Rocktex's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/102601/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/61367-housing-market-tracker-macro-outlook-implies-recession?source=feed#comment-112978 112978
The following is not from my mouth, but souds like it:

"The debacle — which has rattled an already nervous banking sector and appeared to be the biggest-ever trading fraud by one person — has fueled a debate about risk management, with France's conservative president condemning speculation.

"If we can make profits in a matter of hours, we can also have huge losses," said President Nicolas Sarkozy during a visit to India. "We must stop with this system that has gone haywire and that has lost track of its aim."

"It appears to be time to ... inject a bit of common sense into all these systems," he added.

------ quoted from news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20...;_ylt=Ah2bfrSawWrHSQrT...]]> Sat, 26 Jan 2008 17:07:13 -0500
The following is not from my mouth, but souds like it:

"The debacle — which has rattled an already nervous banking sector and appeared to be the biggest-ever trading fraud by one person — has fueled a debate about risk management, with France's conservative president condemning speculation.

"If we can make profits in a matter of hours, we can also have huge losses," said President Nicolas Sarkozy during a visit to India. "We must stop with this system that has gone haywire and that has lost track of its aim."

"It appears to be time to ... inject a bit of common sense into all these systems," he added.

------ quoted from news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20...;_ylt=Ah2bfrSawWrHSQrT...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/61367-housing-market-tracker-macro-outlook-implies-recession?source=feed#comment-112603 112603
Brazil, an actual emerging market, had done a better job overhauling its economy. The United States looks like an "emerging market,” with large deficits and a weak currency.

I believe, USA is due to have a "system overhaul." We have to check our system, not mainly in economic parts. Time is changing so rapidly. How come we are still used to 230 year old political and legal parts without modernization.

Look at the current presidential election, many institutions such as cacusas or electorial college are not suitable in this modern world. If we just overhaul the economic or financial mechanism, it is not going to improve the fundamental functions put upon us.

Maybe, we could say it is just a call to a plumber when we ask Mr. BB of FED to cut interest rate in the chaos of the Wall. Nothing really cures the disease. They are minor repairs, not even a remodeling.

]]> Thu, 24 Jan 2008 10:21:32 -0500
Brazil, an actual emerging market, had done a better job overhauling its economy. The United States looks like an "emerging market,” with large deficits and a weak currency.

I believe, USA is due to have a "system overhaul." We have to check our system, not mainly in economic parts. Time is changing so rapidly. How come we are still used to 230 year old political and legal parts without modernization.

Look at the current presidential election, many institutions such as cacusas or electorial college are not suitable in this modern world. If we just overhaul the economic or financial mechanism, it is not going to improve the fundamental functions put upon us.

Maybe, we could say it is just a call to a plumber when we ask Mr. BB of FED to cut interest rate in the chaos of the Wall. Nothing really cures the disease. They are minor repairs, not even a remodeling.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/61138-three-notes-on-housing?source=feed#comment-112541 112541
Here is a piece of brief quoted from Judy's housing tracker, for your reference:

Home Prices Coming Down In Area
Arthur Broslat of Re/Max Palm Realty in Port Charlotte said there is a sizable local inventory of "relatively new" homes... selling for 40% of what they went for three years ago: "I'm showing a... home in North Port that was selling for $250,000 in 2005. Now, you can get it for $130,000 to $150,000." Jason Painter of Program Realty LLC in Port Charlotte, who specializes in Cape Haze real estate, said home prices there "are off a good 35%." (Sun Herald, Jan. 22nd)
]]> Wed, 23 Jan 2008 21:18:10 -0500
Here is a piece of brief quoted from Judy's housing tracker, for your reference:

Home Prices Coming Down In Area
Arthur Broslat of Re/Max Palm Realty in Port Charlotte said there is a sizable local inventory of "relatively new" homes... selling for 40% of what they went for three years ago: "I'm showing a... home in North Port that was selling for $250,000 in 2005. Now, you can get it for $130,000 to $150,000." Jason Painter of Program Realty LLC in Port Charlotte, who specializes in Cape Haze real estate, said home prices there "are off a good 35%." (Sun Herald, Jan. 22nd)
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/61138-three-notes-on-housing?source=feed#comment-112538 112538 A Funny World (16): Why ASK Lender's Mercy? Why Don't You Do Lender a Favor? activerain.com/blogsvi...

I believe, I am an optimist who always says "tomorrow will be better" as Annie sang. But to your 2nd note, I am unable to get your point cross. Housing prices go down 30% will be too much for you? Common, give me a break!

The price cut, more than 30% off the peak is here NOW in the most California areas. What do you expect where it shall go from the present point of time? If you anticipate now is the housing bottom and against the public sentiment, yes, you can say it will go North. But I doubt you were.

Certainly, you may have a good reason to say: “you get my idea wrong. I am using the year of 2000 as the base year.” Well, everybody can have different stats just as Zillow.com counts a forced “foreclosure” as a volunteer “sale” and included it into its area sale figures of normal transactions at its website. What can I say?

]]> Wed, 23 Jan 2008 21:07:02 -0500 A Funny World (16): Why ASK Lender's Mercy? Why Don't You Do Lender a Favor? activerain.com/blogsvi...

I believe, I am an optimist who always says "tomorrow will be better" as Annie sang. But to your 2nd note, I am unable to get your point cross. Housing prices go down 30% will be too much for you? Common, give me a break!

