johnlewing

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    • Wed Aug 22nd 13:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Missing From All the Credit Crisis Coverage: A Realistic Assessment of Where Home Prices Are Headed
      as usual simple logic is the way to understand the situation:

      1. asset value is based on cash flows (after-tax rental cash flows is a good starter) discounted at an appropriate rate to reflect the risk of the cash flows.

      2. clearly houses in urban areas are overvalued on this basis, and probably substantially.

      3. however, the comparison to prior periods is very tricky as general interest rates and interest rate expectations have come down over the past decade or two. in other words it's not an apples to apples comparison on the discount rate....whereas the cash flow estimates are probably reasonably comparable as long as inflation is considered.

      bottom line is that they have to correct (and obviously have begun that process) but how fast and whether much of the loss will be "real" loss to inflation over time or a quicker nominal loss process.....nobody knows.

      my guess is that prices will fall 10 % per year for a couple more years and in the end it will be nearly a 35% real loss and a 25% nominal loss on values.....

      there will also be tax revolts throughout the land as the municipalities and townships hang on to their phony assessments and keep spending money foolishly and lavishly, especially on their own pensions.

      johnny b. dog
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    • Mon Aug 20th 20:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      In Defense of Jim Cramer
      Not sure which is more disingenuous, Mr. Cramer's absurd buy/sell recommendations or your promoting your firm under the guise of writing a useful commentary about Cramer.

      At least you subtly imply that most investors are better off ignoring active managers like Vestopia.

      johnny b. dog
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    • Mon Aug 20th 11:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Boo-yah! Barron's Shorts Cramer
      I would imagine Murdoch and his staff know the remedy for Cramer's popularity: a dull market or a bear market.

      Cramer is a product of the 90's bull market......he was an aggressive money manager with a buy the dips mentality - it worked. If he had reached his prime years in the early 70's with that mentality, nobody would know his name, and he'd have alot less money.

      Keep in mind that folks like Cramer are getting their wealth by skimming money from their clients risk taking.......not their own (for the most part). Of course, this is how it's always worked on Wall Street.

      A certain part of the Barron's article is unfair in that it is difficult to measure the so-called performance of a clown spouting his opinion in order to entertain retiree's that can't get excited from their own adventures in life (ergo they watch television and pretend they are involved in something). Babbling on the boob tube about this company or that company.............

      There is only one reasonable way to measure Cramer's performance: the Nielsen ratings !

      His phony familiarity with every public company that is publicly traded is truly absurd......."tha... a great company", "great management", "my buddy at Anally is money in the bank", bla, bla, bla, bla, bla........

      And like many TV personalities, Cramer presumably appreciates how absurd it is that he gets paid for such nonsense.................

      Is Barry Ritholtz opinion any better than Cramer's ?

      Generally I get the sense that Ritholtz is moderately more rigorous than Cramer, who seems to believe his gut-instinct-ometer is worth something despite the contrary evidence.

      At least Ritholtz educational background demonstrates an interest in the analytical/statistical... aspects of the business........Cramer was initially a journalism type / people person........I don't care what he did at Goldman, you can tell alot about a person by the education they choose...........

      Of course in the end for Ritholtz to add value as a journalist his readers need to demand he back up his arguments with reasonable evidence........unfort... when you reach a certain poplularity you can just crank out a whole lotta random chit-chat.......and it plays.

      why does it play ?

      the goal is to have content surrounding the advertising......as long as the content plays to the suckers, the underlying basis of the arguments really doesn't matter much.

      regards, johnny b. dog
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    • Sun Aug 19th 22:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Boo-yah! Barron's Shorts Cramer
      It's interesting that you seem to ignore the obvious point of the Barron's report which is quite simple:

      Cramer does not add value based on the period analyzed, and investors should be very dubious of his emotionally charged advice.

      This is true statement about the vast majority of money managers, and I would guess that the one's that seek attention through journalism are the most dangerous to novice investors.

      Unfortunately the best advice Cramer can give to the folks that are entertained by him is to simply invest in an index fund or diversified basket of ETF's. But even though Cramer likely knows that he adds no value, his schtick would not play well if it were preceded by his own admonitions about the financially dangerous spoutings to follow.

      Whether Cramer actually added value while he was a hedge fund manager is difficult to know - even so-called sophisticated investors (this usually is just slang for people that can afford to lose money) are pretty clueless about performance evaluation and attribution.

      It's a good service for Barron's to point out Cramer's poor track record, but it's not too tough to see his lack of value by listening to his words and following up the results as this internet blogger did:

      www.youtube.com/watch?...

      You have to give it to Cramer for putting himself up to scrutiny........the unfortunate reality is that he offers little beyond smart sounding conjecture.

      johnny b. dog

      p.s. those that talk do not know. those that know do not talk.
      View article »
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