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Island_Dweller

Island_Dweller
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  • These 5 Signs Indicate That Oil May Have Already Hit Rock Bottom [View article]
    Concentrating on pinpointing the bottom is not what one should be devoting one's time to but rather a deliberate disciplined averaging into these levels. The fall has been quick, and we probably won't get the "v" shaped recovery, but all you need to do is look where oil was, how far it's fallen, and how much the world still depends on this commodity?

    Another point is how unstable are the regions that still account for so much production. What if Lybia were to go offline again? What if a war breaks out, political unrest in an oil producing nation, or some other unforeseen but unsurprising event.

    Further, as drillers contract, and the Saudis feel its time to flex their marketshare muscle, and the global economy still grows, oil is going to rally, just wait and dip your toe in and average down if things get worse, but I'm convinced this is shaping up to be a once-in-a-decade opportunity to establish positions.
    Jan 27, 2015. 11:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Is A Fantastic Business On Sale - Be Grateful For The 9% Decline After Earnings [View article]
    and $10 oil right?
    Jan 27, 2015. 08:25 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft guides cautiously again, lowers spending forecast [View news story]
    True colors Zip. When others serve you a meaningful rebuttal you decide to take premarket price action as a way to feed your superiority complex. Well played.
    Jan 27, 2015. 07:35 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft -3%; Windows revenue under pressure [View news story]
    Headwinds to be sure, and the quarter was mixed, however the vision Nadella laid out is not going to be realized without making the necessary sacrifices.

    They are sacrificing one time upgrade cycles for subscriptions, aggressively promoting W10 with lessons learned from W8 by allowing free upgrades for platform growth. Services will be where the growth is once hardware is saturated. Platform growth now is the key to success even if it means taking some lumps like giving away W10. Keeping in mind it's only for 1 year thus acceleration is the primary focus.

    I like this strategy and agree with it 100%. There was bound to be this kind of quarter, and I expect at least another one or two like this again. Microsoft must get consumers hooked to their services, first through their devices and if not there then wherever they may be (Office for ipad). You have these disjointed services, Skype, Phone, Xbox Live, Office 360, search, Cortana, Windows Store, and cloud, now you need an OS to tie everything together therefore unlocking value for the consumer. If, and yes it's a big if, W10 can successfully tie all these services together utilizing the cloud on their hardware platform, less emphasis should be placed on the OS itself as a means of revenue and more about the experience, services, and sales.

    Everyone can and should agree that software as the company's cashcow going forward is simply resting on its laurels and not moving with any vision. I expect as the company moves forward it will continue to deemphasize windows as the future growth model, and investors holding onto slowing windows revenue as a reason to overlook the company is missing what Nadella has been saying since day one.
    Jan 26, 2015. 10:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures sink following Greek elections [View news story]
    Not necessarily, at least based on the rhetoric from newly elected Tsipras. Renegotiation is not the same as defaulting. Simply because the party is a "leftist" party doesn't mean they hate money and have some grand ideology resulting from a self-fulfilling prophecy to restore the good name of Greece. They're just as greedy as the "righties" they're just going to go about it a different way.

    I'm willing to bet there will be some sort of compromise and all this will be swept under the rug and a new headline will make its way around the talking head networks otherwise known today as journalists.

    Doom and gloom from this is really just the pandering of easily spooked investors.

    The point is to make money from this overblown situation.
    Jan 26, 2015. 02:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures sink following Greek elections [View news story]
    I'd understand this revelation if there were other countries expressing a desire to leave, but none are, or at least none with any conviction. There are 7 countries applying to join the EU. It's a domino falling by itself.
    Jan 25, 2015. 11:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kuroda: Japan to grow 2% in fiscal 2015 [View news story]
    What worked for the U.S. will surely work for Japan, I mean, why not?
    Jan 25, 2015. 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures sink following Greek elections [View news story]
    New York City has a metropolitan population of nearly 20 million, Greece has a population of 11 million. Greece's GDP is just inside the top 50 in the world at est. 47th place.

    Why is this even making the news in any meaningful way? Investors, the market, and the world are swayed by psychological factors as much as financial factors. Any ripple is used as an excuse for a subsequent action, in this case to sell.

    A little perspective is valuable when all the noise points to an otherwise meaningless selloff. This example reminds me of politicians quarreling about raising the debt ceiling, in other words an opportunity to purchase stocks a little cheaper.

    If we were talking about Italy or Spain, then we're taking about a significant situation, but Greece? And all this attention? Actually more comical than worrisome.
    Jan 25, 2015. 10:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche: Twitter is like Facebook 2-3 years ago [View news story]
    In a market where Whatsapp sold for $ 19 billion, I'm pretty sure you can throw the "it's overvalued" argument right out the door.
    Jan 24, 2015. 10:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Hour Gainers / Losers [View news story]
    I can't find anywhere saying CONN is up 10% AH...
    Jan 20, 2015. 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Take-Two - Impressive 'GTA V' Sales To Spark Massive Q3 Upside [View article]
    I was going to sell TTWO prior to the quarter results, but looking at how well GTA V re-release sold and Evolve not going to be delayed again - the company looks poised to capitalize on a strong console refresh for '15.

    That said, I do expect Evolve to disappoint, or to not quite reach the hype. There's a lot of hype surrounding the game and being multiplayer only with a very thin storyline, I just don't see the game selling double digit millions. I think the debut will be strong, but not the blockbuster the hype is suggesting. Overall I expect the stock to take a hit from Evolve underperforming, but long term the story remains in bullish mode. Further, the company has quite a few surprises in store for this year (Red Dead Redemption???).
    Jan 19, 2015. 04:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Fleet Update Has Nothing Exciting To Offer [View article]
    This is exactly what I'm doing, waiting for a dividend cut to open a position, however LINE popped when they slashed their dividend and just about everyone expects RIG to slash theirs. So basically those who are waiting on a drop when the announcement comes could watch the stock rise on the news. On the other hand if RIG completely stops their dividend then I think a surprised investor collective will sell the news.
    Jan 17, 2015. 10:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Activision Could Beat Its Own Guidance For Q4 [View article]
    I'm also in the camp that thinks come Feb. 5th will show a significant beat, but what I'm not so excited about is another light guidance letdown. If they can 1-2 punch with a good beat and increased guidance I'm fairly certain we will see another 10%+ move.
    Jan 16, 2015. 07:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Conn's Has Been Deemed A Perfect Short [View article]
    So we must assume a retail sector going concern in disarray from a failed lending practice initiative should simple right the ship in a matter of months.

    Dismissing the report, which it seems many investors as the day went on did, is missing the overall picture - the company is moving in the right direction. It's not an easy fix to stabilize credit delinquencies but the report pointed to progress. I'll admit the report was mixed, but it certainly wasn't a bad report, and I couldn't disagree more with your thesis that tighter lending practices is going to significantly hinder growth.

    Small step, but the most important point is that the worst is behind this company. Short this stock at your own peril.
    Jan 8, 2015. 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft And Sony: Game Console Refreshes Might Come Sooner Than Expected [View article]
    My own opinion is that the current console gen will not last as long as the previous.
    Jan 4, 2015. 02:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
411 Comments
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