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  • Micron And Intel: Occam's Razor  [View article]
    BTW - Your lightspeed calculation is off by a factor of 10. In a mythical all optical fibre some 2500 miles long, the transmission rate is not the 186,000 mps measured for light in vacuum, but 31% less. With each switch node it traverses - additional latency is added to inspect and regenerate a signal, adding up to .5ms. Assuming a piece of fibre 2500 miles long could be created your would be looking at nearly 20ms. Normally you will traverse a dozen or more switches, or "hops" from coast to coast so add in another 6ms for a coast to coast time of 25+ ms in an all optical network with today's limitations. The advent of all optical switching is on the horizon - but as many have already pointed out - your assumptions for timing, ramp and deployment are optimistic. You are discussing events that if focused and invested in as major "moonshot" projects will take 10-15 years, not 5 or 3.
    Feb 3, 2016. 05:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Much More Optimistic On Intel  [View article]
    I too am optimistic about Intel - but not this year. It is due to 3DXP and benefits of Altera integration in 2-3 years than anything likely in 90 days. I find it ironic that for this 24% return (Near 100% annualized gain) you have no stake nor plans to capitalize on this major jump you see coming.

    As a Dow component stock Intel trades in a narrow band relative to general market trends and is more susceptible to global market oscillations than any expected gains from next month's quarterly report, which I expect Bulls to demur over as the large leaps in Data Center Growth to counter PC losses - are less large.
    Sep 23, 2015. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm: Good Entry Point Is Finally Established  [View article]
    Some thought to buy into QCOM over INTC as an entry to play mobile - but with QCOM having the best modem technology in the market and losing the big socket to Samsung's internal efforts and fast followers closing rapidly so that good enough challenges best - the stage is set for a significant collapse as the guidance suggests.
    Jul 23, 2015. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Reported Mobile Losses (Economically) Overstated By $1.2 - $1.5 Billion  [View article]
    "SoFia solves that" in 2015 for 3G - whose market is evaporating, with LTE targeted for 2016. I doubt the 2016 products will find competitors waiting idly for them to arrive. I expect Intel to have an advantage by 2017.

    "Cost. Only Intel's transistor costs are falling. The foundries' costs are rising. Even if the foundries get past #1 and #2 they don't have an answer on cost and price themselves out of the market". Completely agree. Intel has been working to get an integrated SiGe at current nodes since 2004.

    If Intel tablet products are competitive, why the subsidies to buy sockets? Given development cycle of 9-12 months I can be persuaded that I am not seeing their removal on secure sockets for product sold in 2015 and beyond - but moves to obscure these results by placing MCG under PCG belie suggestions a fiscal turn-around is imminent.

    I can see several organizational reasons for combining groups as the PC becomes a mobile device and converging management and communications chains leads to better decision making.
    Nov 26, 2014. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Reported Mobile Losses (Economically) Overstated By $1.2 - $1.5 Billion  [View article]
    There is no choice but for Intel to pursue mobile with all hands on deck. Moore's Law only works as a business model in a market with expanding product demand - and that is not the PC or even PC+Tablet space.

    Intel's challenge is a significant analog IP deficit and despite investments and acquisitions they are still behind the leaders. It is costing to overcome that gap - but as others have noted above, the idea that Intel will be competitive in analog (LTE Modems) with the release of their first product in 2016 - which on paper compares well to what QCOM and others are shipping in 2014 strains credibility.

    When Intel gets to technical parity, it must design for manufacture to get a cost competitive design. Intel's Harmon product was bought by RIMM and was Intel's first million selling mobile radio. But its cost to fabricate needed 4X the stepping of a very advanced CPU, so it was sold to Marvell. I once passed Sean Maloney in the halls at RNB banging his head against the wall begging for analog expertise.

    I am reiterating a point from past posts and supporting the points made by David RG and Retired Securities Analyst that Intel will not be competitive in mobile until 2017 and beyond. And to me, the market appears to have jumped the gun a bit in its anticipation - leaving the door open for disappointment.

    I think today's mobile chip volume will be dwarfed by IoT - which needs cheap modems, ultra low power and price points. As IoT demand grows I see Intel lagging by leveraging entry points that benefit its manufacturing machine mentality instead of opening its toolbox to analyze market needs and build products that reshape tomorrow. They need to learn to "think differently".
    Nov 25, 2014. 11:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Reported Mobile Losses (Economically) Overstated By $1.2 - $1.5 Billion  [View article]
    Do these R&D costs include FAB CapEx or just internal circuit designs, simulation and math for masks to move to 10nm?

