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  • Playing the Theme, Not the Stock [View article]
    We continue to maintain an AVOID rating on Adecoagro (AGRO). AGRO is attempting to farm too many crops in too many venues. They are building a greenfield ethanol plant at a time when industry leader COSAN S.A. (CZZ) says projected margins on greenfield development are unattractive. The lock-up period for insiders has expired. We expect this stock to continue to be an under performer, despite efforts to gin up interest as an ag theme play and the "sparkle" associated with the Soros name.
    For an explanation of our concerns see post: seekingalpha.com/insta...

    Mike Fritz
    Editor
    Farmland Investor Letter
    farmlandinvestorcenter...
    Aug 13 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soros Just Spent $455 Million on Adecoagro and Visteon [View article]
    Soros' is origional backer of Adecoagro. He tried to sell shares in recent ipo, but was forced to retain stock after tepid interest in agro and two pre-market cuts in ipo offering price. We maintain avoid rating on agro
    Jun 5 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soros-Backed IPO Adecoagro Provides Access to the Best Investment on Earth [View article]
    We maintain our avoid rating AGRO IPO, dispite cut in expected price range: $11-$12 vs. $13-$15 & sharp cut in size of secondary share offering by current shareholders to 165,503 shares, from 7.1M shares. Our rationale citing concerns over restrictions on foreign landownership in Brazil, heavy business weighting in politically unstable Argentina, lack of profitability remain unresolved.
    Jan 28 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Soros-Backed IPO Adecoagro Provides Access to the Best Investment on Earth [View article]
    Our initial opinion on AGRO: Avoid IPO/Consider opportunistic purchases after clarity on restrictions against foreign ownership of Brazilian farmland. Future acquisitions and leasing of Brazilian farmland will be subject to new restrictions, and will require several additional layers of review and approvals which could be discretionary, burdensome and time consuming, acknowledges Adecoagro in its registration filing. This could impact AGRO's stated goal to expand sugarcane planting to 296,520 leased acres by 2016, from 99,791acres now. For a full version of our analysis, contact us at service@farmlandinvest...

    Mike Fritz
    Editor
    farmlandinvestorletter...
    Jan 27 10:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Confirmed: Farmland Prices Are Correcting [View article]
    U.S. farmland values have generally been in correction-mode since 3Q08. The USDA data released Aug. 8th, reflects valuations as of 1/1/09; i.e.calendar year 2008, and is quite stale.

    More recent monthly index data show that ag land values have continued to contract across the Midwest, Plains and Mountain states. See our Monthly Land Market Pulse: www.farmlandinvestorle....

    While we continue to believe that the long-term outlook for agricultural real estate is positive and merits opportunistic purchases, we generally consider U.S. agricultural real estate as fully priced. Based on forecast 2009 farm earnings, we calculate that U.S. farm real estate is selling at 27 times earnings--a record high. Farmland traded at just under 25 times earning in 1981 prior to a six-year slide in prices.

    Sincerely,

    Mike Fritz
    Editor
    Farmland Investor Letter



    Aug 10 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Land Holdings Review 2008 (Part I) [View article]
    What was your thesis for selling out of MLP?
    Dec 15 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Land Holdings Review 2008 (Part I) [View article]
    What was your thesis for selling out of MLP?
    Dec 15 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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