the_Bird's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/1031/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/163562-growth-vs-value-death-of-a-paradigm?source=feed#comment-693213 693213
More fundamentally, these labels strike me as basically just being code for industry groups; you know that if you buy a "growth" fund, you'll own a lot of technology companies, and a "value" fund will have a lot more banks. If you define "value" based on a P/E or P/B ratio, does it have any real meaning if certain industry groups are ALWAYS represented in the value camp because of the sector's intrinsic characteristics? Not too many "growth" utility stocks.

Don't "growth" and "value" just become labels for certain industries?

What strikes me as inherently MORE interesting (although I have not been able to study this in great detail yet) would be to instead cleave the equity universe into "momentum" versus "contrarian" stocks; stocks that have over a given period of time performed strongly versus those that have done weakly.

Seems like there's a lot of evidence that in the short term, what's worked has tended to keep on working, but over the longer term a contrarian approach may be more profitable. I'd love to see someone really study the interaction between these dynamics.

There obviously would be a lot more turnover, so a momentum-index or contrarian-index fund might be less practical. ]]> Sun, 27 Sep 2009 13:34:38 -0400
More fundamentally, these labels strike me as basically just being code for industry groups; you know that if you buy a "growth" fund, you'll own a lot of technology companies, and a "value" fund will have a lot more banks. If you define "value" based on a P/E or P/B ratio, does it have any real meaning if certain industry groups are ALWAYS represented in the value camp because of the sector's intrinsic characteristics? Not too many "growth" utility stocks.

Don't "growth" and "value" just become labels for certain industries?

What strikes me as inherently MORE interesting (although I have not been able to study this in great detail yet) would be to instead cleave the equity universe into "momentum" versus "contrarian" stocks; stocks that have over a given period of time performed strongly versus those that have done weakly.

Seems like there's a lot of evidence that in the short term, what's worked has tended to keep on working, but over the longer term a contrarian approach may be more profitable. I'd love to see someone really study the interaction between these dynamics.

There obviously would be a lot more turnover, so a momentum-index or contrarian-index fund might be less practical. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152760-weekly-unemployment-claims-continue-to-be-encouraging?source=feed#comment-609539 609539 Fri, 31 Jul 2009 09:36:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130646-genworth-financial-enters-run-off-mode-others-to-follow?source=feed#comment-469472 469472
Note too that the state guarantee funds do set limits on how much they will pay out for claims. It's also possible, I believe, that in the event of GNW's failure and a subsequent takeover of these policies by another insurance company, it's entirely possible that the regulators will allow a premium increase as an inducement for the purchase.

If you can - I'd think about moving, but obviously the dynamic changes if the policy has been in force for a while and/or you've had health conditions that make you less insurable. Don't see a downside to exploring a switch, though.]]> Mon, 20 Apr 2009 09:05:19 -0400
Note too that the state guarantee funds do set limits on how much they will pay out for claims. It's also possible, I believe, that in the event of GNW's failure and a subsequent takeover of these policies by another insurance company, it's entirely possible that the regulators will allow a premium increase as an inducement for the purchase.

If you can - I'd think about moving, but obviously the dynamic changes if the policy has been in force for a while and/or you've had health conditions that make you less insurable. Don't see a downside to exploring a switch, though.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127760-after-aig-which-insurer-is-next-in-line-for-a-federal-handout?source=feed#comment-441056 441056
When looking at the insurance companies, remember that the NAIC calculated capital/equity differently than the shareholders' equity figure that's governed by GAAP. My UNDERSTANDING (and correct me if I'm wrong) is that unrealized losses for most of the portfolio, under GAAP, flow through to the shareholder's equity calc via the comprehensive income line item (even with the impairment not being recognized as permanant). Under the NAIC methodology, it seems that losses on a lot of non-trading assets don't "count" towards the computation of capital.

It was either GNW or HIG that seemed to have a LARGE discrepancy between capital as calced by GAAP and capital as calced by the NAIC guidelines, so that they were claiming to still be "well capitalized" even though that was a complere crock if you looked at the GAAP numbers. ]]> Thu, 26 Mar 2009 11:25:14 -0400
When looking at the insurance companies, remember that the NAIC calculated capital/equity differently than the shareholders' equity figure that's governed by GAAP. My UNDERSTANDING (and correct me if I'm wrong) is that unrealized losses for most of the portfolio, under GAAP, flow through to the shareholder's equity calc via the comprehensive income line item (even with the impairment not being recognized as permanant). Under the NAIC methodology, it seems that losses on a lot of non-trading assets don't "count" towards the computation of capital.