    Assuming another $13-15B in 2016 to move to 7nm, and no EUV on the horizon - is Moore's Law still a viable business model in a time of PC and tablet saturation?
    Nov 24, 2014. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard's Break-Up: Value Enhancement, Pricing Game Or Management Hype?  [View article]
    You highlighted the hurdles this deal must surmount to fulfill its promises to analysts and shareholders. I see this as a smoke and mirrors effort to perform an HP "re-virgination". But where are the immaculate hands? As you note, the same hands driving the bus today will drive the mini-vans tomorrow. However - HP "Enterprise" does not have what it needs to be competitive - and we just saw that big HP could not afford EMC. Good luck getting future financial muscle as competitors like Lenovo and Dell go after HP's hardware goose, moving to cost plus pricing and accepting thinner margins - which will hurt HP.

    As HP tries to follow IBM and the path previous CEO Apotheker was fired for, they run the risk of running out of fiscal resources and spending just to stay above water instead of delivering the breakthrough they are promising.

    I hold hope they can revolutionize server design with close coupled multi-TB local memristor memory coupled directly to a CPU complex with optical links to a grid of resources to alter the way big data and large data bases are managed. Can HP deliver this in the same 12-18 months we see similar offerings from Intel? If not, we might be better off with the no growth but solid run-rate from PC's and printers.
    Nov 21, 2014. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Investor Meeting Generates Big News  [View article]
    Agree with txbadonetoo. CapEX spending outpacing revenue gains - a clear sign of the death of Moore's law as a business guideline. Capex to get to the next node is more than the incremental margin gain. Expect Intel to face a dilemma as they ramp to new process levels for advanced PC chips that carry the freight - but have to use n-2 facilities that are fully depreciated to deliver profitable Mobile, Tablet or IoT devices.
    Nov 21, 2014. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Run-Up In Intel Overdone?  [View article]
    Enterprise group sells Xeon CPUs - whose costs are similar to Desktop i7/i5 units - but sell for 10x higher margins. Enterprise gets big margins on 40x LESS VOLUME. Mobile is running hard to sell 40M units, by buying the business for $1B. The fear is that Moore's Law lets ARM advance to the level it breaks in to the DC with a "Good Enough" product to scab off a chunk of front end Xeon servers that would hurt the Intel golden goose.

    What is happening today is good for Intel. The question is how long that continues and how can they maintain momentum. With Intel paying China to buy its tablet CPU ecosystem it remains a big question as to whether that buys any loyalty. Already Google is providing two SW trains, Android for x86 and android for ARM so the arbitrage for tablets shifts to Chinese producers vs Intel the CPU provider. Having sold to China for years with Intel, they are wary of past abuses and relish a chance to hold the whip.
    Nov 20, 2014. 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Run-Up In Intel Overdone?  [View article]
    Don't confuse "cloud" with "Enterprise Data Center" or Supercomputing. The former is to the data center market like the business consumer is to desk tops. They buy cheap to mid-range commodity equipment in volume while the latter are like gamers buying top of the line gear, but at much smaller run rates.

    "Cloud" providers are where the industry is going even as they continue to build out their own data centers - albeit at a slower global rate. Note that Cisco is forecasting for a 9% reduction in investment from service providers as they wring more performance via Software from commodity gear (Amazon, Google, MSFT, FB etc).

    Dana is absolutely correct, providing a 2015 forecast, not describing what is happening right now in Q4 of 2014.

    I blew milk through my nose seeing the Intel "Jewelry Watch" at $495. My wife and daughter both thought that was either an Amazonian wrist shield or neck choker but much too big for a woman's wrist. BTW - they know how to use their smart phone for messages and laughed at the idea they would pay $500 for a pager. They want the Apple iWatch with its health focus. Wait till Black Friday of 2015 and get the Intel watch on a Newegg special for $75, if the phones they work with are still selling.
    Nov 20, 2014. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Believe Bloomberg's Google Rumor  [View article]
    This job solicitation that preaked people's ears was for I/O design - targeting the fabric used to connect a server CPU to the outside world. This is very consistent with coupling an HP "MoonShot" type server complex to external storage and users. Since the MOT acquisition has completed its sale to Lenovo, and Freescale was sold earlier, GOOG probably had little access to HDW design talent of the capability needed to develop a new server platform.

    With HP slicing itself into bite sized pieces and Moore's Law expanding ARM roles ... I rate the rumor that GOOG and FB - two very large server consumers - are seeking x86 alternatives as very credible. I expect it to be a buy rather than build from within, and with HP isolating its server goodies into a concise package, I would look down that path. Expect competition. FB already told analysts it has a robust spending plan for next year.

