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ssl23

ssl23
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  • How Low Will The Stock Market Go? [View article]
    Thanks for the article...the thing that has me worried about that chart is that the correction in Sept-Oct 2013, May-June 2013 and now Jan- 2014 were all triggered by Govt. and Fed....
    It seems like were probably closer to the end of this pullback than the start of something, the last one to go is usually the strongest before the snapback.....But this rally (SPX)has been so hard to buy the dips because of the fast snapbacks...its all options and VOL....risk/on and off....
    One thing though I agree with you James, this move is not like the others, we are trading to the key technical levels, within days....with high volume every day....
    Feb 5 12:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q4 2013 Book Value Projection [View article]
    Scott,

    Thanks for the article and your comments. I like the REIT...I just caution going into earnings ending a very bad year, they are likely to get all the bad news out of their "marks"...from a short term trading perspective the volume on this up-move from a new 52 week low has not been good and you would think that the street would be reaching for the safety of agency dollar credit in this current flight to quality into treasuries....
    Feb 2 03:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q4 2013 Book Value Projection [View article]
    If they hedged agencies with short treasuries then they are not doing well now as are in a flight to quality period, if they're hedge is short dollar libor in swaps then they're numbers should look better.

    The big question is are they delta neutral hedged or is there a tail that is a bit market directional on the portfolio. If they expected the treasury market to sell off and curve to steepen then they are going to not have good marks now.

    But the earnings numbers based on where the market was in late Dec are not representative of the current mtm portfolio in Feb....it's like night and day so trading based on earning's would be wrong to do...

    They will do well in a rising rate environment if they can hedge those libor/repo stub periods with longer term repos... and thus increase the carry spread....
    Feb 2 01:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn comments hit averages [View news story]
    its just profit taking before fed min. though what icahn can do with stocks like apple...tweet....i wish i could load up and move the market my way with a tweet....
    Nov 18 03:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CME halts some Treasury futures contracts prior to jobs data [View news story]
    not hard to figure out who placed the orders cme....it they are outright and not spread orders...
    Aug 2 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What Happened The Last Time The Fed Owned All Outstanding Treasuries [View article]
    Dont fight the FED....thats what I get from this article.
    Apr 6 08:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned From An Apple Bull [View article]
    My problem is the confusion management has created...

    listening to the conference call they keep mentioning the 13 week vs 14 week and supply constraints hindering sales....and that they weekly sales is growing over last year quarter...so no problems then???
    then they give now "real" guidance that implies a 18% decline year over year quarter...


    well what is it? stop marketing to investors...which statement should i believe? they are contradictory!

    You see why the investors are running for the exit...

    Good traders can admit they were wrong, learn from that and move on to the next trade...I find that I always wind up taking my biggest losses when i get too tied down to my opinions and trade much better when i keep an open mind.
    Jan 26 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
    My problem is the confusion management has created...

    listening to the conference call they keep mentioning the 13 week vs 14 week and supply constraints hindering sales....and that they weekly sales is growing over last year quarter...so no problems then???
    then they give now "real" guidance that implies a 18% decline year over year quarter...


    well what is it? stop marketing to investors...which statement should i believe? they are contradictory!

    You see why the investors are running for the exit...
    Jan 26 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Topeka's Brian White gives in on Apple (AAPL), lowering his price target to $888 from $1,111. He remains a bull though: "Estimate resets lower the bar for the future ... At the same time, we believe the profit and sales cycle will reach bottom" in FQ2. Shares -8.9% premarket. [View news story]
    The problem with apple is not the business its the way management has handled its relationship with the analyst and the street.

    It was fine , when you didnt need them and your growing 100% y/y on revenue, but now as growth slowed the management failed to warn its investors with that guidance and was silent as analysts made wild guesses at its business.

    Listening to that conference you can sense the concern as they had NO idea that what they are saying would be a shock to investors....marketing to customers is one thing, but to investors??

    On top of that...they are not giving a earning number next quarter, so now everyone's guessing that its because...its bad.

    Hey..they bought 2bb value of its shares back last quarter...while the stock lost 200bb in value....ohh and another 50bb just since the earnings report.
    Thats why the street is not pricing in cash......they're running the co. like a private company
    Jan 24 09:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL): FQ1 EPS of $13.81 beats by $0.37. Revenue of $54.51B (+18% Y/Y) misses by $220M. 47.8M iPhones, 22.9M iPads, 4.1M Macs, 12.7M iPods. Expects FQ2 revenue of $41B-$43B, below $45.6B consensus. Shares -4.3% AH. (PR[View news story]
    im right there with you mktneutralhedger....but got greedy and thinking too much about being right than being smart(get out and not take the earning risk)....went from nice profit day to bad month in a matter of seconds...

    Out of this trade....onto the next...keeping my 401k stuff in apple for long term trade...guidance is cloudly, not even going to give a eps for next quarter....its possible market may price in no growth for this stock for the year....
    Jan 23 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple iPhone 5: What Are The Implications From AT&T And Verizon? [View article]
    Not sure thats why the stock is moving...Google said that they want to run Motorola profitability. That might mean that they will not price war, and that is very bullish for apple.

    They are investigating Google and Apple on collusion to keep employees, it might be that the media war we hear of is just PR...
    makes no sense to sell phones below or at cost long run for google and hurt your own android hardware makers...
    Jan 22 07:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple iPhone 5: What Are The Implications From AT&T And Verizon? [View article]
    Your assumption is that the us sales are a proxy for total sales, but the launch this year was faster and more broad than last year and you had China launch later in the past quarter where last year China was in next quarter(why estimates will probably come down for next).

    So the analysis gives a proxy for demand in the US...not the total amount of iphones sold worldwide. China was second behind US in apple rev %.
    Jan 22 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
    apple put/call skew is lowest since 2011 march bloomberg reports.

    the fear is in the media , not the pros....
    watch vol. get sucked out after earnings.
    Jan 22 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon (VZ) states on its Q4 call it activated 6.2M iPhones in Q4, good for 63% of total smartphone activations (up from 46% in Q3, and 56% in the year-ago period). Big Red had previously disclosed it activated 9.8M smartphones in the quarter. CFO Fran Shammo says about half of the iPhone sales involved the iPhone 5 - that remark comes as UBS points to survey data indicating a mix shift towards older and lower-capacity iPhone models. Apple (AAPL) +0.8%. (AT&T smartphone sales[View news story]
    Nokia sold 4 million lumina phones last quarter, how many were 920's?

    LG optimus G phones...record sales of 250,000 per month???

    If phone5 sales are that bad...where are those proposed sales going too???

    The analysis says they are not going anywhere...at least this quarter...and thats what counts in the next few days.
    Jan 22 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon (VZ) states on its Q4 call it activated 6.2M iPhones in Q4, good for 63% of total smartphone activations (up from 46% in Q3, and 56% in the year-ago period). Big Red had previously disclosed it activated 9.8M smartphones in the quarter. CFO Fran Shammo says about half of the iPhone sales involved the iPhone 5 - that remark comes as UBS points to survey data indicating a mix shift towards older and lower-capacity iPhone models. Apple (AAPL) +0.8%. (AT&T smartphone sales[View news story]
    thats up from last years blow-out quarter
    iphone 4s sales are going to be very good this quarter....
    this is good news.....

    samsung only sold about 18mm s3's this quarter....
    the others are selling a few million at most of high end smartphone.
    If samsung sold 30mm gs3's this quarter or so, i'd be worried...
    samsung is the only co. other than Apple that can ship out that number for this quarter.

    google nexus 4....they are only making/selling a few hundred thousand per month at a loss...I just got the 2 i ordered from NOV. 29th yesterday!
    Jan 22 10:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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