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Stewpified

Stewpified
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  • Warren Buffett Is Dumping Stocks Out The Back Door [View article]
    I think he's a big reason behind Obama's heel-dragging on Keystone XL. Hate to create any pipelines that might upset the railroad oil tanker industry demand, right Mr. Buffett? Meanwhile Obama's all for "infrastructure projects" to invigorate the economy. Doesn't Keystone XL qualify as an infrastructure project?
    Nov 17, 2014. 03:08 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Counting Chickens Before They Hatch [View article]
    "October has not been a great month for Facebook so far, leading some investors to think that it is a good entry point."

    Interesting bullet point. Only because nowhere in the article do you explain this posture. Has to be fundamental, but the term "entry point" makes me think you're alluding to technical.

    I love FB's chart. You have a mid-March to late July base of $72 to $54 that was just taken out with new highs of $79 on the last day of September. Then during a big 10% market selloff, a similar 10% correction for FB that created a higher bottom at $71. Now we're at new highs in the $80's while the market's still 2.6% from its highs.

    For a stock like FB to come out of the month so unscathed, I'd have to say it's had an absolutely great October.
    Oct 24, 2014. 03:56 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Situation: New IPO Crashes 90% Out Of The Gate On Unexpected Dump [View article]
    Spot on, Nattering. (a Spiro Agnew classic, btw). Look, I was an original Sam Adams drinker here in Boston when it came out in 1985. Within about 5 years I was a PBR guy--most likely due to a volume hankering due to my social habits. Well for the last two, thanks to a gift of a case of Heady Toppers, I'm back on the micro-brew bandwagon.

    As a "newbie," I'm learning at a rapid pace the different beers out there, and the brands that produce the highest quality versions of those. Bottom line: the only place I'd ever invest my $$ is where there is an outstanding brand producing very well received beers.

    Drinkers eventually gravitate towards the best beers. If you think ABC is going to steal market share from a) the competition in the same boat as they--trying to establish a reputation or b) the high-growth winners with already established reputations, that's a huge stretch.

    Author thinks the brewmaster's PAST REPUTATION will carry the day, or an agreement with a distributor. Bunk. Until ABC hits the scene with a truly head-turning beer, they're simply another competitor trying hard not to become an also-ran.

    Another said it best: Why invest in someone else's dream? So the story is full of holes, then couple it with the sketchy pink sheet market (really? promoters given shares as compensation, which they sell to make a living?)

    If the ABC beers were that good, I'm sure they could have come up with the $285k somewhere else.

    In the meantime, Heady Toppers (#1 ranked beer but you have to wait in line for hours in VT to get them), Ithaca Brewery Flower Power, and Sierra Nevada Torpedoes will not only be my favorites to drink, but have the only cache that I'd ever consider investing in.
    Oct 23, 2014. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Situation: New IPO Crashes 90% Out Of The Gate On Unexpected Dump [View article]
    Great service in the Edmonds pub does not equal craft beers good enough to sell across the country. Very competitive business. And I don't trust penny stocks.
    Oct 21, 2014. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Situation: New IPO Crashes 90% Out Of The Gate On Unexpected Dump [View article]
    Doesn't look like they have anything outstanding in their beer lineup according to Beer Advocate.
    Oct 21, 2014. 11:13 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro: Camera Or Smartphone? Social Media Or Electronics? Price Or Value? [View article]
    hey wsurfer, apparently you've never hunted for elk or mountain goats in the rocky mountains. as ignorant as me telling you windsurfing isn't strenuous because the wind does all the work.
    Oct 17, 2014. 02:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why SodaStream Will Continue To Fizzle In The U.S. And Keurig Won't [View article]
    Kurt, you're missing a simple point: Keurig has brands, the early competition didn't. People are brand loyal with drinks, whether coffee, beer or soda. Keurig has locked up so many brands with marketing agreements, they effectively locked out the competition.
    SODA has zero brands. So they're effectively shutting out the brand-loyal soda consumers from their markets. It was once explained to me years ago, neither PEP or KO would EVER let the responsibility of mixing the correct amount of syrup with carbonated water fall in the hands of the consumer. Could you imagine a loyal coca-cola drinker having a SODA version of it, and make a scowl because it was too strong or too weak? Consistency of product is key.
    Thus, where Keurig is developing a system where a single pod of coca-cola will make a single glass of coca-cola, the integrity of the taste of that coca-cola is preserved. SODA will never partner with either company to make at-home sodas.
    Oct 9, 2014. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro Is Just A Trading Vehicle Right Now [View article]
    "No one - not even GoPro management - has an understanding of this company's total addressable market."

    Wrong. There's only ONE guy who knows

    Mr. Market knows. Follow his message. For now he's indicating a long position is more optimal than a short position.
    Sep 9, 2014. 10:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Apple And Prepare For A Market Crash [View article]
    STD, IF you lived through the dot-com and the real estate bubbles, you might remember that they were bubbles once there was no one left doubting their upside. (Cisco being held in value funds--remember?). "You can't build more real estate" remember?

    Anecdotally, we are NOWHERE near those mindsets in either Real Estate (again? seriously--the same asset bubble twice in 7 years?) or the bond market (really, the mantra of lower and lower rates is deafening <sarc>)

    Bubble prediction is about as useful as long-term climate predictions.

    The problem of "if-then" thematic investing is simply that it is not actionable. Stick with charts.
    Sep 5, 2014. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone XL replay haunts Trans Mountain as fight shifts to climate [View news story]
    Amazing how the Obama admin. constantly flaps their damn gums about "infrastructure," then acts like pipelines have nothing to do with infrastructure, and everything to do with some phony carbon war.
    Sep 3, 2014. 03:17 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain: Signs Of Trouble Ahead? [View article]
    That's the problem: It's never "worth buying shares" time in your world. And if you think a potential KO deal is the only catalyst for holding shares "until then," I can only imagine all the reasons for getting out we'll hear between now and "then."

    Follow the chart. GMCR will let you know when it's time to sell.
    Aug 25, 2014. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keurig Green Mountain: Signs Of Trouble Ahead? [View article]
    The market isn't agreeing with you two. The "fundamental analysis curse." Once y'all put so much time into fundamentally analyzing this stock and reaching the same conclusion you always do, it's virtually impossible to take a step back and say "well, I was wrong."

    Thank you for the technical analysis shot in the arm. Interpreting a chart is so much less emotional, it makes it so much easier to admit you're wrong and move on. There's a sense of "I'll get it right one of these days" in the recent fundamentally bearish articles on GMCR. Good luck.
    Aug 25, 2014. 09:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Shareholders Are The Winners Of This Transaction [View article]
    Agreed. KMP has been a dog due to the IDR's crippling cash flow for the benefit of KMI. Now, a 25% pop in the price on this news has enabled KMP to merely play "catch-up" to other pipelines (like EPD & MMP) who eliminated IDR years ago.

    Kinder (NYSE:KMI) gets a tax benefit, and long-term KMP holders get screwed (as any other stock deal would enable them to transfer over their low stock basis and further defer cap gains taxes), because they have to pay L-T cap gains whether they sell OR hold.
    Aug 21, 2014. 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Signs A Market Bottom Is Forming [View article]
    Thank you for your contributive brick in the wall of worry! Check 2003-2007 and see how waiting for a 10% correction worked out then.
    Aug 7, 2014. 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Q2 2014 Quarterly Recap [View article]
    Ball buster.

    "You might in the business" I guess we'll see each other in the holding cell at the grammar police station.

    I apologize, Seth. I checked and the term isn't attributable to you but another frequent GMCR short.

    Regardless, is there a difference between "over-inventoried" and channel-stuffing? Does the former put the blame on the retailer and the latter on the manufacturer?
    Aug 6, 2014. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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