    If FB can buy WhatsAp for $19B - they may suffer indigestion, but $40B for the Enterprise side of HP is very doable for them and chump change for GOOG.
    Nov 1, 2014. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swan (Dive) Lake: The Continuing Decay Of Hewlett-Packard  [View article]
    Who is being negative? The split is true marketing genius, capitalizes on market hunger for something to shake up the status quo at HP. Only HP is missing key assets to differentiate itself in the current market from competitors - so they will have to leverage themselves to the hilt to get what they need. Meg has not done so well in the past wringing value from "The Big" acquisition - and trying to swallow EMC just to get VMware will create a lot of confusion.

    Frankly I see great similarity to a similar move by AMD in their purchase of ATI. Intel was stuck on their Pentium 4 products and AMD was having great success in both desktops and servers - but could not crack notebooks due its lack of a video solution. So it bought one, ATI, by leveraging the company. AMD's founder, Jerry Sanders was once asked what set AMD apart from the other design houses, and he replied "Real Men have Fabs". As a result of the acquisition, AMD's finances were so precarious it had to sell off its Fabs to "Global Foundries" out of Dubai, turning AMD from Advanced to Arab Micro Devices. Since then AMD has completely lost any traction in servers, and has little relevance outside of low cost. low margin desktop and laptops.

    Splitting into HP Inc and HP Enterprise is genius. What comes next could be ugly.
    Oct 10, 2014. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard, EMC And VMware: It Takes 3 To Tango  [View article]
    Did you read my responses the other day? Meg needs VMW to offer real SDN and differentiate from hard charging Cisco and commoditized IBM/Lenovo. It is clear to me she will again overpay for a SW product (Skype, Autonomy, VMW).

    At $60B it is not too much further to $75 for the whole enchilada. The disruption in the overall market will force many actions (Cisco to buy NetApp) while Meg gets RSA. She can integrate a security paradigm into Enterprise, PC and mobile devices while competitors scramble to roll out "me too" storage products. She also has the option to do another "Split" with EMC just after other vendors have spent a bundle to build out their own storage solutions. There is a huge risk to accelerating future storage commoditization ... thus depreciating the EMC storage asset - but what the heck - that is what HP Inc will be.

    As the Chinese warn....interesting times ahead.
    Oct 9, 2014. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At HP, Don't Buy What The Politician Is Selling  [View article]
    I like Dana's tone - but Meg's marketing addresses core reasons Apotheker got the ax - his " communicate". Meg on the other hand has messaged marvelously. Firing flab (with attendant breakage) to reduce bloated body counts, followed by her re-virgination of HP Enterprise.

    Saddling HP with all of HPQ's debt, (much incurred in the Autonomy debacle) is nothing short of spectacular. With printing clearly fading, add a low margin PC business and suck the otherwise strong printer cash flow into debt service leaving much less capital resource in an evermore competitive business, while in the crosshairs of an aggressive and expansive Lenovo. How does HP compete?

    Then Meg sails off in the good ship Enterprise to leverage the M&A market for a deal with EMC - just to get VMware. After SKYPE and Autonomy - surely third time is the charm and she can avoid another overpayment. Methinks Not.

    Will throw one heck of a Monkey wrench in the market for virtualization and cloud competitors. I will buy VMware, EMC and NetApp. If HP gets EMC, this forces Cisco to the table with NetApp and throws previously independent virtualization markets into a tailspin.

    I will not buy any of that HP stock. I expect it to tank in a hurry after the split - going from 50% of current value to 25% after a quarter or two. The question is how the total valuation fairs, but I bet market timing and excitement around multiple mergers will push valuations for HP Enterprise higher than HP initially falls. So at the end of the day points flow from HP employees to Meg as her comp is based on stock price rise.

    This may give her enough to fund a new all woman ticket for the 2016 presidential race. Meg and fellow HP alum Carly against Hillary.
    Oct 8, 2014. 01:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard Investors Should Cheer The Split  [View article]
    Sure HPQ investors should cheer.

    Just don't get caught holding the HP Inc. bag. Saddled with all of HPQ's debt and in the sights of aggressive Lenovo, HP's opportunity envelope could be severely constrained by competition and servicing a debt load - not of its making.

    Meanwhile, Meg can now jettison the debt taken on to fund the Autonomy purchase while she sails away in the good ship Enterprise and stalks EMC, just to pick up another software property, VMware.

    That said - I see this a better long term opportunity than either of her past purchases, SKYPE while at EBAY then Autonomy. Devil is in how much she overpays. Of all these players I think I like Pat Gelsinger's position.
    Oct 8, 2014. 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment