Rocktex

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    • Wed Oct 24th 22:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Where Was The Bubble: Houses, Rates or Credit?
      Sorry, I didn't mention that it was Japan's market in my first question.
      Also, I forgot to mention that I read an article 4 years ago. I was written by Will*** B****, an attorney who said there would be no way for American RE market bursting into a bubble. He held almost the same arguments , such as a home is NOT a stock, as yours.

      Well, look what we has getting? The wind is changing its direction!
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 24th 22:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Where Was The Bubble: Houses, Rates or Credit?
      I see your points in the intrinsic value of a house, such as a shelter everyone needs. Also agree a house is not like a stock.
      But there are two things really bothered me:
      1) why the residential housing went down about 80% about 20 years ago and its commercial real estate also went to south for 75% at the same time as our stocks in 2002?
      2) How come it has taken more than 15 years for Japanese real estate to finally see some lights in the deprssed tunnel? How you can come up with only 5 year for America?
      I wish I could be bullish as you are: to know the real trend, possibility and better prepare to take the challenge.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 3rd 13:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Homebuilders: Hell Fights Back
      Thank you for your great article that refreshes my mind to the reality very much.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 3rd 13:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Homebuilders: Hell Fights Back
      So sad to read your article.
      But life goes on with hope and wishes.
      Best wishes to you and your granddaughter.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 3rd 11:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Did the Bush-Bernanke Offense Do Anything for the Economy?
      Some one realized that! Finally.
      No effective solution had been provided by these two great Men. I will say only political "lip" service. We will see the downtown of the last few minutes keeps going this coming Tuesday.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 31st 15:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Miracle: Bush To Part The Bankrupt Sea
      Please read in the between.
      What will get hurt? HA, HA, HA......
      What GWB or Ben said? Remind me what Bradley said when LA riot broke out. Back then, Mayor Tom Bradley said: "Give all the tenant a 3 month rent-free break! all the landlords, please." But who gave the landlords 3 month mortage-free? I don't know. Well, It seems no body get hurt and we put it behind, Really.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 29th 13:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Prices To Return All the Way To Pre-Bubble Levels?
      Look at Japan's real estate for reference.
      In early 90's, Japanese residential housing lost more than 80 percent and has been taken 15+ years without a sign to go back to pre-bubble stage.
      I am not saying that USA should follow the same patten, but there is such a possibility that could be the case.
      I was there thru 1991-1997 Los Angeles RE market and had seen it happen. People surrendered their house simply because there were no equity in homes. What the damage can do to them? They love to keep a good credit score, but it is just beyond their reach.
      We won't give our sympathy to anyone who became a strawman in a financial scandle. Those who trapped in this "liar mortage" plot help to create inflated market. In some way, they fooled themselves as the bosses of American Dream Co. until they found out they are just a strawman.
      I have some friends speculating lately who bought houses for flipping in 2004-2005. They made huge profit out of the first three deals, but now the last deal in Pasadena went wrong.
      They listed it for $ 1.25m and now reduced to $980K after 3 month without an acceptable offer. Yes, they did receive an offer of $870K before the stock tumbled. Now they regret not following my advice to take it and cut possible loses.
      All their profit in the past 2 year will be lost and end up with nothing or loses, if they could be lucky enought to sell the last one for $800K.
      Well, let's look at the bright side. It is a crisis for some and it is also an opportunity for others, just as today's stock market people is picking up cheap stocks after yesterday's 280 points south.
      Don't panic. Just be cool and sharp to explore the opportunity, guys.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 24th 12:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Low Will Housing Go?
      When housing is going down, the hardest hit area has been those poor areas. In Los Angeles area, it happen first in places such as El Monte, East LA, Pomona in San Gabriel Valley.
      Simply enough, those people has very limited financial resources to deal with their housing difficulty. They gave up first and also interesting enough, nobody wants to get into their shoes because thsoe who can accept living in that area are not in a position to buy, particularily they don't have cool Cash to get the REO properties first and refinance them 3 months later to complete a "no money dow, cash out" play.
      Your logics are right, but not to the facts of the situation.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 24th 12:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Low Will Housing Go?
      You are absolutely right from my experience as an agent working during 1989-1997.

      Your estimate is somehow too generalized and conservative. Yes, the general trend may see 50 percent off the peak. But in so many distressed special cases, there are a lot opportunity for a patient investor.

      I saw how low the housing market went down in Los Angeles around 1995-1997. We had at least 70 percent off the 1989 peak price. In 1995-97, there was a lot of condos, 3+2 with 1000-1200 sqft, asking 60K and selling for 50K. Some were even lower, there were a huge condo complex at the interscetion of San Gabriel Blvd. and I-60 asking only at lower of 30K. Interesting enough, I almost had to beg a buyer to buy them. Nobody wanted to buy. I had some buyers making up so many "stupid" excuses such as Califorinia has earthquake.
      My investors and I bought 30 some units averaging around 55K and sold them for 325K in around 2003.
      As I know, this mess created by "liar mortages" is even much bigger than that one of S & L crisis or RTC resolution.
      We will see how many walk out their "no equity" homes that they purchased with no down payment and how the Fed handles the situation.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 24th 11:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Great Society Part II: Fed Tries to Save Itself From...Itself
      Ha!
      It is a showtime of our society. Handout shall overcome. Who cares about hard working anymore?
      View article »
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