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gigabob635

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  • Amazon Wins The Race To Live Streaming TV, Expect Big Things [View article]
    Didn't "Synergy" die in the dot com crash? Paul makes a good argument - why buy anticipating immediate profits during the hard startup phase where the integration rocks are uncovered. Wait few quarters and buy after the "Facebook dip" is over and the profit stream is uncovered or ... masked.
    Aug 25 05:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Misses The Big Point With Opera [View article]
    Falling adoption rates for IE is about government intervention forcing MS to open up the browser slot to competitive alternatives which in turn created competition improving all browsers. In 2002 93% had the browser that came with their OS - in 2012 most people have two or three browsers in play.
    Aug 22 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breaking: Microsoft Will Unveil A Windows 9 Preview Next Month [View article]
    A variance between entertainment and Operating System franchises is apparent. While Even Star Trek Series were phenomenal, the odd number series were ... less so. For the OS world it is clear the even variant's of window's are less good (Vista, 8) than the Odd Fellows, Window's 3, XP,7. Here's hoping tradition continues for "9".

    I can speculate on why this is and it comes down to a lack of maturity in SW evolution that Hardware teams at Intel firmly mastered with their "Tic-Tock" approach. Build a new architecture on a mastered process, then improve with a process shrink. Place the next new architecture on a mastered shrink - rinse and repeat. This way bugs are quashed early and engineers can rule out one source of variation when debugging.

    SW is quite a different beast and major UI and OS changes depend on the user community for acceptance. However to build a "mobile enabled OS" for a system with a radically different use case and missing the major interface (touchscreens for Laptops and Desktops) was an overreach of colossal proportions. Glad that guy has a new toy to play with. Hope the ball finally bounces his way for once.

    Hate to amend the punchline to "How do you become a millionaire" from "Take a billion and buy an airline" to "Buy a Basketball team".
    Aug 22 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Simple Case Against Cisco [View article]
    txbeekeeper has captured a complex geo-political business dynamic succinctly.

    Author's key point is right on - Cisco is not a horrible investment, but better options with less risk and greater return exist. Those companies exist in a cycle where old fashion values - full speed ahead with new products and damn the legacy torpedoes - instead of relying on legal and accounting legerdemain to achieve stay above water.

    From a product side - Cisco is in a transition period as physical networking gets commoditized and a new business model grows around software defined networking. I expect this to cut in to Cisco margins and incur operational angst as their high touch sales model forces staff cutbacks to balance overhead costs with available returns.

    Remember the death of the mainframe however. It still lives - but as a hollow replica of its former role - a process of shrinkage that has taken years. So it will go with physical networking, but I see Cisco in this steady cycle of 9-10% personnel shrinks every two years until new leadership can point them forward.

    Cisco is no longer in the "new and exciting" market - they are an infrastructure player that provides devices that ultimately touch everyone on the planet. In these environments, paradigm shifts take many years, not quarters.
    Aug 21 12:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Seeing Some Sweet Tailwinds - Now Is A Great Time To Own Stock [View article]
    Entry Level for China is just what is expected for "Hero" level devices - anything with greater than ~5M run rates. As noted in the article SoFIA is:

    "SoFIA: Low-Cost Phones Need Processing Capabilities

    In a bid to properly address the market of entry-level smartphones and tablets, Intel will introduce code-named SoFIA system-on-chip with integrated global 3G, HSPA+ baseband capabilities and with Atom x86 general-purpose processing technology sometimes in late 2014."

    This part will be manufactured at TSMC - with a follow-on LTE part done at Intel in late 2015 - leading to a 2016 ramp.

    I was at Intel through 2006 when our target sales growth was for $75B by 2015. Hasn't quite worked out that way and your group is optimistic in estimating the time it takes for a platform to ramp to volume and contribute materially to earnings.

    I am still seeking Intel's eclipse of the 2011 high's in both revenue and earnings. They may kiss that revenue level in 2014-15 - but we have a few more years before earnings recover.

    While the discussions on technical potential provide some insight on future direction, ultimately "Seeking Alpha" wants to gauge when promise turns real and deployment of a new product to market alters the value of the firm and its stock price - for good or ill. You appear to argue the benefits from the parts listed in the roadmaps will be soon - and I disagree, and have quite a bit of history behind me.

