Asset Management revealed a new position in Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU) in its latest 13F filing. Balyasny purchased a 27.31 million-share stake valued at $134.34 million as of March 31, 2015.

    Goldman Sachs, with no admitted skin in the game recommends you sell BTU after an 80% drop, on the other hand a billionaire investor bought 27 million shares, quietly. I know who I'd rather follow.
    Jun 1, 2015. 08:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Easy money keeps oil drillers drilling [View news story]
    There isn't a world oil supply superabundance. Oversupplied, yes slightly, but not to the point where prices should have dived greater than 50%.
    Jun 1, 2015. 03:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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