My problem is the confusion management has created...
listening to the conference call they keep mentioning the 13 week vs 14 week and supply constraints hindering sales....and that they weekly sales is growing over last year quarter...so no problems then??? then they give now "real" guidance that implies a 18% decline year over year quarter...
well what is it? stop marketing to investors...which statement should i believe? they are contradictory!
You see why the investors are running for the exit...
Good traders can admit they were wrong, learn from that and move on to the next trade...I find that I always wind up taking my biggest losses when i get too tied down to my opinions and trade much better when i keep an open mind.
My problem is the confusion management has created...
listening to the conference call they keep mentioning the 13 week vs 14 week and supply constraints hindering sales....and that they weekly sales is growing over last year quarter...so no problems then??? then they give now "real" guidance that implies a 18% decline year over year quarter...
well what is it? stop marketing to investors...which statement should i believe? they are contradictory!
You see why the investors are running for the exit...
Topeka's Brian White gives in on Apple (AAPL), lowering his price target to $888 from $1,111. He remains a bull though: "Estimate resets lower the bar for the future ... At the same time, we believe the profit and sales cycle will reach bottom" in FQ2. Shares -8.9% premarket. [View news story]
The problem with apple is not the business its the way management has handled its relationship with the analyst and the street.
It was fine , when you didnt need them and your growing 100% y/y on revenue, but now as growth slowed the management failed to warn its investors with that guidance and was silent as analysts made wild guesses at its business.
Listening to that conference you can sense the concern as they had NO idea that what they are saying would be a shock to investors....marketing to customers is one thing, but to investors??
On top of that...they are not giving a earning number next quarter, so now everyone's guessing that its because...its bad.
Hey..they bought 2bb value of its shares back last quarter...while the stock lost 200bb in value....ohh and another 50bb just since the earnings report. Thats why the street is not pricing in cash......they're running the co. like a private company
Apple (AAPL): FQ1 EPS of $13.81 beats by $0.37. Revenue of $54.51B (+18% Y/Y) misses by $220M. 47.8M iPhones, 22.9M iPads, 4.1M Macs, 12.7M iPods. Expects FQ2 revenue of $41B-$43B, below $45.6B consensus. Shares -4.3% AH. (PR) [View news story]
im right there with you mktneutralhedger....but got greedy and thinking too much about being right than being smart(get out and not take the earning risk)....went from nice profit day to bad month in a matter of seconds...
Out of this trade....onto the next...keeping my 401k stuff in apple for long term trade...guidance is cloudly, not even going to give a eps for next quarter....its possible market may price in no growth for this stock for the year....
Apple iPhone 5: What Are The Implications From AT&T And Verizon? [View article]
Not sure thats why the stock is moving...Google said that they want to run Motorola profitability. That might mean that they will not price war, and that is very bullish for apple.
They are investigating Google and Apple on collusion to keep employees, it might be that the media war we hear of is just PR... makes no sense to sell phones below or at cost long run for google and hurt your own android hardware makers...
Apple iPhone 5: What Are The Implications From AT&T And Verizon? [View article]
Your assumption is that the us sales are a proxy for total sales, but the launch this year was faster and more broad than last year and you had China launch later in the past quarter where last year China was in next quarter(why estimates will probably come down for next).
So the analysis gives a proxy for demand in the US...not the total amount of iphones sold worldwide. China was second behind US in apple rev %.
Verizon (VZ) states on its Q4 call it activated 6.2M iPhones in Q4, good for 63% of total smartphone activations (up from 46% in Q3, and 56% in the year-ago period). Big Red had previously disclosed it activated 9.8M smartphones in the quarter. CFO Fran Shammo says about half of the iPhone sales involved the iPhone 5 - that remark comes as UBS points to survey data indicating a mix shift towards older and lower-capacity iPhone models. Apple (AAPL) +0.8%. (AT&T smartphone sales) [View news story]
Nokia sold 4 million lumina phones last quarter, how many were 920's?
LG optimus G phones...record sales of 250,000 per month???
If phone5 sales are that bad...where are those proposed sales going too???
The analysis says they are not going anywhere...at least this quarter...and thats what counts in the next few days.
Verizon (VZ) states on its Q4 call it activated 6.2M iPhones in Q4, good for 63% of total smartphone activations (up from 46% in Q3, and 56% in the year-ago period). Big Red had previously disclosed it activated 9.8M smartphones in the quarter. CFO Fran Shammo says about half of the iPhone sales involved the iPhone 5 - that remark comes as UBS points to survey data indicating a mix shift towards older and lower-capacity iPhone models. Apple (AAPL) +0.8%. (AT&T smartphone sales) [View news story]
thats up from last years blow-out quarter iphone 4s sales are going to be very good this quarter.... this is good news.....
samsung only sold about 18mm s3's this quarter.... the others are selling a few million at most of high end smartphone. If samsung sold 30mm gs3's this quarter or so, i'd be worried... samsung is the only co. other than Apple that can ship out that number for this quarter.
google nexus 4....they are only making/selling a few hundred thousand per month at a loss...I just got the 2 i ordered from NOV. 29th yesterday!