    I doubt revenue exceeds $60B until 2017 at the earliest and earnings not to surpass the $13B of 2011 until 2016 at the earliest. I see Intel stock prices as peaking early in a volatile market and may decline over the next 12 months with better buying opportunities, even given extensive buyback support, before solid performance from new market penetration aligns with market enthusiasm.

    I would appreciate your revenue and earnings forecast however. Your optimism may be warranted and the market's jump to $30 for a stock that has been in the $20 doldrums for years is the beginning of a Apple Blossom to $100. I just find it highly unlikely as the market no longer views Intel through rose colored glasses and tends to get optimistic then judge harshly as promise and performance diverge.


    Aug 16 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Seeing Some Sweet Tailwinds - Now Is A Great Time To Own Stock [View article]
    Thanks David RG for making a point I have harped on earlier. The mission to move x86 to mobile is a marathon and we should expect results in 2016 if winning designs like Sofia actually ramp to Hero device levels. Since Sofia is being fabbed at TSMC I don't expect this iteration to do much more than establish a beachhead for follow-on parts that ramp in 2017.

    Ironically the real story is stabilized PC demand - which plays to Intel's strengths - but also shows how vulnerable they are to demand transitions or overall market weakness. I see a huge future coming as IoT drives a huge demand for commodity embedded devices for medical, retail and manufacturing. But these will not be PC level margins.
    Aug 15 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Last Man Standing - Already? [View article]
    "The only deficit that Intel has in mobile is on the baseband comms side, ... it's an issue with smartphones."

    The point is that mobile, then IoT devices, need SoC's optimized for low power use cases to hit key price points. I argue the difference between technical potential and deliverable integrated SoC's that let Intel "show me the money" are not today - but in the future. You argue the technological capability is there - but can't tell when the target platform moves from a design-win to ramped volume.

    Intel's tablet objective of shipping 40 Million chipsets is at risk, but don't even think about profits. The MSFT Surface is a highly subsidized device that may be of arguable future strategic value - but is burning cash today.

    In this forum we make an effort to guide to inflection points that impact stock price. I hear you say the obstacles are being removed and Intel has a discrete solution on the wireless side... but I argue that users are buying integrated SoC's for mobile and coming IoT markets. I say wait for huge surge in 2017 - but not so much in 2014 or even 2015.

    I fully admit I am baffled by market reaction to Intel's fiscal performance. As "blue-est" of the blue chip tech icons, with one of the strongest management teams, I am surprised that the market valuation of Intel in 2011 when it earned $13B a year on $54B in sales was as a $20 stock, while as sales and earnings eroded to $52B and $9B, it is seen as a $30 stock based on a potential future that each year seems to be like fusion. I predict the market will take a fickle dip in 2015 or late 2014 if Intel cannot move from growth potential to real growth, but will continue to retain a healthy dose of Intel in my portfolio for dividends and appreciation in 2016.
    Aug 15 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Last Man Standing - Already? [View article]
    I appreciate your comments that Intel can run in a low power laptop and now high-end tablet (A $1000 Surface Pro is not really a Tablet nor priced to play in the tablet market space) - but Newbee's comments are correct in the order of magnitude power gap at mobile, where systems idle in milliwatts and less and run operationally in tenths of a watt. Intel CPU's at the core of their SoC's are still in the 1-10watt range - which is one to two orders of magnitude beyond the current ARM architectures that own mobile for Apple and the rest of the billion unit smartphone industry.

    And no BS about a design win for 2016 with pending 10nm product. That may be a winner and may ramp to volume through 2017 or 2018, even as the smartphone market saturates and money flows between the cost of innovation and efficient manufacturing start to stabilize. I don't see the factor on the horizon that moves Intel from a $50B company to $75B - which is needed to move the needle above $40 on the stock price.
    Aug 14 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Last Man Standing - Already? [View article]
    When I was in the Communications group at Intel the problem was always inter-chip integration. Solution - Sell a poorly designed, difficult to manufacture chip like Hermon that was used by RIMM to Marvell, a chip company with strong analog engineering chops. That done Intel is still trying to get in via a CPU part - but can only land on the beach with a fully integrated SoC. Which, like most of this industry, remains in a perpetual state of marketing orgasm as it is still coming.
    Aug 11 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric's Latest Discovery May Transform The LED And LCD Display Industry [View article]
    If wishes were fishes...could you be a bit more precise on when the market will take your feelings to heart and move the needle on GE stock. The reality is the display business is an already intensely competitive, low margin business and to penetrate this space with your new component you need something that is offering a much lower unit cost than current offerings. Nothing in your article leads to that conclusion. Hence the puzzlement - which remains.
    Aug 11 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric's Latest Discovery May Transform The LED And LCD Display Industry [View article]
    The LED lighting 'breakthrough' is in Lumens per watt, efficiency, not in color rendition, which already surpasses anything found in incandescent lights. Not sure how GE monetizes this new found PR 'breakthrough'. Methinks this is another one of John Oliver's "PR Ad's disguised as a serious news article".

