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Island_Dweller

Island_Dweller
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  • SeaDrill: Plan Playing Out Provides Major Long-Term Catalyst [View article]
    My horse in this race is RIG, but SDRL is looking awfully undervalued as well.
    Mar 29, 2015. 12:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean - An Opportunity Through The Oil Crash [View article]
    Suffice to say I've been loading up on RIG at $15 and under. Completely and utterly overweight in my portfolio in this stock, but I expect to hold for at least 1- 2 years, I'm looking for a rebound of epic proportions.
    Mar 28, 2015. 05:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks set for more losses at the open [View news story]
    But oil stocks are up thanks to a "black swan" event in Yemen.
    Energy comeback 2015.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean - Rig Moves Aren't Enough [View article]
    For oil to reach $20 there would have to be a worldwide economic recession, with global supply skyrocketing (it's not), and Iran's sanctions lifted, Libya to have political stability, etc.

    While oil futures dictate some sharp moves, I think the "short oil" trade is pretty crowded, anyone who's short at this point is, who else is left to bet? Many people are looking for a test of $40 then a bounce then a confirmed bottom. While the charts suggest $40 is a given, I'm not so sure. OPEC isn't budging, shale supply is still rising (for now), the dollar is high, Iran deal is on the table, capacity is coming into question...With all these negatives, why hasn't oil hit $40 yet?
    Mar 23, 2015. 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn increases Chesapeake Energy stake to nearly 11% [View news story]
    If there's one thing I've learned while on this planet - billionaires tend to not lose money over the long term.

    I bought right along side Carl not even knowing it, but just going with what seemed so obvious.
    Mar 23, 2015. 09:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean - Rig Moves Aren't Enough [View article]
    "The stock collapsed over 7%..."

    So I guess Friday's move of up almost 6% is "skyrocketing?"

    C'mon. Really? 7% is a collapse? I know you need the first paragraph to capture the reader, but perhaps you're trying a little too hard.
    Mar 21, 2015. 06:15 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean - Rig Moves Aren't Enough [View article]
    Easy answer: Because of how depressed their stock prices are, the levels they are trading at historically, the reality of the situation rather than momentum trading mentality, analysts are downgrading at 52 week lows, tons of bad news is priced in to the point where there is often plenty of overreaction, oil refuses to test the $40 level and we're now 9 months into oil's plunge, dollar's meteoric rise is due for a correction...

    I could continue but I think you get the point.

    Basically when you hear things like $20 oil, running out of capacity to store oil, and "could be this bad" and "extremely maybe this" and "the worst maybe that" it's, imo, the time to start buying.
    Mar 21, 2015. 06:11 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Transocean Is Not For The Faint At Heart Right Now [View article]
    I was under the impression that the stock gave back its gains more because of a downgrade from Sterne Agee than the scrapping announcement.

    Right now as the oil market is hurting it's the best time to reevaluate, restructure, and ultimately reposition your fleet once a recovery begins, however long that may be. When oil was near triple digits you couldn't do this as any disruption would cost you serious revenue. I view this action by RIG and DO as taking advantage of what the market gives you.
    Mar 20, 2015. 12:42 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean to book charge from rig disposal [View news story]
    Pretty much the exact type of insight one would get at Yahoo Finance boards.
    Mar 19, 2015. 06:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean: A Fleet Update Summary I Was Hoping To See [View article]
    Appreciate breaking down the press release.
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Continues To Bleed Profusely [View article]
    Looking at a 1 year chart, you can see very close correlation to the precipitous fall of oil and RIG's stock. Combined with unequivocally negative sentiment from the media and analysts, with over 33% of the stock short, and the stock trading at early to mid-90s prices, it stands to reason that once there's a glimmer of hope in any of a number of areas, the stock will rebound significantly. It's not a question of if, but when.

    As for oil, I find it laughable how there are so many "concerns" about over capacity when as it stands now, the U.S. has what, 30 days of standalone supply? Factor in fear with dollar strength and you can bet it won't remain like this. When the pendulum swings one way...
    Mar 17, 2015. 11:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy The Oil Majors Now That Oil Is At A 6-Year Low? [View article]
    It's called fear factor.

    Oil had no business being over $100 barrel, as such it has no business being $25 barrel.

    There will be a reversion back to the mean.
    Mar 16, 2015. 08:16 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy The Oil Majors Now That Oil Is At A 6-Year Low? [View article]
    Exactly what I'm doing. Not looking for a bottom, just looking at, now a 6 year low, and thinking about how violently the price plunged. Now, everyone who didn't predict what happened to oil, are now predicting even lower prices to take advantage of the momentum.

    So much fear...
    Mar 16, 2015. 04:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Continues To Bleed Profusely [View article]
    Do not agree at all. When oil reverts back to the mean, offshore oil companies will be at or near the front of the recovery.
    Mar 15, 2015. 04:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The oil price decline could get ugly again soon, analysts warn [View news story]
    @Sky

    Yes, those 2 are my energy plays so far. My outlook is at least 1 year then reevaluate my thesis barring any really significant price action.

    @vicad

    CHK is just another company trading at an 11 year low. I see value. Take this for what you will, a friend of my working in the oil industry out in West Texas told me CHK and others are just biding their time to open up the spigot once oil demand picks up and supply evens out. Again, not clear cut empirical evidence.
    Mar 13, 2015. 06:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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