The price cut, more than 30% off the peak is here NOW in the most California areas. What do you expect where it shall go from the present point of time? If you anticipate now is the housing bottom and against the public sentiment, yes, you can say it will go North. But I doubt you were.

Certainly, you may have a good reason to say: “you get my idea wrong. I am using the year of 2000 as the base year.” Well, everybody can have different stats just as Zillow.com counts a forced “foreclosure” as a volunteer “sale” and included it into its area sale figures of normal transactions at its website. What can I say?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/60466-the-economics-of-second-liens?source=feed#comment-112426 112426
Felix is just pointing out a very real real real reality which is getting popular in our society or economy. To me, he has done nothing to imply his position.

15 months ago, I loaned one of my credit cards to my sister-in-law. By using mine, her balance of $17,000 was fully transferred into mine at 3.99% interest. She would pay about $450, instead of almost $1,800 a month to her own. She continued to directly pay my credit card banker and she had appreciated my help until 3 months ago.

Now she is kind of regret to ask help from me when I read her words in between. She wished she could know the "smart" broker ( or the right approach) earlier who negotiated with her credit card creditors for her. She got a good deal to pay 10 cents on a dollar, paid off all the balance remaining on her credit cards and she paid mine off.

I have no idea what's going on for her to easily wipe out all credit debt and have a fresh new start. All I know is, since then, my wife has told me 3 times:
"What kind of world is this? I kept coaching my young sister to save. She should stop over-spending. She and her 3 daughters went to have a professional hair-stylist every week and has all kinds of impulsive purchases. I save my money to have mine and my daughters washing our hairs at home by ourselves. I don’t buy such those fancy, junky computer stuffs for my daughter. See, I didn’t buy my daughter a ipod when their 3 daughters have updated to the newest many times. Now my sister is joking at me and says: I am owing nothing now and you still owe a banker a mortgage. Why you have to save? Why don’t you go out to my hair-stylist as we did. When you have problem, you go to see my programmer. I can‘t stand her bragging her wisdom!"

Great systems we have created nowadays! I have to admit that time is changing and I don’t know most of things or see the logics behind them.


]]> Wed, 23 Jan 2008 12:29:46 -0500
Felix is just pointing out a very real real real reality which is getting popular in our society or economy. To me, he has done nothing to imply his position.

15 months ago, I loaned one of my credit cards to my sister-in-law. By using mine, her balance of $17,000 was fully transferred into mine at 3.99% interest. She would pay about $450, instead of almost $1,800 a month to her own. She continued to directly pay my credit card banker and she had appreciated my help until 3 months ago.

Now she is kind of regret to ask help from me when I read her words in between. She wished she could know the "smart" broker ( or the right approach) earlier who negotiated with her credit card creditors for her. She got a good deal to pay 10 cents on a dollar, paid off all the balance remaining on her credit cards and she paid mine off.

I have no idea what's going on for her to easily wipe out all credit debt and have a fresh new start. All I know is, since then, my wife has told me 3 times:
"What kind of world is this? I kept coaching my young sister to save. She should stop over-spending. She and her 3 daughters went to have a professional hair-stylist every week and has all kinds of impulsive purchases. I save my money to have mine and my daughters washing our hairs at home by ourselves. I don’t buy such those fancy, junky computer stuffs for my daughter. See, I didn’t buy my daughter a ipod when their 3 daughters have updated to the newest many times. Now my sister is joking at me and says: I am owing nothing now and you still owe a banker a mortgage. Why you have to save? Why don’t you go out to my hair-stylist as we did. When you have problem, you go to see my programmer. I can‘t stand her bragging her wisdom!"

Great systems we have created nowadays! I have to admit that time is changing and I don’t know most of things or see the logics behind them.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/60863-ziprealty-challenging-times-but?source=feed#comment-112323 112323
I am not challenging your position in favor of Ziprealty. But your observation seems not so accurate. By comparison, I will say you are using so-called "gross multifier," in real estate jargon, to evaluate an income property purchase. I believe it would be much safer to use “net multifier”

Agent growth means growth of quantity or market share. It is good to be able to cover more territories. It maybe able to have more utilization of facilities to reduce unit costs. In this perspective, it will be safe for me to say Ziprealty is in a better position than Redfi. Redfi's San Diego operation can NOT even find a local agent in San Gabriel valley, CA to process a "make an offer" submission to get more revenue. However, it keeps sending its update to a prospect as a Santa, while there is nothing for Redfi to gain in the immediate future, except a good public image.

Ziprealty has better coverage, but that does not guarantee better quality service will be given. Certainly, I have no idea to know the connection between its growth and profit growth. Generally both move to the same direction, but it is not always the case. Starbuck gave us a good example showing that both can go different directions in its Q32007.

I won't buy Zip realty if I were Warren Buffet.
]]> Tue, 22 Jan 2008 21:47:56 -0500
I am not challenging your position in favor of Ziprealty. But your observation seems not so accurate. By comparison, I will say you are using so-called "gross multifier," in real estate jargon, to evaluate an income property purchase. I believe it would be much safer to use “net multifier”

Agent growth means growth of quantity or market share. It is good to be able to cover more territories. It maybe able to have more utilization of facilities to reduce unit costs. In this perspective, it will be safe for me to say Ziprealty is in a better position than Redfi. Redfi's San Diego operation can NOT even find a local agent in San Gabriel valley, CA to process a "make an offer" submission to get more revenue. However, it keeps sending its update to a prospect as a Santa, while there is nothing for Redfi to gain in the immediate future, except a good public image.