It was either GNW or HIG that seemed to have a LARGE discrepancy between capital as calced by GAAP and capital as calced by the NAIC guidelines, so that they were claiming to still be "well capitalized" even though that was a complere crock if you looked at the GAAP numbers. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/20621?source=feed#comment-440103 440103 Wed, 25 Mar 2009 16:01:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/20621?source=feed#comment-440087 440087 Wed, 25 Mar 2009 15:46:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116452-income-funds-the-audacity-of-hope?source=feed#comment-366264 366264
10% discount's par for the course in CEF-land; many of these "enhanced-income" CEF's were trading at 25%+ discounts for a while a few months back. Most bounced significantly in early January (who says the January effect is dead?)]]> Mon, 26 Jan 2009 08:18:47 -0500
10% discount's par for the course in CEF-land; many of these "enhanced-income" CEF's were trading at 25%+ discounts for a while a few months back. Most bounced significantly in early January (who says the January effect is dead?)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107764-tying-interest-rates-to-cds-is-a-recipe-for-main-street-disaster?source=feed#comment-314422 314422 Tue, 25 Nov 2008 07:44:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106704-my-reconsideration-why-share-buybacks-are-pointless?source=feed#comment-310632 310632
I'm a fan of cleanliness. Give me cash in my pocket. Give senior execs a fair amount of compensation, but make that transparent. Don't use buybacks to cloud the effect of exactly how much is being spent.

So, yeah, neither good nor bad, inherently - but subject to abuse. ]]> Thu, 20 Nov 2008 07:53:32 -0500
I'm a fan of cleanliness. Give me cash in my pocket. Give senior execs a fair amount of compensation, but make that transparent. Don't use buybacks to cloud the effect of exactly how much is being spent.

So, yeah, neither good nor bad, inherently - but subject to abuse. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106704-my-reconsideration-why-share-buybacks-are-pointless?source=feed#comment-310086 310086 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 13:48:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68032-spitzer-self-destruction?source=feed#comment-125258 125258 Tue, 11 Mar 2008 15:57:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66752-some-muni-bonds-appear-screaming-buys-here?source=feed#comment-121709 121709
Unless the market thinks overnight rates are going to 50bp in the next year, T-rates as low as they are is purely a panic move. Everyone wants Treasuries, nothing else, because they are scared sh*tless of holding paper that they might have trouble getting a bid on in a few months. It's ALL about liquidity today.]]> Mon, 03 Mar 2008 18:13:05 -0500
Unless the market thinks overnight rates are going to 50bp in the next year, T-rates as low as they are is purely a panic move. Everyone wants Treasuries, nothing else, because they are scared sh*tless of holding paper that they might have trouble getting a bid on in a few months. It's ALL about liquidity today.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/59945-sears-holdings-true-value?source=feed#comment-110468 110468
So, you've got a crappy retailer (if you've got a clean, well-stocked Sears store, I guess that makes one of us)... with a continued, long-term decline in same-store sales... in an environment that's likely going to see continued deterioration in overall retail sales... with another potential time bomb waiting of credit card receivables (my opinion, the "new subprime" for 2008)... with real estate holdings that are no longer appreciating in value... and deteriorating brand quality....

What's the bull case again?]]> Tue, 15 Jan 2008 09:02:25 -0500
So, you've got a crappy retailer (if you've got a clean, well-stocked Sears store, I guess that makes one of us)... with a continued, long-term decline in same-store sales... in an environment that's likely going to see continued deterioration in overall retail sales... with another potential time bomb waiting of credit card receivables (my opinion, the "new subprime" for 2008)... with real estate holdings that are no longer appreciating in value... and deteriorating brand quality....