    http://bit.ly/1kPJcd0
    Aug 8 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Inside Pocket - LEAPS For A Touchdown [View article]
    Not sure where you are all coming from during this recent INTC stock price spike and with the babble on about Phase Change Memory. Micron was the big producer of Phase Change - and they just exited the business, noting recent advances in 3D NAND as more cost effective.

    For semiconductor manufacturers it comes down to who owns the IP, irrespective of technology. Intel has fingers and a few percent in many places - but for IoT ARM is still the "Goldilocks" part offering the right amount of CPU power whilst consuming the least amount of energy in a robust platform with extensive software ecosystem to support applications.

    Broadwell will make a better PC - especially with integrated semiconductor memory - whether flash, PCM or memristor - but can I afford it? Frankly, I will be most excited when the micro-PC with integrated memory and Gbit Wifi gets coupled with a much better google glass implementation and the appropriate haptic interface technology. But this will take a few years.
    Aug 5 10:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mosaic Theory: Why Google's Cap-Ex In Data Centers Is Entirely Different From Their Competitors [View article]
    Google is building DC's because then they become an integrated services provider. Think of the semi-conductor business - do you want to be an Intel who designs then produces and directly markets its products, or and AMD who is now just a design house and needs to farm out their products to a separate for profit company to produce before they get customers.

    Think what would have happened if GM owned the roads the cars they sell ride on as well. Google is not fully monetizing this instrument as that would conflict their company credo - Don't be Evil. Meanwhile our friend the Fed is trying to see if they can screw everything up with upending net neutrality.

    Meanwhile Google - on their way to the business model - Organize the world's information, requires their own platform to innovate at web speed. There is little way you could retain any sort of leadership relying on another group to provide DC services, the feedback loops take too long and provisioning innovation is a long pull with the administrative overhead.
    Jul 31 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: A Nail In The Coffin For The Windows Phone [View article]
    While you may want MSFT to concede defeat in the largest market on the planet, I am glad to see that MSFT management will not. Moving forward the actual phone is a transition point into gaming, wearable's, IoT and just about everything portable that touches the consumer. Note that INTC is not "giving up" on this market despite a market outlook for penetration that recedes into the future much like Fusion
    Jul 9 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VMware And Cisco To Fight It Out In The SDN Arena [View article]
    Massive is relative and so is price vs net cost. My sister needed to move an Ethernet jack from one room to another. I said - "easy" go get a keylock Ethernet block, a modular jack housing then go under the house and drill the appropriate hole and you can move this for about $5 as all the wires are already run. Her response was - I am a trauma nurse and I don't know an Ethernet Jack from a Jill and the last thing I want to do is risk rat and spider bites in a crawlspace under the house - find a drill and muck with the foundation of my house. I'll just pay someone $100 to do it. As I was leaving on a plane that afternoon I could not help but thinking I had just missed out on an easy $50. Too bad I was flying United - they were late again.

    The point is that SDN is not easy. You can do limited things with the emerging tools - but in the early stages of development the technical capability available on staff with most data center operations teams does not lend itself to bringing in an opensource development effort, figuring out how to scale, adapt and manage legacy and new applications - while maintaining the daily cadence of critical production operations. Far better, and in the long run, more cost effective to have architects sit down with a statement of needs and deliverables, define a roadmap and then implement products in a managed migration. At the end of the day, the actual hardware costs are trivial compared to the labor costs for operations personnel, license costs for software and changes to licenses that may result as vendors grapple with automation and virtualization impacts.
    Jun 20 05:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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