Ziprealty has better coverage, but that does not guarantee better quality service will be given. Certainly, I have no idea to know the connection between its growth and profit growth. Generally both move to the same direction, but it is not always the case. Starbuck gave us a good example showing that both can go different directions in its Q32007.

I won't buy Zip realty if I were Warren Buffet.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/60466-the-economics-of-second-liens?source=feed#comment-111105 111105 A guy who really knows the tricks of ABS mechanism!
Thanks for updating my understanding on the current discount rate on junior liens.]]> Thu, 17 Jan 2008 11:55:36 -0500 A guy who really knows the tricks of ABS mechanism!
Thanks for updating my understanding on the current discount rate on junior liens.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/59209-indymac-bancorp-time-to-take-reos-online?source=feed#comment-108873 108873 Most content of the article are initially written for a professional real estate website. To better understand those professional jargons, you may go to the website or my blog at: activerain.com/blogs/r....

There are basically 3 stages in a foreclosure.
The 1st one is called NOD (Notice of Default) that means something real and serious starts legally.

The 2nd is called NOTS (or NOT in short) that means a date of foreclosure is scheduled legally.

A property in the above two stages are called "pre-foreclosure" property.

The 3rd is a foreclosure sale by itself. There is a foreclosure minimum bid amount for the sale. If nobody wants buy the subject property for that amount, there is no way for you to bargain it down, the property will be struck off and the title to the property is legally transfered to a lender at that instant. Of course, you can make a deal with the lender at the auction site right after the auction is completed. You may get less, but it depends the situation.

Once the foreclosed property belongs to a bank or lender, it is called a "REO" (real estate owned) by the general public. In fact, it is not correct, it shall be called "OREO" (other real estate owned) since some banks DO own some properties for its daily business operation.

Hope I make it clear. In this case, if someone is willing to raise his hand to pay $380K (the minimum bid for foreclosure sale), he will get and own the property, not the lender. The property will not be called a REO.

Since nobody wants to pay that price of $380K, the lender has to take it back as a REO and try to sell it by a more reasonable price. Sometimes, the asking price will be even higher than the minimum bid, after a 2nd junior lien or other liens are wipe out.
]]> Tue, 08 Jan 2008 00:04:08 -0500 Most content of the article are initially written for a professional real estate website. To better understand those professional jargons, you may go to the website or my blog at: activerain.com/blogs/r....

There are basically 3 stages in a foreclosure.
The 1st one is called NOD (Notice of Default) that means something real and serious starts legally.

The 2nd is called NOTS (or NOT in short) that means a date of foreclosure is scheduled legally.

A property in the above two stages are called "pre-foreclosure" property.

The 3rd is a foreclosure sale by itself. There is a foreclosure minimum bid amount for the sale. If nobody wants buy the subject property for that amount, there is no way for you to bargain it down, the property will be struck off and the title to the property is legally transfered to a lender at that instant. Of course, you can make a deal with the lender at the auction site right after the auction is completed. You may get less, but it depends the situation.

Once the foreclosed property belongs to a bank or lender, it is called a "REO" (real estate owned) by the general public. In fact, it is not correct, it shall be called "OREO" (other real estate owned) since some banks DO own some properties for its daily business operation.

Hope I make it clear. In this case, if someone is willing to raise his hand to pay $380K (the minimum bid for foreclosure sale), he will get and own the property, not the lender. The property will not be called a REO.

Since nobody wants to pay that price of $380K, the lender has to take it back as a REO and try to sell it by a more reasonable price. Sometimes, the asking price will be even higher than the minimum bid, after a 2nd junior lien or other liens are wipe out.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58989-concerning-the-case-shiller-housing-index?source=feed#comment-108251 108251
As an investor, I have been questioning if Case Shiller price index is a piece of junk for a long time. Please see my article at activerain.com/blogsvi...

I would like to write an article to pinpoint the uselessness of the Index. I've check how the Shiller Index collect its data as you did and roughly had the same position as you have. But, there is one thing stop me from writing. I have to make it very sure that what Dr. Shiller means when he use the term "arm-length" transaction. Also, I have to clarify what a "transaction of sale" means since so many real estate websites such as Zillow.com, Realty Trac or Trulia.com have different criterias to include a "sale."
Can you be kind enough to tell me that NAR considers a forced "foreclosure" as a "sale" transaction as Zillow.com did?
Thank you very much. ]]> Fri, 04 Jan 2008 12:18:46 -0500
As an investor, I have been questioning if Case Shiller price index is a piece of junk for a long time. Please see my article at activerain.com/blogsvi...

I would like to write an article to pinpoint the uselessness of the Index. I've check how the Shiller Index collect its data as you did and roughly had the same position as you have. But, there is one thing stop me from writing. I have to make it very sure that what Dr. Shiller means when he use the term "arm-length" transaction. Also, I have to clarify what a "transaction of sale" means since so many real estate websites such as Zillow.com, Realty Trac or Trulia.com have different criterias to include a "sale."
Can you be kind enough to tell me that NAR considers a forced "foreclosure" as a "sale" transaction as Zillow.com did?
Thank you very much. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58692-don-t-expect-a-housing-bottom-until-late-2009?source=feed#comment-107471 107471 People's need is there. But need has to be converted into a demand. The only way is to make housing affordable and reasonable.

After asking some agents in California who I don't know before to present my all cash offers, it seems to me that they don't know how to help and advise lenders to dispose those huge REO inventory in this downhill. They just sit and wait for housing price to "naturally" fall.