What's the bull case again?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/60221-sears-lampert-how-much-trouble-is-the-next-warren-buffett-in?source=feed#comment-110463 110463 Tue, 15 Jan 2008 08:55:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59802-the-real-story-on-countrywide-fed-behind-the-deal?source=feed#comment-109625 109625 Fri, 11 Jan 2008 09:29:44 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/51545-no-point-in-bottom-fishing-the-homebuilders?source=feed#comment-100525 100525
So yeah - homebuilders will have little rallies, mostly short-covering. There are a handful of stocks out there I've found where 80% - 90% of the float has been sold short; there's some real short-term danger there, SPF rallying from $3.71 to $5.72 in a week and a half looks like a classic squeeze. But - there's a lot of these companies that you'll never have to cover (if you can find any shares to short!)]]> Thu, 01 Nov 2007 09:15:46 -0400
So yeah - homebuilders will have little rallies, mostly short-covering. There are a handful of stocks out there I've found where 80% - 90% of the float has been sold short; there's some real short-term danger there, SPF rallying from $3.71 to $5.72 in a week and a half looks like a classic squeeze. But - there's a lot of these companies that you'll never have to cover (if you can find any shares to short!)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48294-gold-has-more-to-run-whatever-the-benchmark?source=feed#comment-96987 96987
The gold that someone bought and put in a vault thirty years ago is the exact same gold that's sitting in that vault today; General Electic obviously is not. There's just no logical relationship between those two values.]]> Thu, 27 Sep 2007 09:29:23 -0400
The gold that someone bought and put in a vault thirty years ago is the exact same gold that's sitting in that vault today; General Electic obviously is not. There's just no logical relationship between those two values.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/47853-the-scandal-of-options-backdating?source=feed#comment-96535 96535 Fri, 21 Sep 2007 09:13:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/47541-the-oil-scam-driving-crude-over-80?source=feed#comment-96350 96350 Wed, 19 Sep 2007 10:39:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/45622-welcome-to-the-new-seeking-alpha?source=feed#comment-94726 94726 Wed, 29 Aug 2007 11:53:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/45622-welcome-to-the-new-seeking-alpha?source=feed#comment-94719 94719
One area where it could stand some improvement, however, is with the comments. Under "My Seeking Alpha," I would love to have the option to see comments that I have posted, and ideally if there have been additional responses after the fact. Anything to help build a community, I know there are tons and tons of smart people around here, being able to debate and kick ideas around would take this site to a different level.
]]> Wed, 29 Aug 2007 11:02:50 -0400
One area where it could stand some improvement, however, is with the comments. Under "My Seeking Alpha," I would love to have the option to see comments that I have posted, and ideally if there have been additional responses after the fact. Anything to help build a community, I know there are tons and tons of smart people around here, being able to debate and kick ideas around would take this site to a different level.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/45689-bill-gross-wants-a-pimco-bailout?source=feed#comment-94593 94593
The fund's medicore three-year record also bests 82% of all its intermediate-bond fund peers, so I guess all bond funds are worthless, right? I mean, even the best bond funds didn't beat the money market rate over this particular three year period, so they're worthless, eh?]]> Mon, 27 Aug 2007 13:04:54 -0400
The fund's medicore three-year record also bests 82% of all its intermediate-bond fund peers, so I guess all bond funds are worthless, right? I mean, even the best bond funds didn't beat the money market rate over this particular three year period, so they're worthless, eh?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/39533-is-google-the-next-aol?source=feed#comment-89820 89820 Wed, 27 Jun 2007 15:31:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/37555-prudential-exits-research-a-boost-for-independents?source=feed#comment-87897 87897 Wed, 06 Jun 2007 16:11:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/33149-american-express-watch-the-dividend?source=feed#comment-84835 84835 Tue, 24 Apr 2007 09:48:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/26577-whole-foods-how-many-health-nuts-in-boise?source=feed#comment-81305 81305 Fri, 09 Feb 2007 17:27:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/24977-crocs-ugly-but-appealing?source=feed#comment-80893 80893 Thu, 01 Feb 2007 08:57:31 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/20725-zune-is-doa-sansa-anyone?source=feed#comment-75059 75059 Thu, 16 Nov 2006 09:46:22 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/13438-new-toyota-sports-car-to-compete-with-ferrari-porsche-but-where-s-the-soul?source=feed#comment-52827 52827 Wed, 12 Jul 2006 09:09:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/12573-microsoft-the-wealth-creation-champion?source=feed#comment-52494 52494
I'm not sure what the point of the article was. Microsoft stock was a phe-freakin'-nomenal investment through 2000. We know that. What's the point?]]> Mon, 26 Jun 2006 14:47:14 -0400
I'm not sure what the point of the article was. Microsoft stock was a phe-freakin'-nomenal investment through 2000. We know that. What's the point?]]>