I am beginning to think that apple is aware of this....thats why it feels that dividend payout and buybacks are not worthwhile.
Not sure if this is helping to cause long term PE contraction, but thats happening though the whole sector and not just apple.
It does cap the stock for periods, but it also encourages huge breakouts...
You could say that they've gotten so much free press over the past 3 months, even though its negative, at least people are talking about Apple and not samsung, google phone, nokia....etc...that if they were to blow away the watered down expectations that the stock would re-set and take off again....
The market makers can move the price collectively during the day or short period, but to keep in going this long there are hedge funds and algos involved...so i would put the hedge fund, back in....the money managers dont have a clue and still looking at the P/E of the stock so put them in the same space as retail.
Ive seen this before.... It always seems to come out from the EAST...asian hours... Sell side analyst downgrade...
Hedge funds like Goldman , Citadel, and Cramers friends probably are in the trade also.
This is a muti-billion dollar trade...if you managing billions this trade can be material to your year....its probably the only trade that is alpha from SPX and vol that you can put on or against.
Max pain is only part of the trade....but the setup is perfect...you have loyal apple fans and die hard investors that are looking only at fundamentals so you'll have people looking to buy from you at perceived value price...you have a predictable management that doesnt comment out of earnings...and you have a market cap that is liquid and substantial.
Bill Gross Likes The 5 Year Treasury. Here's Why. [View article]
Bill gross doesnt like the 5 yr US ...he likes long 5yr short 30yr...
there is a big difference.
no way is he selling 4 yr against it! he already got enough long risk. he's probably nervous now cause if this equity market rally is real(get new highs) we could really see the curve steepen...
I agree the bond king is a master of mis-direction...
Jeffrey Lacker is sticking to his original allegation made in the summer of 2007, as storm clouds gathered over the world's financial system, that then-New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner allegedly informed the Bank of America (BAC) and other banks about the possibility the central bank would lower the discount rate. According to transcripts of the call released by the Fed on Friday, Geithner at the time denied that banks knew the Fed was considering making any cut. Despite the inherent questionability of his actions however, its still not clear if the disclosure would have been illegal. [View news story]
Next year's edition should be interesting...
we'll really see why they saved bear and not lehman.
back in the days credit officers were always weary of bear and lehman, hair cuts were larger and those firms always were considered more of a credit risk.
the street knew the dangers, but there was too much self interest to keep the party going...
Here's What Happened The Last Time The Fed Owned All Outstanding Treasuries [View article]
Lessons Learned From An Apple Bull [View article]
listening to the conference call they keep mentioning the 13 week vs 14 week and supply constraints hindering sales....and that they weekly sales is growing over last year quarter...so no problems then???
then they give now "real" guidance that implies a 18% decline year over year quarter...
well what is it? stop marketing to investors...which statement should i believe? they are contradictory!
You see why the investors are running for the exit...
Good traders can admit they were wrong, learn from that and move on to the next trade...I find that I always wind up taking my biggest losses when i get too tied down to my opinions and trade much better when i keep an open mind.
Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
listening to the conference call they keep mentioning the 13 week vs 14 week and supply constraints hindering sales....and that they weekly sales is growing over last year quarter...so no problems then???
then they give now "real" guidance that implies a 18% decline year over year quarter...
well what is it? stop marketing to investors...which statement should i believe? they are contradictory!
You see why the investors are running for the exit...
Topeka's Brian White gives in on Apple (AAPL), lowering his price target to $888 from $1,111. He remains a bull though: "Estimate resets lower the bar for the future ... At the same time, we believe the profit and sales cycle will reach bottom" in FQ2. Shares -8.9% premarket. [View news story]
It was fine , when you didnt need them and your growing 100% y/y on revenue, but now as growth slowed the management failed to warn its investors with that guidance and was silent as analysts made wild guesses at its business.
Listening to that conference you can sense the concern as they had NO idea that what they are saying would be a shock to investors....marketing to customers is one thing, but to investors??
On top of that...they are not giving a earning number next quarter, so now everyone's guessing that its because...its bad.
Hey..they bought 2bb value of its shares back last quarter...while the stock lost 200bb in value....ohh and another 50bb just since the earnings report.
Thats why the street is not pricing in cash......they're running the co. like a private company
Apple (AAPL): FQ1 EPS of $13.81 beats by $0.37. Revenue of $54.51B (+18% Y/Y) misses by $220M. 47.8M iPhones, 22.9M iPads, 4.1M Macs, 12.7M iPods. Expects FQ2 revenue of $41B-$43B, below $45.6B consensus. Shares -4.3% AH. (PR) [View news story]
Out of this trade....onto the next...keeping my 401k stuff in apple for long term trade...guidance is cloudly, not even going to give a eps for next quarter....its possible market may price in no growth for this stock for the year....
Apple iPhone 5: What Are The Implications From AT&T And Verizon? [View article]
They are investigating Google and Apple on collusion to keep employees, it might be that the media war we hear of is just PR...
makes no sense to sell phones below or at cost long run for google and hurt your own android hardware makers...
Apple iPhone 5: What Are The Implications From AT&T And Verizon? [View article]
So the analysis gives a proxy for demand in the US...not the total amount of iphones sold worldwide. China was second behind US in apple rev %.
Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
the fear is in the media , not the pros....
watch vol. get sucked out after earnings.
Verizon (VZ) states on its Q4 call it activated 6.2M iPhones in Q4, good for 63% of total smartphone activations (up from 46% in Q3, and 56% in the year-ago period). Big Red had previously disclosed it activated 9.8M smartphones in the quarter. CFO Fran Shammo says about half of the iPhone sales involved the iPhone 5 - that remark comes as UBS points to survey data indicating a mix shift towards older and lower-capacity iPhone models. Apple (AAPL) +0.8%. (AT&T smartphone sales) [View news story]
LG optimus G phones...record sales of 250,000 per month???
If phone5 sales are that bad...where are those proposed sales going too???
The analysis says they are not going anywhere...at least this quarter...and thats what counts in the next few days.
Verizon (VZ) states on its Q4 call it activated 6.2M iPhones in Q4, good for 63% of total smartphone activations (up from 46% in Q3, and 56% in the year-ago period). Big Red had previously disclosed it activated 9.8M smartphones in the quarter. CFO Fran Shammo says about half of the iPhone sales involved the iPhone 5 - that remark comes as UBS points to survey data indicating a mix shift towards older and lower-capacity iPhone models. Apple (AAPL) +0.8%. (AT&T smartphone sales) [View news story]
iphone 4s sales are going to be very good this quarter....
this is good news.....
samsung only sold about 18mm s3's this quarter....
the others are selling a few million at most of high end smartphone.
If samsung sold 30mm gs3's this quarter or so, i'd be worried...
samsung is the only co. other than Apple that can ship out that number for this quarter.
google nexus 4....they are only making/selling a few hundred thousand per month at a loss...I just got the 2 i ordered from NOV. 29th yesterday!
Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
Not sure if this is helping to cause long term PE contraction, but thats happening though the whole sector and not just apple.
It does cap the stock for periods, but it also encourages huge breakouts...
You could say that they've gotten so much free press over the past 3 months, even though its negative, at least people are talking about Apple and not samsung, google phone, nokia....etc...that if they were to blow away the watered down expectations that the stock would re-set and take off again....
good luck everyone!
Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
Ive seen this before....
It always seems to come out from the EAST...asian hours...
Sell side analyst downgrade...
Hedge funds like Goldman , Citadel, and Cramers friends probably are in the trade also.
This is a muti-billion dollar trade...if you managing billions this trade can be material to your year....its probably the only trade that is alpha from SPX and vol that you can put on or against.
Max pain is only part of the trade....but the setup is perfect...you have loyal apple fans and die hard investors that are looking only at fundamentals so you'll have people looking to buy from you at perceived value price...you have a predictable management that doesnt comment out of earnings...and you have a market cap that is liquid and substantial.
Bill Gross Likes The 5 Year Treasury. Here's Why. [View article]
there is a big difference.
no way is he selling 4 yr against it! he already got enough long risk.
he's probably nervous now cause if this equity market rally is real(get new highs) we could really see the curve steepen...
I agree the bond king is a master of mis-direction...
Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
Listen to the comments made on Friday 18th fast money segment by the traders there on apple.
http://bit.ly/UIIVaO
After seeing this, I think Im gonna add to my long position.
Someone should send that Cramer clip to Tim Cook.
Jeffrey Lacker is sticking to his original allegation made in the summer of 2007, as storm clouds gathered over the world's financial system, that then-New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner allegedly informed the Bank of America (BAC) and other banks about the possibility the central bank would lower the discount rate. According to transcripts of the call released by the Fed on Friday, Geithner at the time denied that banks knew the Fed was considering making any cut. Despite the inherent questionability of his actions however, its still not clear if the disclosure would have been illegal. [View news story]
we'll really see why they saved bear and not lehman.
back in the days credit officers were always weary of bear and lehman, hair cuts were larger and those firms always were considered more of a credit risk.
the street knew the dangers, but there was too much self interest to keep the party going...