In this situation with potential buyer's sentiment, I believe we can't see the bottom until 2009 as you said. No need to read all the distort interpretation from those media gurus if you know the basics of economy.
]]> Mon, 31 Dec 2007 09:26:55 -0500 People's need is there. But need has to be converted into a demand. The only way is to make housing affordable and reasonable.

After asking some agents in California who I don't know before to present my all cash offers, it seems to me that they don't know how to help and advise lenders to dispose those huge REO inventory in this downhill. They just sit and wait for housing price to "naturally" fall.

In this situation with potential buyer's sentiment, I believe we can't see the bottom until 2009 as you said. No need to read all the distort interpretation from those media gurus if you know the basics of economy.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58228-are-we-having-a-housing-crisis-dj-vu?source=feed#comment-107108 107108
Good question?

Look at the guidlines for "Contribute to Seeking Alpha":

If you have an informed opinion on a U.S.-traded stock or ETF that you want to share with the Seeking Alpha community, we'd like to publish it.....To submit your article, first read the guidelines to the right:

1. Be specific :
Write about a particular stock or ETF, not general market commentary.

......

Hope you know now why some articles are so narrow-minded. Because they are SA's favors to be "specific" to a "particular" perspective.

That's why there is nothing like you said. Some are with "no substance", only trivia interpretation. SA are trying to be an expert or specialist so much that makes them too close to a tree to see the forest.

After I tried to contribute some articles to return the favor from SA, I gave up my kindness. I know mine is not going to be published because my content is not "specific" and with a broader perspective.

Anyway, I still thank SA and read its collections, particularly Judy's "housing market tracker" that saves me a lot of time. She is a wonderful secretary help me to see the general market situation.

Well, We should thank for other's narrow-sided or near-sighted opinion, too. All we have to do is to be cautious and objective with our reasoning power and macroeconomic knowledge like you jsut did as the above.

They can feed anything and call it "expert viewpoints" to create a market psyche. We can still be benefited from that market sentiment if we are a generalist and keep a cool judgement and clear eyes to see some irrational exuberance coming up.

Recently the Wall Street created a "credit crunch" smoke gun for some people to make money. That's great! Thank you for the great jobs contributed by those specialists like Cramer.

Just sit, relax and laugh at the SMARTEST MBA Wall street guys losing their paper money and holding an empty bag in the crisis. Isn't it great fun?
]]> Thu, 27 Dec 2007 17:37:09 -0500
Good question?

Look at the guidlines for "Contribute to Seeking Alpha":

If you have an informed opinion on a U.S.-traded stock or ETF that you want to share with the Seeking Alpha community, we'd like to publish it.....To submit your article, first read the guidelines to the right:

1. Be specific :
Write about a particular stock or ETF, not general market commentary.

......

Hope you know now why some articles are so narrow-minded. Because they are SA's favors to be "specific" to a "particular" perspective.

That's why there is nothing like you said. Some are with "no substance", only trivia interpretation. SA are trying to be an expert or specialist so much that makes them too close to a tree to see the forest.

After I tried to contribute some articles to return the favor from SA, I gave up my kindness. I know mine is not going to be published because my content is not "specific" and with a broader perspective.

Anyway, I still thank SA and read its collections, particularly Judy's "housing market tracker" that saves me a lot of time. She is a wonderful secretary help me to see the general market situation.

Well, We should thank for other's narrow-sided or near-sighted opinion, too. All we have to do is to be cautious and objective with our reasoning power and macroeconomic knowledge like you jsut did as the above.

They can feed anything and call it "expert viewpoints" to create a market psyche. We can still be benefited from that market sentiment if we are a generalist and keep a cool judgement and clear eyes to see some irrational exuberance coming up.

Recently the Wall Street created a "credit crunch" smoke gun for some people to make money. That's great! Thank you for the great jobs contributed by those specialists like Cramer.

Just sit, relax and laugh at the SMARTEST MBA Wall street guys losing their paper money and holding an empty bag in the crisis. Isn't it great fun?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58294-housing-market-tracker-macro-review?source=feed#comment-106929 106929
I agree with Sawa that it is a local problem. But I disagree that it can't not be solved locally. NO, WE ARE NOT HOPELESS!

It's an emergency, we have to do a CPR job as a fire-engine people does. No time to put our energy in theory, let us do something to help survival and solve the miserables first. Timing is important since we can not sit and talk all day long until we find out ALL the facts as said by Mark Haroldsen.


All I care is do the right thing to effectively help people stay at his home and make a good return to a foundation shareholders.

Can we pool up our fund together as our ancestors put up their "Chit Fund" to help?

For a full detail, please read my article: A Funny World (17): Your Tent City? Or My Tear City? activerain.com/blogsvi...







]]> Wed, 26 Dec 2007 12:55:05 -0500
I agree with Sawa that it is a local problem. But I disagree that it can't not be solved locally. NO, WE ARE NOT HOPELESS!

It's an emergency, we have to do a CPR job as a fire-engine people does. No time to put our energy in theory, let us do something to help survival and solve the miserables first. Timing is important since we can not sit and talk all day long until we find out ALL the facts as said by Mark Haroldsen.


All I care is do the right thing to effectively help people stay at his home and make a good return to a foundation shareholders.

Can we pool up our fund together as our ancestors put up their "Chit Fund" to help?

For a full detail, please read my article: A Funny World (17): Your Tent City? Or My Tear City? activerain.com/blogsvi...







