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NetflixBear

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  • Netflix: Love The Company, Hate The Stock [View article]
    Do you remember what happened las time they tried to raise prices? IMO, there is a reason the big companies are not trying to compete with them - there is not much money to be made in this business. More profits = content owners will extract larger licensing fees. It is a great company that offers a great, cheap product. However, they have very little pricing power and it's share price is grossly overvalued.

    With that said, no reason to short until a catalyst occurs (Icahn selling, domestic sub growth ends, apple announces content deals, etc).
    Oct 21, 2013. 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Netflix Shares Might Attract A Hungry Buyer [View article]
    Netflix does not have many exclusive licenses, the main one being Epix which I believe expires in Sept. 2012. Internet consumers will migrate to whoever has the better content. $4-$5 billion on additional content spending would build a better library at a lower cost than spending $4-$5 billion on purchasing Netflix (Hastings ego wouldn't let him sell for this amount anyway) and then having to pay Netflix's current content obligations (many of which are duplicative of content Amazon is already paying for).

    If Netflix had significant exclusive, long-term contracts then I could see a purchase as a possibility. But that is not the case.
    Apr 26, 2012. 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Netflix Shares Might Attract A Hungry Buyer [View article]
    Why would amazon want to buy Netflix? They already have contracts for much of the same content that Netflix has. If they bought them, they would be paying twice for a big chunk of content. The money needed to purchase Netflix would be better spent on further content rights.
    Apr 25, 2012. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: With Hyper-Growth Gone, Investors Flee [View article]
    Couple things I noticed other than the points mainly being covered:
    1. They intend to continue global expansion in q4. That has to spook long term investors as it significantly increases the chance of another capital raise. They are already walking a fine line and if they take any hit on subscriber growth due to enhanced competition, they are going to have trouble paying existing content obligations just to maintain their current library,
    2. Unlike last quarter's letter, Reed does not state whether he will make any stock sales (i.e., Reed is going to start selling again).
    Apr 23, 2012. 10:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Needs To Change The Plan Or Change The Leadership [View article]
    Your missing the part where Apple (maybe Microsoft as well) would likely prevent Netflix from being installed on their devices if they added an a la carte option.

    Netflix is at the mercy of so many others in so many ways that management likely does not have much flexibility other than overspending for old content to stream.
    Apr 20, 2012. 08:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Note To Netflix: DVD Library Is An Asset For More Than Accounting [View article]
    IMO they knew they were quickly losing market share to CSTR and the revived blockbuster (for people who wanted newer releases quicker), so NFLX diverts investors attention by acting like they don't care about DVDs.

    Same thing they are doing with streaming. US market is pretty much saturated so they start going foreign as an excuse as to why they are losing money.
    Apr 13, 2012. 08:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: A Solid Winner In 2012 [View article]
    We get it, many people like the service. However, I have yet to see a bull article with any analysis of the numbers.
    Apr 3, 2012. 09:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Hastings Needs To Be More Like Zuckerberg [View article]
    Ha ha. First thing I pictured when I read the VF article was Rocco's profile picture saying "Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop writing about NFLX."

    Have enjoyed your articles and you truly helped me stay confident in my position last year. How about you agree to only write one article a month on NFLX? You know you will be itching when the next earnings report comes out.
    Feb 24, 2012. 09:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX -0.4%) says it's bringing back its $8/month DVD-only rental plan, cancelled following the short-lived introduction of Qwikster. While the move won't satisfy those still upset over Netflix's DVD/streaming price hike, it could please those who care more about the superior movie selection provided by Netflix's DVD library than the greater convenience of streaming.  [View news story]
    If anything, following this company's moves and blunders is highly entertaining.
    Feb 17, 2012. 12:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Media Stocks To Avoid, 3 To Consider [View article]
    Has Netflix ever reported streaming hours before? Seems very odd and maybe it is just my bear tinted glasses, but I see it as a big red flag. We know it is a popular service for some especially at the price. The bear argument is that Netflix has churned through its potential customer base and its $7.99 unlimited offering will not make them money due to high content costs.

    Why report streamed hours if it is not accompanied with an upward revision in subscriber numbers?
    Jan 4, 2012. 03:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix (NFLX) gains 1.9% after striking a deal with the BBC to include its shows in Netflix's streaming service for the U.K. and Ireland. The service, which will also feature content from Lionsgate and MGM, is set to launch early next year.  [View news story]
    Amazon get exclusive Sony content in UK day after Netflix gets non-exclusive BBC content. Wonder who Europeans will choose?
    Dec 21, 2011. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More On Netflix's 'Undisclosed SEC Investigation' [View article]
    Reading the letter, it says the request was made for any investigations after November 2010. It does not say the investigation started then. My understanding is that the SEC's response only implies that they are withholding document(s) responsive to the request, but does not give a date the documents were first sent to Netflix.
    Dec 15, 2011. 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Help Wanted: Need Bull To Defend Netflix, Inquire Within [View article]
    Are they just losing subscribers irrespective of the price increase? Resurrection of blockbuster with its newer releases by mail, poor streaming content, and pissed off customers. Competition only going to get worse very soon.
    Sep 15, 2011. 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Help Wanted: Need Bull To Defend Netflix, Inquire Within [View article]
    "It expects 800,000 fewer DVD-only subscribers and 200,000 fewer streaming-only members than it previously forecast" for a lower guidance of 1 million. But dvd/streaming combo subscriber guidance is the same? Doesn't make sense to me.

    Streaming only plan and dvd only plan prices did not change. Combo plans went up at least 60%.

    Am I missing something here?
    Sep 15, 2011. 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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