]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58228-are-we-having-a-housing-crisis-dj-vu?source=feed#comment-106894 106894 activerain.com/blogsvi...

In my blog, people start to argue about what the cause: socialism or individualism. No need to get involved in those theories such as "government involvement" or "private capitalist market."
It's an emergency, we have to do a job as a fire-engine people does. No time to put our energy in theory, let us do something to solve it first. Timing is important since we can not sit and talk until we find out ALL the facts.
All I care is to help people stay at his home and make a good return to a foundation shareholders.

p.s. I don't have to touch your money. Or you can follow my business plan and do it by yourself as long as you can help our people. ]]> Wed, 26 Dec 2007 10:03:32 -0500 activerain.com/blogsvi...

In my blog, people start to argue about what the cause: socialism or individualism. No need to get involved in those theories such as "government involvement" or "private capitalist market."
It's an emergency, we have to do a job as a fire-engine people does. No time to put our energy in theory, let us do something to solve it first. Timing is important since we can not sit and talk until we find out ALL the facts.
All I care is to help people stay at his home and make a good return to a foundation shareholders.

p.s. I don't have to touch your money. Or you can follow my business plan and do it by yourself as long as you can help our people. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58228-are-we-having-a-housing-crisis-dj-vu?source=feed#comment-106851 106851
Indeed, WakeUp deserves to ask the question I always have in my mind: "What the insanity is doing onto this great country?"

I don't know what all the politicans are going to deal with the "shortage" of police power when a reduction of property tax revenue is expected, even Cali Governor declared a "fiscal emergency."
But based on my experience, I do know it is NOT going to work.

All I think these days is it is really a piece of cake for me to solve the problem in Ontario if I have a fundation with $2 million start-up capital. At least, the fundation is able to help reduce the distress very quickly and efficiently. No lip service or negative GNP production at all.

The fundation's goal is working at keeping the owners stay at their homes, not to leave. The goal is to get the owners a new loan amount and monthly payment they can work with without interest rate cut or freeze to create a negative amortization later. And at the same time this capital seed money is getting at least $12% return for its investors in the first year.
Can we do that? What kind of business plan I have to cure the problem? Try me, if you have $2 mil.
]]> Tue, 25 Dec 2007 19:03:25 -0500
Indeed, WakeUp deserves to ask the question I always have in my mind: "What the insanity is doing onto this great country?"

I don't know what all the politicans are going to deal with the "shortage" of police power when a reduction of property tax revenue is expected, even Cali Governor declared a "fiscal emergency."
But based on my experience, I do know it is NOT going to work.

All I think these days is it is really a piece of cake for me to solve the problem in Ontario if I have a fundation with $2 million start-up capital. At least, the fundation is able to help reduce the distress very quickly and efficiently. No lip service or negative GNP production at all.

The fundation's goal is working at keeping the owners stay at their homes, not to leave. The goal is to get the owners a new loan amount and monthly payment they can work with without interest rate cut or freeze to create a negative amortization later. And at the same time this capital seed money is getting at least $12% return for its investors in the first year.
Can we do that? What kind of business plan I have to cure the problem? Try me, if you have $2 mil.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/54961-11-places-to-find-foreclosed-real-estate?source=feed#comment-106517 106517 Don't be so rude, please. Here are just 11 links. Nothing expressed any opinion on the writer.

To Stockerblog:
After checking USB's REO site, It is confirmed that they don't really release All the REO inventory as those bygones days. For public image? For self protection? All I know is they don't treat the website as an effective marketing tool in their mind.

Say there is only one REO listing in California. Do you believe that? I can give you more than 10 pieces of REO USB has now.
As I know, there is a website that will give you 50% REO lenders' link. ]]> Sat, 22 Dec 2007 15:39:28 -0500 Don't be so rude, please. Here are just 11 links. Nothing expressed any opinion on the writer.

To Stockerblog:
After checking USB's REO site, It is confirmed that they don't really release All the REO inventory as those bygones days. For public image? For self protection? All I know is they don't treat the website as an effective marketing tool in their mind.

Say there is only one REO listing in California. Do you believe that? I can give you more than 10 pieces of REO USB has now.
As I know, there is a website that will give you 50% REO lenders' link. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58015-housing-market-tracker-sales-prices-and-sentiment-review?source=feed#comment-106497 106497
Value is a function of "materials, labor, sentiment." Price has been flucturated on those factors. As I believed, there is a sign that "loan freeze" shows phased out. Now comes the phase II. Everyone has different perspective on the market psyche, let alone other judgement on price or value.

I am so happy and confident on the uptrend of buyer's sentiment in American real estate market. Enclosed herewith is a link of my further expression on this topic in a more broad perspective. If you are interested, please click here: A Funny World (15): Bonuses or Bearshit? activerain.com/blogsvi...
]]> Sat, 22 Dec 2007 13:23:25 -0500
Value is a function of "materials, labor, sentiment." Price has been flucturated on those factors. As I believed, there is a sign that "loan freeze" shows phased out. Now comes the phase II. Everyone has different perspective on the market psyche, let alone other judgement on price or value.

I am so happy and confident on the uptrend of buyer's sentiment in American real estate market. Enclosed herewith is a link of my further expression on this topic in a more broad perspective. If you are interested, please click here: A Funny World (15): Bonuses or Bearshit? activerain.com/blogsvi...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58015-housing-market-tracker-sales-prices-and-sentiment-review?source=feed#comment-106484 106484
That's absolutely right! I do real estate in between California and Texas. I can see the BIG and Wide gaps in them as we said "Nobody is the same, everyone is different."

There is a saying that 4 stages exist in a specific market, exactly like 4 seasons: Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter. From my recent dealings in Texas, Texas is in Spring while California a Fall.

In Texas, look everywhere to see "constructive" signs such as new freeways or their expansion. It means Texas is still growing. Where you can see that in California? I have the feeling that California is too ripe, if not stopping growth.

As we are told, to see the growth path and go in advance before others get there is the best way to make money in real estate. Well, what you will do if you have to make choice between a growing one and a fully developed one?
]]> Sat, 22 Dec 2007 10:42:07 -0500
That's absolutely right! I do real estate in between California and Texas. I can see the BIG and Wide gaps in them as we said "Nobody is the same, everyone is different."

There is a saying that 4 stages exist in a specific market, exactly like 4 seasons: Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter. From my recent dealings in Texas, Texas is in Spring while California a Fall.

In Texas, look everywhere to see "constructive" signs such as new freeways or their expansion. It means Texas is still growing. Where you can see that in California? I have the feeling that California is too ripe, if not stopping growth.

As we are told, to see the growth path and go in advance before others get there is the best way to make money in real estate. Well, what you will do if you have to make choice between a growing one and a fully developed one?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57619-housing-market-tracker-foreclosure-data-review?source=feed#comment-106008 106008
It is very interesting that it says: "Few are calling the end of the credit crunch just yet, though." Hmmmm..., sounds funny to make me look like the only idiot to say the soap show is all over before Madlen Read put out the article, right?



Stocks Get a Boost From ECB Movehttp://biz.yahoo.c...

Tuesday December 18, 5:59 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer

Stocks Rise in Volatile Trading As ECB Lends $500B; Goldman, Best Buy Post Gains
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks rose Tuesday after investors found solace in the European Central Bank's $500 billion loan issuance, but the possibility of recession in 2008 made for a back-and-forth session.

The ECB's massive 16-day tender supported the idea that the world's central banks are working to revive demand in struggling areas of the credit market. The Bank of England also said it will offer additional reserves to lenders Tuesday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Monday auctioned off $20 billion in 28-day credit.

Few are calling the end of the credit crunch just yet, though, and the market's seesaw movements on Tuesday reflected its uncertainty. Alongside U.S. government data showing that new home construction dropped in November to its lowest rate in more than 16 years, the central banks' actions had a hard time galvanizing a market that remains anxious that the economy has further to fall.

]]> Tue, 18 Dec 2007 23:45:39 -0500
It is very interesting that it says: "Few are calling the end of the credit crunch just yet, though." Hmmmm..., sounds funny to make me look like the only idiot to say the soap show is all over before Madlen Read put out the article, right?



Stocks Get a Boost From ECB Movehttp://biz.yahoo.c...

Tuesday December 18, 5:59 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer

Stocks Rise in Volatile Trading As ECB Lends $500B; Goldman, Best Buy Post Gains
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks rose Tuesday after investors found solace in the European Central Bank's $500 billion loan issuance, but the possibility of recession in 2008 made for a back-and-forth session.

The ECB's massive 16-day tender supported the idea that the world's central banks are working to revive demand in struggling areas of the credit market. The Bank of England also said it will offer additional reserves to lenders Tuesday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Monday auctioned off $20 billion in 28-day credit.

Few are calling the end of the credit crunch just yet, though, and the market's seesaw movements on Tuesday reflected its uncertainty. Alongside U.S. government data showing that new home construction dropped in November to its lowest rate in more than 16 years, the central banks' actions had a hard time galvanizing a market that remains anxious that the economy has further to fall.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57619-housing-market-tracker-foreclosure-data-review?source=feed#comment-105960 105960 A Funny World (14): Sun Goes Up? Or Not? activerain.com/blogsvi...]]> Tue, 18 Dec 2007 17:15:11 -0500 A Funny World (14): Sun Goes Up? Or Not? activerain.com/blogsvi...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57619-housing-market-tracker-foreclosure-data-review?source=feed#comment-105945 105945 Mortgage financials have new sprouts coming up.
Watch out! Don't step on it.
Seems nothing is so big a deal we USA people are unable to handle yet!]]> Tue, 18 Dec 2007 15:52:05 -0500 Mortgage financials have new sprouts coming up.
Watch out! Don't step on it.
Seems nothing is so big a deal we USA people are unable to handle yet!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57318-buffett-on-the-dollar-our-present-over-consumption-is-unsustainable?source=feed#comment-105599 105599 activerain.com/blogsvi...]]> Sun, 16 Dec 2007 16:14:06 -0500 activerain.com/blogsvi...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57318-buffett-on-the-dollar-our-present-over-consumption-is-unsustainable?source=feed#comment-105583 105583 Warren and Hillary are just a political hysteric.


Ouch, don't get me wrong. I am not with GWB all-heartedly too.
But look at what they said in the article carefully. Don't you think their arguments are self-defeating?

Well, I will say Hillary is right to ask us surrender our kid's education to a STATE if she is with ancient country "Sparta" where people were ordered to send kids to a state-run kindergarten after they were borne. Well, I am a Athenian who wants to create a ecology where at least one of parents educate children as a lifetime chance of sweet and valuable memory as Warren described.

But ask Warren: "Do we give our people that chance?" When our society is transforming into a "double income household" that our ancestors never heard. We even see some couple working 4-5 partime jobs to bring in bread for the family. The married couple even hardly see each other in the house. How can they take care of their kids except sending them to other's preschool or public school?

How can they be so hypocrisy? They support "death penalty" when they know they can fully use the statue que to "avoid" the tax and the poor is unable to do that. Situation is just as Warren said he only pays 17% tax while the average Joe has to pay more than 40% tax.

Our society has more wealth disparity as Warren mentioned that the rich increased 300 or more wealth at the expense of the poor working classes whose wage increase only 80%.

Gee! What a funny world for those VIP to play with the poor VSP as their slaves who has no time to think or even to vote!


]]> Sun, 16 Dec 2007 14:11:39 -0500 Warren and Hillary are just a political hysteric.


Ouch, don't get me wrong. I am not with GWB all-heartedly too.
But look at what they said in the article carefully. Don't you think their arguments are self-defeating?

Well, I will say Hillary is right to ask us surrender our kid's education to a STATE if she is with ancient country "Sparta" where people were ordered to send kids to a state-run kindergarten after they were borne. Well, I am a Athenian who wants to create a ecology where at least one of parents educate children as a lifetime chance of sweet and valuable memory as Warren described.

But ask Warren: "Do we give our people that chance?" When our society is transforming into a "double income household" that our ancestors never heard. We even see some couple working 4-5 partime jobs to bring in bread for the family. The married couple even hardly see each other in the house. How can they take care of their kids except sending them to other's preschool or public school?

How can they be so hypocrisy? They support "death penalty" when they know they can fully use the statue que to "avoid" the tax and the poor is unable to do that. Situation is just as Warren said he only pays 17% tax while the average Joe has to pay more than 40% tax.

Our society has more wealth disparity as Warren mentioned that the rich increased 300 or more wealth at the expense of the poor working classes whose wage increase only 80%.

Gee! What a funny world for those VIP to play with the poor VSP as their slaves who has no time to think or even to vote!


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57323-look-what-they-re-saying-about-the-housing-market?source=feed#comment-105531 105531
Yes, you still can take out a home equity loan today at the price of your house that you BOUGHT 5 YEARS AGO.

To a lot of homeowner such as my father-in-law who bought a REO for $230K 10 years ago house, I advised them to sell, make profit and move on when they can easily sell their house for $800K.

They just looked at me and said: "No, it is my home. I don't sell it no matter what."

To them, housing price IS NOT CHANGED. No falling down, No going up. Housing bubble is irrelative, Period.

]]> Sun, 16 Dec 2007 01:43:39 -0500
Yes, you still can take out a home equity loan today at the price of your house that you BOUGHT 5 YEARS AGO.

To a lot of homeowner such as my father-in-law who bought a REO for $230K 10 years ago house, I advised them to sell, make profit and move on when they can easily sell their house for $800K.

They just looked at me and said: "No, it is my home. I don't sell it no matter what."

To them, housing price IS NOT CHANGED. No falling down, No going up. Housing bubble is irrelative, Period.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/39518-indymac-not-just-another-subprime-mortgage-lender?source=feed#comment-105499 105499 The writer should be a lot richer!
Thank you for your insight. I am on board IMB.]]> Sat, 15 Dec 2007 15:05:28 -0500 The writer should be a lot richer!
Thank you for your insight. I am on board IMB.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57323-look-what-they-re-saying-about-the-housing-market?source=feed#comment-105360 105360
***** ***** ******
So much fun I have in reading this article.

Yes, it does look funny. About 95% home owners didn't sell their houses, right? Literally I can say: nothing has happen to them, except some property tax hike in some area (not in Cali since there is a Prop. 13). They are "inactive" factors in the market. And house price will fluctuate ONLY by those "active ingredients."

No, their equity is shrinking is a life fact. But look the other way, "equity" is a imaginery thing, if not a phony one. It has never been a real "cash" until it is "realized" ("sold and move on", in real estate terms).

Asset-based security market is based on a false assumption: all the houses increased its value when, in fact, a small part (5%) of the assets increased its price. Gee, our mortgage lenders have been using the assumption or "appraisal module" to make its decision to lend.

It sounds like the housing market is really a "perfect market." But it is NOT the reality. Let's suppose ALL the home owners are willing to sell at the same time. The market house price will be decided by "Supply & Demand" principle. 19 times the supply, what's going to change the demand & price. You get the answer and you will see what's happening in your mind.

Have difficulty to imagine? Just look at what happened to British big bank North Rock a month ago. It is called "banking run."

My point is clear. It is true that "Housing prices aren't falling." I know you don't believe me, but you will agree with me if those guys use "Housing real value aren't falling," instead of "housing price."

Gee! what is "real value" I am talking about? Hmmm! Sounds like "real purchasing power" of your money, not the dollare face value?

]]> Fri, 14 Dec 2007 13:09:52 -0500
***** ***** ******
So much fun I have in reading this article.

Yes, it does look funny. About 95% home owners didn't sell their houses, right? Literally I can say: nothing has happen to them, except some property tax hike in some area (not in Cali since there is a Prop. 13). They are "inactive" factors in the market. And house price will fluctuate ONLY by those "active ingredients."

No, their equity is shrinking is a life fact. But look the other way, "equity" is a imaginery thing, if not a phony one. It has never been a real "cash" until it is "realized" ("sold and move on", in real estate terms).

Asset-based security market is based on a false assumption: all the houses increased its value when, in fact, a small part (5%) of the assets increased its price. Gee, our mortgage lenders have been using the assumption or "appraisal module" to make its decision to lend.

It sounds like the housing market is really a "perfect market." But it is NOT the reality. Let's suppose ALL the home owners are willing to sell at the same time. The market house price will be decided by "Supply & Demand" principle. 19 times the supply, what's going to change the demand & price. You get the answer and you will see what's happening in your mind.

Have difficulty to imagine? Just look at what happened to British big bank North Rock a month ago. It is called "banking run."

My point is clear. It is true that "Housing prices aren't falling." I know you don't believe me, but you will agree with me if those guys use "Housing real value aren't falling," instead of "housing price."

Gee! what is "real value" I am talking about? Hmmm! Sounds like "real purchasing power" of your money, not the dollare face value?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57287-mgic-investment-turns-conservative?source=feed#comment-105349 105349 It means a more prudent insurance policy after a earthquake took place in Cali, right?
It means nothing to the financials, except a warming or new guideline to safeguard nothing like "subprime loan" can happen again, even FED infuse more credit liquidity into the market. Am I right?]]> Fri, 14 Dec 2007 12:37:18 -0500 It means a more prudent insurance policy after a earthquake took place in Cali, right?
It means nothing to the financials, except a warming or new guideline to safeguard nothing like "subprime loan" can happen again, even FED infuse more credit liquidity into the market. Am I right?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/56915-the-best-and-worst-performers-since-last-rate-cut?source=feed#comment-105345 105345
Please don't be so harsh on the writers. They just use "rate cut" as a timeframe to measure performance during the period of time. There simply no any implication exists.


To Bespoke,

Thank you for your post. It helps a lot to give me the guts needed!

I have never bought any stock even I read a lot of stock investment books and materials. I am concentrating myself in real estate. No distrace!

Since 6 months ago, I am spending more time and energy into stock markets. The more I collect, the more I desire to buy. One month ago, I have a very strong desire to buy two housing stocks. But I didn't do anything and stayed on the sideline. It costs me a lot of opportunity profit!

So, after reading another article and this article, I decide firmly that I am going to pick up one particular stock and invest. I know it is not the right timing to get into it at this moment (there is some uncertainty involved). This stock will go down further to the bottom until mid-January 2008. But what a whack, we can't expect to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest all the times, right?

If the worse happens, it still would not cost me a hand or leg. So I am ready to do it. Scary, it will be the first time I am going to swim with those big sharks.

Well, I will let you know what's my pick and the result.

]]> Fri, 14 Dec 2007 12:19:18 -0500
Please don't be so harsh on the writers. They just use "rate cut" as a timeframe to measure performance during the period of time. There simply no any implication exists.


To Bespoke,

Thank you for your post. It helps a lot to give me the guts needed!

I have never bought any stock even I read a lot of stock investment books and materials. I am concentrating myself in real estate. No distrace!

Since 6 months ago, I am spending more time and energy into stock markets. The more I collect, the more I desire to buy. One month ago, I have a very strong desire to buy two housing stocks. But I didn't do anything and stayed on the sideline. It costs me a lot of opportunity profit!

So, after reading another article and this article, I decide firmly that I am going to pick up one particular stock and invest. I know it is not the right timing to get into it at this moment (there is some uncertainty involved). This stock will go down further to the bottom until mid-January 2008. But what a whack, we can't expect to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest all the times, right?

If the worse happens, it still would not cost me a hand or leg. So I am ready to do it. Scary, it will be the first time I am going to swim with those big sharks.

Well, I will let you know what's my pick and the result.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57053-greenspan-large-losses-loom?source=feed#comment-105250 105250
Gee! He is really a genius and finally gives us his real words and the real medicine.
]]> Thu, 13 Dec 2007 18:16:19 -0500
Gee! He is really a genius and finally gives us his real words and the real medicine.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57161-wednesday-s-fed-action-perfect-helpful-to-housing?source=feed#comment-105248 105248 DJIA 13517.96 0.33%;
Nasdaq 2668.49 -0.10%
S&P 500 1488.41 0.12%
Russel 2000 769.46 -0.29%

Two GSE's stocks even up! So there is no way for me to say I was right at my previous saying: One word "DOWN", right?

Different indice has different sample. What is it here we are talking about? Non-GSE financing institutions and the housing sector!

What's right or wrong? Please figure it out by yourself.
]]> Thu, 13 Dec 2007 18:03:08 -0500 DJIA 13517.96 0.33%;
Nasdaq 2668.49 -0.10%
S&P 500 1488.41 0.12%
Russel 2000 769.46 -0.29%

Two GSE's stocks even up! So there is no way for me to say I was right at my previous saying: One word "DOWN", right?

Different indice has different sample. What is it here we are talking about? Non-GSE financing institutions and the housing sector!

What's right or wrong? Please figure it out by yourself.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57161-wednesday-s-fed-action-perfect-helpful-to-housing?source=feed#comment-105199 105199
Then, there is more money supply, more liquidity. It shoud be interpreded as a good news, right?

But how come all the stock markets drop so far? Included are those future market.

Yes, I checked it last night. All of them went down from their openning, except London stock went up, then down.

We will see how is the reaction of today's NY stock market. One word "DOWN."
]]> Thu, 13 Dec 2007 11:43:47 -0500
Then, there is more money supply, more liquidity. It shoud be interpreded as a good news, right?

But how come all the stock markets drop so far? Included are those future market.

Yes, I checked it last night. All of them went down from their openning, except London stock went up, then down.

We will see how is the reaction of today's NY stock market. One word "DOWN."
]]>